December CET

[Snowyowl9]

One thing for certain is this month will be another below average month as the CET will keep on falling to the end of the month each day,today is that little bit colder to yesterday, 4.5c to 4.2c on both sites to the 26th.

Edited December 27, 2008 by Snowyowl9

[Optimus Prime]

7/12 months have been below average this year.

Edited December 27, 2008 by Optimus Prime

[The PIT]

GFS tends to overdo the minima at night I find by 1-2C, should be a widespread air frost inland over England tonight given dew points are below freezing - air temp already close to or at freezing point over central England - mins of -3C inland expected by MetO generally a bit lower than GFS progs. Should be colder still Sat and Sun night.

Think 4C or just below is well achievable by end of next Weds.

No air frost here last night. Cloud should keep air temps above freezing while keeping the day time max down as well. Still cold though.

7/12 months have been below average this year.

No they haven't dunno where you got that idea from.

Although this year has been regarded as a cool year only one month has come close to 1c below average three have be significantly above average while seven would be close to average.

Edited December 27, 2008 by The PIT

[Optimus Prime]

The Pit there are 12 months in a year.

March 6.1c 0.2c below average

April 7.9c 0.2c below average

June 13.9c 0.3c below average

July 16.2c 0.3c below average

September 13.5c 0.2c below average

October 9.7c 0.7c below average

December 3.8c 1.3c below average

That's where I got that idea from.

[The PIT]

The Pit there are 12 months in a year.

March 6.1c 0.2c below average

April 7.9c 0.2c below average

June 13.9c 0.3c below average

July 16.2c 0.3c below average

September 13.5c 0.2c below average

October 9.7c 0.7c below average

December 3.8c 1.3c below average

That's where I got that idea from.

I'll think you'll find that official term will be average for those months. I'll let John H correct me on that. Bar October as I think that will count as below average.

[Cymro]

I'll think you'll find that official term will be average for those months. I'll let John H correct me on that. Bar October as I think that will count as below average.

Although i also agree with you they should be deemed average rather than below average but it does seem that when ever we have cold weather or below avearage it is always undermined but if its a slight notch on the mild side you get the global warming ramping etc. which seems a little unfair in my view.

[Snowyowl9]

It`s 7 months below the 71-00 average what OP is referring to as far as I can say, which is good enough for me.

Edited December 27, 2008 by Snowyowl9

[Nick L]

Yup, it's below the average. But both of you are correct. OP is correct in saying it is below the CET average. PIT is right in saying that they aren't in the Met Office category of below average.

[kold weather]

Looks like the max will probably be about 3C looking at the returns across the board being generally between 2-4C, so a pretty cold day when all is done and an average somehwere in the region of 1.5C.

I suspect we will average between 1-2C now till the end of December.

[Timmead]

The Pit there are 12 months in a year.

March 6.1c 0.2c below average

April 7.9c 0.2c below average

June 13.9c 0.3c below average

July 16.2c 0.3c below average

September 13.5c 0.2c below average

October 9.7c 0.7c below average

December 3.8c 1.3c below average

That's where I got that idea from.

Looks like four to me, and the positives far outweigh the negatives.

[Duncan McAlister]

Looks like four to me, and the positives far outweigh the negatives.

That's going by the 1961-90 average which the Met O still use. Most on here use 1971-00, though I must admit a month is never truly 'below average' for me unless it's below 1961-90, I'm just a bit of a traditionalist!

[Timmead]

That's going by the 1961-90 average which the Met O still use. Most on here use 1971-00, though I must admit a month is never truly 'below average' for me unless it's below 1961-90, I'm just a bit of a traditionalist!

I Should also point out that the 61-90 period is the one favoured by the World Meteorological Organisation, so don't really know why NW members use the 71-00 period.

[The PIT]

Looks like the max will probably be about 3C looking at the returns across the board being generally between 2-4C, so a pretty cold day when all is done and an average somehwere in the region of 1.5C.

I suspect we will average between 1-2C now till the end of December.

Cloud holding temps up fairly well so unless there's clear skies elsewhere the average maybe around 2c. Still cool though and for recent years very cold. At the moment it looks like recent years cold spells cloud holding the temps close to day time max.

[Nick F]

Winds will switch to the SE early next week , which should drag drier air further N across central areas and should break up the low cloud which has persisted today and likely to tomorrow - thanks to the current easterly picking moisture up over the N Sea. So we may well see a return overnight sub-zero minimas in the CET zone under clearer skies before the end of the month on Thurs.

[Optimus Prime]

so don't really know why NW members use the 71-00 period.

Probably because we're not part of the MO.

[kold weather]

Yep Nick when the SE winds finally come in the mins should drop away somewhat which will help the CET to drop. Still looks like it could be close as to whether we go below 4C, probably will happen as long as cloud cover doesn't keep mins up too much over the next couple of nights.

[Nick F]

A fall from Manley by 0.1C up to the 27th to 4.1C. As I mentioned in my previous post, as winds turn SE'erly tomorrow, we should see the cloud over central areas break up as drier continental air pushes further north and there is less influence from moisture being dragged off the N Sea as has been the case with the easterly winds over the last day or so. So a return to overnight sub 0C minima in the CET zone.

[West is Best]

A fall from Manley by 0.1C up to the 27th to 4.1C. As I mentioned in my previous post, as winds turn SE'erly tomorrow, we should see the cloud over central areas break up as drier continental air pushes further north and there is less influence from moisture being dragged off the N Sea as has been the case with the easterly winds over the last day or so. So a return to overnight sub 0C minima in the CET zone.

Some very low overnight minima coming up will see it fall well below 4C Nick and KW I think. Somewhere around 3.6C should be the finish from here

[Nick F]

Some very low overnight minima coming up will see it fall well below 4C Nick and KW I think. Somewhere around 3.6C should be the finish from here

I agree that Manley will drop sub 4C, still more to knock off Hadley though (the official figure) - unless there's a revision downwards in their provisional figure, as is sometimes the case.

[reef]

Hadley is 4.4C to the 27th. Yesterday came in at 1.6C.

A mean of 1.4C for the final 4 days is required to reach 4.0C without any adjustments.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Some very low overnight minima coming up will see it fall well below 4C Nick and KW I think. Somewhere around 3.6C should be the finish from here

I expect at least a little below 4 as well Richard. 3.6 may be the lowest of the margin with 3.9 at the highest. The combination of a likely end of month adjustment down towards Manley (which will obviously keep dropping from 4.1) as well as the increasingly further frosty nights with continuing very chilly days should do the trick.

Edited December 28, 2008 by North Sea Snow Convection

[The watcher]

3.9, 3.9c

Edited December 28, 2008 by The watcher

[The PIT]

Winds should swing briefly to the SE which should reduce the cloud cover before swinging back to the NE re-introducing the cloud cover. However over it won't make much difference unless we get some very low mins. Should be a slight downward drift so say 3.8 ish at the end of the month.

[West is Best]

A mean of 1.4C for the final 4 days is required to reach 4.0C without any adjustments.

I think it will be well, well, below that 1.4C for the final 4 days. We'll see some net temps below freezing I think ...

[7andY]

My Weather Station down here in Gloucestershire is currently showing 4.2C. With the frecasted temps to remain below 3-4deg C for the next few days, sub 4.0C might just be possible.

7&Y