Carinthians Latest Arctic Reports

[oldsnowywizard]

yes looking at the archives the forecasted 850 temps are warmer, although the -5 is still quite widespread. perhaps GP will have some insight into why this is happening?

Unfortuantely i cant find any archived pics of 2 temps so cant compare these..i would imagine though the predicted temps arent too far off the norm.. with high pressure stable over the arctic i would have thought that melt levels wouldnt be too far off the norm either.. its the warm plumes that will kick start any major melt.. just like last year. the high where its positioned would just circulate cold air.

the only melt so far is in the expected areas.. the fringes

GW absolutely agree, we need to closely monitor the areas where the multi year ice is curently stacked up.. provided it can stay near Greenland then hopefully we wont lose too much more this summer.. but agreed if it gets flushed out we can start to say goodbye to this ice. hopefully as the ice breaks up it will all pile up on top of itself slowing down the melting process.

we have another month before the major melt should start.

[Iceberg]

Ice concentrations, particularly of the thinner less than 1 year ice are showing real concern atm.

Also certainly backs up CT's graph.

[Gray-Wolf]

Interesting to see the ice 'thinning' again in the area we had the late season 'polynya' in the Bering sea in 2005 (before all the ice their melted in 2006/7) does this suggest inflow from the Pacific through the Bering straights with sub ice upwelling of warmer, more saline waters attacking the ice from below. If you watch the movies of last years melt then the vast clockwise circulation of the pack in this area prior to it's total ablation could be driven by such a current entering the polar basin from Bering and exiting past Greenland, so not all anticyclonic circulation.

It will be interesting to see the pattern of polynya formation within the Arctic basin during the early phase of this years melt to see if it picks out any possible extensions to the ocean currents in the basin.

An interesting 6 weeks in front of us??

[oldsnowywizard]

agree with you there GW.. if you look at the chart you can almost see a circular thinning or break up of ice.. i guess what isnt clear is if the less extent is due to ice melt or breakup due to water currents underneath the ice pack...

CTs chart has nose dived.. i woundnt worry too much.. this is due to a sudden great big hole appearing in the bearing ice.. checking other sources this hole does not exist... phewww

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi OSW !

I'll have a look over the past few days images of my 'beloved' sat images to see if we can see the state of the ice in the straights/sea. It is strange to see such thin ice at such a high latitude though. Surely only warm waters below would lead to such an ice trapped region thinning?

[Iceberg]

The bering is in very bad shape though. although CT's chart looks a little OT.

[Gray-Wolf]

The bering is in very bad shape though. although CT's chart looks a little OT.

From what i've just been looking at the northern coast of Alaska is very ice free but then so is most of both the U.S and Russian side of the straights. The pack is pretty mashed up with clear blue between many of the floes throughout the straights and into the Bering sea behind, still nothing like the C.T. info though.

[doctormog]

From what i've just been looking at the northern coast of Alaska is very ice free but then so is most of both the U.S and Russian side of the straights. The pack is pretty mashed up with clear blue between many of the floes throughout the straights and into the Bering sea behind, still nothing like the C.T. info though.

I think we should wait a few days before jumping to conclusions as, if you thought the CT data for The Bering Sea area was a bit questionable, have a look at the Baffin/NF region...

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...om.region.4.jpg

P.S. The extreme cold which caused the ice fractures in the ice north of Canada isn't especially unusual and all these comments based on satellite imagery in isolation are only valid when produced with imagery at the same time point in previous years as I haven't come across anything to suggest that the current appearance is exceptional. I'd be really grateful if someone has such data for the same date and location for the past few years so we can make a valid comparison.

[carinthian]

The season of Arctic ice melt is about to start. Satellite-derived cloud and surface properties showed that last summer was indeed warm in the Arctic,lack of cloud cover allowed a substantial increase in solar radition to reverse the trend in recent years for increase cloud cover amounts in the Arctic Spring and Summer. Strong correlations with the AO indicate that the rise in surface temperatures and change in cloud amounts are related to large -scale circulation rather than local processes. This summers reading will again be very interesting to compare against the rate of summer ice loss.

C

[Thundery wintry showers]

The anomalous warmth has made it into the Arctic but the +10-15C anomalies that I feared don't seem to have come about, with the greatest anomalies being more like +5-10C in the near periphery of the North Pole.

Looks like cold pooling could regroup in the Arctic over the coming week bringing temperatures down to average for most of the region and maybe a little below in some places.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Scientis...urrent_999.html

The above may prove to be a player in the arctic ocean circulations especially the waters entering through Bering and into the Arctic Basin (helping run the clockwise circulation behind Bering) that has been seen to 'flush out' the single year ice over the past few years.

If the research 'forcasts' are correct then the warming world will strengthen the pattern and ,in turn, put more energy into the arctic circulation.

As you know I have concerns over the remaining 'multiyear ice' nestled in it's 'sanctuary' to the north of Greenland. Last year, at the end of the melt season the mass lurched north and this would now place it directly on the lower limb of the circulation and draw it into the less protected central Arctic sea.

[jethro]

Interesting stuff, cheers GW. My understanding is the fisheries have done an awful lot of research into the PDO, there's quite a body of evidence which shows how the fish stocks vary according to the negative/positive phases of the PDO. As this currently shows clear signs of flipping into it's negative phase, I wonder if this newly discovered current will change too? Perhaps the impacts won't be as bad as you fear?

[beng]

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Scientis...urrent_999.html

The above may prove to be a player in the arctic ocean circulations especially the waters entering through Bering and into the Arctic Basin (helping run the clockwise circulation behind Bering) that has been seen to 'flush out' the single year ice over the past few years.

If the research 'forcasts' are correct then the warming world will strengthen the pattern and ,in turn, put more energy into the arctic circulation.

As you know I have concerns over the remaining 'multiyear ice' nestled in it's 'sanctuary' to the north of Greenland. Last year, at the end of the melt season the mass lurched north and this would now place it directly on the lower limb of the circulation and draw it into the less protected central Arctic sea.

Just speculation on my part, but I can't help wondering whether this circulation was in response to the climax of the positive PDO phase (NASA now believe we have just entered the negative phase) and that this in turn results in a large amount of ice/snow melting in the far North Atlantic - which then leads to a subsequent slowing of the North Atlantic Drift - resulting in the cool phase of the AMO cycle - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7376301.stm

The next couple of years will be interesting and we may see further accelerating loss of artic ice, or a reversal if this is the natural trigger for the cold AMO.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just speculation on my part, but I can't help wondering whether this circulation was in response to the climax of the positive PDO phase (NASA now believe we have just entered the negative phase) and that this in turn results in a large amount of ice/snow melting in the far North Atlantic - which then leads to a subsequent slowing of the North Atlantic Drift - resulting in the cool phase of the AMO cycle - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7376301.stm

The next couple of years will be interesting and we may see further accelerating loss of artic ice, or a reversal if this is the natural trigger for the cold AMO.

Indeed the perturbation cycle commenced Feb 2007. Oceans are now cooling but it may take 5 years to 'see' the real effect.

BFTP

[trevw]

CT seems to have recovered from its blip and be showing more credible data again.. not much in it now between this year and last. I guess the interesting thing will be watching the arctic basin graph in particular?

[stewfox]

Interesting Tongue of Ice in the Atlantic SE of Newfoundland. As far South as The Bay of Biscay!

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/snowNESDISnh.gif

Len

Can someone advise who wants to learn

With regard the snow cover is that at 'ground level'

I didnt think there was any snow left at ground level in USA ?

I also assume the yellow is just ice cover ?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080502/ap_on_...eW7OzktDvIPLBIF

doesn't look good for this summer guys.....

[Optimus Prime]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080502/ap_on_...eW7OzktDvIPLBIF

doesn't look good for this summer guys.....

Yet another over-left trouser legimistic news article.

[ribster]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080502/ap_on_...eW7OzktDvIPLBIF

doesn't look good for this summer guys.....

Lot's of ifs ands or buts in there, if you read the article closely there is very little in the way of fact in there. Still, they have to keep coming up with the sensationalist headlines to keep their funding coming in!

[BARRY]

Yet another over-left trouser legimistic news article.

well said

[ghrud]

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Scientis...urrent_999.html

The above may prove to be a player in the arctic ocean circulations especially the waters entering through Bering and into the Arctic Basin (helping run the clockwise circulation behind Bering) that has been seen to 'flush out' the single year ice over the past few years.

If the research 'forcasts' are correct then the warming world will strengthen the pattern and ,in turn, put more energy into the arctic circulation.

As you know I have concerns over the remaining 'multiyear ice' nestled in it's 'sanctuary' to the north of Greenland. Last year, at the end of the melt season the mass lurched north and this would now place it directly on the lower limb of the circulation and draw it into the less protected central Arctic sea.

I agree but as the article says, this is a newly discovered current and therefore little will be known about it yet. I think some hard facts are required about this phenomenon before deciding what influence it may have. Interesting read though!

[Gray-Wolf]

I agree but as the article says, this is a newly discovered current and therefore little will be known about it yet. I think some hard facts are required about this phenomenon before deciding what influence it may have. Interesting read though!

Do you feel we have the luxury of time to 'watch' the behaviours of the current or do we look back at what it has facilitated thus far?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

A quote from the article.

But while solar radiation and amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are similar at the poles, to date the regions have responded differently, with little change in the South, explained oceanographer James Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Look at the "very little change in the south". Hmm colder temps and record ice extent...very neatly ignored. An ice free arctic ocean for me is a real problem....but in a negative feedback.

BFTP

[Interitus]

A quote from the article.

But while solar radiation and amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are similar at the poles, to date the regions have responded differently, with little change in the South, explained oceanographer James Overland of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Look at the "very little change in the south". Hmm colder temps and record ice extent...very neatly ignored. An ice free arctic ocean for me is a real problem....but in a negative feedback.

BFTP

It hasn't been neatly ignored, it's accounted for by ozone depletion.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

It hasn't been neatly ignored, it's accounted for by ozone depletion.

Ozone depletion didn't suddenly kick in a year ago, or less than a year ago, after which we have witnessed an almost unprecedented surge in sea ice levels. Current Southern Hemisphere sea ice levels may have another explanation.