Annual CET - 2008

[Stu_London]

Rolling Annual CET - 16/12/07-15/12/08 - 9.95C

A sharp rise back to around 10.05 is on the cards over the next 6-7 days - after that depends on whether we get HP or the atlantic

[Mr Maunder]

According to my calculations we need an average CET of no more than 4.99c for the period 15th to the 31st December to end on 9.99c for the year. Fingers crossed!

As Stu says it all depends on whether the Atlantic returns or whether we get an inverted high!

MM

[Mr Maunder]

According to my calculations we need an average CET of no more than 4.99c for the period 15th to the 31st December to end on 9.99c for the year. Fingers crossed!

One day on - and the Hadley CET is now 2.7c for December (down from 2.8c).

This means that we now need an average CET of no more than 5.21c for the period 16th to the 31st December to end on 9.99c for the year.

Each day the delay to warmer weather continues, the bar is raised proportionately higher when it comes to getting an annual CET of greater than 10c.

MM

[Stu_London]

I think sub 10C is slightly odds on now

[Mr Maunder]

The Hadley CET is now 3.2c to the 18th December

This means that we now need an average CET temperature of no more than 5.1c, for the period 19th to the 31st December, to end on 9.99c for the year.

MM

[Nick L]

The Hadley CET is now 3.2c to the 18th December

This means that we now need an average CET temperature of no more than 5.1c, for the period 19th to the 31st December, to end on 9.99c for the year.

MM

With the sheer beauty being shown on the models I think that will be a breeze!

[Stu_London]

Rolling Annual CET - 20/12/07-19/12/08 - 9.98C

Within 2 days we will be comfortably above 10.00C again as we are up against CET ice days in the corresponding period last year.

The last week of last year was pretty mild however, so even if we just get the high pressure, it might be enough to dip us back below the 10c mark

[Stu_London]

Rolling CET 23/12/07-22/12/08 - 10.06C

We should stablise now and start falling again after boxing day.

[kold weather]

Might go up just a bit more tomorrow but as you say after that we should start dropping away again.

Its from the 27th onwards where we should see a decent drop away, esp possibly on the 28th which had a CET of 10.2, whilst this year looks like only being in the 2.5-3.5C range.

Think we may just get to below 10.00C given the colder conditions progged!

[Stu_London]

Might go up just a bit more tomorrow but as you say after that we should start dropping away again.

Its from the 27th onwards where we should see a decent drop away, esp possibly on the 28th which had a CET of 10.2, whilst this year looks like only being in the 2.5-3.5C range.

Think we may just get to below 10.00C given the colder conditions progged!

It will probably only move marginally in the next couple of days as we are up against slightly milder conditions setting in last year - It may touch 10.07C, but 10.06 as of today is rounded up so it may not even make that.

[ukmoose]

10.4 please.

[Stu_London]

10.4 please.

think you might want to repost that in the 2009 thread - unless you are expecting the sun to suddenly expand and engulf the earth in the few days

[kold weather]

Just did some rough estimates, going to be very close indeed as to whether we get below 10C now, may well just get underneath the 10.00C mark though not by much it seems.

[Nick L]

Just for Gavin P :lol:

I personally think that we may end up with a year close to if not below the 10C mark

Well done mate! Your hunch has proved right, whether it will below is yet to be confirmed but it will certainly be close to 10.

[ukmoose]

think you might want to repost that in the 2009 thread - unless you are expecting the sun to suddenly expand and engulf the earth in the few days

yes indeed - sorry! Have done so now.

[Stratos Ferric]

9.97, 9.94, its like watching the evolution of the 100m world record 20 years ago.

Wonder when we'll have a "Bolt" (9.69) year?

My prediction of 1.7 for December looks a tad ambitious now.

My own view is never again I'm afraid. I suspected we'd never get back under 10.00; this might be the last time it happens if we don't continue to stay low next year. It is in the nature of upward progressions that the low marks get higher, and the high marks too; in recent years all the records have been upside. 2002's 9.93 is the current recent floor. 1996's 9.2 seems like another world.

[Snowly does it]

My own view is never again I'm afraid. I suspected we'd never get back under 10.00; this might be the last time it happens if we don't continue to stay low next year. It is in the nature of upward progressions that the low marks get higher, and the high marks too; in recent years all the records have been upside. 2002's 9.93 is the current recent floor. 1996's 9.2 seems like another world.

It's 50/50 for sub 10 this year imo - there is more on the upside to come before Boxing Day's decline onwards - and then its down to cloud cover.

As for 9.69 - if the 'cold January' prediction comes off - about 3.2 would see us under 9.69 in running - we have an outside chance of running under 9.5 by the end of winter - rank outsider though but we would do it with 4.0, 3.2, 3.6, which would be a significantly cold period in the modern context.

[Gavin P]

My own view is never again I'm afraid. I suspected we'd never get back under 10.00; this might be the last time it happens if we don't continue to stay low next year. It is in the nature of upward progressions that the low marks get higher, and the high marks too; in recent years all the records have been upside. 2002's 9.93 is the current recent floor. 1996's 9.2 seems like another world.

Well it was only 1996 that we got a years CET of 9.2 and had it not been for a pretty good summer, no doubt we'd have been in the 8's for 1996. I think years with a CET of 9 are still very possible and will be for the next decade at least.

[Nick H]

My own view is never again I'm afraid. I suspected we'd never get back under 10.00; this might be the last time it happens if we don't continue to stay low next year. It is in the nature of upward progressions that the low marks get higher, and the high marks too; in recent years all the records have been upside. 2002's 9.93 is the current recent floor. 1996's 9.2 seems like another world.

Very premature imo. By your own admission you never thought this year would be as cool as it has been. There were long periods in the 1920s and 1930s and again the 1960s and 1970s when no 10.0+C year was recorded. I certainly expect each year to come in above 10.0C these days but to say never again below 10 seems naive.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

What does December need to come in at for the annual CET to be below 10C?

[Snowly does it]

What does December need to come in at for the annual CET to be below 10C?

4.0 or lower I believe

I think 4.0 = 9.99

[Mr Maunder]

Based on Manley CET to the 23rd December , we now need an average temperature of 3.1375 c for the period 24th -31st December to come in below 10c for the year.

It is going to be very close!

MM

[Stratos Ferric]

Based on Manley CET to the 23rd December , we now need an average temperature of 3.1375 c for the period 24th -31st December to come in below 10c for the year.

It is going to be very close!

MM

What seemed long odds-on is starting to drift back slightly now. If the projected evolution continues to moderate the way it has there's still a chance that we won't quite breach 10.00 on the downside. I'm projecting 4.0C now for December.

[Mr Maunder]

Based on Manley CET of 4.5c for the month to 25th December , we now need an average temperature of 1.916c for the period 26th -31st December to come in below 10c for the year.

There is still no certainty here. It could go either way - it may just come down to how long the E/SE feed continues.

Failing that a Manley adjustment may do the trick. Even a 0.1 c adjustment would mean that the average temperature would need to be 2.333c for 26th to 31st December. So it makes quite a difference!

As ever, time will tell.

MM

[Duncan McAlister]

You know if the anomaly is over 97.7C for the next 3 days (about 102C each day) then we will break 2006's record of a 10.82C year

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Thank God Hadley are displaying this useful information. I wonder what will be required by the final day :lol:

Edited December 29, 2008 by Duncan McAlister