Hurricane Dean

[crimsone]

...to be honest though KW, even if there is a well timed EWRC, it's not really going to save them... the bottom line is that if Dean makes a direct hit on Jamaica, it'll be devastating. If the hit isn't direct, it will still be very nasty.

[kold weather]

Your right an EWRC won't save Jamaica from a utterly stunning hurricane however there will be a differenc eif Dean comes in as a 160-165mph cvat-5 then if it came in at 140-145mph, granted both would cause extreme damage but every little will help, though the bottom line is that even if the system directly misses the N/S eyewall will almost certainly strike the island and we'd be looking at some very extreme damage either way.

Dean certainly going for a run to cat-5 based on the last 2hrs of Sat.imagery, don't be surprised if recon finds winds high enough for support upgrade in the next 3hrs so heads up!

Edited August 18, 2007 by kold weather

[Paranoid]

Have you got any links to those Sat pictures Kold?

[January Snowstorm]

Thanks for all the updates guys.

What time is the hurricane projected to hit Jamaica?? And also can someone post the latest sat picture?

[Gray-Wolf]

Do you think the tour operators will take holidaymakers off the resorts in the firing line over the next 12hrs or are we due a lot of scary holiday vids come the arrival of the media after Deans departure???

[kold weather]

There you go, though note that the IR will be the best to use now it is getting dark over there:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

GW-I think if they were to try and do that they'd have a hard job, Dean is rapidly heading their way and condtions will start to go down hill as early as tomorrow morning, I honestly don't think they'll have time to get everyone off and so probably won't bother. Needless to say though no flights will go there now.

[Cookie]

great updates guys. keep up the great work.

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Haiti

probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours

Jamaica

probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 33 hours

probability for TS is 95% in about 33 hours

the Dominican Republic

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 100% in about 21 hours

the Cayman Islands

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 85% in about 45 hours

[crimsone]

I think there'll be a few scary holiday vids whatever happens GW... perhaps a few to be found posthumously

Ivan played hell with Jamaica.... if I recall the flooding situation from it was pretty serious... Dean is in a different league.

The last HDObs from recon listed on the NHC site were heading in a south westerly direction from DM/Haiti about 2308z... hopefully we'll get some more soon, and hopefully they will be useful ones... there's also an intermediate advisory due out within the next half hour or so.

edit: 23:18:00Z = 1001.2 mb... they're getting close(ish).

Edited August 18, 2007 by crimsone

[kold weather]

Recon already found 95kts at flight level which is pretty decent given the planes are still not close to the eyewall yet, they are heading in for the first pass into the eyewall, if winds are at 95kts already then winds are going to be a good deal higher then that I'd guess.

Edited August 18, 2007 by kold weather

[crimsone]

they've just twice found flight level winds of 101 kt, and still not near the eyewall...

Edited August 18, 2007 by crimsone

[Cookie]

this link may be usefull for anyone else who like me hates knots and prefers mph!

http://www.disastercenter.com/convert.htm

[crimsone]

1 hour ago... these are just beautiful!

recon just repeatedly gave an extrapolated pressure of 918 mb finding 116 kt flight level winds from the ENE

Edited August 18, 2007 by crimsone

[Paranoid]

Not surprised if it is 918mbar. Dean looks very similar to Cyclone Monica in appearance at the moment

[Somerset Squall]

Not surprised if it is 918mbar. Dean looks very similar to Cyclone Monica in appearance at the moment

I can see the resemblance, and Monica got down to 879mb (with dvorak estimate report being 869mb- which would have been a world record if it was proved). I'm not saying the same will happen to Dean, but it's interesting nonetheless.

[Paranoid]

Was it that low? I thought Monica got down to 905mbar, at least that's what wikipedia says.

[Somerset Squall]

Was it that low? I thought Monica got down to 905mbar, at least that's what wikipedia says.

That's where I was looking. It certainly rivaled Typhoon Tip (which currently holds the record).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Monica

Anyway, back to Dean.

[Paranoid]

Any more news from the Recon?

[crimsone]

Any more news from the Recon?

They appear to have passed back out of the eye, but didn't find any impressive windspeeds on the other side from what I could see. I'm waiting for their next transmission and hopefully we'll get a vortex message soon too.

The intermediate advisory is out, and the NHC seem to have maintained 130 kt, but dropped the pressure to 920 mb.

edit: Recon have just this moment turned for their second pass by the look of it.

Edited August 19, 2007 by crimsone

[Calrissian]

Good morning all...

Tis the best hurricane show that I know of....

http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.asx (should open with windows media player)

Jim is off and running for a couple of hours now.

----

Meanwhile, Dean has now collapsed down to 920mb, behold the power of this storm, and it is still yet to enter the really hot waters.

Calrissian: a fan of Mr Williams, BAMM, and the GFDL

Jamaica residents

[crimsone]

(...they hadn't turned around.. I pre-empted them. lol) A vortex messsage has just arrived... or rather, the NHC have just made it public...

000

URNT12 KNHC 190000

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007

A. 18/23:37:50Z

B. 16 deg 01 min N

070 deg 53 min W

C. 700 mb 2382 m

D. 102 kt

E. 011 deg 005 nm

F. 105 deg 118 kt

G. 013 deg 006 nm

H. EXTRAP 920 mb

I. 15 C/ 3047 m

J. 16 C/ 3024 m

K. 15 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. CO

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 06

MAX FL WIND 118 KT N QUAD 23:36:00 Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

MET ACCURACY 1NM

Edited August 19, 2007 by crimsone

[Calrissian]

see the Dvorak loop...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-bd.html

Notice how finally the Dom' Republic is kinda just swaying the storm back to the south, a little. Dare I suggest the storm is just being gently reflected back south...and remaining over the energy giving warm sea.

What a day ahead of Jamaica. Truly apocalyptic effects loom for Jamaica if that core does indeed cross over a large chunk of this island.

Calrissian: watching the amazing events.

[Cookie]

this could be a very intresting 24hrs

[crimsone]

I think it's going to be very interesting... at the moment though, what really interests me is that the pressure has dropped, and the NHC have maintained 130 kt, but recon so far have found no speeds of the sort... and currently report surface winds of only about 105 kt.

The eye characteristics are given as concentric though, so we could be seeing the often mentioned EWRC underway?

[Paranoid]

If it is an EWRC then it might spare Jamaica a little trouble. 25mph can make quite a bit of difference.

[rc28]

Good morning all...

Tis the best hurricane show that I know of....

http://www.hurricanecity.com/live.asx (should open with windows media player)

Jim is off and running for a couple of hours now.

----

Thanks for the link, watching it now. Out of interest who runs that site, do they stream through the night? They're talking a lot of sense about how the jamaican people don't seem to realise the threat they face from Dean because their media isn't getting fussed about it