January C.E.T

[damianslaw]

Some eye openers for January which maybe we all should have thought about before we guessed this month.

Since the Very Cold Jan of 1987 there have been (of course) 20 Jans, of these

Only 9 have been below 5c

Only 4 have been below the 71-00 average of 4.2

Only one (1997) falls beneath 3 degrees

The average is just shy of 5 degrees for the last 20 years.

4 years in 20 below average, pretty pathetic

February has had 5 below average in the last 20 years, ad December has been below average more often than not (11 times)

In the rolling 10 years averages, December is now about equal with Jan and Feb for cold.

Mid Winter has been truly disfigured!

Yes the figures confirm how january in the last 20 years has more often than not been a relatively mild month and in some respects has been eclipsed by february and during this decade even december - oh whatever happened to january?....

[Stratos Ferric]

...

Mid Winter has been truly disfigured!

It's worse than that. The bottom has been sliced off winter such that mid winter no longer exists in figurative terms.

[Kentish Man]

Climate UK (Manley) is up to 5.6C today (Jan 1 - 14).

The CET looks like it will continue to edge up for a while yet. If the mid latitude high verifies in about a weeks time that may start to drag things back although that depends where it sets up shop.

Edited January 15, 2008 by Kentish Man

[Weather-history]

Some eye openers for January which maybe we all should have thought about before we guessed this month.

Since the Very Cold Jan of 1987 there have been (of course) 20 Jans, of these

Only 9 have been below 5c

Only 4 have been below the 71-00 average of 4.2

Only one (1997) falls beneath 3 degrees

The average is just shy of 5 degrees for the last 20 years.

4 years in 20 below average, pretty pathetic

February has had 5 below average in the last 20 years, ad December has been below average more often than not (11 times)

In the rolling 10 years averages, December is now about equal with Jan and Feb for cold.

Mid Winter has been truly disfigured!

If you look at the figures around the 1860s to 1880s, December was a colder month than February on average.

1861-90 February average: 4.5

1861-90 December average: 3.8

[SP1986]

The thing that grabs me is that what we percieve to be cool, is actually milder than we think.

For example this current January is nearly 6C thus far (+2C above average) yet last years January was 7C its closer than it seems.

Quite interesting really.

[reef]

The thing that grabs me is that what we percieve to be cool, is actually milder than we think.

For example this current January is nearly 6C thus far (+2C above average) yet last years January was 7C its closer than it seems.

Quite interesting really.

Indeed, I mentioned this a few days ago. It seems we're 'sleepwalking' into to a very mild month. I can see the CET rising over the next few days and last years 7C isnt out of reach. The remaining days would require an average of 8.2C, certainly possible if the progged Bartlett hangs around.

[LadyPakal]

It's only been mild down south, different story up here in the north. A month of two halves...

[shuggee]

Indeed LP - very close to average in Scotland and even bang on in NI and below in Eire:

http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

But alas, our friends in the CET zone are having a poor time of it by comparison.

[LadyPakal]

Well, they are closer to the tropics than us up here, within reach of the arctic circle. :lol:

Finally Hadobs have updated themselves. I was beginning to think they'd forgotten. Currently on 5.4 (1.9 over).

[Potent Gust]

Indeed, I mentioned this a few days ago. It seems we're 'sleepwalking' into to a very mild month. I can see the CET rising over the next few days and last years 7C isnt out of reach. The remaining days would require an average of 8.2C, certainly possible if the progged Bartlett hangs around.

It is obviously going to finish quite a bit above average but I don't think it will end up warmer than last January. I think the up and coming high pressure will see to that with a number of frosty nights to end the month

[Stratos Ferric]

The thing that grabs me is that what we percieve to be cool, is actually milder than we think.

For example this current January is nearly 6C thus far (+2C above average) yet last years January was 7C its closer than it seems.

Quite interesting really.

It's a good observation. Reading some of the more excitable members' posts in December you'd think we'd narrowly escaped an ice age, when, in fact, we landed about average. I think that percpetion tends to be biased by whether there has been any cold at all. Last January was Sahara Desert in cold terms, this year (and December) has been part Gobi. We often say it, but the final score really tells little about the journey, unless it ends very high or very low.

It's only been mild down south, different story up here in the north. A month of two halves...

It always looked like being thus: may not continue so to the end of the month though.

[Nick F]

I'd say that it has been close to the monthly average for Scotland though, even though it has been cold and snowy at times - it's not out of the ordinary over the longer term scheme of things - though cold perhaps compared to this time last year. Although Philip Eden's regional temp anomaly breakdowns only go up to the 10th - they do suggest that temps have been close to average so far over Scotland:

http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

Certainly been milder than average over England and Wales - with the SE showing the greatest anomaly. Interestingly the Irish Rep is fractionally below par up to the 10th. Anyway I'm straying a little from the CET I guess

[The PIT]

The scary thing we're supposed to be in cool zonality and we still clocking up well above temps so far. I presume the warm Atlantic isn't helping much here though.

[Snowly does it]

It's worse than that. The bottom has been sliced off winter such that mid winter no longer exists in figurative terms.

Alas that we should be in it at the end I guess.

Sub 2c the new holy grail? (sub 3c?!)

As for January - this weekend looks likely to put paid to any possiblity of below average and risks springboarding towards high 6s month end (not by the 23rd though Roger )

On balance, just under 6

[Stratos Ferric]

My early month projection. Not quite so bleak as SM's, though I never like projecting off the 18 run. Still a lot of margin for error but we're a long way from the nuclear winter some were expecting. Whilst not absolutely putting paid to a sub 10.00 rolling 12 months, an above par January makes it less likely.

Low-mid 5s is the GFS projection for the month. I still fancy that this might be a tad high, but I don't see any real prospect of sub 4.5 now.

...Anyway I'm straying a little from the CET I guess

Nick, in the recent history of people straying from topic on this thread, be assured, you're not only well within the known universe; you've scarcely even left our atmosphere. Hubble would struggle to track some of the more wayward stuff we've had.

Alas that we should be in it at the end I guess.

Sub 2c the new holy grail? (sub 3c?!)

As for January - this weekend looks likely to put paid to any possiblity of below average and risks springboarding towards high 6s month end (not by the 23rd though Roger )

On balance, just under 6

SM, I say it every year, and every year the baseline creeps higher, but sub 2 has, I think, gone for our lifetime. Even 3 is starting to seem like a big ask.

[Roger J Smith]

Some of my earlier remarks on projected CET were based on the NW tracker which currently says 6.0, and I didn't realize the Hadley was this far below it, not sure why it should be either, but that's a different question.

SF, your graph needs a new title, it currently states that we are looking at Nov 07.

I generally agree with your projection if we really are at 5.4 currently, seems like it should be closer to 5.8 after today's warmth.

Could go a bit higher than your bump around 21-23 if several days have very high mins as I suspect they will.

Then all depends on how much if any inversion shows up later.

My projected landing zone is 5.2 to 6.6 with 5.9 the best bet.

Glad they talked me out of 6.7, that would be a bit of a climb. B)

[Stratos Ferric]

Some of my earlier remarks on projected CET were based on the NW tracker which currently says 6.0, and I didn't realize the Hadley was this far below it, not sure why it should be either, but that's a different question.

SF, your graph needs a new title, it currently states that we are looking at Nov 07.

I generally agree with your projection if we really are at 5.4 currently, seems like it should be closer to 5.8 after today's warmth.

Could go a bit higher than your bump around 21-23 if several days have very high mins as I suspect they will.

Then all depends on how much if any inversion shows up later.

My projected landing zone is 5.2 to 6.6 with 5.9 the best bet.

Glad they talked me out of 6.7, that would be a bit of a climb. B)

I flatly cannot see the back end of the month as currently progged Roger: we may end up in the low 5s, though possibly for different reasons if so. Equally we may end up a bit either side. Certainly going to be some very wayward guesses this month.

[Kentish Man]

Climate UK (Manley) is up 0.2C today (Jan 1 -15) and now stands at 5.8C

[reef]

Its looking like we're going to be well into the low to mid-6s by the end of play on the 21st. From that point on we would need an average for the final 10 days of -0.4C just to hit average. Without a doubt now that a 5C+ finish is coming up.

I still think 7C is possible if the pattern stays mild, we'd need the remaining 16 days to average 8.1C, not beyond the realms of possibility in the current pattern, though cooler zonal interludes will most likely put a stop to that.

[The PIT]

Yes it's beginning to look a very mild month coming up. My 4.7C punt is looking way way too low. Don't think we'll hit 7C but between 5.6C and 6.5C is probably a good range.

[Snowly does it]

My early month projection. Not quite so bleak as SM's, though I never like projecting off the 18 run.

SM, I say it every year, and every year the baseline creeps higher, but sub 2 has, I think, gone for our lifetime. Even 3 is starting to seem like a big ask.

Much as I hate to say it, I think you're too low this month, but we'll see. All depends on the cloud with the HP that looks likely.

Sub 2 a goner? I'd probably go with that as much as it saddens me. Sub 3 does indeed seem a big ask. And I think we'd probaly need an inversion a la December 07 migrating to a cold source like Scandi to achieve it, for the bulk of the month. (talking generally, NOT about Jan 08, lol)

Friday, Saturday, Sunday if as projected = no sub 5 for Jan 08

[cheeky_monkey]

why is sub 2 a gonner in our life time or sub 3 a big ask??? i dont agree at all and i dont see how either?

[Snowly does it]

why is sub 2 a gonner in our life time or sub 3 a big ask??? i dont agree at all and i dont see how either?

The last 15 years data and the prevaling synoptic patterns. If you don't agree, that's fine, I am not stating a fact after all.

[SP1986]

why is sub 2 a gonner in our life time or sub 3 a big ask??? i dont agree at all and i dont see how either?

A more appropriate question would be, when did you see the last sub 2?

And then perhaps when was the time before that

[LadyPakal]

Sub 2's, since 1900:

1987 0.8

1985 0.8

1979 -0.4

1963 -2.1

1959 1.6

1945 0.4

1942 0.9

1941 0.5

1940 -1.4

1929 1.3

1917 1.6

Not actually very many over 107 years.

Edited January 16, 2008 by LadyPakal