January C.E.T

[Stu_London]

Last July and August were below average. The second half of 2007 was the coolest for 11 years. It is noticeable that even the above average months in the second half of 2007 were not especially warm. January looks well and truly set to be the first significantly above average CET month since last April.

Still almost certain to be cooler than 2007 though

Indeed, and it would just continue to reinforce the point that for all that we've had a cold month in the last eight or nine, the cold is never anything like as extreme as the warm is when it comes along.

Counting chickens again there SF - it's the 17th today and we are 1.3C above average. Granted, the mildest spell of the month would appear to be on us, however from about 120 hours onwards the signal is far from certain.

Above average looks nailed on, but we could get back below 1C above average, which is hardly extreme.

[Stratos Ferric]

Still almost certain to be cooler than 2007 though

Counting chickens again there SF - it's the 17th today and we are 1.3C above average. Granted, the mildest spell of the month would appear to be on us, however from about 120 hours onwards the signal is far from certain.

Above average looks nailed on, but we could get back below 1C above average, which is hardly extreme.

Stu, I do wish you'd put your bone down and grow up. I said it "would" continue, not it "will" continue. The subtleties of English are clearly beyond you. If you care to look back a page or so my actual thoughts on the remainder of the month are there for all to see.

Edited January 17, 2008 by Stratos Ferric

[Stu_London]

Stu, I do wish you'd put your bone down and grow up. I said it "would" continue, not it "will" continue. The subtleties of English are clearly beyond you. If you care to look back a page or so my actual thoughts on the remainder of the month are there for all to see.

So you did- I unreservedly withdraw 85 % of my original admonishment.

[Snowly does it]

As we are now over halfway through the month, it looks less adn les slikely that this will challenge the mildest Jan on record, or indeed last years Januray return - Manley would require a little above 8.3 per day from here to achieve last years 7 and Hadley 8.5 or so - either of these would require a two week mild spell akin to the first half of Jan last year - and whilst Fri-Sun will more than fit the bill, it remains an outside bet this can be sustained until the end of the month.

A finish in the 6s does look rather likely so an extremely mild month on the cards - unless we get an inversion and HP over us in which case probably mid 5s for me from here - range 5.2 to 6.8

[Matty M]

As we are now over halfway through the month, it looks less adn les slikely that this will challenge the mildest Jan on record, or indeed last years Januray return - Manley would require a little above 8.3 per day from here to achieve last years 7 and Hadley 8.5 or so - either of these would require a two week mild spell akin to the first half of Jan last year - and whilst Fri-Sun will more than fit the bill, it remains an outside bet this can be sustained until the end of the month.

A finish in the 6s does look rather likely so an extremely mild month on the cards - unless we get an inversion and HP over us in which case probably mid 5s for me from here - range 5.2 to 6.8

Well i woud suggest the mild weather will last till the end of January although some continental influence MAY affect the CET areas towards the end of the period.

But at the moment i would punt for a 6.5-7.0 CET for January, another exceptional month if it were the case, another illustration of the incredible warming of the planet.

[Snowly does it]

Well i woud suggest the mild weather will last till the end of January although some continental influence MAY affect the CET areas towards the end of the period.

Brave call, you may be right, even so I'd question whether even under (over) a Bartlett we can maintain the mid-high 8s required to return a 7 finish.

[Gavin P]

Lets wait and see how much the CET shoots up over the next 3-4 days. With temps perhaps reaching 15-16c, I think the CET could go up by over 1c in the next few days. A +7c CET looks possible to me.

[Stratos Ferric]

I'd certainly agree that the future looks mild rather than cold to the month end. I agree with SM that breaching last year's excesses is unlikely, but it's more probable than a sub 4 right now!

A high finish will obviously decrease the prospects of a rolling 12 month getting sub 10, though there's still three mild / mild-ish months from last year to displace before all the low hanging fruit are gone.

Lets wait and see how much the CET shoots up over the next 3-4 days. With temps perhaps reaching 15-16c, I think the CET could go up by over 1c in the next few days. A +7c CET looks possible to me.

There certainly could be some unusually large movements given that we're now well into H2.

[Snowly does it]

Lets wait and see how much the CET shoots up over the next 3-4 days. With temps perhaps reaching 15-16c, I think the CET could go up by over 1c in the next few days. A +7c CET looks possible to me.

To go up by a degree in a week would require consistent output of 9.1 - possible but unlikely. Maxima of 15 or 16 isolatedly possible but not across the entire CET zone - more likely to the South of the zone, the northern stations will probably drag things back, especially on Saturday and after Sunday we are not as mild by the looks of things. Look at first half Jan 2007 - blowtorch but only just enough to perhaps get us to a 7 finish. This weekend looks exceptional, but not defining.

Thinking further on Jan and the winter in general, obviously we may go up to a 6s finish here but for now and bearing in mind inversions may drop us into the 5.2-5.4ish area (for example) - this would put us 0.2 above the ten year mean (5.4 would) - the same as June 2007 was relatively. What I am saying is, as unexciting as Dec and first half Jan were, this is what you get now, this is winter, this is average in the modern context, the sad thing is the lack of snow down south, the relative mild, recent lack of frosts (down south) etc, none of it is exceptional, as Radiohead might say, this is what you get, this is what you get, this is what you get when you mess with us.

Per the sub 10 12 monther - we really need to lose about 4 degrees Jan-Mar (as I am confident we can look to shed 2 or so from April) - so looking for 6 or lower for Jan, long term average Feb (!) and March (!)

[Stu_London]

as Radiohead might say, this is what you get, this is what you get, this is what you get when you mess with us.

I am really suprised an old tory battleaxe (your words, not mine) has even heard of Radiohead - Kudos

Per the sub 10 12 monther - we really need to lose about 4 degrees Jan-Mar (as I am confident we can look to shed 2 or so from April) - so looking for 6 or lower for Jan, long term average Feb (!) and March (!)

I still think a 2-3 week period sometime between Feb- and Mid March will come in someway below average - and that will seal it

[Snowly does it]

I am really suprised an old tory battleaxe (your words, not mine) has even heard of Radiohead - Kudos

Old in political manouverings. Quite sprightly in terms of the Hit Parade

[Stratos Ferric]

...

Per the sub 10 12 monther - we really need to lose about 4 degrees Jan-Mar (as I am confident we can look to shed 2 or so from April) - so looking for 6 or lower for Jan, long term average Feb (!) and March (!)

April is definitely the month that determines it I think.

I still think a 2-3 week period sometime between Feb- and Mid March will come in someway below average - and that will seal it

In the words of the old style logic problems Stu, necessary but not sufficient. We had a two week cold spell in December and still only landed average. It's not the cold we need nowadays so much as the absence of any mitigating warmth in order to heighten the chances.

[Snowly does it]

April is definitely the month that determines it I think.

Just bank a 5.2 for April and let the winter do its worst huh?

[Stu_London]

Just bank a 5.2 for April and let the winter do its worst huh?

I am thinking

5.8 Jan

3.3 Feb

5.1 Mar

9.9 Rolling Mean Apr07-Mar08

Then probably 9.7 May07-Apr08

[Stratos Ferric]

I am thinking

5.8 Jan

3.3 Feb

5.1 Mar

9.9 Rolling Mean Apr07-Mar08

Then probably 9.7 May07-Apr08

Stu, make your mind up, you said 5.6 and 5.0 on the annual thread - lol. Are you related to SB? We haven't had F+M that low since 96/7, and that year December came in at 2.3 and February at 2.5. Another era. You should sell shares in WiB: you'll be joining the "we're all cooling now" bandwagon before long.

---

EDIT: Looking more widely, the type of J-M total you're projecting has, in the christmas pudding, only occurred amidst a cold sequence. Putting my earlier point about singleton warm months being very unusual (in fact unknown in the christmas pudding), and given the current warming (both assume a mildish January outcome, admittedly) then it's a doubly big ask.

You might be able to talk the economy down, but I doubt you'll talk the climate down. More power to you though for trying all the same. I'd reckon a cumulative Q1 closer to 17C as being around par given where we are right now. Even that, though, would still leave latitude for a normal-ish April to return a sub 10.00 rolling12.

Either way, such was the excess of last April that the margin is wide. Events over the next two months could certainly rule sub 10.00 in, but they'll be hard pressed to rule it out.

Edited January 17, 2008 by Stratos Ferric

[Stu_London]

I am joking really, although an abrupt change is possible if the major upper level warming event occurs (see Steve Murr's thread)

I think we are about 50/50 to go sub 10 in April - if we do, then we most likely go above 10 again in May or June, although there is some downside potential in both of those months especially as La Nina is not great for hot weather in spring and summer.

[Stratos Ferric]

I am joking really, although an abrupt change is possible if the major upper level warming event occurs (see Steve Murr's thread)

I think we are about 50/50 to go sub 10 in April - if we do, then we most likely go above 10 again in May or June, although there is some downside potential in both of those months especially as La Nina is not great for hot weather in spring and summer.

It's certainly very close, and I do agree for all the doom and gloom elsewhere in the needier parts of the model thread that some cold at least is likely in the second half of winter. If anything has been close to reliable in recent winter times, then that is it.

Your point re summer is also a fair one, and might - if borne out - help establish what the realistic general baseline is for us nowadays. It would be quite something to manage two years with cool summers.

[Snowly does it]

It would be quite something to manage two years with cool summers.

And with what looks like being two mild winters you have the basis of an Alannis Morrissette complaint rock classic.

[Duncan McAlister]

Just for.. ahem.. "fun", the 18z would give a CET of exactly 7.0C :lol:

Although this is with numerous double figure minima and 13C days, in fact the temp never dips below 3C in the zone so it's safe to say this is probably the high end of what's possible. Still, would be food for thought....

[Stratos Ferric]

Just for.. ahem.. "fun", the 18z would give a CET of exactly 7.0C :lol:

Although this is with numerous double figure minima and 13C days, in fact the temp never dips below 3C in the zone so it's safe to say this is probably the high end of what's possible. Still, would be food for thought....

It would be food for thought were this April, not January.

It would also be entirely typical than in a month when I punt a bit lower than normal the outcome is off the scale at the other end. My only consolation is that others might be setting N-W records for (sensible) punts gone badly wrong.

[Bobby]

Looks like 2008 is going to start the same way 2007 did - exceptionally mild. Maybe even warmer than last Jan which is saying something. WIB's "mother of all cold spells" hasn't quite come to fruition.

If one month is guaranteed to disappoint in the year it's January.

[Upgrade]

Looks like 2008 is going to start the same way 2007 did - exceptionally mild. Maybe even warmer than last Jan which is saying something. WIB's "mother of all cold spells" hasn't quite come to fruition.

If one month is guaranteed to disappoint in the year it's January.

people keep saying this about Jan but i remember last year being much milder - day after day and nights of 12 and 13s. we've had 9s or 10s this year - its cooler.

[Bobby]

So far true but it's really going to get warm over the next week or 2.

[jemtom]

people keep saying this about Jan but i remember last year being much milder - day after day and nights of 12 and 13s. we've had 9s or 10s this year - its cooler.

What a classic..

[eddie]

What a classic..

Last January the Hadley CET was 8.3C by this point in the month. 2.6C warmer than this year.