January C.E.T

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Barring further late entries, this is the February list - over 100 entrants again!

31 pall taul -0.4

10 jimmyay 1.2

36 Timbo 1.4

114 beng 1.5

27 kippure 1.7

92 tinybill 2.0

96 Jonnie G 2.1

119 stormchaser1 2.5

110 david16 2.6

87 La Nina 2.7

63 BLAST FROM THE PAST 2.9

93 smith25 2.9

128 THE EYE IN THE SKY 2.9

74 BUSHY 3.0

146 Great Plum 3.0 -10pts

4 adamjones416 3.1

89 Mammatus 3.1

90 Norrance 3.1

130 Simon Swales 3.1

48 noggin 3.2

84 Gavin P 3.2

109 JJB McCabe-Deluxe 3.2

52 Anti-Mild 3.3

78 Snowyowl9 3.3

26 kold weather 3.4

58 Snowsure 3.4

19 Duncan McAllister 3.5

44 Sillkalven 3.5

62 zak robinson 3.5

85 Snowhope 3.5

46 Rollo 3.6

72 Glacier Point 3.6

14 Barry 3.7

16 mufc 3.7

50 mark bayley 3.8

67 damianslaw 3.8

116 Terminal Moraine 3.8

9 ghrud 3.9

51 neforum2 3.9

55 StormMad26 3.9

75 phil n.warks 3.9

99 Osborne One-Nil 3.9

107 James M 3.9

142 Hiya 3.9 -10pts

21 Lightning Hunter 4.0

24 summer blizzard 4.0

47 Lady Pakel 4.0

117 DR Hosking 4.0

54 Memories of 63 4.1

45 Snooz 4.2

98 TomSE20 4.2

125 shuggee 4.2

65 Snow Leopard 4.3

70 Cal 4.3

97 Polar Gael 4.3

112 John-Acc 4.3

123 ned 4.3

147 Tommyd1258 4.3 -10pts

20 snowmaiden 4.4

40 Optimus Prime 4.4

57 The Calm before the Storm 4.4

124 MegaMoonFlake 4.4

95 DAVID SNOW 4.5

101 Mr Data 4.5

104 RAIN RAIN RAIN 4.5

127 Calrissian 4.5

131 IRON-BRU 4.5

38 suffolkboy 4.6

69 Stargazer 4.6

94 Stu_London 4.6

115 windswept 4.6

126 Northants Snow 4.6

6 The Pit 4.7

18 osmposm 4.7

39 eddie 4.7

105 slipknotsam 4.7

43 SteveB 4.8

49 Magpie 4.8

106 Don 4.8

132 Mark H 4.8

133 Stratos Ferric 4.8

143 Joneseye 4.8 -10pts

17 sundog 4.9

35 Potent Gust 4.9

37 Paul Sherman 4.9

100 jimben 4.9

103 Nick F 4.9

108 RedShift 4.9

120 Timmy H 4.9

148 Mr Maunder 4.9 -10pts

29 ukmoose 5.0

76 tesaro 5.0

144 Steve Murr 5.0 -10pts

11 Cymru 5.1

22 Atlantic Flamethrower 5.1

68 Persian Paladin 5.1

41 chionomaniac 5.2

113 mk13 5.2

42 Matty M 5.3

53 Stephen Prudence 5.4

122 reef 5.4

23 swfc 5.5

59 Kentish Man 5.5

12 Mike W 5.8

129 acbrixton 5.8

149 Polar Continental 5.8 -10pts

7 mark forster 630 6.1

102 Roger J Smith 6.3

61 Craig Evans 8.0

whats the number before your name mean? :o im 7 lol, sorry new to this. ppl in 140's have 10 pts

Edited January 1, 2008 by mark forster 630

[Roger J Smith]

Mark, that number is a person's "weather IQ."

Mine is about 50, I think.

No, seriously, the number is the post number in the thread where the said prognostication first appeared, and is used to settle the rank order for those who are tied (earlier entries get the higher positions). Since those who were late came in with post numbers in the 140s, they are not Weather Einsteins necessarily but just remembered late and are being penalized 10 points (per day). This is to prevent some wise-ass like myself from entering on the 30th and coming closer than half the field. :o

[Thundery wintry showers]

Sorry for the lateness again, I keep forgetting! My punt is 4.4C.

[Kentish Man]

The first 2 days of the month have come in at 6.1C at Hadley

[Stu_London]

Climate UK (Manley) to 3Jan08 - 4.7C

A fall likely today and then it will probably be a case of some days not moving other days edging up as nights are likely to be largely above freezing in the zone

[PB22]

Ooops, I forgot! I'll go for 5.3C.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Ah so this is where this topic has been hiding, right down the bottom of the page. On the 2nd of Jan i issued my forecast and predicted a CET of 4. I know it is the 5th but i made the prediction on the 2nd so i dont no the penalties for late entries so do i get fined for entering now or for predicting on 2nd? (proof is on blog that it was issued on 2nd)

many thanks

SM06

[Stratos Ferric]

Ah so this is where this topic has been hiding, right down the bottom of the page. On the 2nd of Jan i issued my forecast and predicted a CET of 4. I know it is the 5th but i made the prediction on the 2nd so i dont no the penalties for late entries so do i get fined for entering now or for predicting on 2nd? (proof is on blog that it was issued on 2nd)

many thanks

SM06

Please Sir, the Dog ate my homework book...

Honestly SM; you can't have died looking for the thread, even though it was labouring under an unusual title. I say rules is rules, otherwise anarchy breaks out.

[snowsure]

Please Sir, the Dog ate my homework book...

Honestly SM; you can't have died looking for the thread, even though it was labouring under an unusual title. I say rules is rules, otherwise anarchy breaks out.

Quite right SF. I have no time for people who look for an excuse when they have been found lacking.

Keep anarchy at bay and fine SM the full amount!

[West is Best]

This month is looking very interesting. We had moans about 'artificial' cold last month because of the high pressure. This time we have a lot of polar maritime synoptics, with the PFJ south of the UK and mild progged in FI and not so far materialising: the story since last June.

What we have at the moment is also the bucking of recent trends: months have been starting mild and then getting cold. This month we're around about average with the 1971-2000 mean. With more pm air progged it's looking exceedingly interesting. Can a westerly winter month turn in a below average figure? Some will laugh at the very suggestion, but I reckon the answer's 'yes' ...

[kold weather]

Hard to say LN...on its own I have my doubts simply because the atlantic is a good 1-2C warmer so its going to require the cold zonality to stay for quite some time and not revert to type, which has been a pretty tough feat over the last 20 years it has to be said.

I'd say right now something between 3.5-5.5C looks like but I'd guess if zonality stays then the probably something close to the middle. For now it looks like one mild day and one cool/cold day which should keep things close to average till the 15th it appears.

[Optimus Prime]

If the synoptics persist it could turn out to be quite a cold first half in Scotland and possibly very wintry in high ground.

A very less extreme version of January 1984 in the north perhaps.

Mild for the south. Average temperature from the 6th-10th looks to average somewhere around 5.6c. So the CET should be around 5.0c by the 10th.

[The PIT]

This month is looking very interesting. We had moans about 'artificial' cold last month because of the high pressure. This time we have a lot of polar maritime synoptics, with the PFJ south of the UK and mild progged in FI and not so far materialising: the story since last June.

What we have at the moment is also the bucking of recent trends: months have been starting mild and then getting cold. This month we're around about average with the 1971-2000 mean. With more pm air progged it's looking exceedingly interesting. Can a westerly winter month turn in a below average figure? Some will laugh at the very suggestion, but I reckon the answer's 'yes' ...

Hopefully you're going to be right but some how I think not to get a below average month we're going to need something more potent not air coming across a warmer than normal sea.

[Stratos Ferric]

If the synoptics persist it could turn out to be quite a cold first half in Scotland and possibly very wintry in high ground.

A very less extreme version of January 1984 in the north perhaps.

Mild for the south. Average temperature from the 6th-10th looks to average somewhere around 5.6c. So the CET should be around 5.0c by the 10th.

It's very possible that if the pattern persists we'll see some marked N-S variation. As kold says, a corridor around average looks likely; sub 3 isn't looking an obvious outcome, though since we've not had one of those for a decade we shouldn't be surprised. Sub 4 would be notable in its own right and still cold by the standards of the even larger teapot, but even that would probably require something colder than what we've currently got projected.

Hopefully you're going to be right but some how I think not to get a below average month we're going to need something more potent not air coming across a warmer than normal sea.

I think that's fair. A generally Pm® feed on its own will not be without some warm sector passages. You can't get a really cold month without either a straight arctic or polar feed, and that being sustained for a few days.

Edited January 6, 2008 by Stratos Ferric

[Kentish Man]

Manley is on 4.9C (Jan 1 - 5) rounded down. This is up 0.2C since yesterday.

[SNOW-MAN2006]

Please Sir, the Dog ate my homework book...

Honestly SM; you can't have died looking for the thread, even though it was labouring under an unusual title. I say rules is rules, otherwise anarchy breaks out.

My god a massive up-rising from the almighty SF. I just thought i would try and see if i could get those extra few points.

SM06

[Lettucing Gutted]

Can a westerly winter month turn in a below average figure? Some will laugh at the very suggestion, but I reckon the answer's 'yes' ...

It is possible for a westerly winter month turn in a below average figure however our chances are greatest if SSTS to our west fall considerably below average. :lol:

It's very possible that if the pattern persists we'll see some marked N-S variation.

Yeah a kind of winter version of the cold north versus the warm south scenario.

Edited January 6, 2008 by Craig Evans

[Snowly does it]

Relatistically I think we are talking mid 5s by mid month, maybe a little higher. Not easy from there to get below average but we managed it in December form a higher baseline so perhaps. An inversion would probably achieve more in this respect (from longevity point of view) than an Easterly or Northerly for my money, unless we can get low minima over snowcover.

I went for 4.4, I fancy 5.4

[Stratos Ferric]

My god a massive up-rising from the almighty SF. I just thought i would try and see if i could get those extra few points.

SM06

You'll have SB making multiple punts next!

Relatistically I think we are talking mid 5s by mid month, maybe a little higher. Not easy from there to get below average but we managed it in December form a higher baseline so perhaps. An inversion would probably achieve more in this respect (from longevity point of view) than an Easterly or Northerly for my money, unless we can get low minima over snowcover.

I went for 4.4, I fancy 5.4

Certainly how it's starting to look, at the very least. On the basis of the 18z 6C plus is in bounds, though cooler air is never far away. This may turn out to be one of the biggest N-S splits we've seen in the numbers for some time IF we stay in this zonal flow. I'd still be surprised, even if we are >6 at the mid point, if we stayed that high though, but from that sort of mid point value it's hard to imagine much below average as a potential outcome, unless something fairly staggering happens.

[Snowly does it]

Certainly how it's starting to look, at the very least

Yes, the maxima are nothing staggering for a 21st century January and will 'feel' cold often in strong winds but minima are woeful for coldies. Occasionally getting down to average minima. There are one or two clangers coming up too where we hit the warm air and strong winds overnight - I think 6s is a little high from here for mid month - after all we need to average 6.9 per day to get there by the 15th and maxima probably won't allow that on most days..... we'll see

[Lettucing Gutted]

Yes, the maxima are nothing staggering for a 21st century January and will 'feel' cold often in strong winds but minima are woeful for coldies. Occasionally getting down to average minima. There are one or two clangers coming up too where we hit the warm air and strong winds overnight

Yep. Same old story again. It is the dreaded high minima's which are the star of the show again. They were the main reason for the warm anomalies of the first 6 months of 2007.

Edited January 7, 2008 by Craig Evans

[SMU]

Sadly for the low punters this is where I see the current landing point ( Although I know this is very early in the game-- A quarter of the way through-)

43 SteveB 4.8

49 Magpie 4.8

106 Don 4.8

132 Mark H 4.8

133 Stratos Ferric 4.8

143 Joneseye 4.8 -10pts

17 sundog 4.9

35 Potent Gust 4.9

37 Paul Sherman 4.9

100 jimben 4.9

103 Nick F 4.9

108 RedShift 4.9

120 Timmy H 4.9

148 Mr Maunder 4.9 -10pts

29 ukmoose 5.0

76 tesaro 5.0

144 Steve Murr 5.0 -10pts

11 Cymru 5.1

22 Atlantic Flamethrower 5.1

68 Persian Paladin 5.1

41 chionomaniac 5.2

113 mk13 5.2

42 Matty M 5.3

53 Stephen Prudence 5.4

122 reef 5.4

23 swfc 5.5

59 Kentish Man 5.5

Awaiting Sf's mid month projection-- Tempted after recent signatures to go a little lower????

S

Edited January 7, 2008 by Steve Murr

[Snowly does it]

Sadly for the low punters this is where I see the current landing point ( Although I know this is very early in the game-- A quarter of the way through-)

Yes, although unless we get a pattern change late month to colder, I'd park my bicycle at the upper end of that grouping. Can't currently see it starting with a '4'

[TEITS]

Looks like im going to be miles out .

Seems the CET zone will nearly always be in the warm sectors of these LP systems so the max temps could hit around 10C and with the unsettled, windy theme will prevent very little frost from forming.

Still if I didn't predict a well below average month everyone would think there is something wrong with me

[Stu_London]

Yes, although unless we get a pattern change late month to colder, I'd park my bicycle at the upper end of that grouping. Can't currently see it starting with a '4'

I would be inclined to agree although it can change quite quickly even at the end of a month.

For example, if we were at 6C on the 25th and we got a inversion which led to days with a net value of 0C through to the end of the month, we could get down to 4.8C

Climate UK shows a drop yesterday to 4.7C btw

Edited January 7, 2008 by Stu_London