January CET

[kippure]

3.2c

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Average temp here up to the 6th is -1.6C.

[Nick L]

My punt at 2.7c might not be far off the mark then

[Snowyowl9]

Average mean here 1st to 7th is -4.5c.

I actually make it 12c colder than the first week of January 1997.

Edited January 7, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[Kentish Man]

Hadley is on -0.7C today (Jan 1 - 7). That must be one of the coldest first weeks for a while.

[eddie]

Hadley is on -0.7C today (Jan 1 - 7). That must be one of the coldest first weeks for a while.

It's the 22nd coldest first week to January since 1772 and the coldest start to January since 1997 (1st to 7th Jan 1997 was -0.8C).

In fact the first week of January 1963 was warmer than the first week of January 2009. I certainly didn't expect to be writing that a month ago.

Edited January 8, 2009 by eddie

[Snowyowl9]

This must be colder than the first week of 1997 at 5.2c below average.!!!!

http://www.climate-uk.com/index.html

About 3c lower to 1997 for today for here a catch up.

[cheeky_monkey]

It's the 22nd coldest first week to January since 1772 and the coldest start to January since 1997 (1st to 7th Jan 1997 was -0.8C).

In fact the first week of January 1963 was warmer than the first week of January 2009. I certainly didn't expect to be writing that a month ago.

one week dosnt maketh a month..i guarantee this jan will end up warmer 1963..and most probably 1997

[eddie]

one week dosnt maketh a month..i guarantee this jan will end up warmer 1963..and most probably 1997

Clearly January 2009 isn't going to end up colder than Jan 1963 and that wasn't what I was trying to suggest either. However, this has been a proper cold spell whatever baseline you measure it against.

[Dave J]

Mean temperature for the first 7 days of the month at home in Suffolk was -1.1C! :wacko:

[Weather-history]

Assuming December 2008 had a CET of 3.8

29th November - 6th January CET: 2.96 (-1.5) (39 days)

So we are going to have a 40 day period that is going to be sub 3C!

29th November - 7th January CET: 2.85 (-1.65) (40 days)

[Snowyowl9]

one week dosnt maketh a month..i guarantee this jan will end up warmer 1963..and most probably 1997

But January 1997 is a good baseline which was infact the coldest since 1987.

There was a much milder spell then at around the same time whats coming now, good month to compare with my temps.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119970112.gif

Edited January 8, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[Typhoon John]

It's the 22nd coldest first week to January since 1772 and the coldest start to January since 1997 (1st to 7th Jan 1997 was -0.8C).

In fact the first week of January 1963 was warmer than the first week of January 2009. I certainly didn't expect to be writing that a month ago.

Of course the 2009 figures are provisional and the 1997 figures are final. Recently we have seen consistent downward corrections to the cold temperatures. Assuming the latest cold spell follows that pattern then imo 2009 should end up with a colder first week than 1997.

[Stu_London]

Update to the 8th

Hadley -0.3C

Manley -0.6C

[Optimus Prime]

Looks like the period 9th-15th will average 3.9c. 0.4c below the average for the first half of January but with some high minima. Looks like the average for the first half of January will be 1.7c, 2.5c below average.

Compare this to recent years's first half of January

2007 8.1c (+3.8c)

2006 4.6 (+0.3c)

2005 7.2c (+2.9c)

2004 5.8c (+1.5c)

2003 2.8c (-1.5c)

2002 3.0c (-1.3c)

2001 4.0c (-0.3c)

2000 5.2c (+0.9c)

1999 5.5c (+1.2c)

1998 7.0c (+2.7c)

1997 1.0c (-3.3c)

1996 6.9c (+2.6c)

1997 and 2003 being the only really cold ones there.

[Stratos Ferric]

But January 1997 is a good baseline which was infact the coldest since 1987.

There was a much milder spell then at around the same time whats coming now, good month to compare with my temps.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119970112.gif

For that reason anyone arguing strongly agaist GW, and using the present cold to do so, needs to hope that this month comes in colder than Jan 97 - there's a chance, but right now I wouldn't lay money on it.

[Eugene]

So we are going to have a 40 day period that is going to be sub 3C!

Yes and still some aren't happy with this winter i think they would still be moaning even in 1962/63 winter the 850`s weren't always that cold and temps were around 0C on some days.

Ian browns forecasts looks a complete bust already, i would bin it if i was him no way will this January be record breakingly mild its just not possible with the incredibly cold start.

[Weather-history]

For Manley

1st December - 9th January CET: 2.7 (-2.2)

[Weather-history]

Assuming December 2008 had a CET of 3.8

29th November - 6th January CET: 2.96 (-1.5) (39 days)

So we are going to have a 40 day period that is going to be sub 3C!

Since December 2008 turned out as 3.5

29th November - 8th January CET: 2.6 (-2.1) (41 days)

If you go back to the 22nd of November as that is the starting date when the cold weather began to dominate the UK.

22nd November - 8th January CET: 2.9 (not sure of the anomaly) (48 days)

Edited January 10, 2009 by Mr_Data

[The PIT]

Since December 2008 turned out as 3.5

29th November - 8th January CET: 2.6 (-2.1) (41 days)

If you go back to the 22nd of November as that is the starting date when the cold weather began to dominate the UK.

22nd November - 8th January CET: 2.9 (not sure of the anomaly) (48 days)

Which is impressive really considering recent years.

[Snowly does it]

Hadley -0.2 to the 9th, slight rise from yesterday. Looks like today should see it decline but I would suggest we will be back into positive territory by the 12th update - possibly after the 11th updates as it will need to record perhaps 4 degrees to get us there from where we will be and this seems probable despite an early frost in the South.

I am going to assume parity (0 exactly) at the update for the 11th leaving 20 days until the end of Jan, therefore to record the following, the average for the rest of the month will need to be.....

1.0 - average 1.5

2.0 - average 3.1

3.0 - average 4.7

4.0 - average 6.2

5.0 - average 7.8

6.0 - average 9.3

average conditions to end Jan would end us up on 2.7

I suggest 2 at the low end and no higher than 5 from here

Out of interest has anyone worked out the average for the 12 days of Christmas? (25 Dec - 6 Jan in case anyone didn't know, lol)

[Stratos Ferric]

Hadley -0.2 to the 9th, slight rise from yesterday. Looks like today should see it decline but I would suggest we will be back into positive territory by the 12th update - possibly after the 11th updates as it will need to record perhaps 4 degrees to get us there from where we will be and this seems probable despite an early frost in the South.

I am going to assume parity (0 exactly) at the update for the 11th leaving 20 days until the end of Jan, therefore to record the following, the average for the rest of the month will need to be.....

1.0 - average 1.5

2.0 - average 3.1

3.0 - average 4.7

4.0 - average 6.2

5.0 - average 7.8

6.0 - average 9.3

average conditions to end Jan would end us up on 2.7

I suggest 2 at the low end and no higher than 5 from here

Out of interest has anyone worked out the average for the 12 days of Christmas? (25 Dec - 6 Jan in case anyone didn't know, lol)

Short of a remarkable turnaround there's absolutely no chance of us coming in sub 2. Four or five mild days would put us halfway to that point, and given that there's nothing particularly cold in the immediate outlook, nor is there any obvious sign of potential at present, it would be unlikely that the remainder of the days would not contribute comfortably enough for us to get well past 2C, almost certainly past the 2.5C mark (Jan '97), and I expect nudging 3.0C by the end of the month, if not above. My tracking at present is suggesting about 3.2C for the month's end, and comparing outturn with projection over the last few weeks the final outcome for any given day is almost always in the top half of the projections for the previous 14 days, and on more than half of the occasions actually the highest (least cold) outcome. Having said that. I certainly don't see 4C being breached. Realistic landing from here for me is 2.5C-3.5C.

Edited January 10, 2009 by Stratos Ferric

[Optimus Prime]

Wow Strattos, you're surprassing yourself predicting the rest of the month before we've evn come close to the first half. It wouldn't take a remarkable turnaround to get below 2.0c considering where we're at, January 1979 had many westerly spells yet still ended up below freezing.

Anything between 1.0c and 5.5c is polssible from here.

[Snowyowl9]

For that reason anyone arguing strongly agaist GW, and using the present cold to do so, needs to hope that this month comes in colder than Jan 97 - there's a chance, but right now I wouldn't lay money on it.

4.5c below 1997 here now including last nights min todays max would`nt make any difference either.

I`m quite surprised January 1996 ended up so high at 4.3c with a very cold spell at the end,as January 2006 came in exactly the same.

Pattern could well change for the colder probably later this month seems to be whats happening this year.

If this slack spell would of continued as it did a sub 0c wouldn`t of been out of the question, with surface cold persisting from the SE,but never mind the atlantic wants a piece of the action.

Edited January 10, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[Stratos Ferric]

...If this slack spell would of continued as it did a sub 0c wouldn`t of been out of the question, ...

A slack spell is never going to last a full month; that's why the genuinely cold periods in the past were remarkable; they sustained a synoptic that fed deep cold for a long period. Nowadays there's just too much power in the PFJ it seems. When we do get cold as often as not it's brought about by an island HP close to our E (or overhead) in an eddy from the split flow. The sustained cold of yesteryear, when it happened, was either driven by greater instability in the jet (more blocking further N&E) or a more southerly flow (e.g. 1978, 1979).

In the meantime all the "if's, but's and maybe's in the world make no difference to what the outcome actually is.