Annual CET - 2008

[reef]

At the moment, assuming a July outurn of 16.3C, we are 4.9C cumulative degrees above average. This is 0.7C per month, so equates to 10.44C by the end of the year if it were to continue. To reach 9.9C would require the last 5 months of the year to average 0.6C below normal, giving us 49.3 degrees to play with.

Such a cold final 5 months has only happened 3 times in the last 40 years, in 1981, 1992 and 1993. Even in 2007 with the final 5 months of the year being exactly equal to the 1971-2000 average, it was still the coldest run in since 1996!

Id be very suprised if this happened, even more so on the back of what looks like a 13 months run where technically 7 months have been below par(admittedly most only just).

10.4 - 10.7C looking a good landing zone.

[summer blizzard]

I appreciate your point Reef, however September onwards is subject to change anyway, and July has averaged around 1C above my prediction, so it will likely be higher, though i do think that your range is too high.

Can anybody tell me what the roling annual CET is so far, we won't be below 10C for a while, but i would be interested to know where we stand.

Edited July 30, 2008 by summer blizzard

[Snowly does it]

Can anybody tell me what the roling annual CET is so far, we won't be below 10C for a while, but i would be interested to know where we stand.

If July came in at 16.5, we would be approx 10.19 rolling

[Roger J Smith]

I notice that the cold Labrador current that is usually evident around Newfoundland has almost totally shut down, which should argue for a continued warm anomaly on that side of the Atlantic. Quite often the anomalies are in phase from the British Isles to that part of Canada, I suppose because the Atlantic is not that wide an ocean and if the jet stream is allowed to push well north in summer particularly, there is nothing much to bring it back south. On the other hand there is a blocking high over Greenland so it won't necessarily become meridional either. So the large-scale features seem to argue for slightly above normal temperatures to continue, possibly a warmer spell relative to average to develop in the late autumn and December. I think the annual CET anomaly will rise from where it is now, slightly at least, and I continue to think 10.6 or thereabouts will be the final value.

[Anti-Mild]

The annual CET for 2007 was 10.48c

If the rest of 2008 were to have the same values as last year then the final CET would be 10.17c

If the rest of the year had 71-00 averages, the final CET would be 10.15c.

Either way, 2008 has the very real potential to be the coolest year since 2001 and the 2nd coolest since 1996.

[Nick L]

The annual CET for 2007 was 10.48c

If the rest of 2008 were to have the same values as last year then the final CET would be 10.17c

If the rest of the year had 71-00 averages, the final CET would be 10.15c.

Either way, 2008 has the very real potential to be the coolest year since 2001 and the 2nd coolest since 1996.

The BBC will find a way to manipulate that last sentence into "the warmest year on record", just watch!

[Anti-Mild]

Slightly more far fetched but if the remaining months are an average of 0.46c below the 71-00 average then the annual CET will be 9.99c !

[Optimus Prime]

Currently the year upto today;

Mean maxima 1.12c above average. 12th warmest on record

Mean minima 0.80c above average. 13th warmest on record.

According to the Metoffice the remainder on the year needs to average 1.98c above normal for 2008 to be the warmest year on record and beat 2006.

[Stu_London]

According to the Metoffice the remainder on the year needs to average 1.98c above normal for 2008 to be the warmest year on record and beat 2006.

Extremely unlikely in my opinion - I back 2008 to be the coolest since 2001 and may even dip below that mark

[stewfox]

Extremely unlikely in my opinion - I back 2008 to be the coolest since 2001 and may even dip below that mark

As of mid August ,how does it compare so far to the last 10years

Any link ?

[Stu_London]

As of mid August ,how does it compare so far to the last 10years

Any link ?

The rolling 12 month CET is about 10.2C, at the moment.

That means if last years temperatures were exactly repeated until 31/12/08 then the CET would come in at 10.2C

In comparison to recent years

1996 - 9.20

1997 - 10.53

1998 - 10.34

1999 - 10.63

2000 - 10.30

2001 - 9.93

2002 - 10.60

2003 - 10.50

2004 - 10.48

2005 - 10.44

2006 - 10.82

2007 - 10.48

When you consider that before the 1990s - years in excess of 10C were relatively rare and 8.xx years were reasonably common, it shows the extent of the warming

[Optimus Prime]

As of mid August ,how does it compare so far to the last 10years

Any link ?

That's a fair ammount of working ut t do. I would had thought you would times the CET as of middle of August by 15 add the other 7 months CET then divide by 22 but I can't really see how that's correct. So instead I'll do it from

1st January- 31st July

2008 9.91c

2007 10.48c

2006 9.91c

2005 10.0c

2004 9.97c

2003 10.18c

2002 10.22c

2001 9.22c

2000 9.9c

1999 10.3c

1998 10.12c

1997 9.84c (lower due to the cold January)

1996 8.54c

No real pattern, we're definetely still warming. We're on a par with 2006.

[Weather-history]

Coolest June-July period since 1998.

Coolest March to July period since 2001.

[summer blizzard]

Heres my punt...

January: 4.9C, 0.7C above average (was 6.6C, 2.4c above average - wrong)

February: 5.7C, 1.5C above average* (was 5.4C, 1.2C above average - Correct)

March: 8C, 1.7C above average* (was 6.1C, 0.2C below average - Wrong)

Q1 CET: 6.2C, 1.3C above average (was 6C, 1.1C above average - Correct)

April: 8.9C, 0.8C above average (was 7.9C, 0.2C below average - Wrong)

May: 12.8C, 1.5C above average* (was 13.4C, 2.1C above average - Wrong)

June: 14.6C, 0.5C above average (was 13.9C, 0.2C below average - wrong)

Q2 CET: 12.1C, 1.1C above average (was 12.1C, 1.1C above average - Correct)

July: 15C, 1.5C below average* (was 16.2C, 0.3C below average - Wrong)

August: 15.5C, 0.7C below average (was 16.2C, Average - Wrong)

September: 12.7C, 1C below average

Q3 CET: 14.4C, 1.1C below average

October: 8.4C, 2C below average*

November: 6.4C, 0.5C below average

December: 5.8C, 0.7C above average

Q4 CET: 6.9C, 0.5C below average

2008 CET: 9.9C, 0.15C above average

In conclusion, based on current data, i believe that 2008 will be close to average.

[SNOWPLOUGH]

I'm having a guess at 9.9c

SP

Edited September 19, 2008 by SNOWPLOW

[eddie]

With the Hadley September CET finishing at 13.5C that means the average CET for the year so far is 11.0C - The coolest since 2001.

41 years have been warmer than 11C by this point in the year. 9 out of those 41 have finished below 10C.

[Optimus Prime]

If the anomaly stays the same, the years end will finish on 10.25c. Despite the cool feel it'll still be very warm, but not exceptionally.

[Gavin P]

If November turns out to be cold, as I think it might, we have a chance of the sub 10c CET year, IMO.

[Weather-history]

Interesting looking back at this thread, some good predictions, some way off. The poor summer ending in "8" came into fruition as I expected.

I went for 10.3

[Stu_London]

With a coolish start to October and the possibility of more below average stuff mid month - sub 10C in running becomes a possibility sometime in October but more likely November - we are 10.19 as at 30/09/08 - will monitor this as October progresses

[reef]

If November turns out to be cold, as I think it might, we have a chance of the sub 10c CET year, IMO.

Its a chance, albeit rather small. To achieve an annual CET now of 9.99C requires the final 3 months to be 1.7 cumulative degrees below the 1971-2000 average. It would ideally need one of those elusive months 1C below average (just 6 since January 1997).

Such a cool run-in has only been achieved in 4 of the last 30 years, those being 1981, 1992, 1993 and 1996.

[stewfox]

The BBC will find a way to manipulate that last sentence into "the warmest year on record", just watch!

The BBC will say one of the warmest years ever recorded

However way you spin it it looks like being the second coldest year of the Century

Put (so far) on page 5

Edited October 2, 2008 by stewfox

[summer blizzard]

Heres my punt...

January: 4.9C, 0.7C above average (was 6.6C, 2.4c above average - wrong)

February: 5.7C, 1.5C above average* (was 5.4C, 1.2C above average - Correct)

March: 8C, 1.7C above average* (was 6.1C, 0.2C below average - Wrong)

Q1 CET: 6.2C, 1.3C above average (was 6C, 1.1C above average - Correct)

April: 8.9C, 0.8C above average (was 7.9C, 0.2C below average - Wrong)

May: 12.8C, 1.5C above average* (was 13.4C, 2.1C above average - Wrong)

June: 14.6C, 0.5C above average (was 13.9C, 0.2C below average - wrong)

Q2 CET: 12.1C, 1.1C above average (was 12.1C, 1.1C above average - Correct)

July: 15C, 1.5C below average* (was 16.2C, 0.3C below average - Wrong)

August: 15.5C, 0.7C below average (was 16.2C, Average - Wrong)

September: 12.7C, 1C below average (was 13.5C, 0.2C below average - Wrong)

Q3 CET: 14.4C, 1.1C below average (was 15.3C, 0.2C below average - Wrong)

October: 9.4C, 1C below average

November: 6.4C, 0.5C below average

December: 4.1C, 1C below average

Q4 CET: 6.6C, 0.8C below average

2008 CET: 9.83C, 0.08C above average (On course to be 10.00C)

In conclusion, based on current data, i believe that 2008 will be close to average.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Interesting looking back at this thread, some good predictions, some way off. The poor summer ending in "8" came into fruition as I expected.

I went for 10.3

Summer 2008 was by no means a cool summer. It was still slightly above the 1961-90 average but was fairly wet but not as wet as 2007. So yes, while summer 2008 was by no means a brilliant summer, it was fairly wet but temperatures were still about average overall - showing how difficult it is today to get the below average seasons of the pre 1988 era, which is something that cannot be ignored by anyone looking for a cooldown. In reality a truly cool summer should have a CET of less than 15*C, summers of which were not that unusual prior to 1988, indeed there were four in a row from 1985-88.

[summer blizzard]

Could somebody tell us what the rolling fugure for this year is so far??