January C.E.T

[Stargazer]

Agree, OP - without doubt it's been a very mild month.

Only one question - was wondering where your mean figures come from. Don't know the exact averages for Reading (or exactly where you are - I'm near the town centre) but would have thought 7.5 max/1.5 min would be nearer the mark for 1971-2000? With these figures this gives a month with daytime temperatures around 2 degrees above average and night time temperatures around 4 degrees above average.

Edited January 31, 2008 by Stargazer

[LadyPakal]

The temp averages for Aberdeen are as follows:

Max : 6.7

Min : 0.5

Ave : 3.7

Days zero or below : 14

Coldest January since 2001 (which was 2.7). I only have records since 2001 unfortunately so can't tell you how far from average that it was. I can tell you what the last 8 years Jan averages were tho'-

2001 : 2.7

2002 : 4.4

2003 : 4.1

2004 : 3.9

2005 : 5.3

2006 : 4.3

2007 : 4.7

2008 : 3.7

Amazing North/South difference this month.

[reef]

Hadley is 6.6C to the 30th (6.64C to be exact), with yesterday averaging a mild 5.0C. Today will be only marginally cooler, so it looks like it will be the finishing number.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

If it does indeed finish on 6.6C and isnt revised at the end of the month, it makes it the joint 8th mildest since 1659. Looks like mild is back with a vengence after that small 'blip'.

Mildest Januarys:

1916: 7.5C

1796: 7.3C

1834: 7.1C

2007: 7.0C

1733: 6.9C

1975: 6.8C

1983: 6.7C

1898: 6.6C

2008: 6.6C

Question is, will February follow in its footsteps and have a cold first few days followed by unrelenting warmth during the rest of the month? Hopefully not.

[LadyPakal]

What I find quite interesting about those numbers is that 4 of the top 5 warmest Januaries were pre 1917. *goes off to look at the other winter months for those years*

[Optimus Prime]

Agree, OP - without doubt it's been a very mild month.

Only one question - was wondering where your mean figures come from.

I decide to go with the the BBC averages for London. I know they're probably not accurate but they're the best I have.

There's no point using the averages for the last 6 years on my records (some information is lost anyway) because that would be taking into acount the recent warming.

But I agree, I have a sneaky superstition that 2.0c minimum maybe slightly to high while maxima too low but I don't have any other way of getting a figure more akin to the areas average outside of London.

Although there is a site that holds records back to 1974 with daily temperatures for each day of the month but some data is missing particularly upto 1999 so it would probably disort the figure to greatly.

Just to show how greatly different this is from January 2006;

January_local_CET.rtf

Edited January 31, 2008 by Optimus Prime

[Scorcher]

Hadley is 6.6C to the 30th (6.64C to be exact), with yesterday averaging a mild 5.0C. Today will be only marginally cooler, so it looks like it will be the finishing number.

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

If it does indeed finish on 6.6C and isnt revised at the end of the month, it makes it the joint 8th mildest since 1659. Looks like mild is back with a vengence after that small 'blip'.

Mildest Januarys:

1916: 7.5C

1796: 7.3C

1834: 7.1C

2007: 7.0C

1733: 6.9C

1975: 6.8C

1983: 6.7C

1898: 6.6C

2008: 6.6C

Question is, will February follow in its footsteps and have a cold first few days followed by unrelenting warmth during the rest of the month? Hopefully not.

Interesting to see 1983 there in there, with a similar January temperature wise to 1983 I hope that the summer follows suit and delivers plenty of heat as in 83!

[North-Easterly Blast]

Reef;

You missed out Jan 1921, which had a CET of 7.3.

So Jan 2008 will be the 9th warmest on record.

I agree that for the CET zone, and except in Scotland, this January has been totally dissapointing. After a close to average second half of 2007, and prolonged spells of above average temperatures have been relatively rare since last April, it only had to revert back again and give a dissapointingly mild January didn't it. I for one was hoping that this January would at least be closer to average than recent years, but it dissapointingly hasn't. It is true that January has really been the pits for cold weather this decade, I mean in the last ten years only Jan 2001 was below average, and only Jan 2006 was close to average.

I think at times you often find weather patterns repeat themselves, such as the cold Decembers in the 1960s, the largely cold winters from 1977-87; the mild Decembers in the 1970s and 1980s, and then in the 1990s it was February that was often the mild month and the pits for cold weather that decade. I am just thinking that January has gone the way this decade like February did in the 1990s.

If I were to pick repetitive patterns out, in the 1990s it was February and March that were the two months of the year being most notoriously noted for being above average, and to a lesser degree January, whereas in the 2000s it has really been January and September that have been the most notoriously above average months.

I think the examples quoted above of how weather patterns repeat themselves partly has got something to do with global temperatures. We all know that the strong El Nino of 1997-98 escalated global warming and contributed to 1998 being the warmest year globally on record, and since 1998 the average global surface temperature has been on average 0.4 above the 1961-90 average. Part of this could be to do with the weather patterns in 1998 often repeating themselves in many other parts of the world.

[ukmoose]

"We seem to go from autumn to spring now (in the south) without passing through Winter."

I think this is very telling SF and, apart from the odd wintry day, very true. There have been nights this months when a T shirt has been plenty warm enough to wander about in, let alone some of the days. Almost balmy at times - or is that barmy?

Moose

[dr.rioja]

I think this is very telling SF and, apart from the odd wintry day, very true. There have been nights this months when a T shirt has been plenty warm enough to wander about in, let alone some of the days. Almost balmy at times - or is that barmy?

spent a balmy afternoon in my (south facing) garden on sunday just gone. in my tee shirt, cat basking in the sun, bumble bees buzzing, couple of beers. i can remember doing this before in march sometime and in Feb 1998 i think, but in January? never. so no , not barmy. just feels a bit odd though, being able to sit outside in the middle of winter. :lol:

[Roger J Smith]

Well, the mother of all anti-climaxes has come to an end, at least for you, for me it goes on until 0800 ... and the balloon has come to land about mid-way between my two guesses, the one that was booed offstage, and the other one which was also, but you only get two kicks at this CAT.

A bit of doggerel may be appropriate now:

We say fond farewell to January 08,

It started out cold and most thought that was great;

The high was so strong that it crushed half of Russia,

The sad thing was, it avoided east Prussia.

It went on instead to the east of Tehran,

And many in China were changing their plan.

But even larger teapot turns out quite a bummer,

It turned into spring and then into summer.

RJ floated off in his crazy balloon,

The word on the street was the man was a loon;

By nearly midmonth there were seven left on,

and RJ was dropping them, one by one;

He needed less ballast, but Craig needed more,

His forecast the ceiling, and RJ's the floor.

Wise Stratos kept looking and redrawing charts,

He virtually invented the forecasting arts.

There were quite a few who were wondering why,

the old edit function had now gone awry.

The search was then on for a great big old whammo,

But this only turned up when this month was scrammo.

It came late a knocking on Osborne's front door,

And let in some Scotsmen on some unplanned tour.

But CET land was benign as a sphinx,

The people spent most of the month on the links.

What many had hoped would come from Siberia,

came back around and turned up from Iberia.

The Bartletts stayed longer than anyone wanted,

By yesterday they were kicked out, quite undaunted.

They said they'd be back at the start of next week,

And La Nina's forecast was looking quite bleak.

Craig Evans was told he might easily win,

If only he pushed Plymouth out and let in

Manchester, that was the worst verse of all,

For any more poetry, there won't be much call.

Edited February 1, 2008 by Roger J Smith

[chionomaniac]

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2008

If I am reading this right then yesterday came in at 5.5c leaving the provisional monthly average at 6.60c a toasty 2.78c above average.

c

[reef]

Thats correct. So unless there is any change then its the joint 9th warmest January since 1659.

[chionomaniac]

Thats correct. So unless there is any change then its the joint 9th warmest January since 1659.

or to put it another way 342nd coldest!

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt (scroll right down)

c

[reef]

or to put it another way 342nd coldest!

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt (scroll right down)

c

Indeed, it looks like the 6.6C figure is official:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

It looks like Roger J Smith has the closest guess with 6.3C.

[J10]

On that basis, I'll put 6.6c as the figure for January, but a quick look at the figures shows not that many close entries.

[Roger J Smith]

The closest entry was the one I rescinded after sober second thought.

If January gets any milder, this is what I fear:

The United Kingdom will be in the southern hemisphere.

[Stratos Ferric]

The closest entry was the one I rescinded after sober second thought.

If January gets any milder, this is what I fear:

The United Kingdom will be in the southern hemisphere.

Some fine wordsmithing today Roger. I appreciate it even if nobody else seems to!

[Stratos Ferric]

I make it only the ninth time in CET history that consecutive years have yielded top ten all time finishes for a given month. Four of those have happened since 1990. That's 45% in less than 5% of the measured record. Now that's what you call bad luck.

[Roger J Smith]

There was an old woman who lived in a shoe,

Her urban heat island was nineteen point two.

[Rollo]

There was an old woman who lived in a shoe,

Her urban heat island was nineteen point two.

I know an old codger who lives in Vancouver,

He's a B'good forecaster and a h+ll of a mover.

[Weather-history]

Looks like in the top 20 wettest Januarys on record.

Since and including May 2007, it will be the 4th month to finish in the top 20 wettest if confirmed. If you include April 2007, then it will be the 5th to finish in either top 20 wettest or driest months on record.

Edited February 2, 2008 by Mr_Data

[Roger J Smith]

Actually Rollo, I was talking to Krusty Ken McKillayuppie about that, and he said a better second line would have been:

His forecasts suck and so does his Hoover :o

[J10]

I have attached the results for January 2008, using the Hadley CET figures, which as discussed earlier will be used for this competition.

In a very mild / warm January this caught most competitors out but well done to Roger J Smith (1st) mark forster 630 (2nd) and Mike W (3rd) for getting close.

It is of course early days in the overall competition, but chionomaniac is 1st with Potent Gust in 2nd with Summer of 95 in 3rd.

While in Seasonal comp, chionomaniac is again in 1st with Potent Gust in 2nd and Roger J Smith in 3rd.

[summer blizzard]

Looks like i am in ninth place, bring much better than last year at the same time.

[Stratos Ferric]

Looks like i am in ninth place, bring much better than last year at the same time.

You're having a good start SB: keep it up. I did point out to you last year that sometimes your re-forecasts moved you well away from what would have turned out to be far more accurate initial projections. Maybe simplicity is king?