Tropical Storm Fay

[Gray-Wolf]

I too have been having a little difficulty discerning current movement and 'track'. The longer she stays slow the more south she will be when she 'rides the ridge' west.

Just a gut feeling but, since a while back, I've had a 'feeling' that Fay would not only hit Gulf waters but that she'll also still have enough internal organisation to 'bomb' once settled. In some ways one of the worst case scenario's with the coast littered with Rigs and oil terminals (along with a still soggy N.O.!! :o )

We will know within the next 24 so let's just wait it out. The NHC are post-scripting discussions with the "not saying not" line.

Edited August 20, 2008 by Gray-Wolf

[Coast]

I too have been having a little difficulty discerning current movement and 'track'.

It will remain interesting none the less and this doppler track doesn't make things any clearer. :o

Edited August 20, 2008 by Coast

[Calrissian]

Well, in the 7pm NHC state Fay has stalled. The NEXRAD is pretty much clearly showing that too.

Melbourne having one hell of a day, with another 12 hours or so of the same, at least I guess.

I believe Fay will hang for another 6 hours or so, and then eventually exit on the west coast of Florida at around the 29.3' lattitude. That is a lot further south than the models have suggested, and indeed, once over the toasty 30c waters, Fay would reasonably be expected to intensify again, and this time to major cat status.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates guys :o

Storm Alert issued at 20 Aug, 2008 15:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FAY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)

probability for TS is 55% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 33 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Calrissian]

NHC stating that some places will have 30 inches of rain.

Looks likely that indeed, places like Melbourne will probably be totalling around 1 metre of rainfall by end of tonight.

Live feed is back up: http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage

The storm team have seen people in Kayaks on what were roadways.

[Mondy]

http://www.flhsmv.gov/fhp/traffic/

"Road closed due to flooding, etc.."

Edited August 20, 2008 by Delta X-Ray

[Calrissian]

I'm really quite enjoying the surfing coverage via the florida feed. A real severe rainstorm in the last 10mins, which has greatly surprised the reporting pair. They seem to think the worse of Fay is over for today :o

Great coverage though.

Fay certainly looks stronger, and I read reports of slightly stronger and more extensive winds as reported in a recent vortex. Overnight strengthening perhaps.

[Cookie]

some interesting images.

still getting updates

Storm Alert issued at 20 Aug, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FAY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 9 hours

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)

probability for TS is 75% in about 21 hours

Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)

probability for TS is 70% in about 21 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 33 hours

Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 21 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[Calrissian]

Such a wondrous storm.

NHC: Wind speeds now back up to 60mph, although they suggest it won't hit cane status, since they believe it'll soon be back over land and then head NW.

--

Looking at the visible sat pic, there are some mighty towers in that storm, I'd bet it hits cane status tonight, if only for one advisory/6 hr period, and then drops back.

Regardless, the rain falls....hard.

[kold weather]

Center tightening up as it takes in some of the warm Atlantic waters, looks like its stalled as the upper trough is now long gone to the NE. System should bend back west within the next 24hrs. The key undertainty is whether the upper high has enough strength to bend this back to near due west and get this into the gulf, or does it stay north enough to never touch the gulf, will have a better look early tomorrow.

As for the strengthening overland, I'm now 100% certain what we saw was interaction with the upper trough, in effect it strengthened in a similar way to what happens with lows this far north though obviously this was tropical.

Note that when the foward speed slowed right down last night it weakened from 65mph down to 50mph, which is the *exact* same time that the system slowed as the upper trough that helped to keep the system strong moved out of the way.

[Coast]

NHC update has Fay stationary......

561

WTNT21 KNHC 210243

TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008

0300 UTC THU AUG 21 2008

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF

ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL

STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM FORT

PIERCE FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER AT THE BORDER

BETWEEN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 80.5W AT 21/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.

50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

34 KT.......130NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.

12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 80.5W AT 21/0300Z

AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 80.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 29.2N 81.2W...INLAND

MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

34 KT...130NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.4N 82.2W...INLAND

MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

34 KT...130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.7N 83.3W...INLAND

MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.1N 84.6W...INLAND

MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 31.0N 87.0W...INLAND

MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 32.0N 89.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND

MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 32.5N 90.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND

MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 80.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

Position is now just offshore of New Smyrna beach, North of Cape Canaveral. It has hardly moved at all in 12 hours.

[Jack Wales]

Fay has definitely tightened up after stalling over the Atlantic, an eye appears to have formed although this has not totally cleared which to me indicates that the storm is very nearly at hurricane strength (probably 65 - 70mph)

[Gray-Wolf]

Well I suppose it all now depends on her 'turn' ,N/W or plain west??

As time goes on all the models have trended towards a more southerly tack then first proposed.

I still feel she'll head West (a slight SW 'wobble' for a couple of hours would make a lot of difference to Fay's final status/track) later today, I also think that the westerly move will take her over less land and maybe put her in the Gulf by local time night-fall. If this happens then tonight may prove interesting (if only for the forecast/model updates .

[Coast]

I still feel she'll head West (a slight SW 'wobble' for a couple of hours would make a lot of difference to Fay's final status/track) later today, I also think that the westerly move will take her over less land and maybe put her in the Gulf by local time night-fall. If this happens then tonight may prove interesting (if only for the forecast/model updates .

I have a good expat friend in Southern Orlando (Clermont) and this could mean it tracks over his location, I'll keep an eye on this one!

Spaghetti models are certainly including the possibility of a more flat, Westerly track:

Edit: Having checked the current location (29.3N 80.8W) thats probably North enough not to worry Orlando, but Daytona Beach might get hit if there isn't a bit more Northerly movement before any Westerly stampede.

Edited August 21, 2008 by Coast

[kold weather]

From its current location due west would indeed put it into the gulf at least a little while, but I'm doubting true due west and instead believe a motion closer to 275-280 is more likely and if that turns out to be the case then whilst it will still make the gulf it'll be in the extreme northern part of the gulf. Still odds are slowly increasing that this at least comes very close to the gulf, its a hard call to make for the forecasters as 50 miles either way makes a big difference.

[tinybill]

its still tiping it down just looked at the cams

http://goflorida.about.com/gi/dynamic/offs...s/beachcam.aspx

[MAF]

Ha, the Southbank Cam is totally blurred with the rain

[MAF]

from firstcoastnews

Fay still has winds of 60 with gusts to 70 and is approximately 80 miles

south-southeast of Jax, and is moving to the west-northwest at about 3 mph.

However the highest winds are located about 60 miles north-northeast of

Fay.The center of circulation is near Matanzas Inlet.

The pressure is now at 993 mb=29.32 inches.

The official track is virtually unchanged from the last update.

Gusty winds over 50 mph has been felt in our area(58 as far inland as Orange

Park).

[MAF]

latest sat image courtesy NOAA

[Calrissian]

Fay is still an impressive Tropical Storm. If this was the UK, it'd be called 'storm force winds', and people would be freaking out, and the Govt' would be holding a COBRA meeting.

Looking at the infra-red, looks like Fay is building up an stronger southern flank. Despite the fact its moving back inland, it would not surprise me if it hit cane' status at some point.

Even the NHC now have their 'best guess' track seeing Fay exit the west coast onto the GOM waters.

Regardless, at the current walking pace, Fay will be over Florida for a long while yet. Rainfall totals will truly be spectacular, 40, 50 inches by the weekend ?

[MAF]

yep, its a very wet storm

NOAA

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING

AREAS...CITRUS...HERNANDO...LEVY AND SUMTER.

* THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING

* TROPICAL STORM FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST

ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN BANDS

ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS

AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE

EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST

RAIN BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

* RESIDENTS...PARTICULARLY THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...AS WELL

AS THOSE LIVING NEAR SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...SHOULD BE

PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

[Calrissian]

FAY IS ALREADY SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS.

THIS HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SLOW WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING

THE NEXT 4 DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE

AGAIN AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FAY SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE. - Avila, NHC

Hmm

...and there we are. So, Fay moves slowly into the GOM, and then by Sunday/Monday, it'll probably stall just a bit south of New Orleans.

I hope they are ready for 2-3 feet of rain!

Fay looks likely to be still be around early next week.

[Cookie]

still getting constant alerts

Storm Alert issued at 21 Aug, 2008 21:00 GMT

Tropical Storm FAY is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)

the United States

probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Jacksonville (30.3 N, 81.7 W)

probability for TS is 100% currently

Orlando (29.0 N, 81.5 W)

probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% currently

probability for TS is 100% currently

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)

Tallahassee (30.4 N, 84.3 W)

probability for TS is 50% in about 33 hours

Tampa (28.0 N, 82.5 W)

probability for TS is 50% within 9 hours

Pensacola (30.7 N, 87.0 W)

probability for TS is 40% in about 69 hours

Savannah (32.0 N, 81.0 W)

probability for TS is 35% currently

Montgomery (32.4 N, 86.3 W)

probability for TS is 35% in about 69 hours

Note that

Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.

Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.

CAT 1 means Hurricane strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.

TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

[MAF]

flash flood warning in Orlando area too

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=jax...111&loop=no

[MAF]

and latest sat image courtesy NOAA

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb-l.jpg