The Curse Of The Modern Winter

[johnholmes]

I'm sorry you feel I'm misquoting Steve, I honestly do my best to try and answer any posts in a constructive manner.

I think this thread, like one or two others, is getting a bit too overheated.

We all have our own perspective on how this winter has been.

Colder and snowier for me than for some time.

I am a realist, and much as I like snow and frost, in reasonable meaure, NOT the persistence I endured in 1962-63, but the earth is warming and it must surely make getting winters colder and snowier than we have/are currently having (December 1 to end February) is less likely than it was in the years of my childhood.

Lets all look forward to a nice mix of sunshine, warmth, a few storms and even a few shortish spells of heat in the summer, well that is my ideal anyway.

Next winter who knows, we all have to wait and see.

[Paul]

To be fair to Steve, I think he's just saying that you could pick a period across pretty much any winter and work out it's CET to prove pretty much any point you like - be it to show warming, cooling or whatever. So perhaps for that reason it's safer to stick within the normal rules - eg to show stats over a set period, which in normal cases is per month or per season.

As for this winter, although the snow has been pretty minimal here, looking at the bigger picture in terms of conditions on the ground then I would have to conclude it's been far more wintry than in recent times. Synoptically, perhaps the dream setups haven't been that forthcoming but I'm not sure how relevant that is after the event.

If you compared it to classic winter's of course it's not been on a par with them, but if you're looking for an indicator that colder winter's as still possible then it (imo) has offered that up.

[SMU]

To be fair to Steve, I think he's just saying that you could pick a period across pretty much any winter and work out it's CET to prove pretty much any point you like - be it to show warming, cooling or whatever. So perhaps for that reason it's safer to stick within the normal rules - eg to show stats over a set period, which in normal cases is per month or per season.

As for this winter, although the snow has been pretty minimal here, looking at the bigger picture in terms of conditions on the ground then I would have to conclude it's been far more wintry than in recent times. Synoptically, perhaps the dream setups haven't been that forthcoming but I'm not sure how relevant that is after the event.

If you compared it to classic winter's of course it's not been on a par with them, but if you're looking for an indicator that colder winter's as still possible then it (imo) has offered that up.

Perhaps its all in the wrong thread then- Because this was about what I posted in bigger font Above- which is different to most of the post content in nearly all the replies seen today-

Its turned into a winter summary thread-

However even in Mr D's post the CET runs at just under the 3c Line- so not exactly overwhelming-

The positives with this Winter are there - I dont think ive denied them- Coldest for 12 years, but certainly a lot more snow than most can remember-

that doesnt change what i posted this thread for though, it may herald a small stepping stone to bigger & better things but thats about it-

S

Edited February 16, 2009 by Steve Murr

[John Cox]

The results for cold this winter in Ireland have been great. Our met office have said it has been the coldest in 30 years.

1st week in Feb delivered the most snow since 1991 in Dublin. We have had more frost in any year that I can remember.

And the final proof..... My gas bill came in for the last 2 months period and it was double the cost of what it normally is.

So for use here in Ireland, I would say very close with a medium sized cigar

[smhouston]

The positives with this Winter are there - I dont think ive denied them- Coldest for 12 years, but certainly a lot more snow than most can remember-

that doesnt change what i posted this thread for though, it may herald a small stepping stone to bigger & better things but thats about it-

S

Since what year do you class winters as being modern? Personally I've just seen snow laying on the ground for the past 2 weeks (even with temperatures as high as 6c) with no rapid thawing. I've also seen snow fall on at least the quarter of those days. To me that is something I have not seen for a long long time.

Has it been a classic winter as in 62/63? No, it hasn't

Has it been a even larger teapot? No it hasn't

It's been nothing magical but it's been nothing bad neither. How often can we say we've had a cold period where the WHOLE country has seen snowfall?

[LadyPakal]

I dread to think what the moaning would have been like, if we'd had another winter like last years.

Maybe the best way to gauge this winter is to ask the kids what they think.

Edited February 16, 2009 by LadyPakal

[SMU]

Since what year do you class winters as being modern? Personally I've just seen snow laying on the ground for the past 2 weeks (even with temperatures as high as 6c) with no rapid thawing. I've also seen snow fall on at least the quarter of those days. To me that is something I have not seen for a long long time.

Has it been a classic winter as in 62/63? No, it hasn't

Has it been a even larger teapot? No it hasn't

It's been nothing magical but it's been nothing bad neither. How often can we say we've had a cold period where the WHOLE country has seen snowfall?

The thread was about how Winters in the UK Has been different since ~ 1988- pertaining to a certain type of weather pattern-

In terms of What the UK has seen in terms of Snowfall, then yes this hasnt been a 'even larger teapot' for Want of a Better phrase-

However in terms of recorded monthly CET Values you couldnt argue that anything significant has changed-....

The snowfall events were a one off- just like the events I put in the other post- they do not prove anything,- After the OCT 87 storm we didnt suddenly say that Octobers are getting more Storms, much the same as inferring that after this event our winters are getting more frequent snow events-

The reason your snow hung around for so long was in most regions because of the depth & also because of the stangent cold surface air-

When the eventual thread comes around ' How was Winter 08/09 for you' then most of the post replies from today could probably be moved there,- possibly yours included-

This thread is about something different- Sustainable cold from the East & North east, that would bring the possibility of sustainable snow-

This one off event needs to be put into the right context im afraid-

I dread to think what the moaning would have been like, if we'd had another winter like last years

Whos actually moaning???

This was supposed to be civilised debate around a particular topic- If you remove all the off topic posts we would be almost back at page 1- Yours & this post being deleted pretty much straight away-

S

Edited February 16, 2009 by Steve Murr

[high ground birmingham]

Reading this thread....It seems like all the winters pre-1988 had severe cold from the North or East. This is a huge misrepresentation going on in here especially to the young.

It seems to be that people have selective memories and applying that to every winter. Note: a 1982 spell, 1987 spell and 1991 spell did NOT occur every winter. I'm not sure why people are comparing this winter to those spells when in fact they are pretty rare.

Im sorry to say TEITS, i'm quite disappointed that your expecting a 7-10 day sub-zero spell when these are so rare.

Tbh there has really been no sustained mild spell this winter: my definition of which would be widespread maxes of 10-13C in SW winds with night time mins of 7-9C. Why are people saying there has been a lack of cold when there has been such a LACK OF MILD. Im sorry to say some people like just picking out negatives and ignoring the positives.....

Regards, hgb

[cheeky_monkey]

i think it all comes down to age..on how your view is skewed with what constitutes a good winter...i would wager most members under 25..would consider winter to have been a good one in terms of cold and snow..those say over 35 would tend to disagree..having experienced much colder and snowier spells... me i think that maybe global warming has scuppered what could have been a much colder winter..or also it maybe a precurser to an even colder one next year who knows??...is it me or do cold winters/hot summers tend to cluster??

[Yeti]

Well I for one completely agree with you Steve - and remember like you say, the CETs don't really prove that much anyway.

The fact is that when we talk of the "even larger teapot" we are looking for those -10 to -20 uppers (-15 hasn't been seen for a LONG time) sustained over a long period of time in an UNSETTLED, NON-INVERSION type spell. That's what leads to severe cold spells, not the inversion at the beginning of January, no matter what wonders it did for the CET.

IF we eventually see at least 3 days of -10 uppers, preferably with -15 at times, and a strong block around Svalbard, then I will reconsider the above.

But this winter, we have only got half way there - the southerly jet WITHOUT the blocking to the N (even the beginning of Feb wasn't really a classic "easterly draw" block with a S'ly veering E'ly and by fortune a cold pool wrapped up in it).

Let's hope, though, that the other half will be completed in the near future.

Just to add, another challenge of the even larger teapot is to get the juicy synoptics in January, and not at the beginning of March and end of Feb.

[johnholmes]

The thread was about how Winters in the UK Has been different since ~ 1988- pertaining to a certain type of weather pattern-

This was supposed to be civilised debate around a particular topic- If you remove all the off topic posts we would be almost back at page 1- Yours & this post being deleted pretty much straight away-

S

Can't disagree with what the title says Steve or the first post. However, you have certainly not helped matters by rising to the bait of others about is this winter good or bad, in terms of cold/snow/CET etc, when compared to others.

It might be an idea mods to prune through this and anything from any of us that does not fit the title then delete it. Perhaps then all, including Steve, could then discuss, hopefully calmly , what the thread has as a heading?

[high ground birmingham]

Well I for one completely agree with you Steve - and remember like you say, the CETs don't really prove that much anyway.

The fact is that when we talk of the "even larger teapot" we are looking for those -10 to -20 uppers (-15 hasn't been seen for a LONG time) sustained over a long period of time in an UNSETTLED, NON-INVERSION type spell. That's what leads to severe cold spells, not the inversion at the beginning of January, no matter what wonders it did for the CET.

IF we eventually see at least 3 days of -10 uppers, preferably with -15 at times, and a strong block around Svalbard, then I will reconsider the above.

But this winter, we have only got half way there - the southerly jet WITHOUT the blocking to the N (even the beginning of Feb wasn't really a classic "easterly draw" block with a S'ly veering E'ly and by fortune a cold pool wrapped up in it).

Let's hope, though, that the other half will be completed in the near future.

Just to add, another challenge of the even larger teapot is to get the juicy synoptics in January, and not at the beginning of March and end of Feb.

Again your talking as if this used to be a regular occurrence when it definitely wasn't. It is only because we had a cluster of cold spells between 1979 and 1987 that you think this was regular but prior to this...it has not been that we see -15C uppers in Winter all the time.

P.S If your expecting -20 uppers, I don't think this has ever been seen in the UK. I think 1987 had like -18C uppers.

Regards, hgb

[Weather-history]

However even in Mr D's post the CET runs at just under the 3c Line- so not exactly overwhelming-

There is a touch of irony here, you were referring to cherry picking, what you neglect to mention was that was for a 76 day period, which ineffect is a 2 and a half month period.

Also 29th November - 10th January CET: 2.5

Which is a 6 week period and also in what is on average the milder half of the winter. Not in the "colder half" but the "milder half"

I agree no sub 3C month by the looks of it, however the point is weakened by the fact we have had a longer period of time that has gone sub 3C.

Edited February 16, 2009 by Mr_Data

[TEITS]

Im sorry to say TEITS, i'm quite disappointed that your expecting a 7-10 day sub-zero spell when these are so rare.

You know its funny because reading the replies to my post I have seen replies saying "Get real", "Quiet ridiculous","expecting a 7-10 sub zero". If anyone actually reads my post again they will see I said "My ideal cold spell". I ideally would love to win the lottery but im not saying I will!

Now the point im just trying to make is I would ideally like to see a cold spell similiar to those in the 80's. This is where snowfall is frequent, max temps remain below freezing. The question is has our winter been anything like those in the 1980's. The answer is not a chance and it didn't even get close.

The stats will show that this has been a cold winter. However all we have seen is HP bringing surface cold at exactly the right time of the year and plenty of snowfall that fell under marginal conditions that did actually fall as rain for some members. In other words we have been very lucky!

[cj114]

I'll get shot down in flames for this but.................................

The "even larger teapot", the new phrase floating around, is rather like my new Shoes, and likely to last as long!

The Climate has always changed, throughout History, and will continue to do so. The weather is varied and interesting. But no one can possibly say what will happen in the future. And I mean NO one.

[Yeti]

Again your talking as if this used to be a regular occurrence when it definitely wasn't. It is only because we had a cluster of cold spells between 1979 and 1987 that you think this was regular but prior to this...it has not been that we see -15C uppers in Winter all the time.

P.S If your expecting -20 uppers, I don't think this has ever been seen in the UK. I think 1987 had like -18C uppers.

Regards, hgb

-20 clipped Kent in 1987 and 1956 at least.

Look, I know and everyone knows it didn't happen every winter. But it DID happen! At least every 5 years and during the 80s nearly every year, sometimes more than once a year.

Also people talk of the early 70s as though they were not very cold. But even 72 shows that severe easterly spells happened. We haven't seen ONE, in 20 years!

[johnholmes]

Again your talking as if this used to be a regular occurrence when it definitely wasn't. It is only because we had a cluster of cold spells between 1979 and 1987 that you think this was regular but prior to this...it has not been that we see -15C uppers in Winter all the time.

P.S If your expecting -20 uppers, I don't think this has ever been seen in the UK. I think 1987 had like -18C uppers.

Regards, hgb

you may well be right but if not someone will point out that fact

the only data that will support or otherwise the claim and counterclaim is

1) apply the Mr D winter index for your area for each winter since you were born

2) In terms of temperature, use the CET data, yes its only for a specified area, but it does GENERALLY give a fairly accurate flavour for much of England and Wales but NOT neccsarily so for Ireland and Scotland, which it is not intended to do anyway. And that cannot be done until at least the initial data set is in, whether you use Manley/NW or whatever, until early March.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

You know its funny because reading the replies to my post I have seen replies saying "Get real", "Quiet ridiculous","expecting a 7-10 sub zero". If anyone actually reads my post again they will see I said "My ideal cold spell". I ideally would love to win the lottery but im not saying I will!

Now the point im just trying to make is I would ideally like to see a cold spell similiar to those in the 80's. This is where snowfall is frequent, max temps remain below freezing. The question is has our winter been anything like those in the 1980's. The answer is not a chance and it didn't even get close.

The stats will show that this has been a cold winter. However all we have seen is HP bringing surface cold at exactly the right time of the year and plenty of snowfall that fell under marginal conditions that did actually fall as rain for some members. In other words we have been very lucky!

Dave, although perhaps feeling a bit more let down than necessary, you have said nothing ridiculous at all . You have just suggested an ideal that we would all like. At least those of us who like cold winters. Although I am pleased with the winter as a whole in terms of pattern. lower temps and a seasonal feel for a change - in terms of a classic 91 or 87 type spell then it has certainly fallen short, and the easterly at the start of the month was one to treasue in my case for about about 36 hours! I did much better in terms of snowfall and duration of snowfall in the Dec 05 easterly for eg.

The only thing that I would refer to as ridiculous is the humanly imposed restrictions on temp 'it can't go below that anymore' or restrictions in terms of comparative winters ie 'we can't get winters like this anymore'. I can't hack the 'even larger teapot' cliche basically! :lol:

[Thundery wintry showers]

Dave, although perhaps feeling a bit more let down than necessary, you have said nothing ridiculous at all :lol: . You have just suggested an ideal that we would all like. At least those of us who like cold winters.

Nay; my 'ideal' winter would have relatively short-lived but intense cold snowy spells (say, a few days to a week) separated by much milder interludes- and I think there's quite a number of others who, while welcoming cold/snow generally, are not in favour of a 1947 or 1963.

This winter has been the other way around with its cold spells- fairly prolonged, fairly moderate. Still, I'd take it over a 2006/07 any day.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Nay; my 'ideal' winter would have relatively short-lived but intense cold snowy spells (say, a few days to a week) separated by much milder interludes- and I think there's quite a number of others who, while welcoming cold/snow generally, are not in favour of a 1947 or 1963.

This winter has been the other way around with its cold spells- fairly prolonged, fairly moderate. Still, I'd take it over a 2006/07 any day.

Fair enough, you are right! Not everyone.

Not everyone is a born eskimo like me!

It is ironic really because I would bet that there are not many on here who would actually relish and enjoy the sort of prolonged freeze that I would - if it actually happened. Yet, despite this winter falling far short of that 'ideal' I am actually very pleased with this winter even though in terms of snowfall (for me) it has not been anything special. I think it is more to do with the point you have made that this winter is a good indicator as to what still is possible. That for me is the best thing when taking into account very unexceptional synoptics. Oct 08 set the scene very well with that London snowfall. There was no northern blocking then.

[high ground birmingham]

Nay; my 'ideal' winter would have relatively short-lived but intense cold snowy spells (say, a few days to a week) separated by much milder interludes- and I think there's quite a number of others who, while welcoming cold/snow generally, are not in favour of a 1947 or 1963.

This winter has been the other way around with its cold spells- fairly prolonged, fairly moderate. Still, I'd take it over a 2006/07 any day.

I think that is a fair assessment of things. 2007-08 was even more shocking that 2006-07.

Certainly, there has been prolonged spells lasting 13-17 days. That means that each cold spells is one sixth of the winter!! which is quite impressive.

e.g Dec 25th- 12th Jan AND Feb 1st-Feb 14th

Thing I'll remember from this cold winter is the notable lack of mild.

Regards, hgb

[reef]

The stats will show that this has been a cold winter. However all we have seen is HP bringing surface cold at exactly the right time of the year and plenty of snowfall that fell under marginal conditions that did actually fall as rain for some members. In other words we have been very lucky!

Yes here is one of those areas. Just 2 days of lying snow over 3 events here, only one of which had a measurable depth and all were gone in less than 12 hours. Using Mr Data's winter index shows in comparison to the last 5 winters it has been nothing special:

2003/04: 51

2004/05: 36

2005/06: 53

2006/07: 18

2007/08: 17

2008/09: 56

Ill have to look back and see what 2000/01 came out as. I suspect it will be much higher as the number of snow days and air frosts both significantly out-number this winter.

When I hear 'modern winter', I think of:

- A lack of potent cold and snowy snaps, i.e (Greenland high / Siberian sourced easterlies)

- Transitionary snow events with poor accumulations (<5cm and for less than 24 hours)

- A lack of ice days,

- Cold brought mostly in the form of inversion cold (a symptom itself of a northerly tracking jet),

- Rather warm low minimum temperatures and lack of frosts (No temperatures below -5C in the winter).

In this location, winter 2008/09 has fulfilled all of these. You may notice I dont mention zonality. Thats because to me, mild spells themselves dont really define a modern winter, as even the best winters often had zonal spells (sometimes lasting a few weeks). The difference is not the mild, but rather the lack of cold to balance it out. I still cant believe despite the lack of any real mild weather and number of cold spells that the winter is still likely to have a mean above 3C. That in itself should tell you something.

Edited February 16, 2009 by reef

[Nick L]

I just think its daft that we have had a winter that is a million times better than the majority of the past 20 years and people are STILL moaning. Someone mentioned this above, if this was a 2006/07 repeat then heaven help us...

This winter I have seen nearly a foot of snow in SOMERSET, had a low temperature of -9c, several ice days and 2 weeks with snow on the ground. What a rubbish winter

Edited February 16, 2009 by nick2702

[La Bise]

And for those of us active in the hills in winter, so much frozen ground that I went weeks without mud on trousers and shoes(I go out every week-end and at night in winter)...No complaint from me!

[Snowly does it]

I still cant believe despite the lack of any real mild weather and number of cold spells that the winter is still likely to have a mean above 3C. That in itself should tell you something.

Then again there have been only 13 winters since 1900 below 3 degrees and none since 1986, so its not that unbelievable - as far as a lack of mild weather goes, there was a significant mild spell in the run in to Christmas of 8 or 9 days which prevented December being a notably cold month and January saw a 2 week spell of weather mixed between average and very mild on occasion (7s and 8s)

The current spell will be a very mild one and may extend beyond the current 4 days or so projection.

The winter as a whole is likely to be a degree to a degree and a half below the 30 year mean which will make it by some distance the coldest season against mean for a considerable amount of time.

However, in relation to the original point, no long draw, drawn out Easterly and no genuine GH - concerning.