The Curse Of The Modern Winter

[Nick L]

Looks like the modern winter has been killed off for this year

[sundog]

Looks like the even larger teapot has been killed off for this year

Its funeral is taking place this coming Sunday

[Nick L]

Its funeral is taking place this coming Sunday

Good idea! I think we should start a thread on Sunday for the funeral I don't think many will be upset!

[Solar Cycles]

I think Mr Data proved that this catchphrase was used many times before in the past!

[noggin]

The lady doing the forecast on the Beeb this aftenoon said this has officially been the coldest Winter for 10 years. Don't shoot me, I'm only the messenger! When did " modern Winters" start, btw, anyone know?

[Nick L]

The lady doing the forecast on the Beeb this aftenoon said this has officially been the coldest Winter for 10 years. Don't shoot me, I'm only the messenger! When did " modern Winters" start, btw, anyone know?

Well I am nearly 17 and I have never seen (or remembered seeing) more than a few inches of snow (apart from on much higher ground). So I would say AT LEAST 10 years.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

i always say it started on the millennium 1 jan 2000, seen very little snow 2000-2009 compared to when i was a little lad

[Yeti]

The lady doing the forecast on the Beeb this aftenoon said this has officially been the coldest Winter for 10 years. Don't shoot me, I'm only the messenger! When did " modern Winters" start, btw, anyone know?

87/88

Then a brief break 91

Oh yes and then another one 95/96

And then...

[The PIT]

Twelve years here however very little snow so it will mostly be forgotten by spring unless something happens and we get a foot of snow which we haven't had for a very long time.

[WhiteXmas]

Sorry to say it Steve but I think you have ended up with egg on your face considering what is upon us.

And to answer your question noggin, there is no such thing as a "even larger teapot". This is just a silly theory/global warming conspiracy. This winter is half way there to proving this.

[noggin]

And to answer your question noggin, there is no such thing as a "even larger teapot". This is just a silly theory/global warming conspiracy. This winter is half way there to proving this.

I think I'm inclined to agree with you, WhiteXmas, re the term being a silly global warming "invention". I believe the lack of snow over, say, the last 15 years has been due to natural cycles, but that is for another area of Netweather!

This Winter, and indeed last Winter, is an improvement on what we have had over, say, the last 15 years and I belive we are at the start of a return to more "traditional Winters"!

Well I am nearly 17 and I have never seen (or remembered seeing) more than a few inches of snow (apart from on much higher ground). So I would say AT LEAST 10 years.

Nearly 17. Oh, bless you! I have 2 daughters just a few years older than you! So, as you have never seen a 62/63 type Winter, I hope you get tons of snow! :wub: B)

Oh, I'm going all mother-hen-like!

[Optimus Prime]

Sorry to say it Steve but I think you have ended up with egg on your face considering what is upon us.

The 'even larger teapot' is still very much in evidence. Background warming increasing surface temperature, and making easterlies like Sunday more and more marginal. There will always be modified air temperature while the human race expands and continues to cover land in warmth conducting concrete.

[Supercell]

Oh dear... talk of the end to the modern winters. I cannot even begin to understand why some of you are so quick to dismiss the fact that it has been the death of cold spells and heavy snow on so many occasions.

I shall be waiting for the words "modified" and "marginal" to appear over the coming days because another epic failure is on the cards. Yes there is some cold to look forward too, but heavy snowfall is far from certain.

The excitement will not even begin to build until I see it on the radar, heading my way.

[Stratos Ferric]

Oh dear... talk of the end to the modern winters. I cannot even begin to understand why some of you are so quick to dismiss the fact that it has been the death of cold spells and heavy snow on so many occasions.

I shall be waiting for the words "modified" and "marginal" to appear over the coming days because another epic failure is on the cards. Yes there is some cold to look forward too, but heavy snowfall is far from certain.

The excitement will not even begin to build until I see it on the radar, heading my way.

Very sensible post.

I remember the sister of a friend of mine years ago coming back from the chemist and mocking the fact that a spotty girl had been stood at the counter gushing about how effective her spot cream was. All Jess could see was that this girl had spots: ergo the girl's claim was a nonsense. I wonder what her spots would have been like without the cream?

One winter, one season, either way proves nothing. Trend and pattern are everything, and any one event's true place in the greater scheme of things can only be seen a few years downstream. Unless this year comes in BELOW 9.43C the climatic rolling mean CET will still rise. The winter that disappears from the same series came in below 1.6C: no matter what happens in February the thirty yer rolling mean winter temperature wiull still increase this year.

For sure, this winter, this year, may come in cold by recent standards, but what we'll never know is whether the same set of drivers would have produced something more or less cold thirty years ago. Tuesday's synoptic continues to look juicy for a number of reasons, not least because it reminds me very much of the sort of synoptics we got in 1978 and 1979, and as you suggest, this set up in 1979 would have had very little "marginal" about it. We shall see.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

The term 'even larger teapot' is a very irritating and superficial catch phrase to try a describe a cyclical period that has seen above average temps and less snowfall. Encapsulating the oft repeated 'things aint what they what they used to be and never will be again'

Despite a very embryonic couple of decades in 'real' climate history, those who cherish this belief, have undaunted faith that it will prevail interminably. By nature (excuse the ironic pun) of it supposedly continuing rampant and unchecked (a tide mark of colder temps never to be reached again, blah de blah etc etc) it could be easily incorporated as a 'bullet point' as part of a drum beating AGW mission statement presented at an AGM meeting.

Personally I think it is utter humbug, no surprises there then :lol:

Edited January 31, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Stratos Ferric]

The term 'even larger teapot' is a very irritating and superficial catch phrase to try a describe a cyclical period that has seen above average temps and less snowfall. Encapsulating the oft repeated 'things aint what they what they used to be and never will be again'

Despite a very embryonic couple of decades in 'real' climate history, those who cherish this belief, have undaunted faith that it will prevail interminably. By nature (excuse the ironic pun) of it supposedly continuing rampant and unchecked (a tide mark of colder temps never to be reached again, blah de blah etc etc) it could be easily incorporated as a 'bullet point' as part of a drum beating AGW mission statement presented at an AGM meeting.

Personally I think it is utter humbug, no surprises there then :lol:

Tamara, you think it's humbug because you like the snow. I like snow too, but I am also a slave to the facts. I would love to "keep the faith", but, alas, faith doesn't enter into it. The unprecedented run of annual - and particularly winter - warmth, may be distasteful, and inconvenient to you, but for all that you spend each and every winter on here hoping for something genuinely cold, and like many others in the model thread persistently looking east for any glimmer of hope, the real world in the UK persists in not returning a winter month sub 3C. With each passing year, what you would have as a "cyclical" event rather starts to appear, in fact, as something more persistent.

[Hot*Snow]

I am with you here stratos. I have been here 2 days now and have noticed how quickly people do get carried away with things. As an experienced forecaster I have seen these situations arise so many times and nothing come avail. It is always important to remain cautious. I would love it to snow, but I wont be getting excited until a couple of hours before the event starts and I can see the ppn on the radar.

As far as the even larger teapot is concerned - well yes there is evidence to suggest this. It is not a silly pessemistic term that someone has made up. Winters are'nt as cold as they used to be, and we dont get as much snow as we used too. Oh yeah and Britain is'nt a great place for snow anyway (unless you live in the Scottish mountains) and thats why it generates so much interest and thats why it causes so much chaos.

I am not anti-snow. I hope we get loads of the stuff but its important not to get carried away and people should be realistic in their expectations. Here's tosome good fun over the next few days.

Hot*Snow

[mackerel sky]

From my fantasy island even larger teapot perspective I find it difficult at times to get to grips with things.

I migrated from the North to the South about 12 years ago. The last time at close to sea level I was wading through 50cm level snow was in 1991, whilst listening to KLF on a walkman and doing my paper round in NE Yorkshire. Yet after that, surprisingly, I went to school as normal. On the nearby North York Moors you could double that and add the first number you thought of.

Perhaps these even larger teapot might have coincided with my subsequent gradual southern movement. But yet on several occassions it has snowed in November and indeed this year, late October. January, however always remains dissappointing. 4cm to report this month, but statisically it counts as 3 days of lying snow (which by definition I believe if > 50% of the ground covered at 9am?).

My expectations are much lower than they were as a kid in the 80s, but I didn't know any different back then.

I will pay £50 to the next NW member to coin a new phrase, and subsequently they must take responsibility on the off chance I will murder them.

[Hot*Snow]

I'm sure BBC weathers Danny Corbett would have no problem coining a new phrase! He comes out with some absolute crackers.

"Like a sponge soaking up some milk" I heard this week - explaining how cloud is preceded by clear conditions!

[WhiteXmas]

The 'even larger teapot' is still very much in evidence. Background warming increasing surface temperature, and making easterlies like Sunday more and more marginal. There will always be modified air temperature while the human race expands and continues to cover land in warmth conducting concrete.

Hi OP,

There may be some evidence of warming however it is as I have said before and noggin said in this thread; there are cycles of weather patterns. There will be a return to "old" winters as some may call it and like I said last year I think this year is the beginning of a new cycle. Whether this is actually true or not will be proven soon enough :lol:

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Tamara, you think it's humbug because you like the snow. I like snow too, but I am also a slave to the facts. I would love to "keep the faith", but, alas, faith doesn't enter into it. The unprecedented run of annual - and particularly winter - warmth, may be distasteful, and inconvenient to you, but for all that you spend each and every winter on here hoping for something genuinely cold, and like many others in the model thread persistently looking east for any glimmer of hope, the real world in the UK persists in not returning a winter month sub 3C. With each passing year, what you would have as a "cyclical" event rather starts to appear, in fact, as something more persistent.

:lol: Beensaid countless times but it has nothing to do with keeping the faith, hopecasting etc. The real world is not looking through a narrow lense of AGW and precariously rash persistence fcators.

Like many others, there was a time when I was reluctant to look at what may be going on, incase I found soemthing I didn't like to hear, but I can reach my own rational decisions with confidence. I don't buy into the AGW argument, it isn't costed properly, and is only a theory which folk like you present as fact that everyone is expected to accept. - I have recently given just a few examples on the climate threads, but I tend to steer clear of them if I can due to the circular debates, and the type of response that predictably comes like yours. With all that in mind, the above tags with which you associate people like myself are just repeated misrepresentations.

I don't expect you to agree, and am in all honesty totally ambivalent, as usual, whether you do or not. I 'll keep looking at the bigger picture, thanks, and keep an open mind. You can continue to be a slave to a theory :lol:

I would also suggest that putting a moving goalpost on a lowest benchmark CET on the basis that it will never be bridged is an extraordinarily rash thing to do - and exemplifies the sort of 'slavery' to which I would reflect back to you. Your ultimate sub 3 CET is on a borrowed time IMO, just as previous benchmarks presntented to 'hopecasters' like me on the basis of expecting to follow them without question.

[Solar Cycles]

:lol: Beensaid countless times but it has nothing to do with keeping the faith, hopecasting etc. The real world is not looking through a narrow lense of AGW and precariously rash persistence fcators.

Like many others, there was a time when I was reluctant to look at what may be going on, incase I found soemthing I didn't like to hear, but I can reach my own rational decisions with confidence. I don't buy into the AGW argument, it isn't costed properly, and is only a theory which folk like you present as fact that everyone is expected to accept. - I have recently given just a few examples on the climate threads, but I tend to steer clear of them if I can due to the circular debates, and the type of response that predictably comes like yours. With all that in mind, the above tags with which you associate people like myself are just repeated misrepresentations.

I don't expect you to agree, and am in all honesty totally ambivalent, as usual, whether you do or not. I 'll keep looking at the bigger picture, thanks, and keep an open mind. You can continue to be a slave to a theory

I would also suggest that putting a moving goalpost on a lowest benchmark CET on the basis that it will never be bridged is an extraordinarily rash thing to do - and exemplifies the sort of 'slavery' to which I would reflect back to you. Your ultimate sub 3 CET is on a borrowed time IMO, just as previous benchmarks presntented to 'hopecasters' like me on the basis of expecting to follow them without question.

:lol: :o :lol: :lol: Edited January 31, 2009 by Solar Cycles

[Mondy]

Trust the Global Warming proponents to come out in force when a bitter cold blast is on the way. They never can let go, can they? Always sticking little bits and pieces here and there spoiling the fun for the majority. Go back in your boxes AGW folks

[LadyPakal]

I would also suggest that putting a moving goalpost on a lowest benchmark CET on the basis that it will never be bridged is an extraordinarily rash thing to do - and exemplifies the sort of 'slavery' to which I would reflect back to you. Your ultimate sub 3 CET is on a borrowed time IMO, just as previous benchmarks presntented to 'hopecasters' like me on the basis of expecting to follow them without question.

Hmm, moving goalposts indeed - remember this post?

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...p;#entry1114378

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Hmm, moving goalposts indeed - remember this post?

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...p;#entry1114378

Hi Lady P

I do remember the context of the debate at the time, and it is certainly very interesting how the perspective has, shall we say, 'adjusted' over the last year or so.

Thanks for finding that.