The Curse Of The Modern Winter

[MR EXTREMES]

Amazingly negative. The fact that we've had sooo much snow is testament to the fact that the UK can do sooooo well under not such ideal conditions. Imagine if we did have the northern blocking then look how things would have turned up.

I think this Winter has dented the even larger teapot theory. Most of the winter, the jet has been virtually non existent for the UK and has tracked further south giving storms to Southern France. The cold zonality spell of Jan is testimony to this. With the jet behaving how it has been, I don't understand all the negativity.

Very few times this Winter have I had daytime temps of double digits- a few days in Dec, very few in Jan and none in Feb thus far. It is certainly notable. This has also been an extremely frosty winter.

You tell me how often in the past have we had....

2ft of snowfall in the SW?

8 inches of snow in C.London?

Sea freezing at Padstow?

-19C in parts of Scotland??

Snow at St Marys?

Snow in October?

ALL IN ONE SEASON!!

Regards, hgb

still a cursed winter and by far not a 80s style infact im now wondering wether the 80s winters can ever come back colder yes.

but old skool by far no.

although i do have to say it has been a colder year.

but if you take into a regional winter then it was very much on a knife edge,

but one thing i have noticed more snowfall was about and even in april2008 we had a snowfall event here on the southcoast which in itself is different.

i dont know about you guys but im waiting for next winter already lol.

and as solar minima carries on who knows whats going to happen in future winters.

i was though dissapointed with our 2day snowfall event here but again that boils down to regional setups if it had been 80s 70s or 60s winter then there would be no marginal as winters where just so much colder.

Edited February 16, 2009 by badboy657

[johnholmes]

The ideal cold spell for me consists of 7-10 days with temps remaining below 0C and at least 1 decent snowfall. This will only occur if the synoptics I describe occur.

come on mate get real, what are the chances of that?

How many times, other than 1946-7, 1962-63 has anywhere in the UK had a week of sub zero C and snow!

Having experienced a week of sub zero C and snow, in 1963, I can tell you its not a lot of fun. Think of your heating bills, think how difficult it is to move about outside.

Go and live in the Alps if you really want that would be the only sensible suggestion to that kind of hope.

Edited February 16, 2009 by johnholmes

[karyo]

As has been said already, you can have perfect synoptics with limited snow. So why worry/moan/whatever about the synoptics when many areas of the country have seen plenty of snow, lasting for many days! Also, this winter is running below average temperature wise and came as a surprise to many, including the Met Office!

Karyo

[Weather-history]

What is a "even larger teapot"?

I mean by definition, not a detail analysis.

Severe cold snowy winters in days of old were called "old fashioned winters" as though they happened years ago but not recently. Even way back into the 1850s, a severe cold spell was called old fashioned.

So we know what the definition of "an old fashioned winter" is. However what is the definition of the "even larger teapot"?

Can winter 2008-9 be called a even larger teapot?

Not according to the Manchester Winter Index, it is higher in value than some winters of the early 1980s who are never referred to as modern winters.

To me the term, "even larger teapot" is very vague, fudged etc. There is no clear edge to this term.

Here is an editorial from the Times of 30th January 1937 and it talks about how southern parts are not the greatest place to appreciate snow.

Edited February 16, 2009 by Mr_Data

[phil nw.]

Quite simply--Low Heights over Greenland/Iceland area.

In spite of this because we have had periods of a deep NW-SE aligned trough into C.Europe and High pressure further West it`s enabled us to receive some Polar air in the mix and with instability given us some Snow,albeit in marginal setups.

The Southerly tracking jet has been our friend for cold this year and even in periods of High pressure we have retained long spells of surface cold with some sharp frosts.

However if we had have got those heights up North then think how much more severe the cold would have been.

[Yeti]

Just posted this in the climate thread but I think it's relevant here.

We often complain about our winters warming (indeed, the whole climate) in the UK, and perhaps even more often about the "cold going south".

Well look at this data for Spain compared to other countries, and how much of an increase there has/hasn't been across the two data sets (61-90 and 71-00).

Brussels 2.5, 3,1 (January); 9.7, 10.2 (annual)

Burgos 2.6, 2.7 (January); 9.9, 10.1 (annual)

Ávila 3.2, 2.8 (January); 10.4, 10.4 (annual)

León 3.1, 3.1 (January); 10.8, 10.9 (annual)

Aachen 2.4, 3.0 (January); 9.7, 10.1 (annual)

Freiburg 1.8, 2.4 (January); 10.8, 11.1 (annual)

Karlsruhe 1.2, 1.9 (January); 10.3, 10.7 (annual)

Notice Ávila (1130m) has actually fallen in January! Burgos (856m) has increased by 0.1-0.2, and León barely noticeably.

Here is some other data, to compare with our cities:

(January 61-90, 71-00, Annual 61-90, 71-00)

London 4.6, 5.2, 10.7, 11.0

Oxford 4.1, 4.6, 10.1, 10.4

Manchester 3.8, 4.2, 9.5, 9.8

Washington 0.9, 1.7, 13.7, 14.2

Vienna-Hohe Warte (T January)

- 1931-1960: -1,4 ºC

- 1961-1990: -0,6 ºC

- 1971-2000: 0,1 ºC

Madrid- Navacerrada (T January y t annual) (NOT Madrid itself, at 1800m!)

-1931-1960: -1,1 6,7

-1961-1990: -0,6 6,1

-1971-2000: -0,6 6,4

Madrid-Barajas (t January y t annual) (Airport)

-1961-1990: 5,5 13,9

-1971-2000: 5,4 14,1

Salamanca-Matacán (t enero y t anual) (800m)

-1961-1990: 3,7 11,6

-1971-2000: 3,6 11,7

Albacete- Los Llanos (t enero y t anual)

-1961-1990: 5,0 13,5

-1971-2000: 4,8 13,6

Vigo-Peinador (t enero y t anual)

-1961-1990: 8,2 13,4

-1971-2000: 8,3 13,6

Prague:

T enero 61-90: -0,2 ºC

T enero 71-00: 0,7 ºC

T anual 61-90: 9,9 ºC

T anual 71-00: 10,4 ºC

A brutal increase there.

You might also notice that the UK is perhaps NOT the greatest affected by the warming.

Of course, some areas warm and others cool, and you still have an overall warming, but I just thought it was very interesting to see that whilst the whole of Europe seems to be getting warmer, much of Spain (at least the interior) seems to be holding around the same values. Is this indeed concrete evidence of the cold diving into Iberia like we often see?

Edited February 16, 2009 by Yeti

[Nick H]

The ideal cold spell for me consists of 7-10 days with temps remaining below 0C and at least 1 decent snowfall. This will only occur if the synoptics I describe occur.

In the 30 years I've been recording the weather in the Chilterns, we've never had 7 days below 0C, let alone 10. 5 days in Dec 1981, 4 days in Jan 1982, 6 days in Jan 1987 (admittedly followed by a 0.5 max followed by a further 3 sub 0C days), 4 days in Feb 1991. It is totally unrealistic to expect such sustained freezing conditions in this country. If you want 7 days below 0C in this country I suggest you emigrate.

Philip Eden suggested yesterday that, taking into account the mild second half of February that is forecast, this winter will rank 22nd in the last 100 years in terms of cold. In a warming phase, that is quite notable.

Edited February 16, 2009 by Nick H

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I think there have been some totally ridiculous assessments on here and elsewhere today.

You know, I am reading this thread, and other threads, and it may as well have been a flat pattern mild zonal winter and the mood would be exactly the same. What on earth is the matter with people?

I'm not even going to bother trying to point out many realities. Other than if you want the sort of winters that give day after day, week after week of sub zero temps and ice fairs on the Thames and in the straits of Dover then it might not happen in a lifetime, and historically that has always been the case. Winters like 1947 and 1963 have always been the exception to the rule.

Yes, winters have been lean and disappointing for a number of years, but colder winters have to start somewhere and we don't necessarily get plunged straight back into an ice box. I too would have 'liked' to have seen the cold easterly last longer than a day or so at the start of the month but if I can 'get over it' I'm sure others can. Or can't they

For me the even larger teapot was/is just a nauseous self imposed catch phrase about winter to 'mourn' a cyclical period whereby cold winters have been seen less frequently. I don't care a jot what anyone else's humanly constructed benchmark is. As far as I am concerned it is all in the head, and there to provide uneccessary self torture.

I could have put this post on any number of threads this morning with some of the nonsense being spouted, but this one will do.

There seem to be a lot of little boys who are behaving like their favourite football team finished second or third in the first division (or whatever it is called these days ) despite the fact that they have been next to bottom for a many number of years. And I know nothing about football but that analogy will do.

Life is too short - be grateful for what we have had, and keep looking forward to even better things.

Edited February 16, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[ANYWEATHER]

What about the curse of the modern summer, spring or autumn??

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

What about the curse of the modern summer, spring or autumn??

Indeed

It is very 'British' for us to want to fall on our own sword and develop a 'curse' mentality complex. It doesn't just apply to our attitude about the weather (the nations favourite subject)

[D KARLSON]

come on mate get real, what are the chances of that?

How many times, other than 1946-7, 1962-63 has anywhere in the UK had a week of sub zero C and snow!

Having experienced a week of sub zero C and snow, in 1963, I can tell you its not a lot of fun. Think of your heating bills, think how difficult it is to move about outside.

Go and live in the Alps if you really want that would be the only sensible suggestion to that kind of hope.

It does all seem a bit silly this thread ,dream synoptics which probably average out once a decade or less for that matter and this winter being a dissapointment , we dont live in Canada ours is a maritime climate.

This winter has been fascinating and would be described as snowy by any meteorologist and its not all about low cet s, its about it being cold enough for snow ,weve been very fortunate to witness such a winter as this much snow in Britain is rare , when next year produces 95 /96 synoptics ,will people in the south east complain about the constant bitter south easterly wind and complete lack of snow !!!!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

The talk of 7-10 days of sub-zero temperatures is ridiculous- even in the winters of 1978/79, 1981/82 and 1984/85 few places managed a single sub-zero spell of that length, and the same goes for the phenomenal easterly spells of January 1987 and February 1991.

This winter (including early December as well as early February) has left me feeling quite encouraged about the near future of UK winters, because the synoptics weren't outstanding, yet snow events were widespread.

[SMU]

I think some people are suffering from a bit of Snow blindness here-

I guess peoples veiws are being skewwed by

a) the snowfall that fell in Febuary- which is also skewwing the Winter Index ( Although I do like OON's post)-

However The snowfall I would class as a One off event & would not be something that was sustainable going forward- ( like say frequent Northerly blocking in a Winter)

B ) the fact that we have had some mildly better synoptics than recent years doesnt mean that something has suddenly changed in our patterns-

Yes we have had below average conditions, however find me a CET below 3C, - How many ice days have we had under non inversion conditions- ( I dont want to get into the inversion arguement)

My summary of this Winter would be this- ( without including that even larger teapot phrase)

2008 /09 Has shown differences in the height anomaly patterns V more recent hemispheric Patterns, The storm tracks have been further South & or amplified further NW away from the UK, transient spells of weak blocking to the NE have allowed Cold surface air to filter over the UK from time to time from the east or South East & one intense cold pool to hit the UK on the opening of Feb, sadly whilst we have seen colder stagnent air at the surface the prevailing upper air conditions havent maintained anything like what we have seen in decent Winters-

The jet being further South Also allowed a period of Cold zonality to prevail-

Scoring this out of 10, I guess avergae weather & average conditions & Average snow would generate a 5- So I go with 7/10 for snow & 6.5/10 for cold-

Close but no Cigar-

finally, I dont quite know how we got onto statements about dreaming this & 7-10 days of Sub zero temps etc etc-

This thread was a basic comparison on how our weather has changed-

here is the simple facts, all those people proclaiming that the CET started off the coldest for however long- here are the simple statistics to prove that things may have changed a little this winter but are WAY out of kilter with what the uk winter does & CAN produce-

CET recorded below 3c -

1968- 1977 5

1978-1987 10

1988-1997 5

1998- 2007 0 ( & now almost certainly including this winter)

Philip Eden suggested yesterday that, taking into account the mild second half of February that is forecast, this winter will rank 22nd in the last 100 years in terms of cold. In a warming phase, that is quite notable.

It will be interesting when we are all said & done to put that statement to the test-

S

Edited February 16, 2009 by Steve Murr

[Nick L]

To be honest I couldn't give a damn about synoptics if we got the snow - which we did! A good winter in my opinion.

[Weather-history]

a) the snowfall that fell in Febuary- which is also skewwing the Winter Index

-

Yes we have had below average conditions, however find me a CET below 3C, - How many ice days have we had under non inversion conditions- ( I dont want to get into the inversion arguement)

The Winter Index is not being skewed by the snowfall, it is part of the equation. Actually snowfall amounts here have not been that spectacular.

As for the CET that is below 3C

Well

29th November-12th February CET: 2.95,

Assuming January is 3.3

However, there is a greater degree of certainty with this

29th November-10th January CET: 2.5

Edited February 16, 2009 by Mr_Data

[kold weather]

We have really missed getting any decent heights over Greenland, the jet has constantly arched up towards Greenland and this is what the problem has been this winter, its the final piece that has been lacking, the southerly jet has been a nice change though nad has led to a very snowy Feb.

[johnholmes]

I think some people are suffering from a bit of Snow blindness here-

a) the snowfall that fell in Febuary- which is also skewwing the Winter Index

of course its skewing it as you put it but the point of the index is that, over the whole winter it gives a very good indication of what has happened where any of us live.

Now tell me how many winters in the past 20 years perhaps the last 30 years have given large areas of the country a continuous snow cover (by Met O definition)? This winter has, even in normally snowless Donaster I had snow covering more than half the ground for 8 days, almost unheard of. Some parts of the higher suburbs of Sheffield had that for 14 days, that again has not happened for over 15 years if not longer.

I think you are 'skewing' it Steve by trying to get peoples hopes too high.

Th earth is warming, for whatever reason, and thus the chances of getting synoptics like 47 or 63 must diminsih. That is not to say its impossible, just less likely.

So to bemoan that winter 2008-09 is not quite as good as it could have been seems a very negative way of approaching a view.

Again, do we want to see our glass half full or hal empty?

[SMU]

The Winter Index is not being skewed by the snowfall. Actually snowfall amounts here have not been that spectacular

As for the CET that is below 3C

Well

29th November-12th February CET: 2.95,

Assuming January is 3.3

However, there is a greater degree of certainty with this

29th November-10th January CET: 2.5

Mr D- I love the information you provide here, However we both know that post is actually totally meaningless-

I remember West is Best berating me for posting the stats for the end if Feb 05/ first week of March 05 ( or was it 06) because I made a similar post like yours-

Look at the CET information provided above, thats the bottom line- If I went back over the day on Day CET values like you have picking out convienient dates to imply a message then im sure I could find a load more months across the piste that had a below 3c CET- ( maybe 1 or 2 in the most recent 10 year timespan)

I have said a few times already that this hasnt been wholesale a poor Winter, there have been some significantly different patterns, & from a regional perspective ^ like the poster from the Chilters & Nick 2702 who got a lot of snow its been a great Winter, but looking at the bigger picture & the CET V the norm & the last 40 years-

Its been good my not that great-

Lets hope its a stepping stone-

Now tell me how many winters in the past 20 years perhaps the last 30 years have given large areas of the country a continuous snow cover (by Met O definition)? This winter has, even in normally snowless Donaster I had snow covering more than half the ground for 8 days, almost unheard of. Some parts of the higher suburbs of Sheffield had that for 14 days, that again has not happened for over 15 years if not longer.

I think you are 'skewing' it Steve by trying to get peoples hopes too high.

Th earth is warming, for whatever reason, and thus the chances of getting synoptics like 47 or 63 must diminsih. That is not to say its impossible, just less likely.

So to bemoan that winter 2008-09 is not quite as good as it could have been seems a very negative way of approaching a view.

John -- I must say I am again somewhat disapointed in your response- assuming that I am seeking some sort of dream synoptic Winter- You clearly havent read what I have posted-

Perhaps you could explain to me how Im getting peoples hopes to high- when All I have illustrated in this thread is the prevailing conditions that used to happen over the UK, & the conditions that have developed over the UK since 1988-

Also If you look at the post above a SIMPLE explanation of the CET values & statistics of CET's below 3 have declined to ZERo in the last 10 years-

So how can I be raising expectations??- If anything Im lowering them-

Looking at the Short term & regional Perspective for this year then i can understand some of the comments thinking this is negative, however what that snowfall represents is a 'one off event'- comparable to the SEVERE cold of 87, or the October storm of 87-

Im inferring that people shouldnt skew there perception of our winter- or WINTER'S by taking a one off event & using it as leverage against the continued winter trends-

Again feeling I have to repeat myself, this Winter MAY be a stepping stone to Change in the future, but a isolated regional event in the UK cannot be used to explain away the lack of blocking over Greenland or Scandi- sadly the proof of that is the continued absence of any significant Cold months in the UK-

If you took an Average of the hemisphere warming up by 1 degree then maybe 0c CET's & 1c CET's have gone- but 2c' & 3 C- & below should still easily be achievable-

As for the glass half full or half empty- Thats exactly where it is at the end of this Winter- HALF measure- nothing more-

S

Edited February 16, 2009 by Steve Murr

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

of course its skewing it as you put it but the point of the index is that, over the whole winter it gives a very good indication of what has happened where any of us live.

Now tell me how many winters in the past 20 years perhaps the last 30 years have given large areas of the country a continuous snow cover (by Met O definition)? This winter has, even in normally snowless Donaster I had snow covering more than half the ground for 8 days, almost unheard of. Some parts of the higher suburbs of Sheffield had that for 14 days, that again has not happened for over 15 years if not longer.

I think you are 'skewing' it Steve by trying to get peoples hopes too high.

Th earth is warming, for whatever reason, and thus the chances of getting synoptics like 47 or 63 must diminsih. That is not to say its impossible, just less likely.

So to bemoan that winter 2008-09 is not quite as good as it could have been seems a very negative way of approaching a view.

Again, do we want to see our glass half full or hal empty?

I entirely agree with the perspective notion you suggest.

Regarding the bold bit, IMO it is cyclical, and very subject to change in coming years. But that is debateable for elsewhere of course

[Glacier Point]

My summary of this Winter would be this- ( without including that even larger teapot phrase)

2008 /09 Has shown differences in the height anomaly patterns V more recent hemispheric Patterns, The storm tracks have been further South & or amplified further NW away from the UK, transient spells of weak blocking to the NE have allowed Cold surface air to filter over the UK from time to time from the east or South East & one intense cold pool to hit the UK on the opening of Feb, sadly whilst we have seen colder stagnent air at the surface the prevailing upper air conditions havent maintained anything like what we have seen in decent Winters-

The jet being further South Also allowed a period of Cold zonality to prevail-

Scoring this out of 10, I guess avergae weather & average conditions & Average snow would generate a 5- So I go with 7/10 for snow & 6.5/10 for cold-

Close but no Cigar-

S

A fair assessment Steve. I would put that alongside our expectations re NAO and zonal mean states at the beginning of November within a west QBO and low angular momentum base state.

All things considered, we have IMO done extrordinarily well and returned far more snowfall and persistent cold than could have been expected. It's kind of like assessing the performance of a horse in a handicap where its shouldering a large weight yet runs well.

Performances like this go into the notebook. An east QBO and increased tendency in momentum would remove that weight from the horse's back.

[Weather-history]

Mr D- I love the information you provide here, However we both know that post is actually totally meaningless-

Look at the CET information provided above, thats the bottom line- If I went back over the day on Day CET values like you have picking out convienient dates to imply a message then im sure I could find a load more months across the piste that had a below 3c CET- ( maybe 1 or 2 in the most recent 10 year timespan)

S

Why is it meaningless?

We could have had a 76 day period that has gone sub 3C for the CET?

How many winters since 1987-88 could lay claim to this for that length of time?

Edited February 16, 2009 by Mr_Data

[SMU]

Why is it meaningless?

We could have had a 76 day period that has gone sub 3C for the CET?

How many winters since 1987-88 could lay claim to this for that length of time?

So what is the timespan of below 3c cet for this Winter? ( I dont believe its 76 days)?

Whats the timespan for below 2c this Winter?-

Moreover- who cares?-

the CET series that YOU USE as the bible shows that no month has averaged out below 3c- & cherry picking cant change that-

if we cherry pick now, it makes the use of calender months in the CET series pointless-

Thanks for the post Stewart / Dave- Cheers-

As for Johns & T's post- I get the distinct feeling that people automatically assume that I am forecasting or am somehow expecting a rerun of 63/ 47- When despite countlesss posts to the contrary All I have commented on is the initial thread post & the current Conditions in terms of 500 MB anomalies, Blocking Conditions & related CET values-

I am getting sick of being misquoted & people jumping to the wrong conclusion-

I will leave this thread to let people get on with discussing something that is irrelevent to the initial first post-

PAGE 1

The background to all this is an 'assumption' that the Winter weather in the UK has somehow been effected in such a way either in a dramatic or subtle manner that Easterly/North Easterly winds Combined with very cold upper air do not, or more importantly cannot exist & be sustained any more-

This Winter has done NOTHING to disprove that-

S

Edited February 16, 2009 by Steve Murr

[Weather-history]

the CET series that YOU USE as the bible shows that no month has averaged out below 3c- & cherry picking cant change that-

if we cherry pick now, it makes the use of calender months in the CET series pointless-

Of course it can't change that but look it this way which is more likely in a warming trend?

A fixed period of time [28, 30 or 31] that goes sub 3C or a period of 76 days that goes sub 3C?

As for cherry picking, well you need to e-mail the Met Office because they in a press release in mid December said it was the coldest start to winter for 30 odd years. I would call that cherry picking.

Edited February 16, 2009 by Mr_Data

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Why is it meaningless?

We could have had a 76 day period that has gone sub 3C for the CET?

How many winters since 1987-88 could lay claim to this for that a length of time?

It would appear that that unless it is a calendar month it doesn't count and is meaningless. For some reason. :huh:

Perhaps I'm just being naive, but I didn't expect to see so much disappointment expressed about this winter. Aginst the background of some truly awful winters, the negative comments have genuinely surprised me. And that is my disappointment, not the season itself.

I just think that expectations are far too high too soon. As far as I am concerned so many of the 'assumed' barriers, artifically resurrected in the mind, and that apparently keep the UK in this 'assumed' sub tropical bubble, have been well and truly burst not just over the last winter but prior to that as well. This post 1988 Ian Brown thing is just an over fixation IMO

If we had a 78/79 style winter I am sure it would still be expected to be a 62/63. The grass is always greener etc

Too much pre-occupation with 'persistence factors' IMO. In other words, 'it has been like this since 1988 so it will always be like this'.

[SMU]

Of course it can't change that but look it this way which is more likely in a warming trend?

A fixed period of time [28, 30 or 31] that goes sub 3C or a period of 76 days that goes sub 3C?

As for cherry picking, well you need to e-mail the Met Office because they in a press release in mid December said it was the coldest start to winter for 30 odd years. I would call that cherry picking.

Very very last post As i have given up posting here-

The MET office defines our climo by the CET series, it always has done & probably always will do- The MET office press release is in my opinion VERY misleading to the 'general public' because actually the MET office have cherry picked data & timespans to prove a point- but actually its pointless,-

The final CET for December was 3.5c- so actually using the correct CET data it was the coldest start to a Winter for 12 years, being that 1996 had a colder December-

the same can be said for the end of Jan- Coldest for 12 Years-

However many days they used in Dec to represent the 'coldest start to a Winter in 30 years' may have been 5, may have been 10 it bears little meaning on the point of this thread- & the overall picture of UK Winters- its what I would refer to as a statistical Quirk that the opeing 7 /10 days co incided with the advent of a cold spell ( mostly inversion cold as well)

What it doesnt say however that once again this cold whatever type it was hasnt been SUSTAINED

S