December CET

[Stratos Ferric]

There were of course 4 exceptionally mild days this December with a couple of mildish days either side of them - the 4 very mild days probably added 1 degree to the final total between them - thats what happens when you hget exceptionally mild periods.

Sub 3 in December has happened only 13 times in the last 108 years, it really isn't something to be expected when you have 4 days contributing a degree and 8 contributing probably 1.5 degrees of that total on their own

By my reckoning on the 20th-22nd were "exceptional", all exceeding 9C. 1995 started with three mild days, accumulating 26 cumulative degrees, and yet the month still landed at just 2.3C, almost fifty cumulative degrees colder than this year. Mild days don't help if you're after a sub 3.0C, and an absence of mild is certainly necessary (a problem in the even larger teapot), but is not of itself sufficient. If you look at the recent cold Decembers then 1996 had three net sub zero days, 1995 had seven, 1981 sixteen (including five where the net mean was below -3C, and the famous day when the mean was -8.5C!), and 1976 had three (but no day's mean exceeded 6.0C). This rather supports Shuggee's point, and another assertion of mine: we no longer get sufficient intense cold to drag means down. The current spell is cold, for sure, but here we are on the 30th and to yesterday we still hadn't had a single day this month with an average below 0C. Cold isn't what is used to be!

[Snowly does it]

Cold isn't what is used to be!

or, perhaps, this isn't cold

still, comparitively to any period pretty much, below average

[Stratos Ferric]

or, perhaps, this isn't cold

still, comparitively to any period pretty much, below average

It's not as cold as a casual reader of some of the threads on here might take it to be. As ever, those of us with longer frames of reference necessarily have more experience of genuine intense cold. I think the recent spell has been cold, but not "very cold".

[Snowyowl9]

The current spell is cold, for sure, but here we are on the 30th and to yesterday we still hadn't had a single day this month with an average below 0C. Cold isn't what is used to be!

Could do with the much colder upper air,as these last couple of winters 3 counting this one yet havn`t given -10 upper air.

Today is certainly cold though with quite mild uppers,surface east cold is the best to cure that.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn062.png

The last really cold easterly,but temps were only 2.3c lower to today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119970101.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00219970101.gif

Edited December 29, 2008 by Snowyowl9

[Optimus Prime]

It's not as cold as a casual reader of some of the threads on here might take it to be. As ever, those of us with longer frames of reference necessarily have more experience of genuine intense cold. I think the recent spell has been cold, but not "very cold".

You're comparing surface cold South Eastertly, to something likethe incredible 1981, 1995 with a severe arctic outbreak in the last week and 1996, which once again has winds straight from off the continent in a strong Eastertly. Ermm, seems a little unfair to me Strattos. What about December 1978, which had a very cold start and very cold end yet still managed only 3.9c? (which incidently will be higher then this month!)

I entirely agree, things have changed and will continue to change towards the warmer side of present. But comparing a South easterly, from no genuine cold source is unfair. 

[Nick H]

I don't know the CET figures, but in the Chilterns the claim that this was the coldest start to winter in 30 years would not stand. These are the monthly averages up to the 10th of each December (and if the start of winter is the 1st 15 days of December, the claim looks even more dubious).

1980 2.4

1981 1.9

1987 2.6

1989 2.8

1990 2.5

2008 2.9

Does anyone have the CET figures apart from 1987?

Of course, the coldest start is completely irrelevant....the starts to summers 1982, 1993, 1996, 2004 were the warmest I can find in my records and all those summers flattered to deceive somewhat.

Edited December 29, 2008 by Nick H

[Nick H]

or, perhaps, this isn't cold

Which really goes back to the point that we don't get cold winters anymore.

[damianslaw]

Well definately a below average CET for december will be returned - possible finishing mark 3.7-3.8 degrees factoring in downward adjustment, that mild spell between the 18th-24th really has made its mark, had we just had an average spell of weather during said period we probably would have recorded a cet nearer the 3 degree mark beating dec 2001.

[Iceberg]

The CET on the Hadley site is currently 4.3 -0.4 provisional, to the 28th so really slightly below average at present.

Can't see it falling massively from here in the last 3 days......

[Kentish Man]

Here are this morning's stats from Climate UK (Manley)

CET: (Dec 1-29): 4.0°C (-1.1 degC)

E&W Rain: (Dec 1-29): 63.4mm ( 67 per cent)

E&W Sun: (Dec 1-29): 70.0hr (157 per cent)

© Philip Eden

The CET fell by 0.1C from the day before and I guess Hadley will follow suit when their figures are released.

There was a widespread moderate air frost overnight (-3 or -4C) although ironically parts of the CET zone (eg around Pershore) were notably less cold than elsewhere.

[Nick L]

Hadley CET 4.2c to the 29th, so it has gone down another 0.1.

[Mr Maunder]

It will be close, but I expect the unadjusted Hadley to end up at 4.0c.

We just need two days with a CET of about 1.0c.

MM

[Nick L]

It will be close, but I expect the unadjusted Hadley to end up at 4.0c.

We just need two days with a CET of about 1.0c.

MM

Very achievable IMO. I am in the CET zone and my temperature is currently 0.1c, my CET for the day will be below freezing.

[Stratos Ferric]

It will be close, but I expect the unadjusted Hadley to end up at 4.0c.

We just need two days with a CET of about 1.0c.

MM

3.8 looks likely for Hadley, before any adjustment, 3.9 if it stays cloudy over an extensive area. Today will almost certainly be a net freezing day, as should be tomorrow; that will make a dramatic difference.

[Optimus Prime]

Gfs has the period 30th-31st at -0.5c. Will be at 3.9c by the 31st. Adjusted down to 3.7c.

0.2c colder than December 1978. Manley should also finish on 3.7c. Anual CET finishing on 9.96c, coldest since 2001.

[Stu_London]

Very achievable IMO. I am in the CET zone and my temperature is currently 0.1c, my CET for the day will be below freezing.

Yesterday came in at 0.8C - today and tomorrow look a bit colder

[The PIT]

For us at the moment coldest since Dec 2001 which came in at 3.7C.

Can't we get that annual CET down to 9.94 which would round it down to 9.9C.

[Optimus Prime]

Climate-uk is on 3.8c upto the 30th.

Mean max 6.3c (-1.3c)

Mean min 1.4c (-1.2c)

[Kentish Man]

Climate-uk is on 3.8c upto the 30th.

Mean max 6.3c (-1.3c)

Mean min 1.4c (-1.2c)

Yes I think Hadley should also register a 0.1C fall today. As for tomorrow Pershore in the CET zone fell to -6.5C last night so the final day of the month should see a further 0.2C fall, taking it to 3.9C before any final adjustment. After adjustment maybe we'll see 3.7C.

[West is Best]

Yes I think Hadley should also register a 0.1C fall today. As for tomorrow Pershore in the CET zone fell to -6.5C last night so the final day of the month should see a further 0.2C fall, taking it to 3.9C before any final adjustment. After adjustment maybe we'll see 3.7C.

I'm keeping the faith: 3.6C will be the final. Manley certainly so, and I think Hadley will go sharply lower on correction. May even be 3.5C.

It's not as cold as a casual reader of some of the threads on here might take it to be. As ever, those of us with longer frames of reference necessarily have more experience of genuine intense cold. I think the recent spell has been cold, but not "very cold".

I'm 44 and this has been a properly cold month, not merely based on memory or revisionism but empirically so with a final figure coming in 1C or more below average. Cold, no matter how even the most unscientific mild ramper attempts to deny facts.

Edited December 31, 2008 by West is Best

[ukmoose]

I think it has been a cold month generally without anything particularly exciting at any stage (other than in the FI models).

To get a below average winter month is, in itself, quite unusual these days though and if we do end up a full degree or more below the 71-2000 mean then I think that must count as a real result and is probably about as low as we can get and the best we can expect.

Would much rather have this dry, frosty weather than the usual warm so'westers.

[D KARLSON]

I think it has been a cold month generally without anything particularly exciting at any stage (other than in the FI models).

To get a below average winter month is, in itself, quite unusual these days though and if we do end up a full degree or more below the 71-2000 mean then I think that must count as a real result and is probably about as low as we can get and the best we can expect.

Would much rather have this dry, frosty weather than the usual warm so'westers.

Yes a result for a change , certainly progress in the right direction !!!!

[Kentish Man]

A bigger fall on Hadley than expected- it is down 0.2C to 4.0C (Dec 1 -30). With a sharp fall tomorrow and month end adjustment to come WIB's 3.6C is now looking plausible.

[Roger J Smith]

Looking very much like an ice day to end the month, should drop the average a further 0.2 and then it's on to the mandatory revisions, could end up mid 3s at that rate. Seems like a very dry month, was it?

[Kentish Man]

Looking very much like an ice day to end the month, should drop the average a further 0.2 and then it's on to the mandatory revisions, could end up mid 3s at that rate. Seems like a very dry month, was it?

Up to 25th December Philip Eden's site has rainfall varying from 122% of average in parts of Scotland to just 39% in East Anglia. SE England is 61% but even that conceals local variations as we in Kent seemed to have had a quite a wet early month while slightly west and north of us it was much drier.

I think I am right in saying there has been very little rainfall nationwide in the last six days of the month.