The Curse Of The Modern Winter

[SMU]

Northants Snow-

You havent read the post then-

Nowhere has it mentioned that the Winter will be above average or am I forecasting total mild doom & gloom- Just the preponderance of weather from the East is reduced-

This December has been very cold because of Stagnent cold air at the surface & a mean height anomaly to the EAST/South east-

It has nothing to do with my thread-

[Schnee]

I believe we are going through a cycle similar to the 1920's and 30's. That period suddenly came to an end and this one will eventually.

Just a matter of time before the weather patterns change again.

[Polar Continental]

Depressing stuff Steve, though I have tentatively felt a more optimistic this winter, it’s not been half bad so far, (for a ‘even larger teapot’ god i hate that phrase) Anyway we’ve still got loads to go yet and you need cheering up. For Christmas 2008

from Santa

[Freezing-Point]

I believe we are going through a cycle similar to the 1920's and 30's. That period suddenly came to an end and this one will eventually.

Just a matter of time before the weather patterns change again.

I agree. We have always had a cyclic pattern to cold / snowy winters, its just this one is lasting a little longer that the pattern suggests.

Steve, can you answer.. (or anyone)

1. What has caused the cyclic pattern of the last 200 years, when CO2 / warming effects are really a recent event?

2. If there is a cause to this cycle, (and it cannot be GW) how can you be so sure the cycle not about to switch back, because PROBABILITY is telling me that it is, soon.

[0000]

Northants Snow-

You havent read the post then-

Nowhere has it mentioned that the Winter will be above average or am I forecasting total mild doom & gloom- Just the preponderance of weather from the East is reduced-

This December has been very cold because of Stagnent cold air at the surface & a mean height anomaly to the EAST/South east-

And in my area at least it has been proven that not all winter weather must come from the East,after the snow event that came from the NW last week it was followed on Saturday by snow from a southerly direction and I still have snow lying,forgive if I'm wrong but I took it as you're saying just don't expect the beastie from the East this year just more an average winter spots and all

[weather eater]

I agree. We have always had a cyclic pattern to cold / snowy winters, its just this one is lasting a little longer that the pattern suggests.

Steve, can you answer.. (or anyone)

1. What has caused the cyclic pattern of the last 200 years, when CO2 / warming effects are really a recent event?

2. If there is a cause to this cycle, (and it cannot be GW) how can you be so sure the cycle not about to switch back, because PROBABILITY is telling me that it is, soon.

I don’t want to get into a AGW discussion on this thread but how do know its not a combination of both, why does it have to be one or the other.

[ribster]

RIBSTER- I cant quite see where your coming from with your comments-

Look at the Net weather video-

I clearly said a cold december- especially start with the atlantic block, then downhill from there especially of the PAC JET & Stratosphere are poor- for the rest of the Winter-

They MAY have been edited out- I doubt it- but 100% those were my feelings-

S

Hi Steve, can you clear your inbox so I can pm you, I shan't reply in here mate.

[SMU]

Will do-

Although obviously legitimate comments can stay in the thread-

regards

Steve

[grab my graupel]

Folks can we try to stick to the original topic please

Thanks:)

[Paul]

RIBSTER- I cant quite see where your coming from with your comments-

Look at the Net weather video-

I clearly said a cold december- especially start with the atlantic block, then downhill from there especially of the PAC JET & Stratosphere are poor- for the rest of the Winter-

They MAY have been edited out- I doubt it- but 100% those were my feelings-

S

Definitely not edited - it's on the third video at about 28 minute when everyone was asked for their conclusions

For anyone who hasn't seen the videos, they're still available to view here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...iscussion;sess=

The third in the series will play automatically, but click the menu button and go to on demand to view the first 2..

[len]

Really steve come on take some lithium yes recent winters have trended towards mild and we only get breif hints at the synoptics of the past but that doesnt mean to say it cant change .............

I think what Steve illustrated so well was that even as all the other teleconnections altered the result was the same (mild)....except for the persistently cool stratosphere since the nineties. The Stratosphere seems to be the sole overweaning factor.

And if indeed this is cooler Stratosphere (which causes a more intense PV and a +AO) is caused by Ozone-depletion (See the paper I cited and others) then it might very well be unchangeable until Ozone recovers.

http://www.europhysicsnews.org/index.php?o...2/epn04302.html

Len

PS

The irony is (as these threads tend to get distracted by AGW debates) that CO2 was not the human agent of Europe's modern winters but CFCs

Edited December 15, 2008 by len

[weather eater]

then it might very well be unchangeable until Ozone recovers.

Len

If indeed it does in our life times, which seems unlikely to me. I think however len that we may have to consider that its a combination of factors rather than a single issue.

Edited December 15, 2008 by weather eater

[len]

I believe we are going through a cycle similar to the 1920's and 30's. That period suddenly came to an end and this one will eventually.

Just a matter of time before the weather patterns change again.

But how much time? That is the question Stelmer.

The climate record doesn't show cycles, so much as chaotic random changes, some slow some rapid.

These warm winters will probably end one year. It could be next month, but it could also be a 100 or a 1000 years.

"After cold will come warm; after warm will come cold" is a truism that gives us little to no information.

Len

[Snowyowl9]

These were certainly cursed even larger teapot months. I don`t want to see again.

December 1988... 7.5 cet

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119881228.gif

January 2007...7.0

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120070115.gif

[Thundery wintry showers]

Most of the research I've seen suggests that the changes are probably partly a result of the rise in global temperatures and in particular SSTs, but that the warming doesn't explain all of the changes- suggesting that there may be natural cyclical variability adding to it.

[SMU]

Definitely not edited - it's on the third video at about 28 minute when everyone was asked for their conclusions

For anyone who hasn't seen the videos, they're still available to view here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...iscussion;sess=

The third in the series will play automatically, but click the menu button and go to on demand to view the first 2..

Cheers Paul- 29:30-

Below average december - After than average to slightly above based on the pattern & influence of the stratosphere being inline with recent years-

S

[IanS]

Steve great post. Very informative and clearly stated.

You could write it up as a scientific paper mate....

OK back to lurking

[davehsug]

Cheers Paul- 29:30-

Below average december - After than average to slightly above based on the pattern & influence of the stratosphere being inline with recent years-

S

As I understand it though Steve, there has been no significant cooling of the stratosphere these past few weeks, & if I paraphrase some other posters, this leaves the window for colder conditions open until mid-January & counting.

I admired your piece immensely. It was well thought out, reasoned & well presented. Congratulations.

Dave

[johnholmes]

I think what Steve illustrated so well was that even as all the other teleconnections altered the result was the same (mild)....except for the persistently cool stratosphere since the nineties. The Stratosphere seems to be the sole overweaning factor.

And if indeed this is cooler Stratosphere (which causes a more intense PV and a +AO) is caused by Ozone-depletion (See the paper I cited and others) then it might very well be unchangeable until Ozone recovers.

http://www.europhysicsnews.org/index.php?o...2/epn04302.html

Len

PS

The irony is (as these threads tend to get distracted by AGW debates) that CO2 was not the human agent of Europe's modern winters but CFCs

the paper quoted by Len is well worth reading, have read it a couple of times but still not absolutely sure I understand it all, like I said worth reading and worthy of a separate thread paerhaps, except it might, once again, be a pro - anti GW thread!?

[Weather-history]

that is even more interesting there Kevin, have tyou got the link for the 30's comments please?

I posted that article in the climate change forum

It was noted in 1938, that the Arctic had warmed notably over the last 40 years and the reason for this warming was blamed on an increase in the westerly flow with a stronger and deeper Aleutian and Icelandic low and a stronger subtropical high belt. As a result, northerly blocking became harder to become established.

Spitsbergen was 16F higher for the winters of 1931 to 1935 than it was for the winters of 1911-20. It turned out that the Gulf Stream was warmer by 0.75F from 1926 to 1933 than from 1912 to 1918. Also the English Channel saw a similiar rise.

In January 1938, Novaya Zemlya was 20F above the normal thanks to strong SWly winds being carried well into the Arctic region. This carried onto well into March 1938. Spitsbergen was 10F above the norm for February and 13.6F for March.

Why this should suddenly change in 1939-40 is a very important question.

[Steve Edgefield]

Very interesting and informative read Steve - as always! Didn't understand all of it but the stratospheric temperature anomalies clearly stand out as one of the key drivers, perhaps...Having been teased as we entered this winter I was more hopeful that we may be on the verge of a change to the recent cycle which, as one who remembers those 80's easterlies well, felt reassuring..However, my hopes are fading fast with the recent NWP output which looks horribly familiar as we come to the end of December and enter January. Certainly looks like some of that cold will be heading into Greece & Turkey over the next week or so.

I do hope that the kind of winters we remember are not gone for the rest of our lifetime.

[Spanner]

To give you an example of my desire for an E,ly with sub -15C upper temps I shall tell you what I would do if one was showing at +144. After viewing the 18Z I would try and get some sleep although I would struggle to fall asleep as my mind would be on the 0Zs. I would set the alarm for 3.45am, make a cup of coffee and switch my computer on. If the 0Zs continue with the E,ly I would return to bed for a few hrs before the 06Z GFS run come out. I would repeat this pattern right up until the actual arrival of the E,lys. Once those snow showers arrived I would probably be awake all night watching the radar and looking outside at the lamppost. During the day I would spend many hrs watching the forecasts from the BBC and I would especially enjoy reading the teletext forecasts saying "prolonged periods of snow with max temps of -5C".

Forgot to add that by day 5 I would probably miss all the snow because I would be suffering from exhaustion.

I'm with you TEITS. I remember a winter which must have been late 70's or early 80's (I must have been about 12 - 14 years old) when we had so much snow I could build an Igloo at the top of my dads drive and I spent most of the next week living in there!! My wife thinks I'm crazy getting out of bed in the middle of the night to see if I can spot the snowflakes in the street lights glow just on the slight mention of snow in a forecast.

It will truly be a sad loss to the young people of today who have no real knowledge of such weather if the 'even larger teapot' really means the demise of prolonged cold and snowy weather. There's just something magical and beautiful about snowfall that I know many on here also feel. Here's hoping that some statistical/meteoroligical anomoly can still throw up such an event, however unlikely!

[PersianPaladin]

I have doubts about whether CFC's still have any notable role in stratospheric cooling as they were a relativley late addition to the portfolio of anthropogenic influences on the atmosphere. There is a much longer legacy of greenhouse gas input; and naturally this has taken its time to work its way through the system and manifest itself in the form of surplus energy at lower atmospheric levels; and compensatory cooling at higher levels.

Take a look at this for example: -

Greenhouse gases also cause stratospheric cooling

However, this recovery of the ozone layer is being delayed. A significant portion of the observed stratospheric cooling is also due to human-emitted greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane. Climate models predict that if greenhouse gases are to blame for heating at the surface, compensating cooling must occur in the upper atmosphere. We need only look as far as our sister planet, Venus, to see the truth of this theory. Venus's atmosphere is 96.5% carbon dioxide, which has triggered a run-away greenhouse effect of truly hellish proportions. The average surface temperature on Venus is a very toasty 894 �F! However, Venus's upper atmosphere is a startling 4-5 times colder than Earth's upper atmosphere. The explanation of this greenhouse gas-caused surface heating and upper air cooling is not simple, but good discussions can be found at Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and realclimate.org for those unafraid of radiative transfer theory. One way to think about the problem is that the amount of infrared heat energy radiated out to space by a planet is roughly equal to the amount of solar energy it receives from the sun. If the surface atmosphere warms, there must be compensating cooling elsewhere in the atmosphere in order to keep the amount of heat given off by the planet the same. As emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise, their cooling effect on the stratosphere will increase. This will make recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer much slower.

http://www.wunderground.com/education/strato_cooling.asp

Edited December 16, 2008 by PersianPaladin

[johnholmes]

nothing changes in my view, and by that I mean this.

Listen to one expert and you are convinced by their views, listen to another, and if you can keep an open mind, they too convince you the other way.

I suspect, somewhere between the two theories is the truth but I have no way of, in turn, proving that!

hope that makes sense.

In the mid/late 80's, working in the Met office I was priveleged to hear both sides of the argument then going on, from experts in their respective fileds, the earth is on the edge of a warming not seen for millions of years V some parts of the globe are on the edge of the next Ice Age.

Both sides were equally convincing to me although the official stance took up the GW idea.

[TEITS]

I'm with you TEITS. I remember a winter which must have been late 70's or early 80's (I must have been about 12 - 14 years old) when we had so much snow I could build an Igloo at the top of my dads drive and I spent most of the next week living in there!! My wife thinks I'm crazy getting out of bed in the middle of the night to see if I can spot the snowflakes in the street lights glow just on the slight mention of snow in a forecast.

It will truly be a sad loss to the young people of today who have no real knowledge of such weather if the 'even larger teapot' really means the demise of prolonged cold and snowy weather. There's just something magical and beautiful about snowfall that I know many on here also feel. Here's hoping that some statistical/meteoroligical anomoly can still throw up such an event, however unlikely!

My family still think im mad when a cold spell is on its way. I used to drive my brother insane when I shared a bedroom with him.

I don't mean to be rude but I honestly believe some of the posts on this thread are a knee jerk reaction to the current model output. I know Steve is referrring to the last time a cold upper pool of air hit these shores but ultimately the discussion is why the synoptic patterns have changed. However what some seem to be ignoring is I proved with a chart from Feb 05 that these synoptics actually occured only 3yrs ago!!