Hurricane Dean

[Iceberg]

Final recon, Vortex message now release.

ERC has completed and the eye is closed and circular, healthy eye with good temp differential.

110Kt winds at surface (recorded!) making him a high end CAT 3 at present.

Intensification has NOT finished.

URNT12 KNHC 171740

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007

A. 17/17:17:00Z

B. 14 deg 46 min N

063 deg 16 min W

C. NA mb 2763 m

D. 110 kt

E. 011 deg 010 nm

F. 107 deg 124 kt

G. 011 deg 011 nm

H. 966 mb

I. 7 C/ 3046 m

J. 19 C/ 3040 m

K. 9 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C17

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF304 0404A DEAN OB 28

MAX FL WIND 124 KT N QUAD 17:13:30 Z

Updated advisory.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE

INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS STRENGTHENED. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS

ARE NOW 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A MAJOR

CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Dean is now officially a high end CAT 3.

Edited August 17, 2007 by Iceberg

[rc28]

For anyone interested in following Dean;

http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headli...&traveler=0

Is it looking more likely now that it will hit texas? They really don't need any more rain this Summer, especially after TS Erin.

[Iceberg]

A long way off Yet and take it with a pinch of salt but GFDL hits New orleans with a CAT 5.

HW would hit Galveston with a CAT 5 again on the 12Z run.

I agree RC a TX, LA hit seems to be around 60-70% on at the moment with a min CAT 4, most likely a 5.

Edited August 17, 2007 by Iceberg

[Keepster]

Forget the States for a bit guys, this could obliterate Jamaica.

All the people on the island need to start moving to higher ground immediately and ensure they are as best protected from the winds as possible.

[Iceberg]

Latest paths show a chance of Jamaica keeping to the softer south side of Dean, even this though would be very bad. Hopefully people will pay attention to how strong Dean is.

Also worth saying that Cuba looks like it *could* be hit.

Jamaica has a population of 2.6m people, it is also British so should the METO be issuing a severe Hurricane watch! ?.

Edited August 17, 2007 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

About time for a new pic since you can see the eye now, also Deans fantastic outflow and banding.

[Cookie]

great pic mate

[Gray-Wolf]

He's heading into some potentially augmenting conditions! If Meto's plots are right then he may well clip NW Cuba and then be free in the gulf proper. I think tomorrow will show us what kind of a problem Dean may well pose.

Katrina's year seemed to have a few 'canes that sloughed through the caribbean (and took out some 5* hotels on the Yukatan peninsula) before she 'threaded the needle' into the gulf.

Any storm making it into the southern Gulf poses both the problem of track and intensity. More than ever I fear the global chaos the interuption to oil production/distillation would bring this late summer (bad winter a comin').

[Iceberg]

Thanks Cookie.

To true GW Houston/Galveston would be a real blow to the US oil industry.

FWIW Dean is improving even more on Sat and I am sure is now a CAT 4. No recon though atm to find out.

[SMU]

Thanks Cookie.

To true GW Houston/Galveston would be a real blow to the US oil industry.

FWIW Dean is improving even more on Sat and I am sure is now a CAT 4. No recon though atm to find out.

Iceberg- i think youve got a little excitable there- Cat 4-- Not yet-

next advisory Publically available in the next hour- Probably minimal central pressure around 955 Mb -

& Classification may be Cat 3-

S

[Iceberg]

It's already a high end CAT 3 Steve in the last advisory only a few extra Kt to make a 4.

I agree though that NHC will stay with recon and without the extra recon will take a lower figure.

[Paranoid]

Which recon are we waiting for, at the risk of sounding incredibly dense?

Edited August 17, 2007 by Paranoid

[SMU]

It's already a high end CAT 3 Steve in the last advisory only a few extra Kt to make a 4.

I agree though that NHC will stay with recon and without the extra recon will take a lower figure.

Sportsmans bet- Still a cat 3 on the next advisory...

S

[Iceberg]

No new recon so they've stayed with it.

[SMU]

No new recon so they've stayed with it.

tmoz mate.....

the track is still the key to 5 status...

S

[SMU]

tmoz mate.....

the track is still the key to 5 status...

S

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

looks like we might have a decent eye in the next few hours.....

S

[dvdfjojo]

Latest paths show a chance of Jamaica keeping to the softer south side of Dean, even this though would be very bad. Hopefully people will pay attention to how strong Dean is.

Also worth saying that Cuba looks like it *could* be hit.

Jamaica has a population of 2.6m people, it is also British so should the METO be issuing a severe Hurricane watch! ?.

Every new track seems to show Jamaica taking more of a direct hit from Dean and with the intensifcation predicted with nothing to slow it down/weaken it over the next 36 hours, it's terrifying. This looks like it may be cat 4/cat 5 with the centre passing directly over the island - God only knows what that will do to the place, it doesn't bear thinking about. This is awful.

[stormchaser1]

Hurricane-3 DEAN (13-17 AUG)

Storm - Max Winds: 110 Min Pres: 961 Category: 3

Current - Max Winds: 110 Min Pres: 961 Category: 3

HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007

2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS

DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER

TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN

ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING

ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST

KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE

WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF

THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN

REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CABO

BEATA TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR

HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A

HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY

WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE

PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL

STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY

WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE AND

DOMINICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.

LUCIA...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING

THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 64.5W AT 17/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB

EYE DIAMETER 15 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.

50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

34 KT.......160NE 120SE 60SW 160NW.

12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Thanks to

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2007/index.html

Nigel

[Cookie]

on one hand its tottally horrific whats going to happen in jamica and other places. but i abouslt aura at the sheer beauty and the power of the thing!

[Gray-Wolf]

That's the horrible side of being 'pulled' to them!!!! You either get the U.S. with a semi planned 'plan B' or some poor S.O.B's in a tin hut.

Awesome to witness, devastating to be in.

[Somerset Squall]

Unisys are saying it's a cat 4 with min pressure of 946mb. That an error isn't it? I don't see this elsewhere.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2007/index.html

Nope, seems not- we now have cat 4!

HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A...CORRECTED

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007

800 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...CORRECTED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED TO 135 MPH...

...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AS ITS CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF

THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

Edited August 18, 2007 by Somerset Squall

[Calrissian]

Dean is headed for a fast Cat'5 status by sometime Saturday.

Most important of all, Dean is slowing, and despite what the majority of the models suggest, I'd guess Dean will be making a slow turn northwards by Sunday.

After a very dead start to the season, looks like things are now really ramping up (with the African wave train now up and running).

[summer blizzard]

000

WTNT44 KNHC 172043

TCDAT4

HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007

500 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EARLIER TODAY

INDICATED THAT DEAN REACHED 110 KNOTS. NEXT PLANE IS EXPECTED TO

REACH DEAN AROUND 00 UTC TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW

AN EYE FEATURE...NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS

WHICH ARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH THE

POSSIBILITY OF SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL

REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST

TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASES WESTWARD. THIS

WOULD CALL FOR AN OVERALL UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. THIS IS

SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS....GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE

STEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE

SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW

OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST

TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS

PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN DEAN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON A GENERAL

WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF

MEXICO. THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME

WESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS

OUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE

OUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK

HISTORY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS

ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE

THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN

SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF

DEAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.0N 64.5W 110 KT

12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 67.4W 115 KT

24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.4N 70.8W 120 KT

36HR VT 19/0600Z 17.3N 74.0W 125 KT

48HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 77.0W 130 KT

72HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 84.0W 130 KT

96HR VT 21/1800Z 22.0N 90.0W 100 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 22/1800Z 24.5N 96.0W 105 KT

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

150mph expected, strong category 4.

[crimsone]

000

WTNT44 KNHC 180305

TCDAT4

HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20...CORRECTED

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007

1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

...CORRECTED ERRONEOUS INDICATOR OF INLAND AT 96 HOURS IN TABLE...

DEAN HAS BEEN STEADILY INTENSIFYING TONIGHT. THE U.S. AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL

WINDS OF 138 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 124 KT AT THE SURFACE. IN

ADDITION...THE AIRCRAFT IS EQUIPPED WITH THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY

MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WHICH MEASURED WINDS AS STRONG AS 123 KT THIS

EVENING. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN

DROPPING...WITH THE LATEST AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENT BEING 937 MB. THE

ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT...WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THE

STORM HAS BECOME A GOOD BIT LARGER...AND WIND RADII HAVE BEEN

EXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS. DEAN MIGHT ALSO HAVE A CLOSE ENCOUNTER

WITH NOAA BUOY 42059...LESS THAN 100 N MI DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE

CENTER OF THE HURRICANE...IN A FEW HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN

BEFORE. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AND

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS ON A TRACK TOWARD

THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS NOTABLY

DISAGREE AND HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH...INCLUDING

THE NORTHERN OUTLYING GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HOWEVER...HAS

NOT CHANGED NOTICEABLY...SINCE THE MODELS MIGHT SHIFT BACK THE

OTHER WAY. THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODELS AT DAYS FOUR AND

FIVE IS INDICATIVE OF THE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES TYPICAL OF THOSE

LONGER FORECAST RANGES. THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TEXT AND

GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE ALSO REFLECT

THESE UNCERTAINTIES. THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE

SIMILAR AT EACH LOCATION ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN AND NORTHERN

COASTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DIFFERENTIATE

THE RISK OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.

THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF DEAN...GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR AND WARM WATERS

AHEAD...WILL LIKELY BE CONTROLLED BY INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES

AND/OR BRIEF INTERACTIONS WITH LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS

FOR AN INTENSITY NEAR THE CATEGORY 4/5 THRESHOLD THROUGH 72

HOURS...AND IS ONLY LOWERED ON DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO POTENTIAL

PASSAGE OVER YUCATAN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 14.9N 65.9W 125 KT

12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 68.4W 130 KT

24HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.7W 135 KT

36HR VT 19/1200Z 17.3N 75.0W 135 KT

48HR VT 20/0000Z 18.2N 78.4W 135 KT

72HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 85.5W 140 KT

96HR VT 22/0000Z 22.5N 91.5W 110 KT

120HR VT 23/0000Z 25.0N 97.5W 110 KT...NEAR COAST OF MEXICO

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[crimsone]

...just a couple of images to start the morning... the sattelite seems to have switched to it's nightvision (as you'd expect!), but even this image is impressive.