Major Hurricane Felix

[Gorky]

Gil is the remnants of a tropical storm over in the Eastern Pacific. We have not had a 'G' storm yet in the Atlantic basin.

Anyways, recon is going back into the storm now. Hopefully the RI has levelled off and it won't be quite so turbulent this time around.

[Iceberg]

With us being in the shadow window there is very little new info. Recon is in at the moment, hope to hell they get a better ride than last time, we don't need another plane damaged.

Felix is one of the strongest storms ever to have developed in the Atlantic, could well go on to be the strongest, he's gone from a TD to a CAT 5 in 24 hours which is absolutely amazing.

The forecast is for a direct hit on Belize as a CAT 5. Approx 15-20 miles south of the Biggest city Belize City. Also within 15 miles of the Capital of Belize....

Tropical and GM's have not handled Felix at all well and Arn't really to be trusted too much atm.

Felix does however have a big problem. It is very likely it's not strong enough to survive an ERC, The quickness of the intensification means that any ERC unless it's done in Dean fashion is likely to significantly weaken Felix maybe down to CAT 3. This would be very good news for Belize.

Honduras Could also suffer significant damage depending on how far out to sea Felix stays.

Edit First recon.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 03/05:11:00Z

B. 13 deg 58 min N

074 deg 44 min W

C. 700 mb 2568 m

D. NA kt not surface winds recorded

E. NA deg 000 nm

F. 235 deg 132 kt

G. 127 deg 008 nm

H. 937 mb pressure stable.

I. 7 C/ 3041 m

J. 24 C/ 3076 m very high temp differential --17C is difference is a serious eye wall

K. 7 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. C10 -- very small eye

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.03 / 1 nm

P. AF305 1006A FELIX OB 07

MAX FL WIND 147KT NW QUAD 05:17:50Z -- no significant strengthening.

STADIUM EFFECT

It's clear that there has been very little further intensification in the last few hours.

IMO Felix will basically stay as is, with a slightly deterating eye and slight pressure leak, the wind field will slowly expand (still not be large). Probably when it reaches Belize it will be CAT 4 possible boardline 5.

It will then emerge into the GOM briefly as a CAT 1 with a little strengthening.

Edited September 3, 2007 by Iceberg

[Zenarcher]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#FELIX

http://www.caycompass.com/cgi-bin/CFPnews.cgi?ID=1024748

http://www.canada.com/saskatoonstarphoenix...ba1&k=21915

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Hurricane Felix has grown to a "potentially catastrophic" Category 5 storm packing winds up to 165 mph (270 kph), the National Hurricane Center said late Sunday.

Edited September 3, 2007 by weathermaster

[kold weather]

Felix is so impressive right now, shame i've got no time to make a decent post about it, but stil look at the central pressure of 935mbs, there have been quite a few cat-4's that have had lower pressure then that!

[Kain]

This is one hell of a fast developing hurricane. I'm loving the 'stadium' effect of the eye wall too.

Kain

[Iceberg]

Quick update before I hop it too work.

Sub 930 pressure again and 155Kt flight winds depending on the surface sounding it will stay at 145Kt or lower to 140Kt.

AF305 1006A FELIX HDOB 29 20070903

070100 1404N 07519W 6963 02590 9283 +250 +058 131018 023 999 999 03

070130 1406N 07520W 6964 02586 9276 +254 +064 105038 050 999 999 03

070200 1406N 07519W 6957 02612 9318 +222 +092 118072 076 999 999 03

070230 1405N 07518W 6957 02610 9314 +226 +078 135051 064 999 999 03

070300 1404N 07518W 6973 02596 9314 +238 +036 162032 033 999 999 03

070330 1402N 07518W 6963 02623 9337 +228 +038 191035 036 999 999 03

070400 1401N 07518W 6961 02652 9387 +198 +074 212040 042 999 999 03

070430 1401N 07520W 6961 02628 9361 +202 +072 213027 036 999 999 03

070500 1403N 07520W 6961 02619 9326 +234 +034 164029 037 999 999 03

070530 1403N 07518W 6960 02648 9366 +218 +048 168047 051 999 999 03

070600 1402N 07518W 6969 02638 9376 +206 +076 176045 050 999 999 03

070630 1403N 07520W 6956 02628 9331 +230 +034 146036 040 999 999 03

070700 1405N 07519W 6963 02629 9345 +226 +038 138054 062 999 999 03

070730 1406N 07518W 6969 02667 9422 +190 +080 139092 107 999 999 03

070800 1407N 07517W 6957 02781 9613 +100 +100 145142 155 999 999 05

070830 1408N 07516W 6979 02864 9774 +068 +068 141141 147 999 999 05

Edited September 3, 2007 by Iceberg

[SnowBear]

What a storm our feline storm is becoming!

We must not forget that Felix has warmer waters ahead, more available energy to a storm that is already Cat5.

498

URNT12 KNHC 030730

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 03/06:57:50Z

B. 14 deg 02 min N

075 deg 19 min W

C. 700 mb 2556 m

D. NA kt

E. NA deg 000 nm

F. 325 deg 121 kt

G. 223 deg 006 nm

H. 936 mb

I. 9 C/ 3051 m

J. 26 C/ 3047 m 26c temp differential now! I think Wilma topped out at 22c , this is from memory so could be wrong

K. 12 C/ NA

L. CLOSED

M. C10

N. 12345/ 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF305 1006A FELIX OB 13

MAX FL WIND 155 KT NW QUAD 07:07:50Z

[Paranoid]

I don't think i've ever known a hurricane hunter aircraft have to abort the mission because the storm was too powerful. That must be a first, or at least a rare event.

[Iceberg]

The path has now changed further south.

The Yucatan will NOT be getting a CAT 5.

Instead Honduras will be getting hit directly.

This could be devasting if it journey's along the coast.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.0N 81.9W

MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.

64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.

50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.5N 84.8W...INLAND OVER HONDURAS

MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.

64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW.

50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.9N 87.2W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

50 KT... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.

34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.5N 91.5W...INLAND SOUTHERN YUCATAN

MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

34 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW.

[Paranoid]

I hope this storm weakens A LOT before it hits Honduras. Given the damage that Edith and Mitch caused there, this could well be a repeat of that if it doesn't weaken.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Two huge storms in a row hitting Central America. No remnants for the UK then. Felix look pretty impressive but not unique

BFTP

[Iceberg]

It it hits as a CAT 5 which is very likely this will be the first year recorded where 2 CAT 5's have hit land.

Felix is rather uniqiue in the speed of it's intensity(TD to CAT 5 in 48hrs) and the structure (i.e such a small core set of winds and such high pressure when it first became a CAT 5.)

[SnowBear]

Looks like the outlier GFDL yesterday could have noticed something all the other models didn't and could turn out to be at least partly the path that H.Felix will take. Will H.Felix become a Central America crossing storm and regenerate in the Pacific. We shall see.

Edited September 3, 2007 by SnowBear

[Iceberg]

Currently looking a little worse IMO on Radar, Signs that The first stages of an ERC might be underway. I still don't think it a likely that an ERC will be particularly successful.

[SnowBear]

000

WTNT31 KNHC 030851

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 12

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007

500 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE FELIX MOVING QUICKLY

WESTWARD...

...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF

HONDURAS...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A

HURRICANE WARNING FROM LIMON HONDURAS EASTWARD TO THE

HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM WEST OF

LIMON WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER. A HURRICANE

WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE

WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT

LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE

WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH

AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO

POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND

CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM

CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN

THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES...

445 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 490 MILES...

790 KM...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS

BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS

GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF

EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON

TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. FELIX IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE

ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON

IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE STATUS DURING

THIS PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY

SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30

MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS

EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 929 MB...27.43 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...14.1 N...75.9 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100

AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[Iceberg]

NOAA recon is almost there. !.

[Iceberg]

110400 1407N 07630W 6968 02954 9798 +111 +106 181105 110 095 012 00

110430 1408N 07632W 6915 02908 9679 +099 +099 187120 128 118 041 00

110500 1409N 07634W 6748 02947 9477 +119 +111 181091 121 132 020 00

110530 1410N 07636W 6900 02700 9329 +225 +068 146033 048 046 003 03

110600 1410N 07638W 7011 02565 9327 +244 +037 071021 023 999 999 03

110630 1408N 07640W 7032 02556 9357 +229 +053 345021 033 999 999 03

110700 1406N 07639W 7086 02511 9405 +187 +118 279050 056 999 999 03

110730 1408N 07637W 7076 02491 9354 +222 +080 220017 029 999 999 03

110800 1409N 07639W 7026 02553 9340 +239 +036 036005 010 999 999 03

110830 1407N 07640W 6948 02669 9385 +203 +070 293036 057 999 999 03

110900 1406N 07641W 6926 02738 9453 +160 +113 295074 079 999 999 03

110930 1408N 07640W 6970 02635 9370 +211 +062 289019 038 999 999 03

111000 1410N 07639W 6939 02653 9333 +230 +031 119010 018 020 000 00

111030 1412N 07640W 6978 02601 9334 +226 +052 080030 043 055 006 00

111100 1413N 07642W 6955 02664 9420 +166 +108 065082 106 130 020 00

111130 1415N 07644W 6943 02809 9602 +117 +117 061148 158 134 032 00

111200 1416N 07645W 7035 02818 9740 +119 +101 057132 138 097 039 00

111230 1417N 07646W 7147 02757 9798 +145 +093 059115 119 082 008 00

111300 1419N 07648W 7000 02979 9848 +139 +067 060101 105 072 002 00

111330 1420N 07649W 6960 03058 9915 +106 +084 065092 095 066 001 00

No futher strengthening is occuing. With 158Kt flight winds and a minimal pressure of 933mb

[Iceberg]

An even smaller eye only 8miles, things are getter even more unhealthy for Felix, the temp deferential is lower indicating an eye that is struggling.

Winds have dropped to 140Kt from 145 and pressure is up, presumably due to a leak.

I still think that Felix will struggle to perform an ERC, which is what he desperately needs at the moment and that slow and stead degredation is what will occur.

URNT12 KWBC 031127

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 3/1109Z

B. 14 DEG 9 MIN N

76 DEG 40 MIN W

C. 700 MB 2582 M

D. 140 KT

E. 120 DEG 5 NM

F. 190 DEG 130 KT

G. 120 DEG 5 NM

H. 938 MB

I. 12 C/3072 M

J. 25 C/3023 M

K. 12 C/NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C08

N. 12345/7

O. 1/2 NM

P. NOAA3 1106A FELIX OB 09 AL062007

MAX FL WIND 130 KT SE QUAD 1105Z

MAX SFMR WIND 140 KT SE QUAD 1105Z

STADIUM EFFECT

[Iceberg]

More obs, lower wind speeds and higher pressure, also notice how small the hurricane is.

Felix is in danger of collapse if the inner eye opens and it attemps and ERC.

122630 1404N 07706W 6922 02941 9686 +139 +103 289096 103 090 032 00

122700 1406N 07705W 6921 02801 9523 +158 +120 286097 111 103 030 00

122730 1408N 07705W 6921 02726 9414 +192 +094 280027 048 059 005 00

122800 1410N 07704W 6983 02629 9368 +226 +049 143010 018 020 000 00

122830 1412N 07704W 6947 02673 9365 +229 +045 122034 048 060 000 03

122900 1413N 07702W 6926 02737 9457 +168 +109 129086 107 110 020 00

122930 1414N 07701W 6914 02862 9624 +107 +107 133138 145 133 028 00

123000 1415N 07700W 6875 03006 9751 +090 +090 134129 133 108 024 00

123030 1416N 07658W 6959 02973 9825 +100 +087 134118 123 097 006 00

123100 1416N 07657W 6977 02998 9863 +114 +083 134103 107 085 001 00

[Iceberg]

New vortex, big recorded pressure rise and recorded winds of 105Kt, there might be higher winds there, so the NHC value will be higher, should still be able to hang on to it's CAT 5 status in the next advisory Just.

URNT12 KWBC 031243

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE

A. 3/1227Z

B. 14 DEG 9 MIN N

77 DEG 5 MIN W

C. 700 MB 2615 M

D. 105 KT

E. 196 DEG 3 NM

F. 288 DEG 112 KT

G. 196 DEG 3 NM

H. 942 MB

I. 10 C/3060 M

J. 22 C/3044 M

K. 6 C/NA

L. CLOSED WALL

M. C08

N. 12345/7

O. 1/2 NM

P. NOAA3 1106A FELIX OB 15 AL062007

MAX FL WIND 162 KT NW QUAD 1111Z

MAX SFMR SFC WIND 140 KT SE QUAD 1105Z

STADIUM EFFECT

EYE SONDE SFC WINDS 14 M/S AT 6 METERS

[Iceberg]

Daylight pic's now available.

The eye is now cloud filled, some debatable images suggesting that a new 30 mile or so eye is forming. The inner eye will certainly not last much more than 2 or 3 hours.

[crimsone]

If I recall, Wilma got her eye down to just 2 miles at one point... Though the specifics are obviously different for felix, I would be very suprised if EWR damaged her catastrophically... It will still be very strong when it gets to land. Whether it gets there at Cat5 though depends on how long it takes, and/or whether it has another before it gets there in my opinion.... and now I'm going to go and find out where she actually is lol.

Edited September 3, 2007 by crimsone

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hmmm, any uniqueness fades

BFTP

[crimsone]

I don't know about that... Felix still seems pretty unique to me! It's not every day that one like this comes along.

[SMU]

PLEASE IGNORE THIS MESSAGE-

KOLD WEATHER (darren) PLEASE EMPTY YOUR PM BOX I NEED TO MESSAGE YOU

STEVE

Edited September 3, 2007 by Steve Murr