January C.E.T

[summer blizzard]

Saying it's no milder then last year is a bit of a bold and very untrue statement....it's a lot milder then last year. We've had record breaking warm nights for a start and very little frost...only 2 here so far compared to 3 in 2007 and 7 in 2006.

Optimus Prime, while January 2007 did see a cool spell from the 23rd onwards, it also saw the warmest first half to any January on record at 8.*C+, so despite this month featuring more consistent warmth, your statement is injest.

[Optimus Prime]

Ok, perhaps you're right but here in southern England it's been mild from day 1 to present day. Only 2 days which came in below normal and only 6 nights.

My records show we were 2.4c above normal upto the 15th. The closest period came from the 1st-4th where we were only 0.4c above average.

In my mind it's been the worse January of the century. January 2007 is pretty close but some snowfall made up for it.

[Snowly does it]

In my mind it's been the worse January of the century. January 2007 is pretty close but some snowfall made up for it.

Here we agree - 07 and 08 are without doubt the worst Jans of the century - 07 just worse for me as the northerly delivered precious little here anyway.

[Stratos Ferric]

I'm still amazed the CET is not higher.

We've had many days here well into double figures, hardly dropping at night. Quite a few nights have failed to drop into single figures even and there have been very few nights below, say, 5 degrees to offset any of this absurd warmth.

It's astonishing to me that the CET is not 7 already (as it is on NW tracker of course). Can anyone explain that? Seems a large discrepancy.

Moose

That's Hadley for you. The northern site will just be moderating things a little. To be fair to OP, I suspect that in the south this year is every bit as warm as last year was. I've been down here most of the month and would agree. The difference was that last year, in a more mT flow, the north was mild too: this year there's a sharper gradient northwards: it will be interesting to see the official UK MO isotherms for the month but I'd hasard that the MAIN difference in the numbers this year is the impact of Stonyhurst / Squires Gate.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Interesting that Roger J Smith was going for an outturn of above 6C by the 20th, and most were replying with things along the lines of "that's impossible!" According to Philip Eden it was comfortably achieved- 6.6C by the 21st, and Hadley is rarely more than a couple of tenths of a degree different.

What's concerning is that this January has been compared favourably winter weather-wise in some quarters with January 1999, yet it looks like the CET is going to come out over a degree higher (January 1999 had a CET of 5.5). OK so January 1999 had a brief northerly interlude on the 8th-12th, but the rest of Jan '99 was south-westerlies, and bear in mind that January 2008 started with a cold snap as well.

January 1994 also had a lot in common with this month, with low pressure and south-westerlies dominant and some localised snow events esp. in the north, and came out with a CET of just 5.3C.

Like Reef suggested a couple of times, we've essentially sleepwalked into a very mild month.

[SP1986]

There is no chance of my location beating last years mean temperature for here which was 8.1C if I remember rightly - largely due to the number of maxima over 15C

[reef]

If anything, its well above average here. We recorded a maximum of 11.3C at 12.30am and havent dropped below 6.6C - so an average of nearly 9C. Hardly a cold snap!

I suspect this will be mirrored around the CET zone, we could even see a small rise tomorrow, many areas were still 11-13C at 2am.

And sure enough, after yesterday's 'cold snap' Phillip Eden's Manley CET has risen by 0.05C. It is now on 6.7C unrounded, so 8.0C required to hit a final number of 7C.

January 2007 was 6.89C on Manley, so this month could well be higher on that series.

Hadley is yet to update.

[Stratos Ferric]

And sure enough, after yesterday's 'cold snap' Phillip Eden's Manley CET has risen by 0.05C. It is now on 6.7C unrounded, so 8.0C required to hit a final number of 7C.

January 2007 was 6.89C on Manley, so this month could well be higher on that series.

Hadley is yet to update.

Yes, it was genuinely Siberian yesterday. It's coming to something when a cold day is increasing an already well above average CET.

[Snowly does it]

lol, yes a very 'cold' day yesterday in the CET zone. Very mild the preceeding night and early doors before the cooler air arrived. If its any consolation, todays 'ultra mild' won't see it rising in all likelihood due to the overnight colder temps.

[Snowly does it]

Interesting that Roger J Smith was going for an outturn of above 6C by the 20th, and most were replying with things along the lines of "that's impossible!" According to Philip Eden it was comfortably achieved- 6.6C by the 21st, and Hadley is rarely more than a couple of tenths of a degree different.

Guilty as charged!

Hadley 6.7, Manley 6.9 are my estimates for finishing figs now.

[Thundery wintry showers]

What's concerning is that this January has been compared favourably winter weather-wise in some quarters with January 1999, yet it looks like the CET is going to come out over a degree higher (January 1999 had a CET of 5.5)

Just thinking to myself, since we're looking at a very dull wet month for January 2008, whereas January 1999 was generally wet but sunny, it could simply be that in January 1999 we had a lot of returning polar air from the SW giving sunshine and showers. January 1994, again, was similar in that respect. This January, on the other hand, has had more frontal systems, bringing dull and wet weather, and pronounced warm sectors to the south.

That might go some way towards explaining the higher CET and greater N-S divide.

[Matty M]

Astonishing really that out of 100 people surveyed only 1 person picked a CET higher than what it actually is going to be.

Even we are naive to this incredible warming of our winters.

31 pall taul -0.4

10 jimmyay 1.2

36 Timbo 1.4

114 beng 1.5

27 kippure 1.7

92 tinybill 2.0

96 Jonnie G 2.1

119 stormchaser1 2.5

110 david16 2.6

87 La Nina 2.7

63 BLAST FROM THE PAST 2.9

93 smith25 2.9

128 THE EYE IN THE SKY 2.9

74 BUSHY 3.0

146 Great Plum 3.0 -10pts

4 adamjones416 3.1

89 Mammatus 3.1

90 Norrance 3.1

130 Simon Swales 3.1

48 noggin 3.2

84 Gavin P 3.2

109 JJB McCabe-Deluxe 3.2

52 Anti-Mild 3.3

78 Snowyowl9 3.3

26 kold weather 3.4

58 Snowsure 3.4

19 Duncan McAllister 3.5

44 Sillkalven 3.5

62 zak robinson 3.5

85 Snowhope 3.5

46 Rollo 3.6

72 Glacier Point 3.6

14 Barry 3.7

16 mufc 3.7

50 mark bayley 3.8

67 damianslaw 3.8

116 Terminal Moraine 3.8

9 ghrud 3.9

51 neforum2 3.9

55 StormMad26 3.9

75 phil n.warks 3.9

99 Osborne One-Nil 3.9

107 James M 3.9

142 Hiya 3.9 -10pts

21 Lightning Hunter 4.0

24 summer blizzard 4.0

47 Lady Pakel 4.0

117 DR Hosking 4.0

54 Memories of 63 4.1

45 Snooz 4.2

98 TomSE20 4.2

125 shuggee 4.2

65 Snow Leopard 4.3

70 Cal 4.3

97 Polar Gael 4.3

112 John-Acc 4.3

123 ned 4.3

147 Tommyd1258 4.3 -10pts

20 snowmaiden 4.4

40 Optimus Prime 4.4

57 The Calm before the Storm 4.4

124 MegaMoonFlake 4.4

95 DAVID SNOW 4.5

101 Mr Data 4.5

104 RAIN RAIN RAIN 4.5

127 Calrissian 4.5

131 IRON-BRU 4.5

38 suffolkboy 4.6

69 Stargazer 4.6

94 Stu_London 4.6

115 windswept 4.6

126 Northants Snow 4.6

6 The Pit 4.7

18 osmposm 4.7

39 eddie 4.7

105 slipknotsam 4.7

43 SteveB 4.8

49 Magpie 4.8

106 Don 4.8

132 Mark H 4.8

133 Stratos Ferric 4.8

143 Joneseye 4.8 -10pts

17 sundog 4.9

35 Potent Gust 4.9

37 Paul Sherman 4.9

100 jimben 4.9

103 Nick F 4.9

108 RedShift 4.9

120 Timmy H 4.9

148 Mr Maunder 4.9 -10pts

29 ukmoose 5.0

76 tesaro 5.0

144 Steve Murr 5.0 -10pts

11 Cymru 5.1

22 Atlantic Flamethrower 5.1

68 Persian Paladin 5.1

41 chionomaniac 5.2

113 mk13 5.2

42 Matty M 5.3

53 Stephen Prudence 5.4

122 reef 5.4

23 swfc 5.5

59 Kentish Man 5.5

12 Mike W 5.8

129 acbrixton 5.8

149 Polar Continental 5.8 -10pts

7 mark forster 630 6.1

102 Roger J Smith 6.3

61 Craig Evans 8.0

[Stratos Ferric]

Just thinking to myself, since we're looking at a very dull wet month for January 2008, whereas January 1999 was generally wet but sunny, it could simply be that in January 1999 we had a lot of returning polar air from the SW giving sunshine and showers. January 1994, again, was similar in that respect. This January, on the other hand, has had more frontal systems, bringing dull and wet weather, and pronounced warm sectors to the south.

That might go some way towards explaining the higher CET and greater N-S divide.

It would be interesting to do a count of i-primary; and, ii-secondary LPs getting past the meridian. My hunch would be that assuming PFJ was around the same location (doubtful), that there were more secondaries this month. A by product of warmer waters would quite plausibly be more cyclogenesis.

Astonishing really that out of 100 people surveyed only 1 person picked a CET higher than what it actually is going to be.

Even we are naive to this incredible warming of our winters.

It's more staggering even that that. Not only is only one person high, but that person will still be closer than all but a very small proportion of the rest of the entrants. If Craig plays his cards right for the rest of the year, and desists with his hitherto consistently silly high-side punts, he might find that the lead he has stolen this month will be hard for many, and certainly those who bid wearing pre-even larger teapot blinkers, to make up.

[Stu_London]

It's more staggering even that that. Not only is only one person high, but that person will still be closer than all but a very small proportion of the rest of the entrants. If Craig plays his cards right for the rest of the year, and desists with his hitherto consistently silly high-side punts, he might find that the lead he has stolen this month will be hard for many, and certainly those who bid wearing pre-even larger teapot blinkers, to make up.

Not so staggering when you consider some of the dodgy output the models were displaying at the end of December. What looked like a very potent cold spell eventually got downgraded to a 36 hour spell of below par temps.

even you sucked in to an extent Stratos with your 4.8C

Edited January 25, 2008 by Stu_London

[Thundery wintry showers]

It would be interesting to do a count of i-primary; and, ii-secondary LPs getting past the meridian. My hunch would be that assuming PFJ was around the same location (doubtful), that there were more secondaries this month. A by product of warmer waters would quite plausibly be more cyclogenesis.

This is where having the Weather Logs back to January 1993 comes in useful. I did a quick check-up of the primary and secondary lows for Januarys 1994 and 1999, and there seems to be little difference in secondary low development:

1994: 8 primary lows, 11 secondary lows

1999: 7 primary lows, 10 secondary lows

2008 so far: 7 primary lows, 10 secondary lows

In addition, the track of the primary lows in all three months was practically identical, so the mean SLP chart should also look the same. However, that doesn't tell the full story. A large proportion of the secondary LPs I identified in Januarys 1994 and 1999 were weak features that headed east along the English Channel, whereas every secondary low in January 2008 has deepened and headed northeast as it approached the British Isles.

Thus, it seems that the secondary lows have been deeper and more vigorous this month, often helping to bring the PFJ a bit further north- probably another consequence of higher SSTs.

[Roger J Smith]

Sorry to be contrarian, but I don't see this as a case of a month that overcame some monstrous obstacle to reach the mid to high sixes where it appears headed now. The problem was that the massive high which appeared at the end of December on the charts, after so many (including myself) had speculated about this winter being "the big one" or at least a big one. This high was just too much of a good thing, as I commented to BFTP either on here or in private messages, can't remember for sure, but the thing was, a high that strong (1062 mbs) and on a SE to SSE trajectory just seemed destined to sink far to the south eventually, as it happens if you follow its evolution through the month, it has contributed to most of Asia getting whacked with cold weather. Only Russia, Ukraine and the Balkans really got much cold weather out of it in Europe.

As soon as I realized what this high was likely to do, I totally revised my January estimate, because the research profiles I use were all pretty consistent in showing a mid-month peak and this early month cold seemed destined to be marginal. Also I was concerned that the Atlantic was looking active if somewhat depressed, so there was that nagging suspicion that it would fire up and push over whatever obstacle was created by this high. In some ways that high may have taken away the chances of a colder month because any retrograde tendencies that may have been available were squashed down into the Black Sea and Med where they petered out over time.

Of course this is a case of 20-20 hindsight and I feel extraordinarily fortunate to have seen all these pieces of the puzzle fall into place, don't expect it to continue month after month, I am feeling my way through an enormous maze in this enterprise as you all know, but I am relieved to note the much colder weather on the way 30-31 Jan, that should seal the deal here and keep Craig's hands off the big old tuna. Anyone want a tuna sandwich while we're waiting for February?

February looking like a similar minefield of pattern changes, good luck one and all.

[Snowly does it]

It's more staggering even that that. Not only is only one person high, but that person will still be closer than all but a very small proportion of the rest of the entrants. If Craig plays his cards right for the rest of the year, and desists with his hitherto consistently silly high-side punts, he might find that the lead he has stolen this month will be hard for many, and certainly those who bid wearing pre-even larger teapot blinkers, to make up.

Its a ploy by me - I am trying to lull everyone into highside Feb punts so my 3.1 will walk away with it. Unfortuantely

1) The coldies aren't scared by the odd high 6 month here and there and

2) 3.1 is a stupidly low guess.

P.S. Stupid like a fox

[Snowyowl9]

Yes, it was genuinely Siberian yesterday. It's coming to something when a cold day is increasing an already well above average CET.

Nope the cold air didn`t really reach the south during that -5c upper westerly with 8-10c in the south.

This weekened is interesting as with the exceptional mild upper air thats shown sunday upto +12c

http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/Rmgfs302.gif

And surface temps the same or lower with cooler air shown to a few days ago, bbc go for 10-12c max with 4c min tonight in the SW which should slow the CET from rising as much.... 8.7c here now under sunnier skies and a strongish SW wind.

http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn3617.png

http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn307.png

Edited January 26, 2008 by Snowyowl9

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The problem was that the massive high which appeared at the end of December on the charts, after so many (including myself) had speculated about this winter being "the big one" or at least a big one. This high was just too much of a good thing, as I commented to BFTP either on here or in private messages, can't remember for sure,

Hi Roger

It was via PM and it was on 30/12/07. I mentioned last week that Jan has panned out the way you said, indeed extremely close to but someone piped up that you forecast a Whammo. Indeed you did until the revised forecast which talked of increased tendency towards warmth. Obviously its a PM folks but I can assure you it exists and unfortunately[or not for Roger as this is another big plus for Roger's theory] it has borne out...and a dreadful January for us has gone by.

Never mind a big mixed bag for February coming...something for everyone.

BFTP

[ukmoose]

That's Hadley for you. The northern site will just be moderating things a little. To be fair to OP, I suspect that in the south this year is every bit as warm as last year was. I've been down here most of the month and would agree. The difference was that last year, in a more mT flow, the north was mild too: this year there's a sharper gradient northwards: it will be interesting to see the official UK MO isotherms for the month but I'd hasard that the MAIN difference in the numbers this year is the impact of Stonyhurst / Squires Gate.

I think that's right SF. I think the north/south split this January has been very marked. Quite an impact on the overall CET I would think with the colder north cancelling out the much warmer south. The warmth was much more widespread last January.

Moose

[Duncan McAlister]

6.7C on Manley and 6.5 on Hadley by the month's end I think. Still higher than most of us imagined!

[Kentish Man]

And sure enough, after yesterday's 'cold snap' Phillip Eden's Manley CET has risen by 0.05C. It is now on 6.7C unrounded, so 8.0C required to hit a final number of 7C.

January 2007 was 6.89C on Manley, so this month could well be higher on that series.

Hadley is yet to update.

Well on the assumption that the 06z GFS is accurate to the end of the month (still up for debate at the moment) I think we can bury any notion of Jan 2008 on Manley being higher than Jan 2007. Manley today is still 6.7C and it will do well to maintain this by the end of the month. A slight fall now looks favourite given the forecast chilliness of the last 2 days of this month.

The interesting stat will be whether it can hold at 6.5C or above on Hadley thus putting it in the top 10 or so mildest Jans. At the moment given Hadley is only on 6.5C this looks unlikely.

Edited January 27, 2008 by Kentish Man

[summer blizzard]

Astonishing really that out of 100 people surveyed only 1 person picked a CET higher than what it actually is going to be.

Even we are naive to this incredible warming of our winters.

I CHANGED MY PUNT TO 4.9C IN POST 64 WHEN I UPDATED THE LIST, THAT 4C PUNT NEEDS DELETING..

[Stratos Ferric]

And here's the end of month forecast...

Mid 6s is the finishing zone. Damage limitation for nearly everyone. The persistence of the end of month cold projection has been notable, even if the nature of that cold has changed from continental to Pm.

Edited January 27, 2008 by Stratos Ferric

[Stu_London]

And here's the end of month forecast...

Mid 6s is the finishing zone. Damage limitation for nearly everyone. The persistence of the end of month cold projection has been notable, even if the nature of that cold has changed from continental to Pm.

Are you going by Hadops or stubbornly refusing to drop Manley is your start point