January C.E.T

[Terminal Moraine]

Unfortunately the Boy Terminal crashes into a mid-table position following a desperate

hopecast for January ( and possibly also for February the way the current models are looking).

Edited February 3, 2008 by Terminal Moraine

[Stratos Ferric]

Unfortunately the Boy Terminal crashes into a mid-table position following a desperate

hopecast for January ( and possibly also for February the way the current models are looking).

We're all old romantics at heart TM!

When I threw open the curtain in the guest room this morning (I'm still in there since one of the cats weed all over my bed - long story) I thought I saw remnant snowdrifts on the neighbours' drive across the lane. When I put my lenses in and went to open the curtain in my room I realised it was just the white painted stones along the bottom of his fence.

Edited February 3, 2008 by Stratos Ferric

[summer blizzard]

You're having a good start SB: keep it up. I did point out to you last year that sometimes your re-forecasts moved you well away from what would have turned out to be far more accurate initial projections. Maybe simplicity is king?

The problem is i use two different forecasting methods and then use the median value, this worked well last year because after April started using the method in May), i don't think i was more than 0.7C out until January, hopefully February will see me back on track.

[Snowly does it]

December = joy, january = forgot to follow Roger, February - have already lost the plot with a hopecast - first one in 13 months, but already looks costly. Coldest month since 1997, hmmmmm, foolish

[chionomaniac]

Can't believe I'm top at my first attempt especially after my January guess was 1.4c out. I'll make the most of it as there is only one direction to go now. I'll probably pass Roger on the stairs as he climbs to the top.

c

[Roger J Smith]

Yeah, well, I'm not on the stairs mate, I am in the balloon you see floudering around looking for a wee break in the winds to go for launch.

At first read, I was confused about how you could have different lists of annual and seasonal leaders, since the whole thing so far is the same two months.

Then I realized, probably the seasonal uses different rules for point scoring. I suspect that my December forecast was on the wrong side of some normal being used, is that the deal here? (5.5 the guess, 4.9 the actual).

Whoops, there I go saying guess again.

[Roger J Smith]

Too late to edit the above, but I see now what happened with these rankings. Summer of 95, I think it was, entered December but not January so they are not eligible in the seasonal comp. That's why the lists are different.

I was stumped for a while about the UID list as well.

[kold weather]

Good call Roger, I wouldn't have betted that Jan would be so mild after an ok December, though strong La Nina winters do tend to have above average Jans this one was well above the norm for even strong La Ninas!

[J10]

Too late to edit the above, but I see now what happened with these rankings. Summer of 95, I think it was, entered December but not January so they are not eligible in the seasonal comp. That's why the lists are different.

I was stumped for a while about the UID list as well.

Indeed to be in the season comp, you must enter all 3 months in that season, but for the year comp, you only need to enter for 10 months, i.e. only allowing for 2 missed entries.

[Stargazer]

I decide to go with the the BBC averages for London. I know they're probably not accurate but they're the best I have.

There's no point using the averages for the last 6 years on my records (some information is lost anyway) because that would be taking into acount the recent warming.

But I agree, I have a sneaky superstition that 2.0c minimum maybe slightly to high while maxima too low but I don't have any other way of getting a figure more akin to the areas average outside of London.

Although there is a site that holds records back to 1974 with daily temperatures for each day of the month but some data is missing particularly upto 1999 so it would probably disort the figure to greatly.

Just to show how greatly different this is from January 2006;

I think there are some long-term averages for Reading available, but none of them for free as far as I know. The nearest site to us quoted by the Met Office is Wisley, and I would expect Reading's averages to be similar, perhaps with daytime temperatures a little lower:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ave...tes/wisley.html

Roger Brugge has published 1961-90 averages for his station at Hurley, near Maidenhead (I think he moved house after that) - I would expect Reading to be a little warmer because it's an urban environment, and for a further increase for 1971-2000:

http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~brugge/hurley.html

I always wondered where the oft-quoted January average maximum for London of 6.0 deg C or thereabouts comes from (I've also seen 6.1), when most individual sites report an average of well over 7.0 (for example, Greenwich http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/ave...greenwich.html). Perhaps one or two sites in the London area were really that cold in 1961-90 (although I'd be very surprised if 1971-2000 came out so cold)?

[Optimus Prime]

Globally it was a pretty average year in terms of temperature;

Land came in very very slightly below normal while Ocean was slightly above. But what a contrast with last year! Land was easily the warmest on record. It was around 1.8c above normal.

Still, all of western Europe and Scandinavia was extremely mild, probably one of the warmest Januarys ever. As was Russia, India and much of Australia and southern Japan.

However Asia as a whole had an unprecedentedly severe January. Generally around 5.0c below normal but some parts were as much as 10c below. A huge contrast to last year for which it was equally or greatly warmer in average terms there.

Eastern parts of America was very mild while the west was cold. South America came in close to average or above. Two Greenland stations were well below and Alaska endured a severe January also.

It was also well below normal in parts of Africa. Particularily Niger and the countries to the west.

Overall the picture looks remarkably better worldwide then it did last year and any January this Century so far. Overall it was the coldest since about 1995/1996. Although land alone it was the coldest since the early 80s when the last negative anomaly was recorded.

[Stratos Ferric]

Do you mean "month" OP? I thought we were rewriting the records there for a moment.

...Overall it was the coldest since about 1995/1996. Although land alone it was the coldest since the early 80s when the last negative anomaly was recorded.

Good and useful summary. That last line is the most interesting feature for me.

[Optimus Prime]

Do you mean "month" OP? I thought we were rewriting the records there for a moment.

Yes, sorry aboout that. I meant to say start to the year but the cursor did it's usual random thing and went down a line so I had to delete that bit and forgot to re-enter it in.

Keyboards on cheap laptops aren't that great to be honest!

[Lettucing Gutted]

Does the arrangement of the cool and warm anomalies obey the La Nina signature or has other factors such as Global Warm distort the usual La Nina signature?

[Gavin P]

That looks pretty much sport on to me Craig. Perhaps you would expect Russia to be colder, and western Europe to not be so absurdly warm, but overall, that looks in-line with La Nina, IMO.