January C.E.T

[Potent Gust]

Is there still a chance that this January could be record breaking? Or is it looking unlikely now?

[eddie]

Is there still a chance that this January could be record breaking? Or is it looking unlikely now?

There is virtually no chance that the January CET will be record breaking.

The record is 7.5C set back in 1916. Today and the next 4 days would have to average over 12C. The warmest January day in the CET series is 11.6C.

Edited January 27, 2008 by eddie

[The PIT]

At the moment the 6th warmest Jan we've recorded since 1955. Another rise today I think the GFS and the Beeb have got the temps wrong for tomorrow and will be higher than predicted then a bit of damage limitation after that. For Sheffield we're going to come at around 6.0C to 6.2C.

Probably end up around 6.2C - 6.3C Hadley and 6.3C - 6.5C for Manley.

[Stratos Ferric]

Are you going by Hadops or stubbornly refusing to drop Manley is your start point

Manley was 6.7C to the end of yesterday. Hadley was 6.5C. I assume that if you can be bothered to see past your continuing, and I have to say rather juvenile, bickering you'll be able to see which scale I'm using. Unlike you I'm very happy to go with the majority, even if I happen not to agree with it.

There is virtually no chance that the January CET will be record breaking.

The record is 7.5C set back in 1916. Today and the next 4 days would have to average over 12C. The warmest January day in the CET series is 11.6C.

Agreed: still unprecedentedly warm consecutive months though.

[Stu_London]

Agreed: still unprecedentedly warm consecutive months though.

December 2007 wasn't unprecedented

[reef]

December 2007 wasn't unprecedented

He wasnt talking about December 2007, but rather January 2007 and January 2008 being warm consecutive months.

Speaking of which, Manley is 6.8C to the 27th and Hadley has caught up to 6.7C. Its looking like there wont be much movement from here, so not quite 7C, but another exceptionally mild January, the 3rd in 4 years.

http://www.climate-uk.com/

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Stu_London]

He wasnt talking about December 2007, but rather January 2007 and January 2008 being warm consecutive months.

ah that explains all - I should point out that they are consecutive Januaries not consecutive months in case anyone else is similarly confused.

probably right with the rest of this month although the cold snap might knock a 10th off on the last day.

February looks like being sub zero for a short while at least

[Stratos Ferric]

ah that explains all - I should point out that they are consecutive Januaries not consecutive months in case anyone else is similarly confused.

probably right with the rest of this month although the cold snap might knock a 10th off on the last day.

February looks like being sub zero for a short while at least

Apologies Stu, the original post wasn't clear if you hadn't been following the thread all the way through - but as Mr D spotted, my comment was re succesive Januarys, not immediately consecutive months, and followed on from previous comments I'd made. 2007 + 2008 now stand a long way clear in terms of positive anomaly of any previous pair, and with that go a number of other cluster records.

Start of Feb does look cold, with a fair chance that Saturday night will be coldest of the winter to date, and perhaps the coldest for two or three years IF we happen to have a bit of snow cover.

[ukmoose]

The tracker was well ahead of Hadley and Manley before the mild spell. We were still in the '5s' mid month so it would take something unprecedented to leap ' to 7 from there in a week. Its no milder than last year and there was more in the way of 'average' early month to offset. How many days is 'many days'? Compare that to 07 or another mild Jan - we aren't far short of record levels, I am amazed its as high as it is.

How many days is 'many days?' SM. Not sure, but there have been even more since then. 7,8,9 days maybe into double figures? Perhaps even 10 or 11. 2,3 ? staying in double figures overnight? 10 nights maybe dropping no lower than 8 or 9? No nights below zero at all.

I am guessing - but I know it has been a very mild January indeed down here and I think the CET is only as low as it is because it has been colder than that further north. A big north/south split I would venture.

Moose

[Snowly does it]

How many days is 'many days?' SM. Not sure, but there have been even more since then. 7,8,9 days maybe into double figures? Perhaps even 10 or 11. 2,3 ? staying in double figures overnight? 10 nights maybe dropping no lower than 8 or 9? No nights below zero at all.

I am guessing - but I know it has been a very mild January indeed down here and I think the CET is only as low as it is because it has been colder than that further north. A big north/south split I would venture.

Moose

Probably a big split yes.

And yes, its been generally mild since I last posted.

Has not felt like a record Jan by any means - mild without being exceptional is how it has felt to me.

[Roger J Smith]

I am amusing myself by calculating the RJS safe zone as the month winds down.

Assuming Hadley is now 6.7 as they say on their website, and projecting that it will be 6.7 at midnight (30:00z) then my safety zone for CET temps 30-31 Jan is ...

29 x 6.7 = 194.3

6.3 to 7.1 the safe zone

i.e., totals of 195.3 to 220.1 degree days

1.0 to 25.8 accumulated degree days 30-31

Safe zone therefore 0.5 to 12.9

This will eventually expand to absolute zero to internal temperature of Sun by late 31st, assuring safety even if civilization ends first.

So glad I moved from 6.7 by the way, that would have left things more in the hands of the Hadley revisionists who are probably easier to bribe from the UK than Vancouver. B)

[Stratos Ferric]

Probably a big split yes.

And yes, its been generally mild since I last posted.

Has not felt like a record Jan by any means - mild without being exceptional is how it has felt to me.

It's funny isn't it: I'd tend to agree, but memory can play tricks as well. This month is for all intents and purposes about the same as Jan 07 (accepting that 'feel' is a very poor gauge of temperature), yet I'd agree that it hasn't felt so extreme. There's no doubt though that much, if not all, of the difference c.f. '07 is down to coolness further north: 1.5C would account for around 0.5C overall. On that basis the south has been every bit as warm as last year. Maybe last year was slightly more humid with it, for all that it was drier.

Probably a big split yes.

...

It's looking like around 3C from top to tail of the UK, which is not exceptional, but I suspect fairly unusual nowadays. It's certainly enough to explain why Scotland, particularly higher ground, has seemed to have a fairly wintry month whilst down south it's been spring - again. We seem to go from autumn to spring now (in the south) without passing through Winter.

[Kentish Man]

Manley is on 6.9C this morning (6.85 rounded up) and with Hadops to follow later today probably at around 6.75 it is looking quite possible that this month will finish in the top ten of Januaries in the CET table going back to 1659. If the month on revised Hadley finishes on 6.6 or above it will definitely do so. As I type this I can see two daffodils over the other side of the road which have been there a few days now. I can never recall that in January before in Kent. We are warming folks.

[Lettucing Gutted]

I can never recall that in January before in Kent. We are warming folks.

Yeah. To parody "Iceagenow": "The world will end not by ice but by fire"

[Upgrade]

Maybe last year was slightly more humid with it, for all that it was drier.

i think this is probably right. we also had very stong SW winds and gales, real "blowtorch" stuff.

however this year there has been more sun, i think .

all the daffs are coming out in St James Park, which is a first time in January in the 10 years i've lived in London. perhaps the sun has warmed the ground more than last year?

Edited January 30, 2008 by jimmyay

[Stratos Ferric]

i think this is probably right. we also had very stong SW winds and gales, real "blowtorch" stuff.

however this year there has been more sun, i think .

all the daffs are coming out in St James Park, which is a first time in January in the 10 years i've lived in London. perhaps the sun has warmed the ground more than last year?

The gardeners' rule of thumb is around 5C for growth if I remember rightly, though some plants have cycles that are temperature independent, or at least not triggered by such a warm threshold. In times of yore frost was reasonably reliable, so that the ground never really warmed for long enough for growth to be stimulated. Nowadays, not only is frost less reliable, but there are plenty of days when ground temps never fall below 5C. Hardly surprising that species are moving polewards and enjoying much longer growing seasons.

Two Januaries in the top ten consecutively should have a return period of around 900 years - assuming flat climate. Either climate isn't flat OR it's more bad luck synoptic folks, depending on what you choose to believe.

[Upgrade]

The gardeners' rule of thumb is around 5C for growth if I remember rightly, though some plants have cycles that are temperature independent, or at least not triggered by such a warm threshold. In times of yore frost was reasonably reliable, so that the ground never really warmed for long enough for growth to be stimulated. Nowadays, not only is frost less reliable, but there are plenty of days when ground temps never fall below 5C. Hardly surprising that species are moving polewards and enjoying much longer growing seasons.

Two Januaries in the top ten consecutively should have a return period of around 900 years - assuming flat climate. Either climate isn't flat OR it's more bad luck synoptic folks, depending on what you choose to believe.

i think its about 7 degrees for growth of grass but still, we have had a remarkable number of 9-12 degree days again this year.

return period of 900 years? wow. we do live in special times ! who knows what february will bring.

[reef]

Hadley has updated and is running at 6.7C to the 29th. Today and tomorrow could see a small drop, so 6.5 - 6.6C looks to be the landing zone.

Whether we see an adjustment at the end of the month is actually quite debateable. Last January the Hadley value (6.98C) was actually milder than the Manley (6.89C). As I understand it the Hadley series uses 3 sites (Pershore, Rothamsted and Stonyhurst) versus the Manley (Oxford District and Lancashire Plain), so one could assume that the Manley would actually be more likely to be cooler come the end of the month due to a heavier weighting of the northern station?

However, either way its another exceptionally mild January.

[Scorcher]

i think its about 7 degrees for growth of grass but still, we have had a remarkable number of 9-12 degree days again this year.

return period of 900 years? wow. we do live in special times ! who knows what february will bring.

5 degrees is the figure I have always heard too, as long as the temperature doesn't drop below 5C you are likely to see at least some growth in the grass.

[Weather-history]

Two Januaries in the top ten consecutively should have a return period of around 900 years - assuming flat climate. Either climate isn't flat OR it's more bad luck synoptic folks, depending on what you choose to believe.

Which begs the question, what is the return figure for those Aprils of the 1940s?

1943: 3rd warmest (2nd warmest at time)

1944: 7th warmest (5th warmest at time)

1945: 10th warmest (8th warmest at time)

1946: Joint 19th warmest (Joint 15th warmest at time)

Edited January 30, 2008 by Mr_Data

[Jonnie G]

It's looking like around 3C from top to tail of the UK, which is not exceptional, but I suspect fairly unusual nowadays. It's certainly enough to explain why Scotland, particularly higher ground, has seemed to have a fairly wintry month whilst down south it's been spring - again. We seem to go from autumn to spring now (in the south) without passing through Winter.

I'd have thought it will be at least 4C difference between the met office's warmest and coldest climatic regions of the UK this January. The average difference between the Warmest and Coldest climatic region is 2.6C for January.

Edited January 30, 2008 by Jonnie G

[damianslaw]

All I can say about the CET for this month is in two words sods law!

After 6 months of either slightly below, near and not hugely above average months that in all earnest were marked by their absence of extremes it was just typical that January our mid winter month had to revert back to type and be ridicuously above average again, I really had hoped that January could redeem itself this year, however, alas it has dissapointed greatly.

January has dissapointed for so long now (last decent wintry Jan being 1997), and in this respect I feel over the last 10 years has been the biggest let down of all the months. Next year I really will be expecting better!

[Jonnie G]

All I can say about the CET for this month is in two words sods law!

After 6 months of either slightly below, near and not hugely above average months that in all earnest were marked by their absence of extremes it was just typical that January our mid winter month had to revert back to type and be ridicuously above average again, I really had hoped that January could redeem itself this year, however, alas it has dissapointed greatly.

January has dissapointed for so long now (last decent wintry Jan being 1997), and in this respect I feel over the last 10 years has been the biggest let down of all the months. Next year I really will be expecting better!

I guess people at Dalwhinnie or Tomintoul in the highlands would say this January's been okay with snow cover for around half the month. Do we have any members from these places?

[cheeky_monkey]

All I can say about the CET for this month is in two words sods law!

After 6 months of either slightly below, near and not hugely above average months that in all earnest were marked by their absence of extremes it was just typical that January our mid winter month had to revert back to type and be ridicuously above average again, I really had hoped that January could redeem itself this year, however, alas it has dissapointed greatly.

January has dissapointed for so long now (last decent wintry Jan being 1997), and in this respect I feel over the last 10 years has been the biggest let down of all the months. Next year I really will be expecting better!

if you include this jan...only 1 out of the last 21 have been more than 1c below normal (1997)..but 12 have been more than 1c above normal!!

[Optimus Prime]

My January review;

Extremely mild, only very slightly cooler then 2007. Very mild first few days, cold for 2 or 3 days with the remainder of the month remarkably warm. Record high maxima and minima on several days. Quite wet also and rather dull. Mean maxima was easily warmer then 2007 and was frequently in double figures. Very few frosts, about the same as 2007.

Mean maxima; 9.4c, 3.4c above average

Mean minima; 4.8c, 2.8c above average

Lowest temperature -0.1c (6^th)

Highest 13.8c (19^th)

Highest minima 12.4c (19^th)

Lowest maxima 2.6c (3rd)

Rainfall 58mm 7% above normal

Number of frosts; 5

Snow cover None

Ice days None

January_2008.rtf

Edited January 31, 2008 by Optimus Prime