December CET

[damianslaw]

Certainly the coldest start to december for many a year (stats say since 1991) however, I thought 1996 would have been nearly as cold, still its great to see something different to the norm. Early December is notoriously a mild wet stormy period, how opposite things have been this year, it is this factor which is making the current weather really interesting and noteworthy, you just don't normally associate early december with what we have had, I'm already classifying December 2008 as a good month for wintry weather regardless that we stil have just less than 3 weeks to go.

[Nick L]

Certainly the coldest start to december for many a year (stats say since 1991) however, I thought 1996 would have been nearly as cold, still its great to see something different to the norm. Early December is notoriously a mild wet stormy period, how opposite things have been this year, it is this factor which is making the current weather really interesting and noteworthy, you just don't normally associate early december with what we have had, I'm already classifying December 2008 as a good month for wintry weather regardless that we stil have just less than 3 weeks to go.

Well I honestly cannot remember the last time we didn't get below freezing overnight, has to be in November. It has probably been more wintry this past 10 days than most of the past 6 months of "winter"!

[noggin]

Yes, same here. I think we've had more frosts in the past fortnight than in the last two Winters put together! Not that I'm complaining......

[stewfox]

The second half would need to come in at 7.6c for December to be average (71-000) quite likely in a warming climate.

Thats as likely as Luton Town getting promoted this year

Where is this warming coming from

[kold weather]

Looks like we are going to get into a more westerly flow which will start to rise temps somewhat but what is starting to become interesting to me is the fact that some models are hinting at high pressure showing its hand again, if that does happen then we are very likely looking at a CET between 2-3C, which would be a heck of a turn-up given recent winters!

[Gavin P]

Any CET under 3.5 would give us the coldest December since 1996 (looks very achievable this morning, IMO) Anything under 2.9 would give us the coldest December since 1995 (achievable) Anything under 2.3 would give us the coldest December since 1981 (unlikely, but can't be written off just yet)

Edited December 12, 2008 by Gavin P

[Kentish Man]

Hadley on 2.6C today (Dec 1 - 11) which is 2.9C below the rolling 71-00 average.

[damianslaw]

Yes, I think we could be on course to record the coldest december since 1996 and quite possibly 1995 all eyes on whether high pressure exerts itself later in the month, after three more days of below average CET recordings we will see quite a jump during the second half of next week, however, if high pressure exerts istelf in the last week daytime maxes will struggle with low minima sending that CET downwards again, one thing I have high confidence in saying is that a belwo average CET is on the cards not often you can say that these days at the half way stage of a month.

[Snowly does it]

Hadley has crept up to 2.7 to the 12th, Manley however has stayed statuc at 1.8 - it seems the higher your current CET reading the more likely you are to rise on a given day despite a very heavy frost.

[weatherwise]

I think the realistic target is coldest since 2001 (i.e somewhere between 3.6C and 4.4C).

Edited December 14, 2008 by weatherwise

[Kentish Man]

Hadley on 2.8C today (up 0.1C) while Climate UK (Manley) lags on 2.2C (Dec 1 -13). True CET probably somewhere in the middle.

[Snowly does it]

Hadley looks likely to sit at around 3 by mid month - so the second half o fthe month needs to average around 7.2 per day to get back to just average - highly unlikely unless the blowtorch sets up - any HP over us will eventually mean overnight frosts scupper any chance.

If the second half is 'average' - which is highly possible if HP acts as suggested, we would end up around 4 and the annual CET at around 10

A sub 4 month is very possible from here, a below average month a strong favourite.

If we get a strong inversion which lasts a week, a sub 3 month is possible, but a long outsider as things stand.

[Gavin P]

Remember there will almost certainly be a fairly substantial downward correction at the end of the month with Haldey.

[Snowly does it]

Remember there will almost certainly be a fairly substantial downward correction at the end of the month with Haldey.

I can't see it being more than 0.2 - Phillip is only 0.6 behind now and closing, the two figures will probably converge later in the month - they have been this far apart before and converged and Hadley corrected by (from memory) 0.2 at month end.

[ukmoose]

The CET is only going to go upwards after Tuesday I think.

My call of milder by mid month when I posted my CET guess will be a couple of days late but it has certainly arrived.

It's a guessing game of course, but I'd say the second half of December, from Wednesday or Thursday onwards, is likely to average anywhere between 6 and 8. Quite a contrast to what has been, if not exciting or dramatic, at least a seasonal first half of the month.

Recent history points very much to another mild January to follow...Would be very happy to be wrong.

Moose

[Nick L]

I think my guess at 4.1c might not be too far off!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

my 6.6oC guess may not be far away, i reckon very mild every remaining day in december from the 18th, i am a even larger teapot hater, but its here for cet zone

[ukmoose]

I think my guess at 4.1c might not be too far off!

Perhaps a little too low?

[Snowly does it]

my 6.6oC guess may not be far away, i reckon very mild every remaining day in december from the 18th, i am a even larger teapot hater, but its here for cet zone

It would require a daily average of something like 11 per day after the 18th, that will not happen.

Above average is much less likely than below average for the final figure given where we are now.

[Stratos Ferric]

I think my guess at 4.1c might not be too far off!

At this stage it certainly looks like being within +/- 0.5C, and very possible closer than that.

[Mondy]

Should really make a CST - Central Scotland Temperature, or CWT (Wales) or CNIT (Norn Ireland)..maybe even a different CET (Eire)

The CET is not a true reflection of the British Isles, but who am I to argue?

[Stratos Ferric]

Should really make a CST - Central Scotland Temperature, or CWT (Wales) or CNIT (Norn Ireland)..maybe even a different CET (Eire)

The CET is not a true reflection of the British Isles, but who am I to argue?

That's like saying there should be a RPI for the price of sweets, or holidays; or that centimetres are a poor measure of weight.

The CET is just that, an indicator of the average temperature in "central" England. There are other less commonly referred to standard measures of temperature for E, S and W; and also for the UK as a whole.

[Mondy]

The CET is just that, an indicator of the average temperature in "central" England.

Which, in the grand scale of things (that would be the Uk as a whole going by the readers/replies on here) is the crux of my above point. Is it a case the CET is inwardly bias considering -8c north of "it" or +4c south of "it" rules out actual proper data?

It may be that the CET has registered a point or two below/above average, but you try telling that to someone who has experienced a cold winter (so far) in these neck of the woods.

[Stratos Ferric]

Which, in the grand scale of things (that would be the Uk as a whole going by the readers/replies on here) is the crux of my above point. Is it a case the CET is inwardly bias considering -8c north of "it" or +4c south of "it" rules out actual proper data?

It may be that the CET has registered a point or two below/above average, but you try telling that to someone who has experienced a cold winter (so far) in these neck of the woods.

Not sure what point you're trying to make. This point comes up most years and the answer is always the same, the CET does what it always has done; it takes the data from three stations, checks them against other local reference sites, and produces an overall index by averaging the prime sites' data. If it isn't representative of Scotland then that's because it isn't meant to be. Scotland will always be cooler over the longer term, just as the SW will be warmer and wetter, just as central N US will be hotter in summer and colder in winter.

[johnholmes]

well explained as always SF