The Curse Of The Modern Winter

[Stratos Ferric]

There is a touch of irony here, you were referring to cherry picking, what you neglect to mention was that was for a 76 day period, which ineffect is a 2 and a half month period.

Also 29th November - 10th January CET: 2.5

Which is a 6 week period and also in what is on average the milder half of the winter. Not in the "colder half" but the "milder half"

I agree no sub 3C month by the looks of it, however the point is weakened by the fact we have had a longer period of time that has gone sub 3C.

Certainly there's been a long cold run, but if we're going to massage the numbers we need to massage reference periods equally. So, if I were to go see 1979, or 1983, or 1986, I suspect it would be possible to find longer runs that span months that were even lower than the monthly values stated for those periods.

To use a silly analogy, say one liked cream but hated sponge, and one was presented with a Victoria sponge cake; there are a few on here who would skim the cream from the cake and then conveniently ignore the presence of all that sponge, before going on to claim a much higher ratio of cream to sponge than was actually the case.

Ignore the 3C line, you could draw it wherever you like, the plain fact is that the incidence of sustained cold, CONSISTENTLY below any given level, is now less than it used to be. The basic math dictates that this ought to be the case: you cannot increase an average, all other things being equal, and not touch the outher limits.

The other feature of the wintry weather this season has been it's patchiness. It certainly has been more than localised, but it hasn't been consistently extensive and significant.

[Snowly does it]

Ignore the 3C line, you could draw it wherever you like, the plain fact is that the incidence of sustained cold, CONSISTENTLY below any given level, is now less than it used to be. The basic math dictates that this ought to be the case: you cannot increase an average, all other things being equal, and not touch the outher limits.

However - in terms of consistent cold - this will now be the third season in a row below the 71-00 mean and the second below the 61-90 mean and the distance below mean is increasing. We are round about now below the 61-90 annual mean in running... where things go in Spring will be interesting - are we in Bull or Bear temperature market? Is the rise that follows this trough going to restore the plateau?

This winter has, without question and under any definition, seen sustained 'cool' - as has the last 9 months and the like....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

When I hear 'even larger teapot', I think of:

-

- Cold brought mostly in the form of inversion cold (a symptom itself of a northerly tracking jet), -

In this location, winter 2008/09 has fulfilled all of these.

Except that one of course!

Now this winter no matter what IMO has breached and knocked the stuffing out of 'even larger teapot' and lack of cold. The jet has been far more south than normal, the cold has occurred DESPITE no real northen blocking -ve AO/NAO.

Also the even larger teapot 'infers' that there is no going back and its manmade. Well Hello HALE CYCLE.

BFTP

[Stratos Ferric]

Negative but accurate.

What Steve is referring to is the actual synoptics rather than what snowfall we have seen this winter. Overall we may of seen quiet a few snow events but synoptically speaking this winter has been generally poor. There has only been two occasions when upper temps dropped below -10C and in both occasions this lasted around 24hrs.

My summary of this winter would be this.

1. Early Dec- cold NW,lys due to the jet running NW-SE.

2. Mid Dec-Xmas- mild.

3. Xmas-New Year- surface cold due to HP over the continent but a 24hrs spell of cold E,lys due to surface HP centred over Scotland.

4. Mild mid Jan-end Jan.

5. Early Feb- mid Feb-24hr E,ly followed by marginal snow events with upper temps only around -4C.

What this winter has been lacking is max temps remaining below 0C with the exception of the surface cold at xmas. The simple reason for this is the lack of N,ly blocking bringing very cold upper temps from the E/NE.

I joined this forum in Oct 04 and with Feb 05 being the exception I still wait for a decent cold spell synoptically speaking.

Good post Eye, very measured assessment. Os's challenge is a good one too, because it highlights the difference between outcomes and drivers: there is no firm causality in weather that says that 1+2 always leads to 3.

These threads always descend into mild farce. The usual suspects harping on about cold or mild, too often relying on hubris rather than data to continue trotting out partisan points of view. It may be unpopular to some people, but Steve's assessment is bang on, there is little if anything in the FACTS of this winter to suggest that we can ever again get sustained deep cold of the type that we used to get, occasionally, not so long ago.

Every year the same people come on carping on about keeping the faith; every year the last concrete image of sustained cold grows smaller in the rear view mirror.

If you don't hold that the climate is warming then it's possible to argue that cold winters will return; if you do then it's hard legitimately to hold that view.

However - in terms of consistent cold - this will now be the third season in a row below the 71-00 mean and the second below the 61-90 mean and the distance below mean is increasing. We are round about now below the 61-90 annual mean in running... where things go in Spring will be interesting - are we in Bull or Bear temperature market? Is the rise that follows this trough going to restore the plateau?

This winter has, without question and under any definition, seen sustained 'cool' - as has the last 9 months and the like....

There are indeed some very notable features in the pattern of temperature over the past few months, and who's to say that this pattern may not continue? Spring and summer will be interesting for sure - in fact there is always interest to be found somewhere in the numbers, that is part of the fascination that that the weather holds for some of us - as we start to encroach on some of last year's low values.

The difficulty that we will always face is not being able to play the same meteorological hand at a different table. Who's to say that twenty years ago the drivers we have this winter might not have yielded something more severe? We can never say. All we can look at is absolutes, and for all that this winter is relatively cold by recent comparison, and for sure has sutained general cold across the winter, it has NOT been as cold as benchmark winters of the past. For sure they didn't happen all the time, but when they did the events WERE colder, and whatever level you choose as the 'trap', they occurred more frequently. Facts is facts!

Edited February 16, 2009 by Stratos Ferric

[Snowly does it]

There are indeed some very notable features in the pattern of temperature over the past few months, and who's to say that this pattern may not continue? Spring and summer will be interesting for sure - in fact there is always interest to be found somewhere in the numbers, that is part of the fascination that that the weather holds for some of us - as we start to encroach on some of last year's low values.

The difficulty that we will always face is not being able to play the same meteorological hand at a different table. Who's to say that twenty years ago the drivers we have this winter might not have yielded something more severe? We can never say. All we can look at is absolutes, and for all that this winter is relatively cold by recent comparison, and for sure has sutained general cold across the winter, it has NOT been as cold as benchmark winters of the past. For sure they didn't happen all the time, but when they did the events WERE colder, and whatever level you choose as the 'trap', they occurred more frequently. Facts is facts!

Which is why I think 2 key things spring from this

1) The numbers - Spring, Summer, next winter, whenever. The question is where we go from this new (and personally welcome) colder winter and generally cooler run of temperatures - that is the first marker. The trend and direction may have a bearing on the 'is this as cold as it can get' question - I'd suggest regardless there will always be some room on the downside of a recent benchmark, but are we near the basement?

2) However, the other critcal factor in terms of switching back on the 'classics' is the synoptic question, Steve's original post if you like - can we get the synoptics?

If we can get some sort of evidence of 2) in the next 5 years, 1) would suggest that something below 95/96 and maybe 84/85 would be within theoretical reach. Without 2) I very much doubt you could get far below 08/09 - without sustained northern blocking 08/09 is pretty much as good as it gets I would think (barring a little room on the downside for ameliroated mild interludes in a similar patterned winter etc)

[Snowyowl9]

Coldest 12 winters of the last 39 odd years.

1...1978/79

2...1981/82

3...1985/86

4...1990/91

4...1995/96

6...1984/85

7...1969/70

8...1976/77

9...1986/87

10.1977/78

11.1996/97

12.2005/06

How high up that list will this winter end up.

Surprising how high 1995/96...1990/91 ended up really,thought 1984/85 would`ve been higher at 4th anyway.

Edited February 16, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[Shirelord]

- Delete please, wrong thread.

Edited February 17, 2009 by Shirelord

[mackerel sky]

This thread is quite interesting in so far as some members who have been on here a long time have finally thrown their toys out the pram and revealed their true feelings. Don't fall out properly though, because it makes for good reading.

I'm off now to exhume the body of my great-great-grandfather to see what comment he has on the mini-ice age of the mid 1700-1800s. Then you can all shut up once i've summoned him from his grave.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Moderately cold synoptics twenty/thirty years ago would have produced similar moderately cold weather. UK has always been a maritime changeable climate and I am old enough (ahem!) to remember these so called 'vintage years'.

We have just seen a reduced frequency of them which has led to the illusion that they aren't as productively cold as they used to be. But when you look at cyclical changes you can see why they have become less frequent and made recent years a little warmer. These changes have also resulted in the lack of severe cold weather synoptics at the most 'deliverable' times. But again, although the lack of deep upper cold spells is frustrating for the time period under consideration, the same principle applies and nothing more to try/want to read into it than that.As far as I am concerned anyway.

Changes in the PDO pattern and solar minimum are starting to very slowly make their mark - although it won't be for a few more years until these factors (as well as other factors no to go into and make the thread O/T) make their presence properly felt. So that means that this sort of debate no doubt will rumble on for a while yet with the usual predictable divisons of opinions on it.

The now probable lack of a sub 3 CET means nothing IMO this winter - the delivery of 3 winter months, below average and very close to that figure means far more than one month that goes below it. In my way of thinking, the fixation with the 3 CET is a bit like the way traders on the stock market babble on about 'pyschological barriers' on the FTSE 100 index It is all in the mind as far as I am concerned and is a figure imposed by some people that others are meant to follow as a factual benchmark of supposed change. And of course others are free not to have to attach the same ultra important significance to it as they do. Obviously the colder the better, for many of us, so whilst it would be 'nice' to have breeched this figure, it is hardly symbolic of anything earth shatteringly crucial that we haven't as yet.

When a 2 CET month arrives, it will equally mean little, other than to continue to keep alleged changes more in perspective with reality. Yes things have been a little warmer and have frustrated cold weather wishers for a while, but nothing more, nothing less.

It is quite conceivable that next winter will not follow this one, and in such circumstances the immediate reaction will be to proclaim this winter a 'one-off'. On the other hand it might repeat and go one better, and that will be seized on as evidence that change is coming. However, as per above, most likely I would suggest is that nothing conclusive will be gained for a few years before the real changes become apparent over the next 5 -10 years.

[matt44myst]

if the current trend continues, then at the very least one of the curses of 'the even larger teapot' will soon be gone and that, of course, is way above average sst's around these shores. I feel that part of our extensive snowfall this winter off, at times, fairly marginal synoptics is due to the average to slightly below temps we have been experiencing since the autumn around the uk. This, at least, is a small crumb of comfort. If only the Barents could show a similar cooldown we might start getting some seriously cold northerlies.

Matt

[mackerel sky]

We also have the problem that the Met Office will say, in a precursor to this winter that temperatures would be average, making it obviously much colder relative to the previous 5 years or so. Predicting average conditions is an easy thing to do, and I suspect they will continue to predict average conditions for the foreseeable future. Any slight glitches, extreme events (or mistakes resulting in the nowcasting of severe weather warnings) can simply be attributed to global warming and sold on to make stories for the Daily Express. They can't loose whichever way you look at it, because global warming has generated an excuse. Because anything slightly out of the ordinary must be due to it.

[high ground birmingham]

We also have the problem that the Met Office will say, in a precursor to this winter that temperatures would be average, making it obviously much colder relative to the previous 5 years or so. Predicting average conditions is an easy thing to do, and I suspect they will continue to predict average conditions for the foreseeable future. Any slight glitches, extreme events (or mistakes resulting in the nowcasting of severe weather warnings) can simply be attributed to global warming and sold on to make stories for the Daily Express. They can't loose whichever way you look at it, because global warming has generated an excuse. Because anything slightly out of the ordinary must be due to it.

Brilliant post...totally agree!!

No one chucked around the theory of global warming after the summer of 1976. Whereas despite some fierce flooding in the past, the floods of 2007 are attributed to global warming.

Global warming has definitely generated an excuse.

Regards, hgb

[bluearmy]

i think this is the third time this winter that the positioning of the azores high has prevented us receiving a cold spell. there is a propensity for blocking around greenland in a few days, courtesy of a ridge from the arctic - however the AH is like a limpet for our part of nw europe and the atlantic to our west/southwest. many have said this has been an old fashioned winter. take a look through the archive charts on those old fashioned winters and see where the ah sat for most of the time. when it did ridge into our part of the world it generally manged to move on to sit in a favourable poition to deliver cold and became part of a northern block. i think we kidded ourselves in december when it morphed into a midatlantic high to deliver a northwesterly airstream. it was still the AH. i recall that on one occasion it threw up a ridge which helped to bolster a scandi high - i will need to check back on that. if so, that was the only time it did 'the old fashioned thing'.

and yet for much of the winter, its seemed to be absent from the output. there must be some reason as to why it only appeared when a potential cold pattern was emerging - like a modern day globally warmed super hero to rescue us from frigid cold. it has been a cold winter, but xmas was inverted and jan zonally cold, due to the depth of cold down the eastern seaboard. only that first week of feb did we see a decent cold pattern which left us with a cold trough. and even then, the cold pool was rather small and could easily have missed us. despite the talk of a change in our winters, the nemesis of the even larger teapot - the height rise to our southwest, has done for us again.

[Lettucing Gutted]

i think we kidded ourselves in December when it morphed into a midatlantic high to deliver a northwesterly airstream. it was still the AH. i recall that on one occasion it threw up a ridge which helped to bolster a Scandi high - i will need to check back on that. if so, that was the only time it did 'the old fashioned thing'.

and yet for much of the winter, its seemed to be absent from the output. there must be some reason as to why it only appeared when a potential cold pattern was emerging - like a modern day globally warmed super hero to rescue us from frigid cold.

Since the Azores High is a deep warm pool perhaps its unusual persistence near our shores as cold patterns are emerging is due to heat being displaced from lower latitudes in the North Atlantic caused by the deep eastern seaboard cold spells?