Hurricane Ike weather discussion (thread 2)

[I can't believe it's not better]

someone earlier was saying the differential with the tides is only 1 or two feet. If that's right then it makes not a lot of difference really. May not be right though.

[liquidjp]

someone earlier was saying the differential with the tides is only 1 or two feet. If that's right then it makes not a lot of difference really. May not be right though.

according to the tide forcast the tidal range is really low so the surge is going to do some major damage whenever it hits.

[Roger J Smith]

As I see all interested parties were off-line last night, just a few pieces of information 00-05z ...

The eye began to contract slowly around 03z and is now about 30 miles across. At 0510z I located it 30 miles southeast of downtown Galveston or 25 miles SSE of the entrance to Galveston Bay. Central pressure appears to be 950 mbs. The buoy off the entrance to the Bay has gone adrift, still transmitting valid data, but from exactly where not known, probably it would be drifting towards the opening to Galveston Bay. Last report at 0450z stated pressure 952 mbs.

Intensity is basically cat 2/3 borderline but NHC making the point that cat 4 winds exist at 100-800 feet above the ground so higher rise buildings in Houston can expect that sort of stress later, the storm is not likely to start losing intensity until north of Houston because 50% of the "land" in the region is still water and dead flat.

Midnight local time, CNN reporters riding out the storm at Galveston's sturdiest high-rise hotel can see water over the seawall and also rising from the inland Bay side of town towards their position (which is 30 ft asl because this hotel is on a berm). Other CNN reporters are basically just being lashed by rain blowing sideways in various locations around Galveston Bay and Houston. Reports of rising water everywhere but all quite vague at the moment.

I think the northward jog may now be followed by a westward jog to return the storm to its mean path and so the 0800 GMT position is likely to be right over Galveston Bay with the eyewall wedged between Galveston and Houston.

[Iceberg]

I agree with all that Roger, reports due to darkness are largely all over the place.

The eye has contracted alot and looks very good on radar at last, still not ashore yet but should be so in the next hr. It looks like the eye wall will pass directly over Houston.I agree with all that Roger, reports due to darkness are largely all over the place.

The eye has contracted alot and looks very good on radar at last, still not ashore yet but should be so in the next hr. It looks like the eye wall will pass directly over Houston.

[opplevelse]

Good morning all! Eye has just hit the shore

NOW Ike has a well defined eye on both the sat and radar loops, but it is still a bit ragged

Looks like eye has tightened alot overnight

Here is the radar image at landfall (about 8 minutes ago)

EDIT- wouldnt save ... there you go!

Edited September 13, 2008 by opplevelse

[opplevelse]

Wind field shows a 55knts just at the eyewall

[Roger J Smith]

The convention is to declare landfall when the centre of the eye makes landfall. On the Galveston radar that feature is 10 miles southeast of downtown Galveston and seven miles south of the east end of Galveston, at 0600z. Official landfall will be about 0630z.

[opplevelse]

Roger, yes, you are right.

Technically landfall is when the center of the eye hits the shore ... so perhaps I should have said Ike has made "eyewall-fall"

Although I think it will be more like 1.5-2hrs before the center of the eye makes landfall, judging by the radar.

Edited September 13, 2008 by opplevelse

[Iceberg]

The problem is it's just remained offshore getting smaller and smaller, Unfortunately Recon has been terrible with only 1 message in 6 maybe getting released.

[Roger J Smith]

If you look at the radar loop for Galveston and blow it up, you'll see that the larger eye is developing a 10-mile wide eye just offshore, this is fairly normal for landfalling storms and this feature will soon be across the coastline. The CNN reporter located in Galveston just said the wind has dropped from 100 mph to 20 mph and the wind has picked up to 70-90 mph in the LaPorte and League City areas to the northwest. The growing organization of the storm at this point surely points to the imminent arrival of a very strong surge and battering waves in the onshore flow behind the eye.

[opplevelse]

Not quite sure what you are looking at to see the center of the eye hitting at 6:30UTC? On this radar loop (the official one)

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?r...11&loop=yes

It looks like the center is unlikely to make landfall until at least 7:30UTC

[Roger J Smith]

I'm looking at radar echoes spinning around inside the eye feature, and these are forming a smaller eye in the northwest quadrant of the larger eye. However, the call will be made by the NHC and they may not recognize this structure as valid. Sometimes hurricanes appear to stall at the landfall point then jump forward inland, I think it's some interaction between the eyewall and land redistributing the wind field, then this releases and moves inland quickly.

Radar also looks like meso-scale tornadic winds in the vicinity of the Johnson Space Centre at 0630z.

[opplevelse]

I'm looking at radar echoes spinning around inside the eye feature, and these are forming a smaller eye in the northwest quadrant of the larger eye. However, the call will be made by the NHC and they may not recognize this structure as valid....

Hi Roger, I still do not see what you are looking at. Is there any way you could mock up a graphic or something to explain it? I agree the actual center of circulation in the eye is slightly south of the geometric center, but i cannot see this smaller eye you are talking about?

[Roger J Smith]

As of 0649z the radar was becoming quite chaotic in the formerly clear eye and so I am not sure if I can illustrate now, but here's the link. I can see a lot of SW to NE motion in the southern half of the eye and the actual centre of circulation is probably on the coastline now.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=HGX...11&loop=yes

[opplevelse]

...I can see a lot of SW to NE motion in the southern half of the eye and the actual centre of circulation is probably on the coastline now.

Yep I agree, seems my calculations were not as good as yours! landfall will probably be declared around 07:00UTC

[geoffw]

its not a major disaster or is it?

[Rob]

this storm is HUGE, accuweather.com says due to its size its capable of producing the same damage as a catergory 4 hurricane.

[opplevelse]

its not a major disaster or is it?

This is the wrong thread for that question. Please direct questions like that to this thread ...

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=49499

[geoffw]

sorry but noone answers me

[Typhoon John]

I'd say it is but whether it's a worst case scenario or a near miss I think it's hard to say for certain. My thoughts would be that it's pretty much as predicted so far.

Edited September 13, 2008 by fozi999

[ANYWEATHER]

sorry but noone answers me

Whenever a Hurricane makes landfall it will always be a major disaster, but whether this Hurricane is the worst case scenario or perhaps not as bad as it could have been ....still remains to be seen....still a long way to go yet!

[opplevelse]

... AND BACK TO THE WEATHER ... The eye is almost completely ashore now. Buoy SRST2 registered a wind speed of 72mph (117kmh) a fair way frm the eye and two METARs near th eye have found 50knot winds *92kmh

PLEASE keep this thread for techniocal WEATHER discussion, all other human impact discussion should be here: http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showtopic=49499

This image shows the wind barbs and the two 50knt obs. A little surprising that there are no higher gusts discovered yet (Click for larger)

Edited September 13, 2008 by opplevelse

[hoghedge]

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook....html#8771341wl wave heights - anyone got any more info on wave heights?

Sky reporting 50ft waves out the gulf - has anyone any verification of this?

Hoggy

[opplevelse]

Still max reported speeds (from METARS) is 50knts 92kmh, 60mph

Highest I found

Beaumont/Port Arthur, SE Texas Regional Airport

13 02:53 SE 60 G 87 1.25 Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Windy SCT012 BKN018 OVC030 76 76 29.04 983.2 0.04

Surely there must be higher winds? Anyone

[hoghedge]

Oppl - Here's the obs at Galveston - Currently shows gusts coming up to the 90's....

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu...al+Observations