Annual CET - 2008

[Stu_London]

Just for Gavin P

I personally think that we may end up with a year close to if not below the 10C mark

[Gavin P]

Thanks Stu.

Provisionally, 9.2. Coldest year since 1996. I may well change this in a week or two. but at this stage I'm thinking Jan-March will be cool and we're in for another poor summer.

[Optimus Prime]

-I personally think that we may end up with a year close to if not below the 10C mark

Then you'd be very foolish

10.66c for me please.

How I got to this figure (figures may not be used in the individual CET threads)

January; 3.3c

February; 5.5c

March; 6.9c

April; 9.0c

May; 13.0c

June; 14.8c

July; 15.5c

August; 15.4c

September; 14.8c

October; 12.2c

November; 10.0c

December; 7.6c

we're in for another poor summer.

Going by trends the summer doesn't look like it'll have much summery potential. But I don't think it'll be poor, cool and sunny with winds mainly from the North and West.

[summer blizzard]

A very difficult thing to answer, so i won't make a punt quite yet...

However, with the combination of a weak to moderate La Nina event and a -QBO, i do expect the January to March period to average around 1C below average, though with both values weakening, i would expect below average rainfall. The April to June period is a different story, with a strengthening +QBO and La Nina continuing to weaken to neutral values, this period is likely to contain some wild swings in temperature however with warmth winning out during May and June, this period is likely to see temperatures around 0.5C above average, once again, with below average rainfall. The July to September period is likely to see a stagnat neutral ENSO signal, coupled with a declining but moderate +QBO, this to me indicates temperatures around 0.5C above average, but slightly above average rainfall. The October to December period is once again likely to see a neutral ENSO signal, coupled with a declining but moderate +QBO, this to me indicates temperatures around 0.5C above average, but slightly above average rainfall, however with the ENSO fluctuating more, this is likely to lead to some extremes, with dry periods followed by very wet periods.

For the year as a whole, i would expect precipitation to average around average, however i would expect temperatures to average around 0.5C above average, or a figure around 10.3C (0.3C margin of error)

[Snowly does it]

I have already punted on the 2007 thread

10.35

[West is Best]

9.65C

I think we're in a cooldown, as the last 6 months have shown.

[eddie]

Well the 9.9C I predicted for 2007 got well and truly spanked. Will we ever see another sub 10C year again?

My thoughts are that this year will have an average first half and a very warm second half.

10.9C

[The PIT]

10.4C me thinks.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'l go for 10.1C thanks

[Cymro]

9.2 for me please thing's are changing

;P

[Stu_London]

Then you'd be very foolish

10.66c for me please.

How I got to this figure (figures may not be used in the individual CET threads)

January; 3.3c

February; 5.5c

March; 6.9c

April; 9.0c

May; 13.0c

June; 14.8c

July; 15.5c

August; 15.4c

September; 14.8c

October; 12.2c

November; 10.0c

December; 7.6c

Going by trends the summer doesn't look like it'll have much summery potential. But I don't think it'll be poor, cool and sunny with winds mainly from the North and West.

Interesting that you think Sep 08 - Dec 08 will be the warmest Sep-Dec ever. I think your predictions for the period to August are very plausible however

[Calrissian]

So err, is this the official 2008 prediction thread then ?

Why no prizes ? I want prizes. Good things, like chocolate, gold coins, and holidays on remote beaches.

Calrissian: considering 2008

[Hiya]

9.8

[Duncan McAlister]

Jan - 3.5C

Feb - 4.6C

Mar - 7.0C

Apr - 8.8C

May - 12.6C

Jun - 14.8C

Jul - 17.6C

Aug - 16.5C

Sep - 14.5C

Oct - 11.6C

Nov - 9.5C

Dec - 5.8C

Annual CET: 10.57

Winter staying with the close to average theme, followed by a return to warmth with a very warm spring and above average summer. I think one month will challenge a record and I've picked November, basically because it hasn't been exceptionally mild for a while!

[The PIT]

Jan - 3.5C

Feb - 4.6C

Mar - 7.0C

Apr - 8.8C

May - 12.6C

Jun - 14.8C

Jul - 17.6C

Aug - 16.5C

Sep - 14.5C

Oct - 11.6C

Nov - 9.5C

Dec - 5.8C

Annual CET: 10.57

Winter staying with the close to average theme, followed by a return to warmth with a very warm spring and above average summer. I think one month will challenge a record and I've picked November, basically because it hasn't been exceptionally mild for a while!

Just wondering where you got those values from Duncan ???

[Duncan McAlister]

Just wondering where you got those values from Duncan ???

Mainly guesswork PIT, but I've taken account of the fact that I think this near-average spell will continue for sometime, the year will be well above average and that there'll be one near-record month (which I don't think will be in the winter).

[Roger J Smith]

I will say 10.6, and you can list that as 10.60 or 10.600 or whatever, although frankly I am guessing anyway. :w00t:

[Weather-history]

Next summer is a summer ending in "8" and there hasn't been a decent summer ending in "8" since 1868.

I'm going for 10.3

[SteveB]

9.8c

[Mark Bayley]

10.4c

[Calrissian]

9.8c

Give me a call when Mt. Toba erupts.

--

I willl share the wisdom nearer the time, but seriously...to see numbers below 10.0, :smiliz64:

Calrissian: Having a woodland critters christmas

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

10.37

Little seems to have changed in the North Atlantic. Warm anomalies keep Arctic rim pushed back. More of the same.

[SteveB]

Give me a call when Mt. Toba erupts.

--

I willl share the wisdom nearer the time, but seriously...to see numbers below 10.0, :smiliz23:

Calrissian: Having a woodland critters christmas

It's not that much under 10, If we have a average Jan and Feb then under 10 is not out of the question.

[eddie]

Sorry, I think I will change my punt to

10.6C

[ukmoose]

I'll go for 10.6 please. Thanks.

Moose