January CET

[kold weather]

It does look like a quite strong warm-up event will occur mid month as the Atlantic comes powering back and I suspect there will be nothing to break that pattern either once it develops as we've seen in previous winters recently. So it becomes a question of whether the first 10 days are cold enough to drag the mean down and stop it from rising to severely.

It does seem at least possible however we could get the coldest first 10 days of Jan since 1979 which is impressive...

[Snowyowl9]

It`s a repeating pattern to the last 3 months except october,december had colder starts,this month looks colder still first 10 days anyway this HP will be stubborn,this looks to test that first week 10 days of 1997 aswell,especially where freezing fog is.

Edited January 3, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[Cold in Cromarty]

A pure guess - I think that January will be disappointingly anticyclonic with HP sometime in the "wrong place" for any really cold weather - it seems to be slipping south all the time - a tendancy to be continued. My guess is 2.9C.

[ukmoose]

I have updated the list.

I confess to being a little surprised by the number of entries on New Year's Eve (and later!) Penalty points apply to late entries (10 points each day I think).

129 entries in total: 9 sub zero entries

52 zero to 2.9

56 3 to 4.2

12 over 4.2

My guess now would be the threes to four point twos have it.

59 1.6-C: Timbo

16 1.5-C: TEITS

55 1.3-C: paul tall

56 1.0-C: SNOW-HEATWAVE-YES

20 0.6-C: Snowstorm1

92 0.4-C: Roger J Smith

57 0.3-C: suffolkboy

159 0.3-C: Polar Continental Late entry 10 P Pts

17 0.1-C: trickydicky

11 0C: wellington boot

29 0C: Snowmad79

62 0C: BUSHY

160 0.3C: tinybill Late entry 10 P Pts

60 0.5C: Matty M

150 0.5C: tundra Late entry 10 P Pts

4 0.9C: Pete Tattum

61 0.9C: stewfox

58 1.0C: dice48

33 1.3C:James M

137 1.3C: Seasons

162 1.6C: SLEETY Late entry 10 P Pts

12 1.7C: SNOWPLOUGH

132 1.7C: Summer blizzard

138 1.7C: Mr Maunder

30 1.8C: BARRY

88 1.8C: Devon-Nelly

5 1.9C: adamjones416

7 1.9C: snowingman

67 1.9C: Terminal Moraine

68 1.9C: Gavin P

87 1.9C: Polar Side

18 2.0C: Polar Gael

114 2.0C: AtlanticFlamethrower

152 2.0C: BLAST FROM THE PAST Late entry 10 P Pts

82 2.1C: casparjack

164 2.1C: Loraine Bennett Late entry 10 P Pts

15 2.2C: Cal

19 2.2C: memories of 63

105 2.2C: West is Best

154 2.2C: Steve Murr Late entry 10 P Pts

133 2.3C: fozi999

65 2.4C: snowsure

125 2.4C: cheshire snow

124 2.5C: artic fox

143 2.5C: davehsug

10 2.6C: tcc

70 2.6C: North Sea Snow Convection

79 2.6C: Stu London

151 2.6C: RUSS L.F.C. Late entry 10 P Pts

153 2.6C: Stormmad26 Late entry 10 P Pts

2 2.7C: nick2702

54 2.7C: stormchaser1

89 2.7C: Great Plum

117 2.7C: NaDamantaSam

39 2.8C: Norrance

96 2.8C: Glacier Point

38 2.9C: snowmaiden

43 2.9C: Potent Gust

86 2.9C: damianslaw

108 2.9C: eddie

178 2.9C: Cold in Cromarty Late entry 30 P Pts

36 3.0C: mike Meehan

44 3.0C: Bobd29

48 3.0C: Rollo

32 3.1C: themusicland

66 3.1C: Mr Data

93 3.1C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

128 3.1C: Paul B

129 3.1C: osmposm

3 3.2C: TOMB RAIDER LEGEND

13 3.2C: BarnetBlizzard

41 3.2C: swfc

74 3.2C: Don

115 3.2C: mountain shadow

113 3.2C: kold weather

119 3.2C: Stratos Ferric

123 3.2C: stricklands1984

163 3.2C: Jack Wales Late entry 10 P Pts

26 3.3C: V for Very Cold

42 3.3C: Calum

80 3.3C: Anti-Mild

84 3.3C: Snowyowl9

121 3.3C: LadyPakal

158 3.3C: Thundery Wintry Showers Late entry 10 P Pts

8 3.4C: pjb120

116 3.4C: mulzy

111 3.4C: phil n.warks

145 3.4C: Paul

103 3.5C: Megamoonflake

140 3.5C: Stargazer

141 3.5C: beng

157 3.5C: reef Late entry 10 P Pts

14 3.6C: The PIT

81 3.6C: SteveB

50 3.7C: derby4life

112 3.7C: Bottesford

130 3.7C: JACKONE

134 3.7C: mark bayley

139 3.7C: ned

136 3.8C: Kentish Man

149 3.8C: TomSE20

6 3.9C: JUST BEFORE DAWN

28 3.9C: The watcher watcher

91 3.9C: DR Hosking

127 3.9C: mk13

142 3.9C: Albion Snowman

146 3.9C: Mark H

51 4.0C: jimben

53 4.0C: shuggee

106 4.0C: JJB McCabe-deluxe edition

110 4.0C: IRON-BRU

126 4.0C: Tommyd1258

148 4.0C: acbrixton

76 4.1C: Timmead

131 4.1C: Timmy H

90 4.2C: sundog

95 4.2C: Nick F

35 4.4C: brassmonkeyman

107 4.4C: ukmoose

75 4.5C: Duncan McAlister

83 4.7C: chionomaniac

52 5.2C: The calm before the storm the Storm

47 5.3C: Summer of 95

25 5.5C: mark forster 630

77 5.7C: DAVID SNOW

45 5.8C: Supercell

46 5.9C: Optimus Prime

22 6.4C: Mike W

40 8.0C: Craig Evans

Please let me know of any errors, omissions or duplications.

[Kentish Man]

Thanks Moose for compiling that list which at 129 must contain a near record number of entries. Pershore in the CET zone fell to -7.5C last night so I reckon there will be planty of cold temps in the tank by the 10th which is a possible date for the first signs of the breakdown of the block from the NW. At the stage all punts are still on bar anything above 5.5C which I don't think will be possible to reach given the early month cold.

[Stratos Ferric]

It does look like a quite strong warm-up event will occur mid month as the Atlantic comes powering back and I suspect there will be nothing to break that pattern either once it develops as we've seen in previous winters recently. So it becomes a question of whether the first 10 days are cold enough to drag the mean down and stop it from rising to severely.

It does seem at least possible however we could get the coldest first 10 days of Jan since 1979 which is impressive...

It's already forced to be an interesting month for stats watchers. How long the cold endures for (sub zero mean), whether we can breach 3.0C on the downside, and if not, how big a recovery from a sub zero start can be staged.

The records for the longest sustained mean freezing or lower CET start to the year:

59 days - 1963; 19 - 1893; 17 - 1979; 11 - 1997. We're likely to beat the run for the even larger teapot, though at this moment it seems unlikely that we'll pass 1979's mark.

[Weather-history]

59 days - 1963; 19 - 1893; 17 - 1979; 11 - 1997. We're likely to beat the run for the even larger teapot, though at this moment it seems unlikely that we'll pass 1979's mark.

As for the modern winters of the 1920s and 1930s

Only 1928 had a sub zero start and January 1931 was 0.0 by the 8th other than that not even January 1929 dipped below 0C at any stage.

[Snowly does it]

It's already forced to be an interesting month for stats watchers. How long the cold endures for (sub zero mean), whether we can breach 3.0C on the downside, and if not, how big a recovery from a sub zero start can be staged.

The records for the longest sustained mean freezing or lower CET start to the year:

59 days - 1963; 19 - 1893; 17 - 1979; 11 - 1997. We're likely to beat the run for the even larger teapot, though at this moment it seems unlikely that we'll pass 1979's mark.

We'll struggle to beat anything given that the CET is currently above freezing at 0.2 - unless dipping back below counts?

[Stu_London]

CET to 2/1/09 - 0.2C

Sub zero run lasted - 1 day

[Snowyowl9]

CET to 2/1/09 - 0.2C

Sub zero run lasted - 1 day

It`ll be back below 0c by tommorrow and the next day.

[Stratos Ferric]

We'll struggle to beat anything given that the CET is currently above freezing at 0.2 - unless dipping back below counts?

I'm looking at running mean, not a run of consecutive sub zero days. The mean to yesterday was -3.2C; it's not going to reach 6,4C anywhere today, let alone as a daily average. The running mean may not go above 0 until next weekend at the earliest.

[Stu_London]

I'm looking at running mean, not a run of consecutive sub zero days. The mean to yesterday was -3.2C; it's not going to reach 6,4C anywhere today, let alone as a daily average. The running mean may not go above 0 until next weekend at the earliest.

The running mean is +0.2C (this is an anomoly of -3.3C)

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Get with the program SF

[Stratos Ferric]

The running mean is +0.2C (this is an anomoly of -3.3C)

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

Get with the program SF

Oops, apologies there. I was very ready to accept a cold day yesterday. Well there goes another bite at a cold sequence.

[summer blizzard]

While i realise i may lose net points despite this possibly being a closer prediction, i have gained access to all my data, and am RAISING my CET prediction to 5.2C, 1C above average.

[kold weather]

Mean now back below 0C again, at -0.1C, the slightly milder day in the south on Friday was what helped to raise the CET back up above freezing but it seems yesterday was another CET ice day despite temps of 5-6C in the far south.

Tuesday looks like the coldest day so far with the models progging some very cold mins/maxes, could well see an average around -3C much like the last day of December.

[Nick L]

While i realise i may lose net points despite this possibly being a closer prediction, i have gained access to all my data, and am RAISING my CET prediction to 5.2C, 1C above average.

Seems like a very, very tall order to reach 5.2c.

[Snowyowl9]

The CET zone is still below freezing at midday.

[kold weather]

Indeed 5.2C is a tall order if we take the idea that the first 10 days will be exceptionally cold, which seems likely to be the case.

An example of a month that did do it would be Jan 2002 which had a first 10 day average of 1.6C, the rest of the month averaged over 7C and ended up close to where SB current forecast suggests...

However this month looks like having an even colder first 10 days then Jan 02 therefore its looking like a very tall order and there is going to have to be some very mild conditions to reach there from where we will be by the 10th.

[Nick L]

Well going by the Met Office further outlook, it won't actually be that mild, more "less cold". They said although it will be milder than of late (which isn't difficult) it will still be close or slightly below average:

"Temperatures during the following week will probably be milder than of late, generally close to or slightly below the average for the time of year."

[West is Best]

Well there goes another bite at a cold sequence.

Only by an entirely arbitrary self-imposed (self-inflicted even) benchmark which has no support in metereological circles. Really SF you are excelling yourself at the moment. Every time you dig a new hole for those goal posts to go in you are sent scurrying away to dig some more. How about we set a new benchmark along the lines that until permafrost exists in Steeton the country isn't getting colder?

This is a bloomin' cold start to January. The mean is below freezing. We're in with a shout for the coldest start since January 1979, and another shout for the coldest first half of winter since 1981/2.

WOT NO COLD?

[kold weather]

Looks like today will be another Ice day in numerous parts of central England with many places still around 0C. This combined with mins widely below -4C suggests to me that today is very likely to see a mean around -2C, possibly a little lower depending the exact locations of the stations....

Looking very likely that the first 10 days will average below 0C now, which compared to recent years is a huge turn up!

Overnight min turns out to have been -3.6C, a little milder then I thought it would be but should still end up with a CET of between -1.5 to -2.0C

Edited January 4, 2009 by kold weather

[Nick H]

and another shout for the coldest first half of winter since 1981/2.

At the moment I'd say it is unlikely to be colder than the 1st half of winter 1996/7.

It would require a 1st half of January of around -1.0°C (I'm sure someone can be more exact). I can see Jan 1-10 coming in around -0.5°C and then possibly milder for the following 5 days.

Anyway, it makes a (pleasant) surprise that the coldest part of the country in the next week will be the central southern and far south east of England.

Edited January 4, 2009 by Nick H

[Stu_London]

The 12z today, should it verify would give us a CET of -1.1C to 12th January - I think it will be slightly higher then that, but should be well below zero still.

Should the 12z GFS verify then the following averages would be needed from the 13th January to achieve the following benchmarks

For a CET of 0C - 0.65C from 13/01/09

For a CET of 1C - 2.3C from 13/01/09

For a CET of 2C - 3.9C from 13/01/09

For a CET of 3C - 5.5C from 13/01/09

For a CET of 4C - 7.1C from 13/01/09

For a CET of 5C - 8.8C from 13/01/09

For a CET of 6C - 10.4C from 13/01/09

For a CET of 6.6C (2008) - 11.4C from 13/01/09

For a CET of 7C - 12.0C from 13/01/09

Good chance of a sub 3 gregorian month

Excellent chance of a sub 3 month (26/12/08-25/01/09)

[Stratos Ferric]

Only by an entirely arbitrary self-imposed (self-inflicted even) benchmark which has no support in metereological circles. Really SF you are excelling yourself at the moment. Every time you dig a new hole for those goal posts to go in you are sent scurrying away to dig some more. How about we set a new benchmark along the lines that until permafrost exists in Steeton the country isn't getting colder? :o

This is a bloomin' cold start to January. The mean is below freezing. We're in with a shout for the coldest start since January 1979, and another shout for the coldest first half of winter since 1981/2.

WOT NO COLD?

I think anyone who cares to read back to my previous posts can see quite clearly what I was referring to. If you care to show where exactly I have said it's not cold then fair enough.

[Stu_London]

CET - 01/01/09-04/01/09 -0.3C