December CET

[osmposm]

Seems to be a pattern going on here with the last 3 months with a cold first week.

...though of course the calendar month is a human invention, so the timing must be just chance. But beyond question a cooling trend, in at least the short term....and I'm beginning to wish I'd plumped for something half a degree lower than my 4.7 punt for the month.

By the way, I shall be in France from 21st-30th Dec, and perhaps in Argentina later in January: previous experience in Feb '85, Feb '86, Jan '87 and Feb '05 suggests that the southern UK will reserve its snowfall for then!

Ossie

[eddie]

The Hadley CET is now 1.1C to the 2nd.

The coldest first 2 days of December since 1978 and the 20th coldest start to December since 1772.

[J10]

I'm not sure how to interpret that response but I'm guessing that it's based on a misinterpretation of my previous post.

I was referring specifically to the Osmposm/Diane case, where she made a compelling effort to avoid breaking the rules but was unable to get the required help, and far from suggesting that illness or confusion over last date of entry are valid excuses, I was quoting them as possible examples of bad excuses people could use in JACKONE's slippery slope scenario, where the correct approach would be to turn around and say tough.

And I certainly wasn't complaining about being docked 10 points myself- I knew fine well that by revising my 5.5 to 4.6 on 1st December I would pay a 10-point penalty, but I thought it was worth taking the penalty rather than being much further out with my prediction. As it stands I actually had no excuse at all!

If a majority of people were willing to make a one off exception, I'd go along with that.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

If a majority of people were willing to make a one off exception, I'd go along with that.

There is in my view absolutely no problem or issue with giving her a break. Its her first one and how can it affect anyone really...after all its only a game where rules can be bent slightly on the odd occasion.

BFTP

[cheeky_monkey]

not that i really care..but what makes me laugh looking back at the the thread cus im bored..is that she didnt ask for an exception to be made..others did it for her..the real question is why????..anyway im still miffed i was cheated out of the first ever competition and i refuse to play anymore :lol:

[Nick L]

I'm not fussed at all. It's not her fault she couldn't have a stab at it in the required time. I don't see what is wrong with making this one exception. After all, it's only a bit of fun and if anyone gets very upset by it then it's just sad.

[summer blizzard]

If a majority of people were willing to make a one off exception, I'd go along with that.

I disagree with letting her off, she could easily of picked out a number before hand, the fact is that rules are rules and she should not be exempt.

I bid you farewell, better off next month.

[osmposm]

SB: I think you're slightly missing the point. Diane asked for our help in understanding what the competition was about**, and nobody could be bothered to give it - at least not until so late that she didn't see it in time. As soon as she saw it she posted her entry. So it's we who are to blame, not her, I'd have thought.

Cheeky M: the reason I (at any rate) asked - light-heartedly, it has to be said - is that as the person who finally posted the help she wanted (and eventually PM'd her to tell her it was there), I was particularly aware of what had happened. And also because I hope - and some people here may perhaps sneer at even the concept - that I am a gentleman.

The irony is that not only did she not ask to be let off, I'm not sure she even knows this rather splendid discussion about her is going on! I think I need to PM her again!

Ossie

**Could we perhaps think of posting an explanation of CET and the competition at the beginning of every month's thread, where it's nice and easy to find? Or a pinned thread?

Edited December 3, 2008 by osmposm

[Snowyowl9]

...though of course the calendar month is a human invention, so the timing must be just chance. But beyond question a cooling trend, in at least the short term....and I'm beginning to wish I'd plumped for something half a degree lower than my 4.7 punt for the month.

By the way, I shall be in France from 21st-30th Dec, and perhaps in Argentina later in January: previous experience in Feb '85, Feb '86, Jan '87 and Feb '05 suggests that the southern UK will reserve its snowfall for then!

Ossie

Feb 06 wasn`t bad either I`ll definately take that again.

The Hadley CET is now 1.1C to the 2nd.

The coldest first 2 days of December since 1978 and the 20th coldest start to December since 1772.

Impressive first 3 days mean here is just -1.3c

[summer blizzard]

SB: I think you're slightly missing the point. Diane asked for our help in understanding what the competition was about**, and nobody could be bothered to give it - at least not until so late that she didn't see it in time. As soon as she saw it she posted her entry. So it's we who are to blame, not her, I'd have thought.

Cheeky M: the reason I (at any rate) asked - light-heartedly, it has to be said - is that as the person who finally posted the help she wanted (and eventually PM'd her to tell her it was there), I was particularly aware of what had happened. And also because I hope - and some people here may perhaps sneer at even the concept - that I am a gentleman.

The irony is that not only did she not ask to be let off, I'm not sure she even knows this rather splendid discussion about her is going on! I think I need to PM her again!

Ossie

**Could we perhaps think of posting an explanation of CET and the competition at the beginning of every month's thread, where it's nice and easy to find? Or a pinned thread?

I still maintain that she should continue to be penalised, however i would support the pinned thread idea.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Dec Mean to the 3rd, 1.5 (-3.7)

Min -1.4 (-4.1)

Max 4.7 (-3.2)

[kold weather]

Will see increases from now on in the CET but there is looking like any milder shots will also be balanced by colder interludes I'd suspect.

Something between 3.5-4.5C right now would be my best bet but who knows!

[Duncan McAlister]

Updated list with casparjack and Bobd27's guesses

Craig Evans 8.5

Mike W 8

snowingman 7.4

Diane W 7.2 One day late

grab my graupel 6.7

mark forster 630 6.6

WhiteXmas 5.9

Orange Sky 5.7

snowsure 5.7

reef 5.6

DAVID SNOW 5.6

daveshug 5.6

acbrixton 5.5

swfc 5.4

Jack Wales 5.4

chionomaniac 5.3

ukmoose 5.3

Mark H 5.3

IRON-BRU 5.3

WS Evolution 5.2

DR Hosking 5.2

Stargazer 5.2

Timmy H 5.2

Timmead 5.2

1971-00 average 5.1

The PIT 5.1

shuggee 5.1

TomSE20 5.1

tcc 5

mulzy 5

Megamoonflake 5

JACKONE 5

Andy_Calafell_Sheffield 4.9

SteveB 4.9

derby4life 4.9

Mr Maunder 4.9

Norrance 4.8

Mr_Data 4.8

NorthantsSnow 4.8

Cold in Cromarty 4.8

RAIN RAIN RAIN 4.7

SNOW-MAN2006 4.7

osmposm 4.7

ned 4.7

1961-90 average 4.6

TOMB RAIDER LEGEND 4.6

Anti-Mild 4.6

Potent Gust 4.6

Stu_London 4.6

Acupuncturist 4.6

The Calm before the Storm 4.6

Thundery wintry showers 4.6 10 points for one day late

Polar Gael 4.5

jimben 4.5

Roger J Smith 4.5

Don 4.5

phil n.warks. 4.5

beng 4.5

mark bayley 4.5

LadyPakal 4.5

bluearmy 4.5

Glacier Point 4.5

Snowstorm1 4.4

Great Plum 4.4

themusicland 4.4

casparjack 4.3 10 points for one day late

RUSS L.F.C. 4.3

damianslaw 4.3

pjb120 4.3

Kentish Man 4.3

Rollo 4.2

BLAST FROM THE PAST 4.2

AtlanticFlamethrower 4.2

kold weather 4.2

Terminal Moraine 4.1

suffolkboy_ 4.1

nick2702 4.1

Snow-Storm 4.1

summer blizzard 4.1

memories of 63 4

dice45 4

mk13 4

sundog 4

Snowyowl9 4

Bobd29 3.9 20 points for two days late

James M 3.9

The watcher 3.9

Steve Murr 3.9

fozi999 3.9

SNOWPLOUGH 3.8

Devon-Nelly 3.8

Polar Side 3.8

adamjones416 3.7

BARRY 3.7

Optimus Prime 3.6

stormforce 10 3.5

mountain shadow 3.5

kippure 3.4

NaDamantaSam 3.3

Duncan McAlister 3.1

stewfox 3.1

Timbo 3.1

Polar Continental 3.1

snowmaiden 3

West is Best 2.2

eddie 1.9

tundra 1.8

paul tall 1.7

trickydicky -0.4

MetmanFlash -1

Tornado Alley -2.3

Diane W's status still in limbo but FWIW I would be happy to grant her an exemption on this one occasion.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley on 2.0C (Dec 1 - 4)

[Nick L]

To beat the 2001 year in terms of cold, we need December to finish at 3.1c. To get a sub-10 year, we need a December CET of 4c or below, if my calculations are correct. So far so good if that is the case

[Optimus Prime]

Manley upto 4th is 1.1c (figures against the 71-2000 average)

Mean Max 4.4c (-3.8c)

Mean Min -2.3c (-5.5c)

[Diane_W]

Guys, please don't waste anymore typing on little old me.

Rules are rules, as the traffic warden said to me today, so I'll be quite happy for the moderators of this wonderful site to be able to get on with their important work without any more fuss.

Thanks again

Di

[Eugene]

Running -4.0C below currently , what a fantastic start to the winter and still some aren't happy and it's going to drop in the week ahead too, we could be looking at a very cold first half to December miles better than last year.

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Edited December 6, 2008 by Eugene

[Gavin P]

Quite a big deviation between Manley and Hadley again. Expect a fairly big downward correction to Hadley at the end of the month.

BTW, my computer was down at the end of November, so I didn't manage to enter the Netweather CET competition, but if I had my entry would have been 3.5.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Hadley on 2.4 (-2.

Min: -0.4 (-2.9)

Max: 5.7 (-2.1)

Edited December 6, 2008 by RAIN RAIN RAIN

[dice45]

id say about 3c for here !

[Snowyowl9]

If the CET is 2.8c by the 7th it'll be the coldest first week of December since 1998 when 2.4c was recorded.

Cold winters with average first week of December temperatures (1961-90 average);

Dec

1996 1-7th 4.4c (-0.7c) Ending at 2.9c

1995 1-7th 5.0c (-0.1c) 2.3c

1990 1-7th 4.6c (-0.5c) 4.3c

1986 1-7th 8.7c (+3.6c) 6.2c

1985 1-7th 9.7c (+4.6c) 6.3c

1981 1-7th 5.2c (+0.1c) 0.3c

1978 1-7th 2.5c (-2.6c) 3.9c

1968 1-7th 5.2c (+0.1c) 3.0c

1962 1-7th 0.1c (-5.0c) 1.8c

1955 1-7th 6.8c (+1.7c) 5.4c

1946 1-7th 4.4c (-0.7c) 3.1c

You would fancy our chances at something colder this winter.

It could well be the coldest first week of december since 1962 going by those years.

Certainly the coldest first week I`m going to record by quite a way 11c lower than 1998 and also lower the 1995.

2.5c on hadley to the fifth and 2 cold days/nights since.

Only 2c here upto the 6th.

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

And another cold week to come.

Edited December 7, 2008 by Snowyowl9

[Nick L]

Today will see a big, big hit to the CET I think. I am in the middle of the CET region and my temperature is still a good way below freezing and I reached -4c last night. What a fantastic start to winter this is. My 4.1c prediction seems tropical at the moment!

Edited December 7, 2008 by nick2702

[Nick L]

Hadley up to 2.7c up to the 6th. By my calculations, this is still enough to keep us below 2001.

[kold weather]

Looks like the Atlantic is going to finally shunt away the real cold stuff that has managed to linger around our region for the last week around the 15th does seem to have a fair chance of being blown away and that means that the CET will rise probably a lot back towards average if that pattern holds for any length of time.