The Curse Of The Modern Winter

[PersianPaladin]

My family still think im mad when a cold spell is on its way. I used to drive my brother insane when I shared a bedroom with him.

I don't mean to be rude but I honestly believe some of the posts on this thread are a knee jerk reaction to the current model output. I know Steve is referrring to the last time a cold upper pool of air hit these shores but ultimately the discussion is why the synoptic patterns have changed. However what some seem to be ignoring is I proved with a chart from Feb 05 that these synoptics actually occured only 3yrs ago!!

That is a point wrt the Feb 2005 easterly; albeit the sourcing at upper-levels was not particularly deep in terms of cold although it did deliver respectable snowfall to parts of Durham and some eastern areas.

The 500hpa anamolies that Mr.Murr posted (great post btw Steve) really are telling in terms of the 'even larger teapot' period with lower pressure over Greenland\Iceland and subpolar regions and high-pressure further south. Really quite telling and shows that SUSTAINED easterlies and continental outbreaks of deep cold are very unlikely these days.

nothing changes in my view, and by that I mean this.

Listen to one expert and you are convinced by their views, listen to another, and if you can keep an open mind, they too convince you the other way.

I suspect, somewhere between the two theories is the truth but I have no way of, in turn, proving that!

hope that makes sense.

In the mid/late 80's, working in the Met office I was priveleged to hear both sides of the argument then going on, from experts in their respective fileds, the earth is on the edge of a warming not seen for millions of years V some parts of the globe are on the edge of the next Ice Age.

Both sides were equally convincing to me although the official stance took up the GW idea.

Thats a good point; and I've always held the view of looking at both sides of the scientific argument.

However; my view is that the physics of climate change is pretty compelling in terms of global warming which in turn has a strong case for anthropogenic influence - tree felling, cattle ranching, industry, etc slowly building greenhouse gas levels so as to eventually manifest at the upper levels in the form of stratospheric cooling; in turn affecting the morphology of the stratospheric vortex - interactions with the tropospheric vortices. Also this extra energy at lower levels may well be influencing the ITCZ; the portfolio of SST and convective and convective-inhibitive events in the Pacific and Indian Ocean - all having consequences for the upper-wave dynamics that in turn may intensify the cyclogenesis more northward in Eurasia as it interacts with a changing tropospheric vortex (for example). A more northern PFJ, less amplified and tanked arctic flow seems more evident in the last 20 or 30 years.

[len]

Like many others I had hoped the favourable teleconnections and the extremly low solar activity might make this winter different.

Steve's excellent post has got me back to thinking about the stratosphere and Ozone depletion again........

From Wikipaedia............

"Observations on ozone layer depletion

The most pronounced decrease in ozone has been in the lower stratosphere. ...........Reductions of up to 70% in the ozone column observed in the austral (southern hemispheric) spring over Antarctica and first reported in 1985 (Farman et al 1985) are continuing.[8] Through the 1990s, total column ozone in September and October have continued to be 40-50% lower than pre-ozone-hole values. In the Arctic the amount lost is more variable year-to-year than in the Antarctic. The greatest declines, up to 30%, are in the winter and spring, when the stratosphere is colder..............]

Ozone depletion also explains much of the observed reduction in stratospheric and upper tropospheric temperatures.[10][11] The source of the warmth of the stratosphere is the absorption of UV radiation by ozone, hence reduced ozone leads to cooling. Some stratospheric cooling is also predicted from increases in greenhouse gases such as CO2; however the ozone-induced cooling appears to be dominant

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_depletion"

emphases are mine

Len

Edited December 16, 2008 by len

[PersianPaladin]

Like many others I had hoped the favourable teleconnections and the extremly low solar activity might make this winter different.

Steve's excellent post has got me back to thinking about the stratosphere and Ozone depletion again........

From Wikipaedia............

"Observations on ozone layer depletion

The most pronounced decrease in ozone has been in the lower stratosphere. ...........Reductions of up to 70% in the ozone column observed in the austral (southern hemispheric) spring over Antarctica and first reported in 1985 (Farman et al 1985) are continuing.[8] Through the 1990s, total column ozone in September and October have continued to be 40-50% lower than pre-ozone-hole values. In the Arctic the amount lost is more variable year-to-year than in the Antarctic. The greatest declines, up to 30%, are in the winter and spring, when the stratosphere is colder..............]

Ozone depletion also explains much of the observed reduction in stratospheric and upper tropospheric temperatures.[10][11] The source of the warmth of the stratosphere is the absorption of UV radiation by ozone, hence reduced ozone leads to cooling. Some stratospheric cooling is also predicted from increases in greenhouse gases such as CO2; however the ozone-induced cooling appears to be dominant

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_depletion"

emphases are mine

Len

I rarely use wikipedia as my primary source of information; as often is the case the sources are not always reliable - albeit it can sometimes provide you with good leads.

I think referring to ozone-induced cooling as 'dominant' is somewhat misleading given that different areas of the stratosphere are cooling more. Also, the quantity of CFC's as well as usage-time in the troposphere and lower stratosphere compared to that of greenhouse gases are negligible. I think the wiki source is referring to cooling in the lower part of the stratosphere with certain attribution to CFC's - but there is also evidence that greenhouse gases are responsible for greater anamolous cooling of the higher levels of the stratosphere and a larger vertical profile as a result.

http://www.atmosphere.mpg.de/enid/20c.html

[Roger J Smith]

I tend to the view that the recent 20-year peak of intensity in the zonal flow over the Atlantic sector is a natural cycle that is probably on the decline, which would increase the probability of a colder winter showing up soon, possibly even this winter (as is already the trend).

A similar cycle has probably been underway over the eastern Pacific for about the same time, I think the last really cold winter in this part of the world was 1989-90 although 1996-97 was almost a "top ten per cent" sort of winter here. And now this winter is starting out like the two worst winters on record in this region over the past century, 1949-50 and 1968-69. There is no sign of a pattern change for us in the longer term either, so we may find this winter rivalling the records set in those winters.

I don't totally discount the greenhouse gas contribution to the overall climate picture, but I am convinced that the circulation is driven by natural and largely external factors, while the greenhouse gases mainly modify the final results of that circulation -- is this factor capable of overwhelming the natural signals and creating new circulation patterns? The jury is still out on that, and I think the answer will come in mainly in the negative.

It would certainly change the debate if western Europe got into a severe cold winter spell, but I suppose we will all have to accept that these questions require long periods of time for real clarity.

[VillagePlank]

The even larger teapot has been around for at least 150 years. Plenty of anecdotal evidence that says 'in my day it was colder and snowier' all the way back to the 1850's

[Bristawl Si]

The even larger teapot has been around for at least 150 years. Plenty of anecdotal evidence that says 'in my day it was colder and snowier' all the way back to the 1850's

My take on the weather of the last 20 years here in Bristol is that generally late summer/autumn has been 'longer' than in my childhood and early 20s i.e. warmth lasting past what i once knew as 'end of summer' ; winters have been 'shorter', mild, v.little snow. The period 78 -87 produced some great winters, with plenty of snow. However, the 70s mainly had mild, wet winters.

I've read press archives going back 100 years+ into the 1800s and there were definitely more snow events in my neck of the woods. In fact, one aspect of our winter weather that has but all disappeared is the 'winter channel low'. This used to turn up in southern england at least once in most winters and a number of press articles indicate it turned up at least 3 times some winters giving us southerners raging blizzards!

It does appear that there's been a change in the last 20 years, but could it just be part of a global cycle? Maybe we will gradually return to a more snowy winter environment in the coming years.

Edited December 17, 2008 by Bristle boy

[Zerouali lives]

A curse of the even larger teapot...it's been sub zero on the Cairgorm ski slopes since mid November, however after just one mild day (Tuesday), the Cairngorm webcam shows patches of heather and broken runs.

[Richard Taylor]

As a callow youth (late 70s/early 80s) I recall playing in snow up to my knees in places. However my parents tell me that in their day the snow was even deeper & longer lasting.

I think when I was younger I seem to think the snow in any showers was thicker & showers longer lasting.

Ah well, maybe my memory is playing tricks the older I get!

I have a picture from 1906 of the main street in Aberdeen (Union St) after a "great snowstorm". The drifts were about 10ft high at the side of the street - will we see those again??

I should stress 1906 IS before my time!!!

[swfc]

Dont be dragged in to this even larger teapot debate.All it is ,is a way of trying to make people look stupid when they give an honest opinion about how they see things panning out.Lets be honest if it was that easy some of the so called pros on here would be making a mint.Hm.

[PersianPaladin]

Dont be dragged in to this even larger teapot debate.All it is ,is a way of trying to make people look stupid when they give an honest opinion about how they see things panning out.Lets be honest if it was that easy some of the so called pros on here would be making a mint.Hm.

Have you read any of the posts here in detail?

Its not about 'making a mint'; its about spelling out and summarising facts from research that has been done already but not made public enough it seems.

[Zerouali lives]

As a callow youth (late 70s/early 80s) I recall playing in snow up to my knees in places. However my parents tell me that in their day the snow was even deeper & longer lasting.

I think when I was younger I seem to think the snow in any showers was thicker & showers longer lasting.

Ah well, maybe my memory is playing tricks the older I get!

I have a picture from 1906 of the main street in Aberdeen (Union St) after a "great snowstorm". The drifts were about 10ft high at the side of the street - will we see those again??

I should stress 1906 IS before my time!!!

I've seen those pictures too - We will not see 10 foot drifts in Union Street for many years/decades yet. The heat from the buildings, all the car and people activity and it's sea level altitude mean a repeat of that is nigh on impossible these days. Still possible up Northfield, Hazlehead way though around the 140m mark, 5 miles away from the sea's influence..

[stewfox]

I don't know if this is relevant to this topic, or if its been posted already but here goes.

I was listening to Radio 4 this evening and they had a long piece about the mild winter that Russia is experiencing.

According to the report Russian winters have been getting a lot milder over the last 20 years, and the Moscovites are not very happy about it.

The last record breaking cold in Moscow was Jan 2006

http://www.msf.org/msfinternational/invoke...ethod=full_html

I was there in Feb 2006 and max -14c during the day (although not a record of course) it was a bitter few months. This year so far is a lot milder in the west of russia. Anyway max -6c for Moscow of monday its cooling down

Although we have had a few mild winters some people still think we had 3 months of lying snow every year in England

We didnt ,snow has always been rare and caused much excitment wether thats 1973 or 2008 (and all the periods I can remember in between)

Edited December 17, 2008 by stewfox

[andy_leics22]

My family still think im mad when a cold spell is on its way. I used to drive my brother insane when I shared a bedroom with him. !!

Sounds just like me mate lol.

When I was about 14 years old and I heard we might get snow and I didn't want to go school the next day I would pray and sit watching out the window at the clouds to see if they were turning orange and snow was on the way

Now i'm not quite that bad! Although I check the models every day and when a cold snap is ongoing I tend to be up all night even if I have the slightest chance of seeing some snow and then the next day I feel absolutely like death warmed up and then sleep all day if I get the chance. I can carry that on a few more nights if the chance of seeing a few flakes is there and by the end of it i'm feeling really bad. I can't help it though, my family think i'm mad with the snow and I took my dog for a walk on the park at 6am in April when it snowed lol but I have some real good memories when I was a kid of snow and now I have grown up I am still exactly the same.

[len]

The current situation, with our progged mid-latitude High over UK, reminds me of something I’ve noticed as a crucial part of the “even larger teapot”.

This High looks doomed to sit under (South of) the PFJ.

Despite favourable Teleconnections/Solar cycle/Synoptics there is, as yet, no sign that Atlantic Lows will dive under it. Although I have read many optimistic posts calling for energy to dive SE and Always seeing Heights in Svalbard it hasn’t happened yet.

And I cannot recall the jet undercutting in any recent winter.

Normally the best we get is a bifurcated jet somewhere in the Atlantic quadrant of the globe,….but always, always, always the energy is over the top, not underneath.

But, in my living memory and experience it was relatively frequent for large Atlantic winter storms to enter France/The Channel/The Med in winter. NEVER now!

I would love some insights or comments from experts such as JH/GP/SM on such as

(1)Why the PFJ can no longer undercut? Is it because we only have warm Highs of Sub-Tropical origin?

(2)Why can the PFJ be to our South all Summer as it was (frustratingly) all the summer of 2008?

(3) Each winter I watch the JetStream maps http://wxmaps.org/pix/hemi.jet.html

I am always amazed at the way the Northern arm, in the Atlantic quadrant, will tie knots in itself rather than take a visually short and easy route to join the Southerly arm of the Jet. Why?

(4)Leading on from this. The Jet is often unitary around the rest of the globe. Therefore it has a lower-latitude, mean-position. In the Atlantic Winter this bifurcation creates two Jets. The stronger Northern one is always way above us….ergo mild Winters. Why is the bifurcation an Atlantic phenomenon?

Thanks Guys

Len

[ChartViewer]

The current situation, with our progged mid-latitude High over UK, reminds me of something I’ve noticed as a crucial part of the “even larger teapot”.

This High looks doomed to sit under (South of) the PFJ.

Thanks Guys

Len

Len,

That is one of the best posts I have read......And asks more questions than answered but so true for the last 15/18 years

Debate away

I think it should be moved to another thread as maybe lost in here.

Regards

Edited December 18, 2008 by ChartViewer

[SLEETY]

Good thread this-

It isn't just the UK though that has suffered these ridiculous mild winters since the late80s.

Id love to be able to look at the temperature anomalies for Scandinavia in jan feb march since then-must be hugely positive.

You rarely seem to see severe cold in these parts any more-certainly nothing like in the 80s where max temps of -25c or lower were comon over there during the winter

And obviously since that is the direction we get our coldest weather from-when we do get Easterlies they are never as cold as they used to be.

I remember during that bitter spell in Jan 82 Mike Fish mentioning that Temps in Finland had fallen to -45c,and that this bitter air was heading our way "but hopefully it wont be quite as cold when it reaches over here" lol-well it did hit -27c-so not bad

[Snowyowl9]

The current situation, with our progged mid-latitude High over UK.

And I cannot recall the jet undercutting in any recent winter.

(1)Why the PFJ can no longer undercut?

(2)Why can the PFJ be to our South all Summer as it was (frustratingly) all the summer of 2008?

The stronger Northern one is always way above us.

Thanks Guys

Len

As far as what you say.

It has happened since 1988 a number of times I would say since 1988.

Heres the most recent January I can find with an undercutting low which gave snow and bitter low temps got down to -9c here.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120030107.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120030108.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120030109.gif

The last winter or winters which had a weak northern arm of the jet was February 2005 and winter 2005/06 when the energy went into the southern arm of the jet as far as I remember seeing.

[johnholmes]

(1)Why the PFJ can no longer undercut? Is it because we only have warm Highs of Sub-Tropical origin?

(2)Why can the PFJ be to our South all Summer as it was (frustratingly) all the summer of 2008?

(3) Each winter I watch the JetStream maps http://wxmaps.org/pix/hemi.jet.html

I am always amazed at the way the Northern arm, in the Atlantic quadrant, will tie knots in itself rather than take a visually short and easy route to join the Southerly arm of the Jet. Why?

(4)Leading on from this. The Jet is often unitary around the rest of the globe. Therefore it has a lower-latitude, mean-position. In the Atlantic Winter this bifurcation creates two Jets. The stronger Northern one is always way above us….ergo mild Winters. Why is the bifurcation an Atlantic phenomenon?

Len

shush, don't tell anyone in the climate thread but GW may well have something to do with it.

[J07]

Why is the bifurcation an Atlantic phenomenon?

I think the polar jet splits in the Australia/NZ area also. Apparently it has something to do with the exact shape of Antarctica, amongst other things no doubt.

[len]

There now seems to be good agreement on a trend towards the squashing down of the current block towards a more zonal setup.

And I must confess to my tentative hopes, that this Winter might just possibly buck the trend, are diminishing.

It's taken an agonising fortnight for minus-five uppers to arrive, and the 528dam isn't even expected to cover England until sometime Monday/Tuesday. So it has only just begun to be a theoretical-snow-possible situation.

The faux cold is not only disappointing, it was very dreary due to inversion cloud.

And it appears that now some Arctic air has finally arrived to the continent it won't be advected our way for very long.

So, with the Stratosphere cooling (as per usual now), and a La Nina starting-up, I feel the window of opportunity for a real Winter is closing. This interesting spell has failed to live up to the promise of some of the model output. The High never quite got North enough and Arctic air was not engaged soon enough. The High has determinedly kept a Euro link and prevented real undercutting.

The Southern Jet has never really got going or been convincing.

I fear the curse of the even larger teapot remains

Len

[Schnee]

It could all change soon...

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,...1869313,00.html

There's been quakes recently in Yellowstone. I'm sure most know it's a giant volcano...

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

The faux cold is not only disappointing, it was very dreary due to inversion cloud.

In the 'even larger teapot' one might argue even cold inversions are not what they use to be!

This cloudy mild/cold dreary mix may be called a 'Cool Bartlett', the only half-as-miserable son of the dreaded 'Bartlett' or 'Euro' High which can bring very mild south-westerlies and persistant anti-cyclonic gloom to Britain for weeks and weeks.

However, I don't quite believe what I'm saying because I think the 'even larger teapot', if it references anything real at all, is a climate pattern due to variables that can change and maybe are in the process of changing.

Edit: Stelmer, earthquake swarms at Yellowstone are not new. That report has been somewhat 'debunked' by knowledgable people in a thread on another board here.

Edited January 3, 2009 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Stratos Ferric]

The current situation, with our progged mid-latitude High over UK, reminds me of something I've noticed as a crucial part of the "even larger teapot".

This High looks doomed to sit under (South of) the PFJ.

Despite favourable Teleconnections/Solar cycle/Synoptics there is, as yet, no sign that Atlantic Lows will dive under it. Although I have read many optimistic posts calling for energy to dive SE and Always seeing Heights in Svalbard it hasn't happened yet.

And I cannot recall the jet undercutting in any recent winter.

Normally the best we get is a bifurcated jet somewhere in the Atlantic quadrant of the globe,….but always, always, always the energy is over the top, not underneath.

But, in my living memory and experience it was relatively frequent for large Atlantic winter storms to enter France/The Channel/The Med in winter. NEVER now!

I would love some insights or comments from experts such as JH/GP/SM on such as

(1)Why the PFJ can no longer undercut? Is it because we only have warm Highs of Sub-Tropical origin?

(2)Why can the PFJ be to our South all Summer as it was (frustratingly) all the summer of 2008?

(3) Each winter I watch the JetStream maps http://wxmaps.org/pix/hemi.jet.html

I am always amazed at the way the Northern arm, in the Atlantic quadrant, will tie knots in itself rather than take a visually short and easy route to join the Southerly arm of the Jet. Why?

(4)Leading on from this. The Jet is often unitary around the rest of the globe. Therefore it has a lower-latitude, mean-position. In the Atlantic Winter this bifurcation creates two Jets. The stronger Northern one is always way above us….ergo mild Winters. Why is the bifurcation an Atlantic phenomenon?

Thanks Guys

Len

Len,

I suspect 3 and 4 are related. As to why the PFJ is, by copmparison with the rest of the globe, well north across the Atlantic, I'm afraid it's simply a function of the sea being warmer (and the Atlantic hugely anomalously so for latitude) than the land in winter. The jet tends to run strongest where the thermal gradient aloft is steepest, though there is much complication in this - the atmosphere is essentially fluid and has some inertia in its flow, hence for instance a wave in the flow may propagate one way or another. The jet will rarely flow along what you'd take to be the 'visual' straight line, certainly across long distances, because fluid dynamics and the rules of angular momentum, combined with the effects of the spin of the earth, tend to make the jet run in long waves.

The flow across Asia is always much more fragmented; the huge massifs across the boundary of the Indian and Eurasian plates cause turbulence aloft, by comparison the NA is almost a perfect surface.

My suspicion for a number of years is that with slightly warmer SSTs, and reduced extent of polar ice at the margins, bifurcation of the jet is more prevalent. This tends to be doing two things: firstly the main warm:cold boundary is shunted N and E of the UK on average, making our winters milder, and far less inclined to experience sustained (7 days or more) spells of cold, where there is a sustained feed of cold source air. Secondly, the flow to the north tends to produce eddies; these cause a piling up of air aloft and surface HP, often close by our E/NE; this pattern seems to play out ay any time of year and, whilst I haven't checked, I sense an increased tendency in our weather to intervals of dry weather followed by intervals of very wet weather.

I think the polar jet splits in the Australia/NZ area also. Apparently it has something to do with the exact shape of Antarctica, amongst other things no doubt.

The southern jet tends to be far more stable simply because there is very little landmass around 50-60S right around the globe.

[Don]

Whilst I'm not throwing the towel in just yet for this winter as it's only early January, I do think this Winter may pan out similar to 2001/02 :wacko: The latest model runs certainly don't look good and if a La Nina does develop, I wouldn't have thought this would bode too well for February. That said, I think the second half of this Winter would probably be less mild than 2002. We'll have to see, but ATM I'm disappointed with developments and fear that the original Met Office Winter forecast could end up being close to the mark.

A couple of questions regarding La Nina. Isn't it only expected to be a weak affair? If so, would this not have much of an impact on our weather conditions for the remainder of the Winter? I think that the Met Office currently only expect it to be weak.

Cheers

Edited January 3, 2009 by Don

[chionomaniac]

Steve a great post, well thought out and presented. I feel that an Easterly is not out of the question but is probably less likely. I agree the cooler on average stratosphere is responsible for the position and strength of the tropospheric polar vortex and the associated jetstream path since the mid 80's.

The famous 1991 Easterly followed a not inconsiderable mid winter SSW in January 1991

Do you not think that if we had a mid winter warming such as that in January this (or more likely next) year that northern blocking could occur in the right area for us to get an Easterly. Yes the cooler stratosphere will have an effect for a default winter pattern but surely a SSW throws all this out of the window?

c

Could we have found the key to break the curse?

Time will tell!