January C.E.T

[Calrissian]

lol, now its 14c in the south of Her Majesty's realm.

CET Jan of 7 ? Two years running, that'd be something for the books indeed.

[jemtom]

Last January the Hadley CET was 8.3C by this point in the month. 2.6C warmer than this year.

I'm not disputing that fact Eddie, just highlighting what a sad state of affairs things are in. Cold Januarys are like hens teeth and even normal Januarys seem to be almost impossible to achieve these days.

[LadyPakal]

Top 10 warmest January CETS:

1916 7.5

1796 7.3

1921 7.3

1834 7.1

2007 7

1733 6.9

1975 6.8

1983 6.7

1898 6.6

1686 6.5

Edited January 18, 2008 by LadyPakal

[eddie]

lol, now its 14c in the south of Her Majesty's realm.

CET Jan of 7 ? Two years running, that'd be something for the books indeed.

Getting to 7C would be extremly remarkable from this point and would take something well outside the bounds of what has happened before.

I wouldn't like to say never, expecially looking at the last 18 months, but 7C is a tall order.

Edited January 18, 2008 by eddie

[SMU]

Well it looks like a 6 horse race...

59 Kentish Man 5.5

12 Mike W 5.8

129 acbrixton 5.8

149 Polar Continental 5.8 -10pts

7 mark forster 630 6.1

102 Roger J Smith 6.3

S

I would go for mid to low 6's at this stage-

Rogers balloon has well & truly taken off....

Edited January 18, 2008 by Steve Murr

[Optimus Prime]

Well my 4.4c is going to be well of. Top 5 mildest January on record looks fairly likely at this stage. One to watch will be the minimas over the next few days, could be some record warm minimas broken.

The CET for the period 18th-23rd looks to average around 10.2c, 6.4c above normal!! So by the 23rd the CET should be around 6.9c, 3.1c above normal.

Finishing number for me would be;

Lowest 4.6c

Highest 8.1c

I'd favour something closer to 7.3c at this stage. The mild westerly pattern locks in...the mildest January on record is a serious prob(os)ability

[Weather-history]

I'd favour something closer to 7.3c at this stage. The mild westerly pattern locks in...the mildest January on record is a serious prob(os)ability

For it to reach 7.6, Hadley would need to have a daily average of 10.0 for the next fortnight. That has never happened during January for that length of time. Even February 1998 couldn't do it (10th -23rd Feb: 9.1)

I would say it would need a truely remarkable mild spell on an unprecedented level to break the record, therefore the record chances are a low possiblity.

If anything the chances of the wettest January on record is more likely.

Edited January 18, 2008 by Mr_Data

[Duncan McAlister]

There are now suggestions of a cool (but not cold) anticyclonic phase after Thursday. Even a couple of air frosts would make a big difference to the outcome, which would be 6.5C going by the 12z. Hopefully the start of a trend, the last thing I want is another January threatening the cold record.

Even though this is a CET thread I can't resist mentioning that Scotland, and even parts of Northern England, will be staying average-cool throughout next week, as we have been through this month.

Edited January 18, 2008 by Duncan McAlister

[Snowly does it]

The CET for the period 18th-23rd looks to average around 10.2c, 6.4c above normal!! So by the 23rd the CET should be around 6.9c, 3.1c above normal.

Finishing number for me would be;

Lowest 4.6c

Highest 8.1c

To reach 8.1, the rest of January would need to average 10.9, its not going to happen, even the mega mild spell you mention is nowhere near enough, in fact its warmer than all but one (last years) Aprils and in line with May temperatures.

I think 7 is desperately hopeful requiring 8.5 - rather milder than your usual January fayre.

6s it is unless we get some sort of inversion or dramatic pattern change in which case 5s is within reach. 4s is out unless that pattern change is also accompanied by some sort of machine which will move us off the Labrador coast.

[ukmoose]

Blimey, I've been away for a couple of weeks and look what happens! Quite a surprise even for a pessimist like me!

Looking at next week, including night time minima, is there a chance that we could break last year's near record warmth for January that we thought might just be an aberration?

At least my guess is on the low side this time. Just as inaccurate though.

Moose

[Snowly does it]

Looking at next week, including night time minima, is there a chance that we could break last year's near record warmth for January that we thought might just be an aberration?

Today, Sunday - yes they are mild enough.

No other day is (possibly Wednesday saying that)

Almost no chance of breaking 7 is my honest opinion. The output is simply not consistently mild enough (it IS mild of course!)

[Don]

Looking like my estimate will be way off for January. I think we'll be looking at mid 6's at the moment.

[ukmoose]

Today, Sunday - yes they are mild enough.

No other day is (possibly Wednesday saying that)

Almost no chance of breaking 7 is my honest opinion. The output is simply not consistently mild enough (it IS mild of course!)

Well the next 5 days seem to be averaging out at around 9.2 for my region SM according to the Beeb with some nights remaining in double figures. May not be accurate of course but seems reasonable given where that high is sitting feeding very warm, moist air over us. Where is the CET at the moment - around 6? No sign of a cool down next week really. Can't be far off 7 by next weekend I wouldn't think?

Moose

[Snowly does it]

Well the next 5 days seem to be averaging out at around 9.2 for my region SM according to the Beeb with some nights remaining in double figures. May not be accurate of course but seems reasonable given where that high is sitting feeding very warm, moist air over us. Where is the CET at the moment - around 6? No sign of a cool down next week really. Can't be far off 7 by next weekend I wouldn't think?

Moose

currently 5.8 on manley and 5.6 on hadley.

i'll be generous and use manley

to be at 7 after sunday week would require 9.3 per day until then. It doesn't look that high - the highest minima are generally held to the south part of the CET with lower temps further north, tomorrow is not quite as mild, Monday night is cool etc etc. 6.5 by the 26th possibly and thats my personal top end for the month.

[Stratos Ferric]

Well it looks like a 6 horse race...

59 Kentish Man 5.5

12 Mike W 5.8

129 acbrixton 5.8

149 Polar Continental 5.8 -10pts

7 mark forster 630 6.1

102 Roger J Smith 6.3

S :lol:

I would go for mid to low 6's at this stage-

Rogers balloon has well & truly taken off....

I don't know which is more staggering. The fact that every single entrant this month may come in low; or WiB's long silence in these parts.

[Stratos Ferric]

Well the next 5 days seem to be averaging out at around 9.2 for my region SM according to the Beeb with some nights remaining in double figures. May not be accurate of course but seems reasonable given where that high is sitting feeding very warm, moist air over us. Where is the CET at the moment - around 6? No sign of a cool down next week really. Can't be far off 7 by next weekend I wouldn't think?

Moose

Indeed. One thing's a cast iron cert from here, January is coming in above par. The only question is by how much?

If January comes in higher than 5.7 then we will have had the warmest consecutive pair of Januarys ever (surpassing 74-75, and 75-76, which together currently hold the mark). By a strange coincidence the same value would give us the warmest five year mean for January ever as well (1733-37 holds the record, not a period anyone would have guessed I suspect).

I'm not disputing that fact Eddie, just highlighting what a sad state of affairs things are in. Cold Januarys are like hens teeth and even normal Januarys seem to be almost impossible to achieve these days.

I think it depends how you reference 'normal'. I would be well within the limits of reasons to propose that this January is perfectly normal.

[Stratos Ferric]

...and the above par outcome also means the recent record of seven months c.f. 10 year rolling mean without an above par month remains unbroken. You do have to go back to 1977 for six consecutive cold months though.

[Roger J Smith]

SF, when you say "every single entrant will come in low this month," do you mean to imply that Craig Evans is the only married participant, because I don't see how it's going to get past his lofty perch at 8.0 C ?

I am not single either, by the way.

However, as you say, the CET balloon is lifting past my perch on the mountain, and disappearing into the stratos-fear above.

By the way, seven horses in a balloon sounds like quite a to-do, and that's leaving out Craig who seems to be in with a shout also (or a whinny).

Shifting metaphors rapidly, my hope is to reel in this month like a big fat tuna and land it on my deck, then try to keep Craig from running off with it.

Seriously, if Hadley really is running a bit behind the NW tracker as I've read here, this very warm period will leave it around 6.5 to 6.8, then it's likely to drift down slightly with the odd day below 5 thrown into the mix. The NW tracker could easily reach 7.1 or thereabouts before it drifts down too. I figure Hadley will end up pretty close to 6.5, but with this slight subjective element nobody can really say for sure where it stands at any given time or where it will officially end up. For example, right now it could be sitting anywhere from 5.7 to 6.1, so that really affects where it might end up.

The NW tracker, I predict, will end up at 6.66 -- thus the beast from the east will be vanquished by a beastly mixture of mP, mT and the unmentionable B.

[Snowly does it]

I think it depends how you reference 'normal'. I would be well within the limits of reasons to propose that this January is perfectly normal.

yes, I thought about this a little way up the thread - the super-mild conditions ahead aside, to this point in the month this Jan has been far from unusual, it fits within about 0.5 degrees of the 10 (and 20) year mean, nothing unusual at all, this is what January now is.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6.1oC cor i guessed too low perhaps even I am underestimating the modern warming winters, nobody will be right it will be higher than 6.3oC

[Stratos Ferric]

SF, when you say "every single entrant will come in low this month," do you mean to imply that Craig Evans is the only married participant, because I don't see how it's going to get past his lofty perch at 8.0 C ?

I am not single either, by the way.

However, as you say, the CET balloon is lifting past my perch on the mountain, and disappearing into the stratos-fear above.

By the way, seven horses in a balloon sounds like quite a to-do, and that's leaving out Craig who seems to be in with a shout also (or a whinny).

Shifting metaphors rapidly, my hope is to reel in this month like a big fat tuna and land it on my deck, then try to keep Craig from running off with it.

Seriously, if Hadley really is running a bit behind the NW tracker as I've read here, this very warm period will leave it around 6.5 to 6.8, then it's likely to drift down slightly with the odd day below 5 thrown into the mix. The NW tracker could easily reach 7.1 or thereabouts before it drifts down too. I figure Hadley will end up pretty close to 6.5, but with this slight subjective element nobody can really say for sure where it stands at any given time or where it will officially end up. For example, right now it could be sitting anywhere from 5.7 to 6.1, so that really affects where it might end up.

The NW tracker, I predict, will end up at 6.66 -- thus the beast from the east will be vanquished by a beastly mixture of mP, mT and the unmentionable B.

Yes, a slight frustration with Hadley is that any current data tends to be indicative at best - but keeping everyone slightly in the dark serves, I am sure, to make the competition much more interesting for those who are anywhere close to the mark. It also opens up a whole new avenue of discussion with which to fill these pages re where Hadley is relative to various other trackers available.

yes, I thought about this a little way up the thread - the super-mild conditions ahead aside, to this point in the month this Jan has been far from unusual, it fits within about 0.5 degrees of the 10 (and 20) year mean, nothing unusual at all, this is what January now is.

Alas!

[Weather-history]

yes, I thought about this a little way up the thread - the super-mild conditions ahead aside, to this point in the month this Jan has been far from unusual, it fits within about 0.5 degrees of the 10 (and 20) year mean, nothing unusual at all, this is what January now is.

Scotland and Northern Ireland will probably be different though.

Edited January 19, 2008 by Mr_Data

[Stratos Ferric]

Scotland and Northern Ireland will probably be different though.

Definitely, and that always looked very much on the cards, but in a way even that tells a story. I have said elsewhere earlier this month that an abiding memory of this month might well be, for those of us who remember different times, that is SHOULD have been colder than it was. We can never know, but I can't help speculating on what this month might have been like if everything else was the same bar the 1.5C or so that we've gained in mean temperature since the late 70s.

[Kentish Man]

If January comes in higher than 5.7 then we will have had the warmest consecutive pair of Januarys ever (surpassing 74-75, and 75-76, which together currently hold the mark). By a strange coincidence the same value would give us the warmest five year mean for January ever as well (1733-37 holds the record, not a period anyone would have guessed I suspect).

1975/76 I believe was also a La Nina year but in fact was the last mild winter before the largely cold winters between 1976/77 and 1986/87. Even in that year Feb was cooler than Jan and managed a couple of easterly spells as did early March. The question is whether this winter may be subtly hinting (southerly jet, cooler zonality etc) at the impending end of the current warm run or whether we are still in a middle of an unprecedented (at least since CET records began) warming cycle. Thats why the January stat SF mentions above is quite interesting. If next year (and the one after) manages another warm one then we are really into new territory imo.

Hadley today is 5.8C (Jan 1 -18)

[Calrissian]

1975/76 I believe was also a La Nina year but in fact was the last mild winter before the largely cold winters between 1976/77 and 1986/87. Even in that year Feb was cooler than Jan and managed a couple of easterly spells as did early March. The question is whether this winter may be subtly hinting (southerly jet, cooler zonality etc) at the impending end of the current warm run or whether we are still in a middle of an unprecedented (at least since CET records began) warming cycle. Thats why the January stat SF mentions above is quite interesting. If next year (and the one after) manages another warm one then we are really into new territory imo.

Hadley today is 5.8C (Jan 1 -18)

1. I find it odd that you extrapolate that because we are currently having the 2 mildest consecutive Januarys ever recorded, that this by default might means we are moving to a cooler phase.

Thats a weird logic. Maybe you'd like to elaborate on that.

2. So, we've got 2 super-mild Januarys in a row. You suggest that 'if next year and the one after' are also mild, that is new territory.

*I thought we ARE in new territory anyway. I refer you to the fact that you did already mention we've got 2 mild Januarys.

---

The thing is, the deniers (and I will not shun from that term) are seemingly forever pushing forwards their 'ohh, we need another few years of this, and then I'll consider it....new territory'.

I've not trawled last Januarys CET thread (anyone got a link?), but I'd guess there would be people in there who would have claimed if next January was 'as mild', they consider it new territory, and yet who are now yet again suggesting 'ohh, another year or so'.

--

Meanwhile, London city is a mild 13-15c, day and night. Its supposed to be winter, its more like a mild late spring/Aprils day.

*ohh, and in case you wonder, I was (like many others here) suckered in by the hysterical cold rampers in late Dec' and went for a 4.5c CET. How could I be so naive and 'forgetful' that winters are now generally mild ?

An interesting year ahead.