Virtual Storm Chase 3

[Paul Sherman]

As far as I can tell there is a Trailing Cold Front that is cutting off the Cells near to Abilene, better Moisture and Dp's further South near to Senora and San Antonio etc, this seems to be the reason for cells struggling when they get near to I20.

Would loved to have been North East of DFW Today, although if you were down near to San Angelo like we were then getting on the cells quickly before they got a bit stringy would give the best shot of a Nado.

Look at how far the Anvils are gettng blown ahead on the Storms on the Radar.

Paul S

**New Warning coming through**

WARNING

Developing Tornado 6 miles South of Abilene - Think you might be right, the Left Split is hugging the Dryline

Lets hope this is not another Tornado Emergency, Tornado expected near Abilene in 4 minutes.

Look at the cell that has exploded just east of San Angelo :lol:

[Cookie]

the web cam view is looking very wet!! :lol:

have a look at this on the loop and check out 18:40

check out the clouds on the far left!

http://www.ktxs.com/weather/towercam_loop.html

Edited March 18, 2008 by cookie

[Nick F]

Yep ... looks vicious that cell east of San Angelo, here's the warning for Abilene:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX

654 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 652 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 6 MILES SOUTH OF

ABILENE...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...

ABILENE BY 705 PM CDT...

IMPACT BY 710 PM CDT...

HAMBY BY 720 PM CDT...

[Gorky]

My area has really fired up now. 3 Worrying cells 2 with Tor warnings and one starting to show strong rotation. One is actually heading towads Brady but seems to be the weaker of the 3. Of most concern is a storm which has just passed over Medina in Bandera County. Next up is Kerrville in Kerr County, and then it is making a direct bearing for Fredericksburg (you sure you want that Chilli's now Paul? :lol: )

The last of the three has just gone Tor warned nw also. Both southern sotrms showing nice hook echo's from the Laughlin AFB radar site.

Edited March 18, 2008 by Gorky

[Roger J Smith]

Just looking at the new guidance, east Texas looking volatile tomorrow, early start for severe storm development (if tonight's action ever dies out) and a strong peak in activity very close to the Dallas-Fort Worth "metroplex" as we like to call our cities over here (big collection of unaffordable homes, latest definition).

The severe action through Arkansas may be quite tornadic in places but looks more like a heavy rainfall event primarily, whereas the east Texas section is looking highly tornadic to me. I would probably have been chasing somewhere to the west of Fort Worth all day Monday, so the virtual reality would be (for me in my camper van) hitting a campground near Fort Worth or a motel if I could find one with wi-fi, and then assessing the situation at first light with the 12z model run coming in about 8:30 a.m. local time. Then I don't imagine it would be a very long drive to where the action seemed likely to begin. In fact, it might be a short drive to get out of the way of it. :lol:

Come to think of it, I should be down there now instead of here, the most severe weather I am likely to see is a lower than average drizzle layer.

[Nick F]

Just 3 reports of tornadoes yesterday, 2 in TX in Nolan and Coleman counties with no discernable damage, one in AR - with a roof blown off. Been a lot worse MDT risk days in recent months.

Hard to pick somwhere today as a target, but I think I will go for Tyler, TX a 100 odd miles east of DFW. just within the MDT and 15% risk of a tornado area. Could be more lively today IMO - kicking off early though.

[NL]

Thought there would have been more tornadoes from yesterdays

storms with the cap being broken and cloud tops of 40K+, guess

certain dynamics didnt come into play. Today as Nick

has already said looking more lively and severe threat pushed east

so i'll not stray to far away from Nicks Target i'll start in Lufkin 70

mile SE of Tyler.

[Nick F]

SPC have issued a meso discussion for a severe potential watch for SE/E TX this afternoon (or their mid-late morning) - so looking like kicking off severe fairly early - I guess the cap breaking quickly today then:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0722 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MID/UPPER TX COAST...NWD INTO AREAS SOUTHEAST OF

THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METRO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 181222Z - 181415Z

A NEW WATCH SEEMS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT THIS

MORNING...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 15Z.

A STRONG IMPULSE IN THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH NOW

APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWLY ACCELERATING TOWARD THE LOWER

RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AS THIS CONTINUES...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE

THAT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ADVECT NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF

THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS THIS MORNING. ON

THE NOSE OF THIS AIR MASS...ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM

ADVECTION NEAR CONFLUENCE ZONE JUST TO THE WEST OF A 60-70 KT

SOUTHERLY 850 JET STREAK MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE

DEVELOPMENT.

TIMING IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO INITIALLY CONSIDERABLE

INHIBITION. BUT...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING

ACROSS THIS REGION...WELL IN ADVANCE OF UPPER IMPULSE. AND...IT

APPEARS INITIATION OF STORMS COULD OCCUR BY 15-16Z. ONCE THIS

COMMENCES...MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING THROUGH THE 1000-2000 J/KG

RANGE...IN THE PRESENCE OF LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL

HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF

SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES

ARE POSSIBLE...AND MAY AFFECT AREAS NEAR/EAST OF VICTORIA/AUSTIN AND

TEMPLE THROUGH COLLEGE STATION BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

Maybe a traget further southwest towards Bryan/College Station would have been better ... but I will see how it goes.

[NL]

The SPC have issued PDS Tornado watch #131for east Texas and Louisiana until 7pm CDT,

thought they might have upgraded to high risk..

[Roger J Smith]

Front now stalled after moving east through DFW region, probable supercell development now south of Bryan TX around Brenham, moving NNE, would be heading for a position just west of Huntsville TX which is basically about 100 miles NNW of Houston. Other tornadic cells seem to be developing further southwest and might require a further repositioning after the Huntsville area cells come and go in about an hour to 90 minutes.

Would agree that the potential is more "high" than "moderate" but they like to reserve high for large multi-state outbreaks and this will be largely confined to Texas today.

[Nick F]

Well they didn't issue a high risk the day of the Greensburg F5 in early May '07 - even though condtions must have looked ripe as the dry line bulge developed over SW KS, though they did ussue a HIGH the following day - maybe a knee jerk reaction sometimes.

Is some rather potent looking bowing line segments currently NW of Houston towards the DFW area, some of which must be supercellular. My gripe is with chasing this stuff is a total canopy of cloud over much of central and eastern TX:

[NL]

Lapse rates look a bit poor especially at 500 rh only reading of 6.0 what effect will this have

storm development ?

[Paul Sherman]

Just in case you are bored tonight, live streaming coverage from Jonesboro which has Tornado Sirens Blaring live and a Wall Cloud live on Camera Now

http://www.kait8.com/global/video/popup/po...089&h1=24/7

[NL]

Yesterdays moderate risk only produced 2 reported tornadoes,

both quite weak affairs.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

Slight risk today for but instability and again mid-level

lapse rates will be poor, however LL shear will be strong

so possible brief tornado or two could develop.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Gorky]

Flooding appears to be the main concern from yesterday. Several areas reported almost a foot of rain, and amounts of 5" or higher were very widespread. Many rivers are at near record flood levels at the moment with rain still falling.

[Nick F]

The moister the ground gets over the Sern Plains over the next month - the better. From the point of view for decent storms to develop a dry ground doesn't help when the sun really begins to heat the ground in early May ... plenty of low level moisture is always best for severe storm to develop from the surface. Otherwise its high-based/elevated storms - as are seen in the drier areas further west in New Mexico, Arizona etc - which are no good for tornadoes!

[Paul Sherman]

As discussed with Nick on the telephone yesterday, Really think this years Chase is going to take in quite a bit of unchartered Territory this year - namely East of I35

Which is not great for Chasing due to Topography and Jungles, parts of Texas East of DFW Are okay until you get near the Red River of Oklahoma, South East OK Is an absolute Nightmare, as is Eastern and North Eastern OK Up to Mcalister, parts of South East Kansas are quite Challenging around Coffeyville and also Eastern Kansas up to the Kansas City Metroplex, then you have Misery (Missouri) wont even go into that State unless we really have to.

Lets see how the next 4 weeks pans out, but the Texas Panhandle is getting near to Critical State on Dryness.

Paul S

[NL]

THE COMBINATION OF POOR LAPSE RATES AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL

TEMPER WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD BE A POTENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT

ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. WITH 100 PLUS KT 500MB WIND MAX COUPLED

WITH AT LEAST 60KT LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATING FROM TN VALLEY TO MID

ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING...POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL

EXIST WITH EXPECTED STRONGLY FORCED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE.

Isolated tornadoes on the leading edge..? Shame about the cloud cover,

good news for most americans though..!

[NL]

Corpus Christi tornado caught on video.

http://www.kristv.com/global/story.asp?s=8039196

[Cookie]

yesterdays tornadoes

http://www.weathermatrix.net/stormmatrix/tornado/yesterday/

There were 3 Tornado Reports Yesterday*| Today | Storms | Hail | Wind

Time (Z) Strength Location County State Lat Lon Comments

1940 UNK CORPUS CHRISTI NUECES TX 27.71 -97.29 BELOW

EF0 TORNADO STARTING FROM COUNTRY CLUB ESTATES SUBDIVISION NEAR WOOLRIDGE AND STAPLES STREET. DAMAGE PATH 2.5 MILES LONG AND 100 YARDS WIDE AT ITS WIDEST. TORNADO LIFTE (CRP)

0109 UNK 2 N HOLLAND PEMISCOT MO 36.09 -89.87 BELOW

TORNADO REPORTED BETWEEN DENTON AND HOLLAND...NEAR HWYS 61 AND 164 (MEG)

0904 UNK MARRERO JEFFERSON LA 29.89 -90.11 BELOW

*** 1 INJ *** A TORNADO DAMAGED 13 HOMES. SEVERAL LARGE HARDWOOD TREES SNAPPED IN HALF HITTING ROOFS AND CRUSHING A NEARBY CAR. ONE PERSON WAS INJURED WHEN HIT BY A FAL (LIX)

Edited March 19, 2008 by cookie

[Paul Sherman]

Looks like at least a week of Non Severe for the Alley and Plains as the Moisture is flushed down the tube into the GOM

Possibilities of something next Wednesday but even then the Models are completely Scattered.

March has not really produced, and April is just a stones throw away now.

Paul S

[Cookie]

Looks like at least a week of Non Severe for the Alley and Plains as the Moisture is flushed down the tube into the GOM

Possibilities of something next Wednesday but even then the Models are completely Scattered.

March has not really produced, and April is just a stones throw away now.

Paul S

how do this year so far compare to past few years?

[Paul Sherman]

Cookie

January and February this year have been in the Extremely Above Average Category!

Figures for You

Jan 08 Tornadoes = 136

Jan 07 Tornadoes = 21

Jan 06 Tornadoes = 47

3 Year Average = 34

Feb 08 Tornadoes = 232 ( A NEW RECORD )

Feb 07 Tornadoes = 52

Feb 06 Tornadoes = 12

3 Year Average = 25

Mar 08 Tornadoes = 96

Mar 07 Tornadoes = 171

Mar 06 Tornadoes = 150

3 Year Average = 128

The most notable thing about this year is how La Nina influences the Early Spring period with regards to Strong and Violent Tornadoes in the Southern and South-Eastern States during Jan, Feb & March and also Tornado Deaths etc

This year has already seen 69 Deaths from Tors up to March 19th - There were only 81 in the whole of 2007

This year has already had 19 Killer Tornadoes to 19th March - There were only 26 in the whole of 2007

So when you think they have already had 464 Tornadoes up to date and April and May can average nearly 500 between them, you can see what an active year it has been already!

Paul S

[Gorky]

After reading what Paul said about the lack of rainfall, I checked and only the panhandles are under any form of a minor drought at the moment. You can compare the % of each state in drought from this point this year to the same time last year and it appears that things are quite similar (Link: http://www.drought.unl.edu/DM/monitor.html). My main worry might be that in La nina years the focus tends to shift further east towards the unchaseable country, but also tend to be much more active to balance that out 1999 was a nina year and besides the OKC outbreak there wasn't any other really well organised outbreak west of I-35 all year. It was a similar case in 2001 which was a Nina year too I think. conversely, Last spring was El nino and there were many big early outbreaks west of I35. March 28th, April 24th, May 5th, plus the small NM outbreak whose date eludes me. This would be the biggest cause for this shift in weather in my opinion.

[NL]

Lets hope that the panhandle gets some rain soon otherwise chasing could end up like this..!!