Virtual Storm Chase 3

[Cookie]

Cookie

January and February this year have been in the Extremely Above Average Category!

Figures for You

Jan 08 Tornadoes = 136

Jan 07 Tornadoes = 21

Jan 06 Tornadoes = 47

3 Year Average = 34

Feb 08 Tornadoes = 232 ( A NEW RECORD )

Feb 07 Tornadoes = 52

Feb 06 Tornadoes = 12

3 Year Average = 25

Mar 08 Tornadoes = 96

Mar 07 Tornadoes = 171

Mar 06 Tornadoes = 150

3 Year Average = 128

The most notable thing about this year is how La Nina influences the Early Spring period with regards to Strong and Violent Tornadoes in the Southern and South-Eastern States during Jan, Feb & March and also Tornado Deaths etc

This year has already seen 69 Deaths from Tors up to March 19th - There were only 81 in the whole of 2007

This year has already had 19 Killer Tornadoes to 19th March - There were only 26 in the whole of 2007

So when you think they have already had 464 Tornadoes up to date and April and May can average nearly 500 between them, you can see what an active year it has been already!

Paul S

thanks mate was a very interesting read

[NL]

A slight risk has been issued for central and eastern parts of Missouri,

severe thunderstorm and hail, less than 2% chance of a tornado.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Paul Sherman]

Lol

Thats got to be the smallest Slight Risk ever, Good Spot Paul

[NL]

I've been watching it on/off all day hail got up to 2.5" , certainly dos'nt look as threatening now

as it did earlier but as it heads farther east it is expected to encounter more favourable conditions.

Meso now spotted.

[NL]

Here's a bit news that'll cheer up the teams going out chasing in less than a months time.

http://www.mlive.com/news/kzgazette/index.....xml&coll=7

[Cookie]

thanks for the link mate

[Paul Sherman]

Yep

You have gotta Love La Nina Periods. They give the Uk crap winters and Cold Springs, whereas the US Gets so much Snow in Winter they dont know what to do with it and more instances of Destructive Tornadoes and Major Outbreaks, My only concern is how far East these Episodes/Outbreaks are going to be, dont really want to be Chasing in Missouri or Indiana if at all possible, and the Panhandles are now at Critical in the Drought scenario, so major Dust Storms are going to be commonplace if precip does not occur in the next 30 days Better keep those Windows shut LOL

Paul S

[Cookie]

makes life more interesting I suppose

[Nick F]

Here's a bit news that'll cheer up the teams going out chasing in less than a months time.

http://www.mlive.com/news/kzgazette/index.....xml&coll=7

My only concern is how far East these Episodes/Outbreaks are going to be, dont really want to be Chasing in Missouri or Indiana if at all possible, and the Panhandles are now at Critical in the Drought scenario, so major Dust Storms are going to be commonplace if precip does not occur in the next 30 days Better keep those Windows shut LOL

Paul S

Encouraging news NL, as Paul says though, bit worrying the ongoing drought over the western half of tornado alley - particularly the SW end over wern TX and the panhandles/high plains of TX, OK, KS. If we don't see much rain over these areas over the next 30 days - we could be chasing alot further east than we were last year, perhaps east of the I-35 alot of the time towards the 'jungles' and hills of Missouri and Arkansas. We also could be heading alot further north too - bearing in mind they have had lots of rain up north.

Here's the spring picture released by NOAA on the 20th :

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/i...ughtoutlook.jpg

Still - drought now in the W and SW of the chasing terroritory doesn't mean it will last ...

Few text areas from the SPC over the next few days from OK east/NE across the Ohio Valley today then a little further SE tomorrow ... nothing beyond that showing up with some uncertainties with model output - though signs of possible severe weather on Monday over the Plains (mainly east OK/KS/NE. Looks like a major well amplified trough may move in from the Pacific late next week ... so things may pick up again later next week after a ridgy spell.

[NL]

Todays risk has been upgraded to slight as yesterday, risk is mainly for

thunderstorms and large hail less than 2% chance of Tornado.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[Nick F]

Todays risk has been upgraded to slight as yesterday, risk is mainly for

thunderstorms and large hail less than 2% chance of Tornado.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Strange ... was just a 'see text' earlier this morning!

SLGT Mostly over the jungles and hills of Sern MO and Nern AR, would go for target in Ern OK i guess, haven't got a map handy atm though.

[NL]

Yes Nick just changed around noon, looks like most action will be around pretty

unchasable country unless you have one of these..LOL

[Cookie]

Yes Nick just changed around noon, looks like most action will be around pretty

unchasable country unless you have one of these..LOL

[Paul Sherman]

Been keeping an ear to the Noaa Weather Radio this evening and the area of Agitated Cumulus In NE Oklahoma and SW Misery has now erupted into a Potent Squall Line! Large Hail starting to be reported, NL Or Potty will probably post up the Radar as they are better at links than me.

Paul S

[NL]

Been keeping an ear to the Noaa Weather Radio this evening and the area of Agitated Cumulus In NE Oklahoma and SW Misery has now erupted into a Potent Squall Line! Large Hail starting to be reported, NL Or Potty will probably post up the Radar as they are better at links than me.

Paul S

Tornado signature in Delaware county Oklahoma

[Gorky]

2 more north east of Springfield, Mo now too. Last I checked SPC had no outlined area of tornado chance for today. not even a 2%. Will be interesting to see if anything produces.

[Paul Sherman]

Tony Gilbert swears by F5 Data Nathan, and they had a Tor Signature Bullseye near the NW Arkansas / NE Oklahoma and SW Missouri areas by 6pm this evening, but SPC Not buying into this with just Large Hail and 70mph SLW

Paul S

**You can see why the SPC have a low Tornado Chance with the evolution of the South Eastwards plunging Cold Front, may get some LEWP Tornadoes but as we know they are almost impossible to get on due to the Shelf Like structure and HP Look to the Storms, the Storm to be on at the Moment is the one Highlighted by NL, But the area near Musgogee is an absolute Nightmare, lots of lakes with bridges In fact I knew that place rang a bell, In 2005 we nearly got struck by Lightning out of Clear blue skies near there!

[Paul Sherman]

Oklahoma Supercell TEC Produced, Looks like Nick would have bagged early today

Also

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO

652 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHERN WRIGHT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

SOUTHERN LACLEDE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT.

* AT 648 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

TORNADO 7 MILES EAST OF CONWAY...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF LEBANON...

MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN WRIGHT

AND SOUTHERN LACLEDE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF TWIN

BRIDGES...COMPETITION AND LYNCHBURG.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE

DAMAGING HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

Nasty

Paul S

[Gorky]

Hmm I go away for 20 mins and there are now 8 active TOR warnings!

[Nick F]

Wow, I missed an active late evening - typical My broad target of Ern Oklahoma would've paid off - though most the nado reports were in MO. Yesterday's tornado reports:

2332		1 N COUNCIL HILL 	MUSKOGEE 	OK	3557	9565	TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED TORNADO 1 MILE NORTH OF COUNCIL HILL (TSA)
2339		1 S WAYNESVILLE 	PULASKI 	MO	3781	9220	BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OF TORNADO REPORTED NEAR HWY H AND POLLA RD BY 911 CALL. (SGF)
2355		1 E ST. JAMES 	PHELPS 	MO	3800	9160	(SGF)
0020		EDGAR SPRINGS 	PHELPS 	MO	3770	9187	TORNADO REPORTED NEAR EDGAR SPRINGS. TIME ESTIMATED. (SGF)
0105		2 N GLADDEN 	DENT 	MO	3753	9146	TORNADO NEAR HIGHWAY 19 HEADING TOWARDS TOWN OF BUNKER. TIME AND LOCATION ESTIMATED. (SGF)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

These SLGT risks can be a good'n sometimes.

A SLGT risk in SW TX in the Hill Country today, remember we were down here in the first few days of May 2007 and saw nice bit of action on a SLGT near Llano - despite the crap terrain and winding rough roads/lack of roads. Think today I will sit it out at Days Inn, Junction like last year and wait to see what fires then move to it (has wi-fi too) ... the Hotel had a great view on the side of a hill over a river valley looking west.

Today's outlook: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Another SLGT for Sunday over OK, SW KS and Ern MO : http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Monday could see another severe outbreak a little further east than Sunday - though nowt showing on the SPC outlooks. Then after that 2-3 days of death ridge over Mid-West then maybe things cranking up again late next week as another Pacific trough crosses the Rockies and engages with a sfc low over the Sern Plains.

[Paul Sherman]

Sundays Outlook looks a bit tasty from the Recent Model Runs.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0233 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2008

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS

AND OZARK PLATEAU...

...SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE FOUR CORNERS

REGION SUNDAY AND MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT. A BROAD

LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING

MOISTURE NWD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.

THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY

AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE

SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT

PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS

UNCERTAIN...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE

INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM NCNTRL TX ACROSS

OK INTO SW MO. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND SOUTH OF

THE BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR

PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN

OVER THE SRN PLAINS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING

SUGGESTS A SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT COULD DEVELOP IF THE TIMING OF

THE UPPER-TROUGH PHASES WELL WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND THE

STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET LATE SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH INSTABILITY

SHOULD LESSEN NEWD ACROSS SE KS AND WRN MO...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD

ALSO EXIST THERE DUE TO ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG LIFT

ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET.

May be Upgraded to MODERATE If this continues to Verify.

Paul S

[Gorky]

It does look good for a potentially very active early April at the moment. Long range models are showing Low pressure systems traversing the plains until deep into FI with another good candidate for possible severe weather towards the end of next week also. Decent upper level winds are never away from the plains for very long. You just have to wonder if it will last like this through till May... I hope so!

[Cookie]

no more today after yesterdays, an early night for me last night meant as I missed it as well!

[Paul Sherman]

Spring pattern looking well and truly established now with risks all next week by the looks of things.

Good area to Chase tomorrow and i will pick a Location of Altus to start for tomorrows Chase. Think things will kick off from Childress up into Western Oklahoma as a Starting point.

Next risk for Monday slightly further east and some good chases to be had next week as well.

Get your Chase Targets in Guys.

ALTUS for me!

Paul Sherman

[NL]

Some late nights next week...!! I was gonna pick Childress but its a 'dry' county so i'll go for Hollis(hope this aint a dry un too.!)

as a starting point slightly west of Mr Sherman.