January C.E.T

[kold weather]

Alot is still going to depend on exactly what type of zonality is the more dominant. The models do seem to be slowly showing milder options and so I've got to be more inclined to say a CET between 4.5-5.5C.

Funny if it ends up being low 5's because thats about where most modern strong La ninas have ended up. Yes we aren't quite at strong but we are far closer to the top end of mod then the bottom end...also ironic given the December CET came within 0.3C of the strong La nina average as well!

[Hiya]

Alot is still going to depend on exactly what type of zonality is the more dominant. The models do seem to be slowly showing milder options and so I've got to be more inclined to say a CET between 4.5-5.5C.

Funny if it ends up being low 5's because thats about where most modern strong La ninas have ended up. Yes we aren't quite at strong but we are far closer to the top end of mod then the bottom end...also ironic given the December CET came within 0.3C of the strong La nina average as well!

What are the Feb and Mar CET averages for strong La Nina out of interest?

[kold weather]

Feb is about the same as Jan but I've not looked at March to much to be honest and by that point La Nina should have decayed enough to make the moderate La Ninas more useful guidence I'd have thought.

[Kentish Man]

A bit an upwards hike on Manley this morning to 5.0C (Jan 1 - 7).

[Roger J Smith]

This January CET seems to be heading for the upper reaches of the table, I would not change my 6.3 punt if given the chance, although I can foresee great variability beyond the 23rd, so I'm hoping it gets to about 6.7 or thereabouts, as I suspect there will be one or two quite cold days near the end of the month.

As I've been banging on relentlessly, the stormiest period of the winter may well be 20-23 Jan and with the set-up reasonably derived from all available guidance, this can hardly be anything but a climax to a longish mild spell with minor interruptions. These interruptions are not really doing much damage to the high CET anyway, just the CIT and the CST would reflect most of these 12-hour cold spells.

That blockbuster high was the undoing rather than the foundation for many cold CET forecasts, in my estimation -- it showed up for the retro-party a day or two before the scheduled dates, and like a bowling ball on a bean-bag chair, it just sat in the middle of the Eurasian flow and both ends pretty much had to puff up a little, even though the Atlantic was trying to be co-operative with the depressed jet, this just eventually plays into the mild regime by turning north around France and keeping the UK on the wrong side of the storm parade (for cold predictions, that is).

I don't see this situation changing very much until the connection is broken from a mild North American flow to the central Atlantic and beyond, and that could take two weeks with the flow sinking over western North America and forcing the jet to remain strong through the southeast states. Flow reminds me of 1974-75 which I don't think is celebrated very often at SACRA headquarters.

If this keeps up all month, even Craig Evans is in with a shout, which would be a victory for satire. Steve's list above may have temporary comfort, but the balloon is going to rise beyond that ledge on the mountain, the question is, will it ever come back down?

[chionomaniac]

A brave call Roger, the overnight high minima may work in your favour. I don't know with this cool zonality but it seems that every time I look it does seem a little less cool.

c

[Weather-history]

. Flow reminds me of 1974-75 which I don't think is celebrated very often at SACRA headquarters.

I don't really agree with that Roger. That was far milder and classical Bartlett. This zonality is less mild than that and indeed could be called cold zonality in the far north at the moment. For this to be as mild as last January then the zonality has to be a lot milder than currently.

[Stratos Ferric]

Feb is about the same as Jan but I've not looked at March to much to be honest and by that point La Nina should have decayed enough to make the moderate La Ninas more useful guidence I'd have thought.

Don't tell me somebody has consigned WiB to the compost bin!

[shuggee]

The Times takes another view on that SF:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle3134355.ece

[Stratos Ferric]

The Times takes another view on that SF:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle3134355.ece

Not changing sides again is he. Never let it be said that he doesn't like to follow a winner! lol

[PersianPaladin]

The Times takes another view on that SF:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weat...icle3134355.ece

Tbh...I'm not convinced that there is any definite link between strong La Ninas and high global temp anamolies in mid-latitudes.

More evidence needed.

Edited January 8, 2008 by PersianPaladin

[summer blizzard]

I changed my punt to 4.9C in post 64, i npoticed that is not in Steves list!!!!!

As for the CET, the CET looks to be somewhere between 4C and 6C by the 20th, and i expect a pattern change to more blocked conditions around that time, so 3C to 5C looks good at the moment in my opinion.

[Snowly does it]

I changed my punt to 4.9C in post 64, i npoticed that is not in Steves list!!!!!

As for the CET, the CET looks to be somewhere between 4C and 6C by the 20th, and i expect a pattern change to more blocked conditions around that time, so 3C to 5C looks good at the moment in my opinion.

I honestly think thats an extremely optimistic view of the final figure SB - I cannot see any way of obtaining an outturn of 3 from where we look set to be by mid-month - it will probably require a second half of between zero and 1 as it looks set to be easily 5+ by the 15th/16th

For me the range is more like 4 to 6.5 depending on whether we get a cold spell later in the month.

We'll see

[chionomaniac]

Latest manley is 5.3c. Shooting up like a hot air balloon.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley is on 4.9C today and continues to run a little below Manley at present.

[Marduk]

So far is Stockholm very mild at 0'c as avg, i believe that it will be at 0'c or just above like some very mild januarys in the 90's, I think it will go on and whole Europe will get exceptional high temps, due to continous westerly winds and block Siberian air from the east and from the north, i'll go for a CET of 9'c and i think it will go on for the whole winter.

Edited January 9, 2008 by Sillkalven

[J10]

Just a reminder for those who want to vote regarding which CET to use for this year's competition, and a reminder this it is very close at the moment.

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...p;#entry1162254

[Roger J Smith]

It is deadly quiet in here, surely there is something we should be arguing about?

I'll go first -- looks to me like the CET will struggle up to the high sixes by about the 20th, then try to stay there for a few days. A lot of indications of very mild weather followed by some kind of strong high, but will it have an inversion to offer, or just be a Bartlett to add insult to injury?

I'm hoping for another two-day wintry blast, just to keep the death threats to a minimum, and leave my CET forecast intact.

Where are the usual protagonists here, winter holidays I suppose? Or have people just lost the will to go on?

[Snowly does it]

It is deadly quiet in here, surely there is something we should be arguing about?

I'll go first -- looks to me like the CET will struggle up to the high sixes by about the 20th, then try to stay there for a few days. A lot of indications of very mild weather followed by some kind of strong high, but will it have an inversion to offer, or just be a Bartlett to add insult to injury?

I'm hoping for another two-day wintry blast, just to keep the death threats to a minimum, and leave my CET forecast intact.

Where are the usual protagonists here, winter holidays I suppose? Or have people just lost the will to go on?

I am here Roger and I will argue with you. To reach (for example) 6.7 by the 20th will require a return from here on Manley of 7.9 (above record levels) and rather more on Hadley. Its simply not that mild nor showing it to be - there is no Bartlett to keep the flow Azorial (made up word), I would say 6 is nearer the mark with a return of 6.5 for the next 10 days to reach that level or possiby high 5s.

I am afraid I dont see any very mild weather (maybe some along the southern coasts and occasionally milder furhter north) - mabe some 10s with 6s overnight, but we need that every single day to get to high 6s.

I think we can start to feel confident this will not be a below average month in the absence of anything remotely cold for the next week or so.

[TEITS]

You may think im mad but I still wouldn't write off a below average month.

Suppose the ECM is right and around the 22nd we start picking up a bitter NE,ly. Now with a pool of -10 uppers and snow cover in the CET area then min temps can easily drop to below -10C with max temps being restricted to -3C. Imagine the effects these temps would have on the CET if such temps remained for the end of the month!

I know the models aren't suggesting this at the moment but IMO they could well do in a few days time and the type of temps I describe is very realistic should we see the Greenland HP ridge S.

[Snowly does it]

You may think im mad but I still wouldn't write off a below average month.

I certainly don't think you're mad!

I don't 'think' we will get back below average - but thats why I said 'feel confident' rather than writing it off which I did in December to my cost.

It would take a very wintry spell - a classic as it were, to turn it around from where we look to be by about the 20th

[reef]

It seems to me that we are sleepwalking into a well above average month in the CET zone. Although a potent cold spell could send us below average, we could quite as easily find ourselves on the recieving end of a very mild January before we know it.

The averages required to reach the following values by month's end:

2.0: 0.3

2.5: 1.1

3.0: 1.8

3.5: 2.5

4.0: 3.3

4.2: 3.6

4.5: 4.0

5.0: 4.8

5.5: 5.5

6.0: 6.2

6.5: 7.0

7.0: 7.7

7.5: 8.5

Id say almost anything between 3.0C and 7.0C is possible at this stage. I have a feeling above average is most likely though.

[Jonnie G]

I certainly don't think you're mad!

I don't 'think' we will get back below average - but thats why I said 'feel confident' rather than writing it off which I did in December to my cost.

It would take a very wintry spell - a classic as it were, to turn it around from where we look to be by about the 20th

Yes, and IF we get a classic, this month will be remembered as a good winter month with perhaps a below average CET. Perhaps with the global wind anomalies falling, and this low GLAAM business or whatever it is, we're more likely to see either persistent southerlies or persistent northerlies. Let's hope it's the latter, and should such a pattern change come to pass around the 20th then it will have been called remarkably well by our resident experts!

It is deadly quiet in here, surely there is something we should be arguing about?

I'll go first -- looks to me like the CET will struggle up to the high sixes by about the 20th, then try to stay there for a few days.

Nice piece of hopecasting there Roger. The CET will NOT be in the high sixes by the 20th. It would require a pretty exceptional mild spell to get there by the 31st, obviously I'm hoping it doesn't!

[Glacier Point]

ECM Ensemble mean would suggest just something shy of 5 from here on in, possibly a suggestion of a few members dropping down values towards month's end.

My landing zone at this point would be 4C - 5C.

http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html

[eddie]

Although it's starting to look less likely it's still far too early to write off a below average January.

Ignoring the models for a moment and looking at past Januarys up to the 10th.

The highest temperature we have ever got to from being <=5.5C by the 10th was 6.4C.

The lowest temperature we have ever got to from being >=5.5C by the 10th was 2.2C.

Last year/highest/lowest:

January 2007 was 8.1C by the 10th and finished on 7.0C

January 1916 was 8.3C by the 10th and finished on 7.5C

January 1795 was -2.8C by the 9th and finished on -3.1C (The next year, 1796, the CET was 7.3C!)

Looking at the 06z GFS, the CET is going to fall today and tomorrow (3C) and probably rise again slightly on Sunday (6C).

Monday and Tuesday both look like coming in at 7C and the next three days after that around 5C. That would leave us at around 5.3C

The rest of Janary would then need to average less than 2.5C for us to come in below average. Very achievable.

My gut feeling is that we will finish around 4.5C though.