Virtual Storm Chase 3

[Gorky]

Oklahoma is all good as far as alcohol goes. I have this map from wikipedia here which will be invaluable when chasing I think

Dark Blue are dry counties. The next shade down are 'moist' counties with the rest having rivers of liqour flowing down every high street and beer towers instead of the usual water towers you see everywhere else. (maybe a slight exageration there )

For me, I'll go for a more northern option starting in Enid and relocating tomorrow morning I may want to move a bit further west towards Fairview but we'll see how the surface low progresses overnight...

[kold weather]

I've got a quick question, what model is the best at progging severe weather parameters?

Anyway a very nice low level jet streak coming through the southern plains, widespread winds of 45-60kts at 850hpa. I think anywhere along the line of strongest upper winds.

The only question mark is timings. The strongest of the winds from the jet streak comes through around 06z however by that time CAPE is on the decrease, shame the two aren't a little better timed otherwise I would be very concerned. However despite not the best timings I've ever seen there is enough there to suggest there is a tornado and severe weather risk.

[Paul Sherman]

Kold I like the NAM, Followed by the RUC then the good old GFS, The Euro Models can be good as well, so lots to choose from, another one is F5 Data that has performed well recently.

Paul S

[NL]

SPC have now upgraded todays risk to slight whats all this about? CORRECTED TO REMOVE SPURIOUS POINT IN SLIGHT RISK LINE

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Edited March 29, 2008 by NL

[Nick F]

I'm going for Woodward, OK for tomorrow's chase target area - t+36 sfc prog has dry line intersection with cold front near here. Models seem to be in dispute to where storms will intiate, many going for far north/NW OK and Sern KS - but this area looks to be ok to me anyway.

Could be a late show anyway tomorrow, lots of caffiene needed!

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

I'm going for Woodward, OK

Yeh no problem, go for it

[Paul Sherman]

Have been looking at all the Models this past hour and most are breaking out the Precip further North, Models have changed quite a bit, still like the Altus to Woodward line South to North, although Central to North Central Oklahoma looks good just as nightfall happens, so 01-06z looking like the prime time for Darkness Tornadoes, some could be strong, looks like the Severe weather will then push North East towards North East Oklahoma and South West Missouri.

Paul S

[Nick F]

Yes. looks like a mostly nocturnal severe potential - I would move more to north-central OK for a target, say Stillwater, based on current NAM-WRF predicts ... a plume of low-level warm moist air advects north through central OK (basically the I-35 corridor) 00z-06z Tues:

LL jet (850mb winds) increases markedly between 00z and 06z Tues:

500mb heights and sfc pressure falling from the west aswell.

.. as a result - we see storms really kick off around 06z (or 00z their time) over central OK - so when we wake up for breakfast we could seing tornadoes touching down over Nern OK/Central KS:

A look at sfc progs shows a dryline bulge developing later today over the TX/OK Panhandle which may trigger some LP supercells just before nightfall and the dryline retreats back west - so all maybe not lost for a target for Wern OK during daylight hours ... but main severe threat looks to be over north central OK and central KS overnight.

[Nick F]

IMO we could be verging on an upgrade to MDT later today for north central OK and south central KS too.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates nick, very good read

[Paul Sherman]

IMO we could be verging on an upgrade to MDT later today for north central OK and south central KS too.

Yep

I posted a few days ago Nick, That this could very well be upgraded to a Moderate, a horrible Nigh-time Moderate at that as well, lets hope OK City gets away with this.

Paul S

[Gorky]

I'm still happy with my choices. I'll move to Fairview now in case we do get an early show with storms firing on the triple point. Enid area would be my target if things held off until well after dark. If storms look to fire before midnight, I'm sure they'll bump the tornado probabilities up significantly at the 20z Day 1 outlook.

[Hilton]

We're off to Clinton for about 2pm and will go on from there (I live in Norman, OK). Would be nice if the fog starts to lift soon, still can't see to the other side of the street.

[Gorky]

It looks the skies are clear over towards clinton and northward so there should be plenty of daytime heating to come. Not sure if it'll be enough for storms before sunset but you gotta try

[kold weather]

Yeah looking like a late night chase so I may catch up this in the morning hours rather than wait up and see what happens!

For now sat images show low cloud over E/C parts of OK in association with some fairly moist air, with some drier air and also more stable air just moving off into W.OK. Coming from the west and spreading into the target zone appears to be some more stable air though ironically the water vapour shows some fairly moist air as well which will no doubt help to develop storms when the forcing arrives as the front pushes down overnight along with the main thrust of the low level jet coming in the overnight hours.

For those placing themsleves in W.OK I'm a little aware of just how close the dry air and therefore stable air is. As it is you may well be along the dryline however some slight eastward adjustements would shunt this of to the east a little towards more central parts of OK. Still for now I'd say central plus the eastern 3rd of W.OK along with central parts of KS looks good for some overnight action as the instablity increases and the cap is eroded.

If I was to pick a spot, and granted I can't say I've done much of this sort of stuff before so it may be badly wrong...I'd go to Blackwell close to the KS border...at least this shouldn't be a murk fest given there is alot of CINH about.

[Nick F]

Sounds a good spot to pick Kold, think I'm happy to stay with Woodward as a starting point - this seems most likely to be the area where the dryline extending south over Wern OK intersects with the trailing cold/warm front - south and west of this looks like remaining well capped and Woodward may remain capped too - so I'll probably be on the move east from there towards the I-35 or NE into south-central KS.

The dry line bulge will most probably just creep east over the TX/Wern OK border before retreating west after dark - but again the atmosphere looks to remain capped near the dry line unfortunately.

[Paul Sherman]

RUC Still breaking out the Supercells just at dark 3z, nasty evening to come in N Central Oklahoma, Good target for a Nighttime Tornado for Darren.

Paul S

[Paul Sherman]

MD Just Issued

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0504

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0316 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL KS THRU WRN/CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 302016Z - 302215Z

IT IS NOT COMPLETELY CERTAIN THAT A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED. BUT...

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.

PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE WRAPPING INTO A WEAK SURFACE LOW EAST

NORTHEAST OF GAGE IS BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR DESTABILIZATION THIS

AFTERNOON. RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT INHIBITION IS BECOMING

NEGLIGIBLE FOR STRONGLY HEATED MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS NEAR THE

DRY LINE...WHERE CAPE IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG.

AND...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR

SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS AN INITIAL WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE LIFTS

NORTHEAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 22-23Z.

CONCERN EXISTS THAT STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING WILL PASS TOO FAR TO

THE NORTH/WEST OF REGION TO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN CONVECTIVE

DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AND...THE SURFACE LOW ALREADY APPEARS

TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF OCCLUDING WITH THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY

OVERTAKING THE DRY LINE. BUT...IT APPEARS THAT A WINDOW OF

OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT

BEFORE SUNSET. BEST CHANCE MAY BE NEAR THE POINT OF OCCLUSION AS IT

DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN SMALLISH THROUGH

SUNSET...AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A RISK FOR

AT LEAST BRIEF TORNADOES IF STORMS FORM. OTHERWISE... LARGE HAIL

AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

[Nick F]

Cumulus fields developing in the sunshine over central/western OK now ... OK Mesonet showing Td's of 66F and Ta's of 76F over central OK (near OK City) so some warm moist air advecting north as predicted.

Talk of a 'gravity wave' on stormtrack arriving across Wern OK this evening which may initiate things, don't know much about these phenomena, but they are indicated in the development of tornadic supercells.

Dryline still way west over Wern TX Panhandle but should approach Wern OK around midnight.

[kold weather]

Well whilst we talk about tonights set-up it should be noted that there is still some actvity occuring in E.Texas with a line of decaying cells, one of these cells appears to have produced a tornado just recently:

c

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA

420 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTHEASTERN SABINE COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...

SABINE PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 418 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF ZWOLLE...OR ABOUT 29 MILES NORTH OF TOLEDO BEND DAM...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

ZWOLLE BY 430 PM CDT...

[Nick F]

Yes, this tornado warning falling under the other seperate SLIGHT risk area over east TX and west LA:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

... interestingly, SPC don't have a tornado probablility over this area. They do have 5% probability within 25 miles of a point for Wern/NW OK and south central KS.

Looks too much of a grunge fest down there though, unchaseable rain wrapped tornadoes:

[Gorky]

A few week radar echoes are starting to show now south of Clinton. Might be the start of something...

[Nick F]

Nice field of cumulus bubbling up over SW Oklahoma now, southwest of Clinton and between Altus and Elk City:

Another cumulus field further east towards southcentral OK too, SW of OK City.

[Gorky]

Some chasers are streaming live here...

http://www.mobilemesonet.com/

Looks like the storm is getting pretty healthy already. I'll reposition down towards kingfisher county for the intercept I think. Might need to move even further south if the storms don't move too fast. I imagine storm motion is not that great with todayy's setup...

Edited March 30, 2008 by Gorky

[Cookie]

Some chasers are streaming live here...

http://www.mobilemesonet.com/

Looks like the storm is getting pretty healthy already. I'll reposition down towards kingfisher county for the intercept I think. Might need to move even further south if the storms don't move too fast. I imagine storm motion is not that great with todayy's setup...

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