January C.E.T

[Jonnie G]

Sorry if this has been mentioned before - but it looks to be the first month with an above average second half since May.

Yes, let's remember what a totally random and irrelevant statistic that one is!

[SP1986]

Whilst not an official assessment of the CET, Interestingly the Net-weather CET showing 7C.

However this will without doubt drop tomorrow, before slowly climbing back up again.

As will the CET itself.

7C still unlikely, but not impossible. 8C every day for the rest of January is very possibe given what will happen toward the weekend. Clearing skies simply wont matter,cloudy skies will make it much milder than predicted in the night time scenario.

[reef]

The Manley value is now 6.6C rounded down after a very mild day yesterday.

http://www.climate-uk.com/graphs/0801.htm

Hadley is still at 6.4C to the 22nd, but will no doubt see at least a 0.1C rise when it updates.

It will be interesting to see how today (24th) affects the value. Temperatures are still 10-12C in the CET zone, so the cool weather wont see much of a dent as mild maximas have been recorded early on. I still also think the weekend temperatures are being underestimated, yesterday (23rd) widely reached 13-15C despite predictions of 10-12C.

The chances of 7.0C are still very realistic.

[Nick F]

Who would've thought we could end up being as mild as last Jan After today, maxes look like recovering to the low teens for a while perhaps until Weds when some cold Pm air is progged to arrive taking back down the maxes into single figures with a possible cold Nerly Thurs next week, though it may not be able to prevent 7C - I think 6.8 or 6.9C would be my bet. Don't like the chances of a sub 10C yearly CET now.

[SP1986]

I think the GFS has certainly downgraded that weekend mild spell so much so, that now it looks like being a cool spell, and whilst the night minimums wont be below 6C in most places, I think now there is little or no chance of 7C CET occurring with the temperature max widely progged as 8-9C

[Stratos Ferric]

I think the GFS has certainly downgraded that weekend mild spell so much so, that now it looks like being a cool spell, and whilst the night minimums wont be below 6C in most places, I think now there is little or no chance of 7C CET occurring with the temperature max widely progged as 8-9C

Not sure SP. The lunchtime releases look fairly mild into next week, only trailing off next week. 7 still looks slightly out of reach, but the candle's still flickering, if faintly. High 6 looks best bet, but still an awful lot higher than we might have expected, and not great news for the chances of a sub 10.00 rolling 12.

[Stu_London]

and not great news for the chances of a sub 10.00 rolling 12.

Still lower than 2006 - as I posted elsewhere, we can afford to be milder than average and still go sub 10 in march or april - Even if we don't there is still time later in the year as La Nina summers are not generally noted for being scorchers

[Scorcher]

Still lower than 2006 - as I posted elsewhere, we can afford to be milder than average and still go sub 10 in march or april - Even if we don't there is still time later in the year as La Nina summers are not generally noted for being scorchers

I'm not sure about that- wasn't 1995 a La Nina year? That summer turned out to be quite a hot one.

[The PIT]

Just had a comparison to last years Jan and we're certainly going to challenge it as the warmest ever. The next five days should almost nail it. It also putting a dint in the Met office Winter forecast if Feb follows the same route.

[Stu_London]

Just had a comparison to last years Jan and we're certainly going to challenge it as the warmest ever. The next five days should almost nail it. It also putting a dint in the Met office Winter forecast if Feb follows the same route.

That's a big if

[reef]

I'm not sure about that- wasn't 1995 a La Nina year? That summer turned out to be quite a hot one.

Summer 1995 came after an El Nino event in 1994/95.

There isnt really a correlation, 1975/76 was a Strong La Nina and the summer was a scorcher. However 1982/83 was a strong El Nino and that was a hot one too.

[SP1986]

2006 was in a different league Stu, it's difficult to compare this January with last years January. In footballing terms Last January was in the "top 4" whilst this January is "the best of the rest", It's certainly been mild though and there can be no arguments there.

Even today is warmer than suggested, and certainly doesnt feel as cold as I expected, currently 9C for example which is still above average

[reef]

2006 was in a different league Stu, it's difficult to compare this January with last years January. In footballing terms Last January was in the "top 4" whilst this January is "the best of the rest", It's certainly been mild though and there can be no arguments there.

Even today is warmer than suggested, and certainly doesnt feel as cold as I expected, currently 9C for example which is still above average

If anything, its well above average here. We recorded a maximum of 11.3C at 12.30am and havent dropped below 6.6C - so an average of nearly 9C. Hardly a cold snap!

I suspect this will be mirrored around the CET zone, we could even see a small rise tomorrow, many areas were still 11-13C at 2am.

[SP1986]

If anything, its well above average here. We recorded a maximum of 11.3C at 12.30am and havent dropped below 6.6C - so an average of nearly 9C. Hardly a cold snap!

I suspect this will be mirrored around the CET zone, we could even see a small rise tomorrow, many areas were still 11-13C at 2am.

Very true, I was actually expecting today to be colder than it has been so I thought that may impact the CET but as you say it's still largely above average and in most parts of the country at this time of year the average temperatures are: Max 6-7C, Min 0-2C about 3-6C as a whole daytime average temperature but today average temps will probably be around 6-9C within the CET zone, taking into account also the mild start to the morning. So I agree there could be a rise, and therefore 7C isnt out of the question perhaps as I'd assumed before (because I thought today would see a drop in the CET)

[The PIT]

That's a big if

Well if you believe FI land it isn't such a big if. Don't La Nina general mean mild Jans and Febs I'm sure someone said so on here at some point.

[Stu_London]

Well if you believe FI land it isn't such a big if. Don't La Nina general mean mild Jans and Febs I'm sure someone said so on here at some point.

The ensembles point to a big cooldown at the turn of the month. Not much point in speculating beyond that point but the recent trend has been for February and early March to be at least as cold as anything else in winter.

[The PIT]

The ensembles point to a big cooldown at the turn of the month. Not much point in speculating beyond that point but the recent trend has been for February and early March to be at least as cold as anything else in winter.

Well for early March tending to be cold as other Winter Months over to Mr Data.

[Snowly does it]

I'd suggest today and tomorrow will be 'neutral' in terms of the CET - there may even be a small drop tomorrow if temps overnight get down like they are threatening to and daytimes are 9-10. If we assume 6.6 Manley and 6.4 Hadley to the 25th (todays values) then 8.7 or 9.5 required for a '7' month - 6.8 or 6.9 it is then. Maxima won't be the key now, cloud cover and minima are the deciding factor for a second 7 - personally I think Manley will struggle and Hadley, no chance. High 6s February to be the saviour of winter

[Optimus Prime]

Well it's warmer then last January here at 7.4c (+3.4c) (7.2c being last years figure)

Northern England has definetely taken some of the heat out of what the CET could have been. I'd be very surprised if the Metoffice figure (after revisions) won't come in at 7.0c or higher.

I don't see how February can do much better. We're in the same situation as last year.

The only difference is the US is experiencing a relatively cold winter.

[Snowly does it]

Well it's warmer then last January here at 7.4c (+3.4c) (7.2c being last years figure)

Northern England has definetely taken some of the heat out of what the CET could have been. I'd be very surprised if the Metoffice figure (after revisions) won't come in at 7.0c or higher.

Actually I'd say the CET is significantly higher than the 'winter experience' of the UK as a whole would warrant. Its certainly not as high in the 'warmest Jans' for the UK as a whole as CET land will be.

I'll be just as surprised if Hadley is above 6.8 - and very surprised indeed if they revise upwards, they haven't done that in over a year.

[Stratos Ferric]

That's a big if

It is, but not nearly so big an if as it would have been had anyone postulated the same just three weeks ago.

Well if you believe FI land it isn't such a big if. Don't La Nina general mean mild Jans and Febs I'm sure someone said so on here at some point.

It's the prevailing wisdom.

[ukmoose]

I'm still amazed the CET is not higher.

We've had many days here well into double figures, hardly dropping at night. Quite a few nights have failed to drop into single figures even and there have been very few nights below, say, 5 degrees to offset any of this absurd warmth.

It's astonishing to me that the CET is not 7 already (as it is on NW tracker of course). Can anyone explain that? Seems a large discrepancy.

Moose

[Snowly does it]

I'm still amazed the CET is not higher.

We've had many days here well into double figures, hardly dropping at night. Quite a few nights have failed to drop into single figures even and there have been very few nights below, say, 5 degrees to offset any of this absurd warmth.

It's astonishing to me that the CET is not 7 already (as it is on NW tracker of course). Can anyone explain that? Seems a large discrepancy.

Moose

The tracker was well ahead of Hadley and Manley before the mild spell. We were still in the '5s' mid month so it would take something unprecedented to leap ' to 7 from there in a week. Its no milder than last year and there was more in the way of 'average' early month to offset. How many days is 'many days'? Compare that to 07 or another mild Jan - we aren't far short of record levels, I am amazed its as high as it is.

[Optimus Prime]

Well I'm not surprised SM.

Saying it's no milder then last year is a bit of a bold and very untrue statement....it's a lot milder then last year. We've had record breaking warm nights for a start and very little frost...only 2 here so far compared to 3 in 2007 and 7 in 2006.

In October I managed 4, 6 in November and 13 in December, all those months were below the average.

I can see the very warm spell continueing through the year, perhaps moderating a little.

[Snowly does it]

Well I'm not surprised SM.

Saying it's no milder then last year is a bit of a bold and very untrue statement....it's a lot milder then last year.

Well, no it isn't - the stats quite clearly show that.

The mild spell has lasted for what, a week? With 2 cooler days. A week does not make a record month, nor a '7' January.

We've had one, poss 2 record mild nights - there was also a record mild night in Jan 2007. The first half of the month ranged from average to a little above average, with one or two mild interludes.