January CET

[Joneseye]

Stick me down for 3.5 please.

[Kentish Man]

I hope you don't mind me if I post this here. I may have missed one or two off in this list

Cold first week to January (up to 7th) (sub 1.5C)

2002: 0.9

1997: -0.8

1986: 1.2

1985: 0.8

1979: -2.2

1971: -0.3

1970: -0.8

These are the ones falling within my living memory. 1971 followed on from the picture postcard 1970 White Christmas. 1979 had spectacular snow drifts in my area during that first week. The oddity is 2002 which despite being the most recent is the only one that registers a complete blank in my mind.

[Megamoonflake]

3.5 for me please

[ukmoose]

These are the ones falling within my living memory. 1971 followed on from the picture postcard 1970 White Christmas. 1979 had spectacular snow drifts in my area during that first week. The oddity is 2002 which despite being the most recent is the only one that registers a complete blank in my mind.

Interesting stats as always Mr D.

As to 2002, I think it was a rather strange month in many ways Nothing spectacularly cold at all if I recall correctly but several days hovering around freezing, some snow that threatened to be heavier but never quite made it, fairly cloudy and non-descript which is why it can't be recalled too easily i suspect. Could be wrong though!

I will try to update the list later.

[West is Best]

This is a very hard one because I can see it going two ways, but I'm going to keep the faith that the cold will hold. So:

2.2C for me please.

[JJB McCabe-deluxe edition]

I'm thinking mild 4C

[ukmoose]

It is hard to call, but judging by the latest trends, my guess would be for the cold to be shunted out of the way so I am going to revise my guess upwards to 4.4.

Just been reading through the model thread which looks gloomy - we need to remember it has been nearly 18 years since the last major wintry outbreak. That's a very long time. We have been very close on several occasions, including this one, but for various reasons, we never quite make it. We have to accept that things have changed and move on.

This frosty spell represents good value for recent winters though and a December at least below the average can't be all bad.

Updated list coming up.

[eddie]

2.9C for me please.

[ukmoose]

The latest January cet list:

59 1.6-C: Timbo

16 1.5-C: TEITS

55 1.3-C: paul tall

56 1.0-C: SNOW-HEATWAVE-YES

20 0.6-C: Snowstorm1

92 0.4-C: Roger J Smith

57 0.3-C: suffolkboy

17 0.1-C: trickydicky

11 0C: wellington boot

29 0C: Snowmad79

62 0C: BUSHY

60 0.5C: Matty M

4 0.9C: Pete Tattum

61 0.9C: stewfox

58 1.0C: dice48

33 1.3C:James M

12 1.7C: SNOWPLOUGH

30 1.8C: BARRY

88 1.8C: Devon-Nelly

5 1.9C: adamjones416

7 1.9C:snowingman

67 1.9C: Terminal Moraine

68 1.9C: Gavin P

87 1.9C: Polar Side

18 2.0C: Polar Gael

82 2.1C: casparjack

15 2.2C: Cal

19 2.2C: memories of 63

105 2.2C: West is Best

65 2.4C: snowsure

10 2.6C: tcc

70 2.6C: North Sea Snow Convection

79 2.6C: Stu London

2 2.7C: nick2702

54 2.7C: stormchaser1

89 2.7C: Great Plum

39 2.8C: Norrance

96 2.8C: Glacier Point

38 2.9C: snowmaiden

43 2.9C: Potent Gust

86 2.9C: damianslaw

108 2.9C: eddie

36 3.0C: mike Meehan

44 3.0C: Bobd29

48 3.0C: Rollo

32 3.1C: themusicland

66 3.1C: Mr Data

93 3.1C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

3 3.2C: TOMB RAIDER LEGEND

13 3.2C: BarnetBlizzard

41 3.2C: swfc

74 3.2C: Don

26 3.3C: V for Very Cold

42 3.3C: Calum

80 3.3C: Anti-Mild

84 3.3C: Snowyowl9

8 3.4C: pjb120

103 3.5C: Megamoonflake

14 3.6C: The PIT

81 3.6C: SteveB

50 3.7C: derby4life

6 3.9C: JUST BEFORE DAWN

28 3.9C: The watcher watcher

91 3.9C: DR Hosking

51 4.0C: jimben

53 4.0C: shuggee

106 4.0C: JJB McCabe-deluxe edition

76 4.1C: Timmead

90 4.2C: sundog

95 4.2C: Nick F

35 4.4C: brassmonkeyman

107 4.4C: ukmoose

75 4.5C: Duncan McAlister

83 4.7C: chionomaniac

52 5.2C: The calm before the storm

47 5.3C: Summer of 95

25 5.5C: mark forster 630

77 5.7C: DAVID SNOW

45 5.8C: Supercell

46 5.9C: Optimus Prime

22 6.4C: Mike W

40 8.0C: Craig Evans

[IRON-BRU]

4.0c please.

[phil nw.]

3.4C for me please.

[Bottesford]

3.7c for me please.

[kold weather]

3.2C for me I think. I've got a feeling the first 10 days will be exceptionally cold as I think the high will hold till at least then and if it does then there is a real chance we could get a prolonged period averaging below 0C, we shall see.

I suspect the Atlantic will come back quite hard though eventually...

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

2.0C

[mountain shadow]

3.2oC for me please.

[mulzy]

3.4 for me

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'll take a stab at 2.7C

[kold weather]

Looking likely to be the coldest start to Jan since 1997 which is quite decent as that has been the coldest start since Jan 1979, so to come 2nd would be impressive, even if somewhat meaningless stat!

Anyway first 7 days looks odds on to come in below 0C average, indeed I suspect given the GFS is probably being progressive in its outlook I suspect the first 10 days will also average below 0C.

[Stratos Ferric]

Potentially very cold start, thereafter the month hinges on whether all of the jet energy (or most of it) stays south. IF so, then kiss the shallow cold goodbye, and gear up for perhaps the best snowfest for a few years. All of that is a long way off though, and little more than speculation.

Temperature wise, perhaps a last hurrah for sub 3.0, though I can't see 2.0 being breached; all of that said, I doubt we could sustain what would be almost nine weeks of ubiquitous cold, therefore...

3.2C

[ukmoose]

The last update from me as I am off for a couple of days; will update on my return.

59 1.6-C: Timbo

16 1.5-C: TEITS

55 1.3-C: paul tall

56 1.0-C: SNOW-HEATWAVE-YES

20 0.6-C: Snowstorm1

92 0.4-C: Roger J Smith

57 0.3-C: suffolkboy

17 0.1-C: trickydicky

11 0C: wellington boot

29 0C: Snowmad79

62 0C: BUSHY

60 0.5C: Matty M

4 0.9C: Pete Tattum

61 0.9C: stewfox

58 1.0C: dice48

33 1.3C:James M

12 1.7C: SNOWPLOUGH

30 1.8C: BARRY

88 1.8C: Devon-Nelly

5 1.9C: adamjones416

7 1.9C: snowingman

67 1.9C: Terminal Moraine

68 1.9C: Gavin P

87 1.9C: Polar Side

18 2.0C: Polar Gael

114 2.0C: AtlanticFlamethrower

82 2.1C: casparjack

15 2.2C: Cal

19 2.2C: memories of 63

105 2.2C: West is Best

65 2.4C: snowsure

10 2.6C: tcc

70 2.6C: North Sea Snow Convection

79 2.6C: Stu London

2 2.7C: nick2702

54 2.7C: stormchaser1

89 2.7C: Great Plum

117 2.7C: NaDamantaSam

39 2.8C: Norrance

96 2.8C: Glacier Point

38 2.9C: snowmaiden

43 2.9C: Potent Gust

86 2.9C: damianslaw

108 2.9C: eddie

36 3.0C: mike Meehan

44 3.0C: Bobd29

48 3.0C: Rollo

32 3.1C: themusicland

66 3.1C: Mr Data

93 3.1C: RAIN RAIN RAIN

3 3.2C: TOMB RAIDER LEGEND

13 3.2C: BarnetBlizzard

41 3.2C: swfc

74 3.2C: Don

115 3.2C: mountain shadow

113 3.2C: kold weather

119 3.2C: Stratos Ferric

26 3.3C: V for Very Cold

42 3.3C: Calum

80 3.3C: Anti-Mild

84 3.3C: Snowyowl9

8 3.4C: pjb120

116 3.4C: mulzy

111 3.4C: phil n.warks

103 3.5C: Megamoonflake

14 3.6C: The PIT

81 3.6C: SteveB

50 3.7C: derby4life

112 3.7C: Bottesford

6 3.9C: JUST BEFORE DAWN

28 3.9C: The watcher watcher

91 3.9C: DR Hosking

51 4.0C: jimben

53 4.0C: shuggee

106 4.0C: JJB McCabe-deluxe edition

110 4.0C: IRON-BRU

76 4.1C: Timmead

90 4.2C: sundog

95 4.2C: Nick F

35 4.4C: brassmonkeyman

107 4.4C: ukmoose

75 4.5C: Duncan McAlister

83 4.7C: chionomaniac

52 5.2C: The calm before the storm

47 5.3C: Summer of 95

25 5.5C: mark forster 630

77 5.7C: DAVID SNOW

45 5.8C: Supercell

46 5.9C: Optimus Prime

22 6.4C: Mike W

40 8.0C: Craig Evans

Happy New Year!

[LadyPakal]

I'll plump for 3.3. Good luck everyone!

[Duncan McAlister]

If the high sticks around it's quite possible we could have a sub-3C average for the 40 days from 1 Dec to Jan 10, or maybe even the first half of winter. At least the first 4 or 5 days of Jan look to be negative territory.

Maybe one for Mr. Data?

Edited December 31, 2008 by Duncan McAlister

[stricklands1984]

I will go for 3.2 please. Happy new year!

[artic fox]

2.5 for me please.

[cheshire snow]

My very first go at this so 2.4 for me Please

Happy new year Everyone...Hope its a Snowy One