Major Hurricane Felix

[SnowBear]

RGB and visible still showing a pinhole eye, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ir4.jpg

We've seen this before, it tightens up, and away it goes again even stronger

Uncertainty at the NHC as well, this one, is just a wait and see I think, as unpredictable as they get..

000

WTNT41 KNHC 031433

TCDAT1

HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 13

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007

1100 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTED SOME WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS WHICH COULD

BE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHT WEAKENING. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE

MEASURED 162 KT WINDS AROUND 11Z WHICH WOULD STILL SUPPORT 145 KT

AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER SUBSEQUENT TO THAT OBSERVATION THE CENTRAL

PRESSURE HAS RISEN A BIT AND THE EYE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED ON

VISUAL IMAGERY. SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD

SLIGHTLY...TO 140 KT. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER CORE

PROCESSES ARE TYPICAL IN INTENSE HURRICANES. THERE HAS NOT BEEN

MUCH EVIDENCE OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OR AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT THUS

FAR BUT SUCH AN EVENT COULD OCCUR...AND IT WOULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE

ON THE INTENSITY OF FELIX. HOWEVER THESE EYEWALL CYCLES ARE

DIFFICULT TO TIME OR TO PREDICT. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT... IN

TERMS OF WIND SHEAR AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...SHOULD REMAIN

CONDUCIVE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF CAT 4/5 INTENSITY UNTIL INTERACTION

WITH LAND. THE FORECAST INTENSITY AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND IS HIGHLY

UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER WITH

RESPECT TO THE LAND MASS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO. CLEARLY IF

FELIX MOVES MORE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR FORECAST IT WILL REMAIN

STRONGER AND IF IT MOVES TO THE LEFT OF THE NHC TRACK IT WOULD BE

MUCH WEAKER. INDEED...IF THE CYCLONE FAILS TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY

OF CAMPECHE...IT COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD.

LATEST FIXES SHOW THAT THE FAST WESTWARD MOTION...280/18...

CONTINUES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST AND SYNOPTIC REASONING ARE

BASICALLY UNCHANGED. GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST FIELDS MAINTAIN

SUFFICIENT MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SO

THAT...IF THESE FORECASTS VERIFY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE

UNABLE TO GAIN MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL

TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE

MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN

NICARAGUA.

DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A BIT

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 14.3N 77.8W 140 KT

12HR VT 04/0000Z 14.6N 80.4W 150 KT

24HR VT 04/1200Z 15.1N 83.2W 145 KT

36HR VT 05/0000Z 15.8N 85.9W 90 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 05/1200Z 16.3N 88.0W 90 KT

72HR VT 06/1200Z 17.5N 92.0W 50 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 07/1200Z 19.0N 95.5W 60 KT

120HR VT 08/1200Z 20.5N 99.0W 30 KT...INLAND

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

Edited September 3, 2007 by SnowBear

[Iceberg]

He's leaked 10mb in around 3 hours earlier on today, Recon is currently on it's way and we can see whether further gradual weakening has occured or it might even has got stronger.

My concern is that 100+ flight level winds are confined to such a small area that an new EW will have to form in CAT 2 conditions at best. Strengthening might well occur after this event but the system has no reserves of pressure to draw upon.

When Dean went through an ERC an open eye wall leaked only so far as to the next tight banding, this would not be the case with Felix.

[Iceberg]

Recon should be reporting back from Felix core winds in approx 30-40 mins.

WV and IR show a virtually collapsed eye now with infilling of moisture. Tentative signs of an ERC again but that's all.

[kold weather]

Felix is almost certainly back down to cat-4 now but its moving right over an are aof lower heat content so its not surprsiing the eyewall can't sustain itself at its current strength. I should be noted there is some dry air ingestion also occuring on the northern side, not huge but on the western side its beocming more noteable.

It does look like its going to go through a EWRC and with such a small inner core it may not take all that long to undertake, unlike Dean which slopped itself out with several outer eyewalls. Recon has found a central pressur eof 953mbs and max winds of 114kts in the N.quadrant which certainly supports a lower strength then Felix is currently estimated at, probably down to 145-140mph I'd guess.

Note that this is a very small system and any eyewall replacement will hep the system to grow in size and a larger system coming into landfall could lead to a very dangerous situation, it also can't be ruled out that if it does undertake an EWRC it could get close to cat-5 again just beofre its landfall like Dean as the heat content also starts to re-ramp upwards again from this point onwards as it heads westwards, close to the same levels where Felix first went cat-5.

Whatever happens Felix is gonig to hit honduras as an extremely powerfuland dangerous cat-4/5 hurricane in about 24hrs time, could be some very large death tolls from this system if it does hit at full power, We won't be as lucky as we were with Dean in terms of landfall given how poor the region is.

(EDIT--- as suspected Felix downgraded to cat-4, 145mph winds!)

Edited September 3, 2007 by kold weather

[Iceberg]

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...14.2 N...78.7 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

Yep mid range CAT 4, personally looking at the recon it's barely making CAT 4 atm.

The structure is really get bad now with dry air getting into the CDO on the west side. The eye looks to be in bad shape as well.

The problem is that recon found no evidence of an ERC, just a very small eye 8 miles that is obviously leaking pressure.

Another 10 mb loss in around 3-4 hours. I think it might start to stablise at a high end CAT 2 at around 965mb before it can rebuild a new eye wall. Very good news for anybody in it's path.

I don't think there is any chance of Felix regaining a CAT 5 and little chance of maintaining CAT 4 before it dies.

[Matty M]

Your very optimisitic that this storm is dying a death aren't you Iceberg

Still looks decent to my eye but obviously getting abit ragged on the latest loops

[kold weather]

Its hard to say Iceberg, it should be entering the next area of really high heat content in the next few hours and the increase of lapse rates overnight may well power-up Felix again. It appears to me the most likely cause of weakening is the ingestion of drier air, you can see the way its wrapped around the system on the latest images:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg

Its a little hard to say how much clout it'll have at landfall but heat content is still very high and with such a tight core it'd only take 12hrs to strengthen 40mph as we've seen over the last 36hrs. i'll be surpsied if it doesn't hit as a major hurricane Iceberg, i think a landflal around 125-135mph probably most likely. however its true Felix certainly is weakening as of now.

By the way even a cat-2 hit could cause amazing death in this part of the world it is progged to hit, Fifi hit as a 110mph cat-2 and kiiled 8000-10000 people.

Edited September 3, 2007 by kold weather

[Paranoid]

Usually it's the rain that does the most damage in those areas. Mitch was only a TS when he was over Honduras, but he killed around 18000 people due to mudslides and flooding.

[saint]

looks pretty good it will probly be very devestating,on fox there saying it will last till it reaches america yeh right or will it

saint

[kold weather]

Yeah its the landslides that come with allthe rain and given ther emust have been some rain from Dean plus some other waves that have moved through a direct hit may well cause quite a lot of flooding. The thing that will limit the deaths thorugh flooidng IMO will be the fast fowqard speed, Felix now heading west at 21mph!

Recon pretty much confirms that there is no EWRC occuring and the main culprit now has to be the dry air present in the western semicircle of the systems circulation as noted on the last post. Still some fairly deep convection around the eyewall however and if it can cut off that drier air then Felix could rapidly strength again just before landfall.

Edited September 3, 2007 by kold weather

[Iceberg]

Your very optimisitic that this storm is dying a death aren't you Iceberg

Still looks decent to my eye but obviously getting abit ragged on the latest loops

ohhh yeess..

Maybe not dying a death, but I thought and still think it's very poor of the NHC to predict that such a fragile Cane will stay at CAT 5 for so long, I really can't remember seeing such a fragile major hurricane in all my years. Quickly up, quickly down and they don't go up as quick as Felix very often if ever at all.

Latest recon thru the centre. Solid CAT 3

185400 1401N 07842W 6964 03089 9977 +086 +086 214059 060 064 007 00

185430 1403N 07843W 6965 03071 9974 +077 +077 210064 067 066 008 00

185500 1405N 07844W 6972 03052 9950 +085 +085 207069 071 066 024 03

185530 1407N 07845W 6966 03042 9940 +078 +078 204075 079 070 010 00

185600 1408N 07846W 6965 03024 9904 +085 +085 206085 088 075 008 03

185630 1410N 07847W 6965 02986 9878 +078 +078 204093 094 080 009 00

185700 1411N 07849W 6971 02951 9832 +089 +089 206090 090 080 009 00

185730 1412N 07850W 6962 02923 9777 +097 +097 208090 093 085 004 00

185800 1413N 07851W 6965 02865 9697 +115 +115 214093 095 091 000 00

185830 1415N 07853W 6951 02823 9626 +120 +120 208083 093 092 002 00

185900 1416N 07854W 6983 02734 9561 +131 +131 201049 058 080 004 00

185930 1417N 07856W 6972 02718 9516 +148 +122 179022 032 044 002 03

190000 1417N 07858W 6967 02716 9491 +165 +113 136004 014 031 003 03

190030 1417N 07900W 6971 02729 9507 +164 +118 001030 038 031 004 03

190100 1417N 07900W 6971 02729 9534 +157 +129 005047 056 041 024 03

190130 1418N 07902W 6926 02844 9539 +196 +107 006068 078 085 019 03

190200 1420N 07903W 7000 02773 9566 +199 +114 015081 082 096 023 03

190230 1420N 07904W 6950 02878 9663 +138 +133 026092 102 088 040 03

190300 1421N 07905W 6985 02879 9717 +132 +116 025087 089 087 032 00

190330 1423N 07906W 6983 02910 9761 +126 +098 039090 093 084 025 03

[Iceberg]

Latest Vortex 92Kt surface winds, 96 KT flight winds open eye

Equals a boarderline CAT 2/3.

Path should take Felix into Honduras, this looks to be the only landfall he will make.

A. 03/19:00:10Z

B. 14 deg 17 min N

078 deg 58 min W

C. 700 mb 2678 m

D. 92 kt

E. 116 deg 6 nm

F. 216 deg 095 kt

G. 119 deg 007 nm

H. 953 mb

I. 9 C/ 3033 m

J. 17 C/ 3050 m

K. 11 C/ NA

L. OPEN WNW

M. C15

N. 12345/7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF306 1206A FELIX OB 11

MAX FL WIND 114 KT N QUAD 17:20:50 Z

MAX SFC WIND 96KT NW QUAD 19:02Z

MAX FL TEMP 20 C 315__ / 6__ NM FROM FL CNTR

[Paranoid]

From 2100 UTC advisory ( i think)

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

REGARDLESS...FELIX SHOULD REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO ITS

ARRIVAL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115

MILES...185 KM.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL

PRESSURE OF 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

[Lenticular]

Latest Sat of Felix

And the latest IR showing nice cold cloud top to the NW with the water vapour sat images showing plenty of moist air.

both still showing an eye structure of sorts.

Just read this, think that the system could make a slight right turn as to take its track a bit more WNW

HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007

500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX HAS WEAKENED TODAY. MAXIMUM SFMR

WINDS WERE 118 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO BUT THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS

THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A BIT SINCE THEN. THE

AIRCRAFT REPORTS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE EYEWALL HAD OPENED UP TO

THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 115 KT

FOR THIS ADVISORY. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES SHOW SOME RECENT

COOLING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS PARTICULARLY ON THE

WEST SIDE...AND IN FACT THE MOST RECENT MESSAGES FROM THE HURRICANE

HUNTERS SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL MAY HAVE CLOSED UP AGAIN.

HIGH-DENSITY FLIGHT LEVEL DATA PLOTS GIVE A HINT OF A SECONDARY

WIND MAXIMUM SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN

EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...BUT THIS IS NOT EVIDENT FROM OTHER DATA

SOURCES SUCH AS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SINCE THE LARGE-SCALE

ENVIRONMENT IS STILL CONDUCIVE...THE HURRICANE MAY RE-INTENSIFY

PRIOR TO INTERACTING WITH LAND. THIS POSSIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. REGARDLESS...WE EXPECT FELIX TO REMAIN A

MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT 24 HOURS

AND BEYOND IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE ARE UNSURE OF HOW LONG FELIX

WILL REMAIN OVER LAND. SINCE THIS HURRICANE HAS A SMALL INNER

CORE...THE LARGE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS COULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE

MORE RAPIDLY THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY FAST PACE OF 17

KT. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-DEFINED

DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FELIX. THIS REGIME

IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS

WITH SOME WEAKENING. THEREFORE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

MOTION WITH SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED. THE

OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE

ALBEIT IT HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS IN CLOSE

AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET.

OFFICE...NOGAPS...AND GFS DYNAMICAL MODELS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ISLA PROVIDENCIAS SINCE

SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER THAT ISLAND TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 14.3N 79.5W 115 KT

12HR VT 04/0600Z 14.5N 81.9W 120 KT

24HR VT 04/1800Z 14.9N 84.5W 90 KT...INLAND

36HR VT 05/0600Z 15.5N 86.6W 60 KT...INLAND

48HR VT 05/1800Z 16.2N 88.8W 65 KT...INLAND

72HR VT 06/1800Z 17.6N 92.5W 30 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 07/1800Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 08/1800Z 20.5N 99.5W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING

Edited September 3, 2007 by Lenticular

[Cookie]

Intense Hurricane FELIX is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

Honduras

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Nicaragua

probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Puerto Lempira (15.3 N, 83.8 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 21 hours

probability for TS is 65% in about 21 hours

[Roger J Smith]

Run the IR loop on the NHC site for Felix and it seems to have regained some intensity in the past few hours. It also seems to have wobbled a bit southwards and this track may take it well inland over Nicaragua and Honduras. Could take some time to re-emerge which could be good news for Belize but a major blow for Honduras where rains from Mitch created such havoc.

[Iceberg]

I don't think he will emerge from Honduras, he really will be a real problem for this country.

The below is the Vortex from before the 10PM advisory, in the last two recons before this Felix had not measured anything to suggest a CAT 4, but for political reasons they choose to stay with it. He was a low end CAT 3 IMO.

As they suggest he looks 10X better on radar now and has probably gone back upto a boarderline 4. Recon are currently in and should be reporting now.

Vortex Data Message

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000

URNT12 KNHC 032111

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062007

A. 03/20:41:10Z

B. 14 deg 20 min N

079 deg 25 min W

C. NA mb 2677 m

D. 76 kt

E. 222 deg 7 nm

F. 322 deg 079 kt

G. 224 deg 014 nm

H. EXTRAP 953 mb

I. 9 C/ 3045 m

J. 13 C/ 3052 m

K. 13 C/ NA

L. OPEN SE

M. C15

N. 12345/

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF306 1206A FELIX OB 19

MAX FL WIND 109 KT NE QUAD 20:44:30 Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

MAX FL TEMP 15_ C 225__ / 6__ NM FROM FL CNTR

MAX SFC WIND 107KT NE QUAD 20:42:30Z

[Iceberg]

Recon reporting.

increase wind field and 141 Flight winds 125Kt surface. Looks like I was wrong and he is really intensifying more than I thought he would. He didn't handle the ERC at al well but just got his act together in time.

052400 1448N 08124W 6967 03122 0028 +082 +080 117080 081 999 999 03

052430 1446N 08125W 6968 03115 0034 +072 +072 116079 082 999 999 03

052500 1445N 08126W 6966 03107 0026 +070 +070 112075 076 999 999 03

052530 1443N 08127W 6969 03100 0035 +060 +060 114079 080 999 999 03

052600 1442N 08128W 6971 03091 0029 +060 +060 122082 088 999 999 05

052630 1440N 08129W 6959 03102 0018 +064 +064 124085 087 999 999 05

052700 1439N 08130W 6973 03076 0009 +064 +064 123083 085 999 999 03

052730 1438N 08131W 6967 03074 9981 +076 +076 122086 088 999 999 03

052800 1436N 08132W 6969 03061 9975 +072 +072 121091 095 999 999 03

052830 1435N 08133W 6968 03044 9949 +076 +076 121097 100 999 999 03

052900 1434N 08134W 6967 03027 9923 +080 +080 120104 106 999 999 03

052930 1432N 08135W 6969 03000 9909 +070 +070 120112 115 999 999 03

053000 1431N 08137W 6965 02969 9877 +064 +064 118121 123 999 999 03

053030 1430N 08138W 6965 02925 9830 +062 +062 116129 130 999 999 03

053100 1428N 08139W 6948 02881 9742 +074 +074 121136 141 999 999 05

053130 1427N 08140W 6967 02779 9643 +084 +084 126135 143 999 999 05

053200 1426N 08141W 7001 02665 9529 +116 +116 124089 108 999 999 03

[Iceberg]

To try and bring the landing home a bit more, two images one showing the path, slightly south of the predicted path.

And also a picture of a coastal town that will probably be in the eye wall, Hope they've evacuated.

[Roger J Smith]

Is that Dacura (Nicaragua) in the picture? That's my estimate of landfall, and I've searched for contact points there but found nothing on line. Dacura is a tourist supply town and fishing village with a population of about 800. There are similar towns about 30-40 miles north and south but on this due west track Felix has adopted, I think Dacura is the landfall site and could be severely damaged by the eyewall winds as the 06z satellite shows the hurricane quite intact and looking like it could still be gaining a few knots in wind speeds.

However, after that as you say, Honduras could take another very big hit from what could turn out to be massive rainfalls of 20 to 30 inches, as with Mitch, and I fear greatly for the eventual flooding potential there. There should be a brief re-emergence into the Caribbean before southern Belize and northeast Guatemala feel the effects, possibly these will be reduced now that the track is substantially inland.

I think all bets are off beyond 72 hours, this land interaction could send remnants in a considerably different direction than any models are showing, I recall Mitch defying all modelling and heading off to the northeast eventually after looping around near the Honduran coast for days. In this case I think Felix could try to cross the southern Yucatan, lose its identity almost totally then redevelop as a new storm in several days in the southern Gulf. That could move off northerly by then because there is a deep trough forming on the west coast of North America now.

[Paranoid]

How much has Felix strengthened between advisories? I've been out of the loop for the past 12 hours or so. I know he has around 150mph winds now but how much of an increase was that from the previous advisories?

[Zenarcher]

Felix's top sustained winds had increased to 270kmh (1000 Monday AEST)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...l?5day#contents

Hurricane Felix

Winds up to 135mph gusts 160mph

Hurricane moving at 19mph

Lowest pressure 951mb

Edited September 4, 2007 by weathermaster

[Paranoid]

The next recon should be at 10am, unless they're not bothering as it's so close to landfall.

[kold weather]

Felix is close to landfall now and as I somewhat expected Felix has improved on its structure overnight under much higher heat content its been moving over. It does look like a borderline cat-5 afgain right now. The eye is clearing out very nicely right now and the system looks textbook again with some very deep convection around the eyre in the eyewall, as well as some very deep convection to the west over Honduras and Nicaragua which must be given some massive downpours and probably flooding already starting in that band.

Recon should go in again depsite Felix being very clsoe to landfall though will probably only sample the eastern quadrants, its a race against time really but recon will fly into Felix, they did so withDean even after the eye had made landfall. If they do fly into Felix don't be surprised if they find 160mph winds and make it a cat-5, all depends on whether they reach the system before the eye gets to far inland. It does look like a cat-5 right now again...

[RisingStar]

Winds went up from 135mph to 150mph between the last 2 advisories, so perhaps it may increase to Cat5 just before landfall.