Major Hurricane Felix

[Iceberg]

The eye is now clearing (further sign of strengthening).

Current track is north of the NHC track guidance.

Thanks Cookie, He's a very picturesque cane.

Edited September 2, 2007 by Iceberg

[Iceberg]

Latest NHC advisory, with a slight northward movement of the track.

FELIX IS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A SYMMETRIC-APPEARING CLOUD

STRUCTURE AND STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW. THE EYE IS

BECOMING WELL-DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THE CURACAO RADAR IS

SHOWING A RATHER CLASSIC PRESENTATION...WITH THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL

PASSING WELL NORTH OF ARUBA. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT EYE

PENETRATIONS BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BUT BASED ON THE

INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS

ADJUSTED...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...TO 90 KT. THE HURRICANE IS

FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN EXTREMELY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND

TO MOVE OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.

THEREFORE I SEE NO REASON WHY FELIX WILL NOT BECOME A MAJOR

HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST

IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LOGISTIC GROWTH EQUATION MODEL...LGEM...

VERSION OF SHIPS AND CALLS FOR CAT. 4 INTENSITY WITHING 36 HOURS.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN

VERY BULLISH ON THE STRENGTHENING OF FELIX SO FAR.

[Iceberg]

The below is a classic Major cane (CAT3+) IMO it's impressive on all fronts. I'd probably unconservatively put Felix at between 95-100Kt hopefully we will find out when real recon goes in. It's not upto CAT 4 yet it still needs to tighten up for that and get a better eye definition but it's certainly getting there.

[tinybill]

Doing a bit of digging it's using the NHC plot rather than model plots.

I agree a southward shift is probably likely.

Eye looks fantastic on Doppler atm and a CAT 3 this afternoon looks very likely. Sub 980 pressure I would hazard is there as well. Winds should still be reponding too.

just looked at the wave model program not showing felix any were but it showing a another possible hurricane leaving the africa coast at 144 hr

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=natla_height13

[Cookie]

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Aruba

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% currently

probability for TS is 90% currently

Colombia

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 80% within 9 hours

Venezuela

probability for TS is 75% currently

the Netherlands Antilles

probability for TS is 70% currently

Honduras

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

Nicaragua

probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 45 hours

probability for TS is 55% in about 45 hours

[Iceberg]

His eye is really consolidating now and he is seriously winding up. CAT 4 not far off IMO.

Recon is currently on it's way so not too long too wait now.

[Paranoid]

Looks almost as well defined as Dean did. Very impressive sat image.

[The PIT]

Very Rapid development what chances for cat5 then???

[SnowBear]

I personally think the chances of a Cat5 for H.Felix are very good. Look at the intensification over the last 24 hours or so, I would say it could even be a Cat5 sooner rather than later than we think too.

Track? I still think northern Yucatan or coast skimming by.

[Paranoid]

Still, we were constantly saying how Dean would be category 5 soon, but he only became Cat 5 shortly before landfall. Although i'm not sure if Dean intensified this quickly.

[SnowBear]

H.Felix has intensified quicker than H.Dean I am sure, and a lot sooner in its track too I think. H.Dean had some shear etc it was battling this early on, and didn't get truly clear of it until a little bit before Jamaica.

[Paranoid]

True, the shear was quite strong with Dean. Still, there's always a chance of an EWRC with Felix.

[MAF]

latest from NOAA

.............

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND FELIX COULD BECOME A MAJOR

HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY ON MONDAY......................

[kold weather]

Yeah chances for Felix reachuing cat-5 look very good. As expected Felix has rapidly developed in extremely favorable condtions. Right now Felix looks every bit as good as Dean as a cat-4, it could well be the case felix has 130-140mph already IMO and the eye has cleared out extremely nicely. Convection is still very deep around the eyewall and it has all the signs of becoming cat-5 IMO given the set-up it has, outflow is awesozme, convection is deeper then at most points of Dean's life right now. Recon wil lfind out its strength but don't be surprised if its higher then current estimates...short term Felix could well get close to cat-5 tomorrow morning.

The main issue that could stop cat-5 will be a long protracted EWRC but even if it does start it once it gets into the amazing heat content in the W.Caribbean we could see the same thing that Dean done and finish an EWRC in quick time and deepen. its all about timing but either way Felix WILL be a 150-180mph hurricane IMO and a cat-5 is a real possiblity with this.

Short term track still looks pretty much 275-280 towards the GOH wit hthe S.eyewall grazing honduras which could be a utter disaster and a very powerful cat-4/5 hit on Belize would cause even more death and damage than Dean even if it comes in weaker. My system i'm using as a reference for the last few days, Edith came in as a cat-5. after that and its a little more uncertain as it all depends on how fast an upper trough decides to move out, if it sticks around longer and further east then there is a greater chance of a Texas hit. Its still no all that likely IMO but a NW motion after Felix first landfall appears quite possible.

(ps, Dean was a cat-4 further east then Felix.)

Edited September 2, 2007 by kold weather

[Iceberg]

Agree with all the above Kold. A Belize boarder hit sparing Belize city looks a little more lightly than earlier today,

Recon is almost there and is measuring hurricane force flight winds with the pressure still above 1000mb.

Next 20 mins will reveal Felix's true strength.

172100 1332N 07046W 6967 03011 9918 +070 +070 131109 114 999 999 05

172130 1331N 07047W 6970 02958 9859 +074 +074 137118 122 999 999 05

172200 1330N 07049W 6968 02904 9777 +088 +088 128111 117 999 999 05

122Kt flight winds meaning around 110Kt surface or a boarderline CAT 4

minimum pressure so far or 964.

The above will not be the maximum though this is just the first pass.

[kold weather]

Recon just taken its first pass through the inner core of Felix, found central pressure of 960mbs with peak flight level winds of 122kts which probably equates to between 120-125mph so no doubts that Felix is a cat-3 right now, the next question is just how close is Felix to cat-4, i still suspect 130-140mph likely in the inner core of Felix.

for what its worth Felix has gone from Td to cat-3 (at least) in about 36hrs, that is amazing deepening and must rank up there with some of the all time fastest developers I'd have thought. not every day tyou see a system develop so quickly, its a tribute to just how favorable tyhe upper atmopshere is currently.

Edited September 2, 2007 by kold weather

[SnowBear]

Just to remind you folks for Caribbean storms and hurricanes, often this is a good site to keep an eye on for reports, pictures etc.

http://stormcarib.com/

[Iceberg]

A good range of 100+ Kt flight winds in the south eye wall as well which shows a very strong eye.

172930 1327N 07107W 6962 02901 9741 +108 +108 032099 108 999 999 03

173000 1328N 07108W 6969 02929 9807 +088 +088 035104 109 999 999 03

173030 1329N 07109W 6968 02962 9854 +078 +078 041104 107 999 999 03

173100 1330N 07110W 6968 02991 9846 +110 +102 039106 107 999 999 03

173130 1331N 07111W 6965 03020 9889 +098 +098 042099 102 999 999 03

[Roger J Smith]

This one could easily take a more northerly turn and head north around 87-92 W in a week's time, threatening the Gulf coast somewhere between Mobile and central Texas by about Sunday 9th ... reason has to do with northern max timing and breakdown of resistant upper ridge around 6th-7th allowing Felix to round the subtropical high and head north rather than west eventually.

[SnowBear]

Just as a point of interest, on the matter of rapid deepening, in 2005 Wilma dropped a massive 53mb in 6 hours, and from 981mb to 882mb in 24 hours. (Corrected)

T.Forrest possibly holds the record for the fastest deepening of all typhoons and hurricanes, 100mb (976mb to 876mb) in just under 24 hours. It must be noted that this data though is open to question.

Source: Wikipedia

Edit: Will just add to this post, Wilma also holds the record for the deepest pressure found in the Atlantic, 882mb. Source: NOAA

Edited September 2, 2007 by SnowBear

[kold weather]

By the way the 12z GFDL has shifted WAY south, heads WSW after first landflal int othe Pacific, mind you that run has to be some sort of outlier in terms of the rest of the model guidence.

Roger, IMO any weakness that is formed won't be nearly enough to send it as far north as you rekcon, the ridge is still very strong east of 90W and while the upper trough does form a possible NW motion once around the longitude you mention, it would have to head pretty much due north which would be somewhat unlikely in the current set-up. However given the chance of a more NW motion around 3-5 days time Texas may need to keep a small eye on Felix though even then I think a Mexico hit is still be far the most likely second landfall site.

[SMU]

Just as a point of interest, on the matter of rapid deepening, in 2005 Wilma dropped a massive 53mb in 6 hours, from 981mb to 882mb.

T.Forrest possibly holds the record for the fastest deepening of all typhoons and hurricanes, 100mb (976mb to 876mb) in just under 24 hours. It must be noted that this data though is open to question.

Snowbear your drop indicates 99Mb for wilma...-????

Steve

[kold weather]

BULLETIN

HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007

200 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND

CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36

HOURS.

AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS

DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE ISLANDS OF

ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD

CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED

BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 13.4

NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT 490 MILES...790 KM...SOUTHEAST

OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...

AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205

KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON

THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...

AND FELIX COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT

DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115

MILES...185 KM.

THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL

PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH

POSSIBLE MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE NETHERLANDS

ANTILLES...THE PARAGUANA PENINSULA OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND

THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...13.4 N...71.2 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

500 PM AST.

$

FORECASTER PASC

(NOTE Felix's very small inner core of hurricane winds, just 15NM in radius, small inner core condusive for rapid strengthening as we are seeing now, small inner core also raises chances of cat-5)

Edited September 2, 2007 by kold weather

[SnowBear]

See what you mean about the GFDL, its gone completely against the grain. Hmmm, has it picked up something we and the other models hasn't yet. One to watch just in case. I tend to agree its an outlier.

[Iceberg]

Vortex for conclusion.

000

URNT12 KNHC 021746

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 02/17:24:40Z

B. 13 deg 22 min N

070 deg 57 min W

C. 700 mb 2777 m

D. 120 kt

E. 46 deg 010 nm

F. 138 deg 122 kt

G. 048 deg 013 nm

H. 964 mb

I. 8 C/ 3048 m

J. 16 C/ 3043 m

K. 14 C/ NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C20

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF305 0806A FELIX OB 05

MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 17:21:10 Z

SFC CNTR 050/07 NM FROM FL CNTR

6 mph short of a CAT 4 (So FAR !)