January CET

[Optimus Prime]

Wales is 6.0c below average! upto the 5th (rounded up) according to Philip Eden. Most of England around 3.5-4.5 below normal. Highest N.Scotland, only 1.9c below average. I suspect today with average aorund -2.8c, should have it standing around -0.8c by tomorrow.

Edited January 6, 2009 by Optimus Prime

[reef]

I suspect many far eastern areas are only 2-3C below average due to the unrelenting cloud cover.

Here we've a mean of 1.7C (-2.5C), though the mean min is only 1C below average.

Edited January 6, 2009 by reef

[Mondy]

You have to laugh

25 September 2008

The Met Office forecast for the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. It is also likely that the coming winter will be drier than last year.

:blush:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20080925.html

Hasn't been this cold, for so long, for years.

[Dave J]

Slight rise on Hadley to the 5th

CET 01/01/09-05/01/09 -0.2C

Goes to show that with such a low starting point, it needs to be really cold for falls to occur, although the 6th should see a fall.

They have last nights minimum as -5.6C, coldest CET night since 3 March 2006 (-5.9C).

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

You have to laugh

:blush:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres...pr20080925.html

Hasn't been this cold, for so long, for years.

If you know anything about the climate that forecast is a logical contradiction. Milder = wetter. Drier = colder. If you forecast everything you will get something right though whatever happens.

If you can be specific and right, that is what is impressive. Anything else, you're a quack.

Link

"The Met Office has some of the best weather and climate change science in the world. We can help British business achieve competitive advantage by being at the forefront of both climate change mitigation and adaptation."

Robert Napier, Met Office Chairman

"It is beyond dispute that the Met Office Hadley Centre occupies a position at the pinnacle of world climate science, and in translating that science into valuable policy advice."

MoD/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Review March 2007

Edited January 6, 2009 by AtlanticFlamethrower

[Nick H]

Wales is 6.0c below average! upto the 5th (rounded up) according to Philip Eden. Most of England around 3.5-4.5 below normal. Highest N.Scotland, only 1.9c below average. I suspect today with average aorund -2.8c, should have it standing around -0.8c by tomorrow.

The sunshine figures are odd...

He's got 127% in the main box but nowhere in his regional table is the sunshine anomaly so high.

Indeed, the Midlands shows 60%. You would have thought the Midlands would most approximate to CET-land, and that is the case for temp and rain.

It certainly has felt a very sunny, if cold, start. I would have expected the 103% figure for the south east to have been a bit higher if anything.

http://www.climate-uk.com/page2.html

Edited January 6, 2009 by Nick H

[Weather-history]

The sunshine figures are odd...

He's got 127% in the main box but nowhere in his regional table is the sunshine anomaly so high.

Indeed, the Midlands shows 60%. You would have thought the Midlands would most approximate to CET-land, and that is the case for temp and rain.

It is strange even though the sunshine figure is for England and Wales not just the CET area, it still doesn't explain why the % is high.

Edited January 6, 2009 by Mr_Data

[cheeky_monkey]

This will make Rich laugh wherever he is, it is -1 C at Calgary Alberta, milder than about 80% of the stations in England at the moment. :o

But that is considered a warm spell in Alberta.

c'mon thats naughty now :o ...you know as well as i do most of alberta has been hovering around -20c to -30c for the last couple of weeks..dont give the boys and girls a false sense of security.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

At 8am it would appear there was an air frost at every recording station in England.

Apart from the Scilly isles, St Marys got down to 1.6C and only got up to 2.9C, which must be really cold for there!

[The PIT]

Well our average just out the CET zone is 0.25C and it'll drop again tomorrow as well as this evening was very cold.

[TEITS]

I hope SF is taking note of the current temps especially after a recent discussion about the GFS over doing the min temps.

Fair number of locations recording -7C at 8pm with a couple of locations recording -10C. A temp of -10C at 8pm is incredible considering the upper temps are around -5C.

[Nick H]

I hope SF is taking note of the current temps especially after a recent discussion about the GFS over doing the min temps.

Fair number of locations recording -7C at 8pm with a couple of locations recording -10C. A temp of -10C at 8pm is incredible considering the upper temps are around -5C.

Benson had -10C at 7pm as well. We all know it's a frost hollow but it's still remarkable for southern England at that time of the evening.

[Snowyowl9]

I hope SF is taking note of the current temps especially after a recent discussion about the GFS over doing the min temps.

Fair number of locations recording -7C at 8pm with a couple of locations recording -10C. A temp of -10C at 8pm is incredible considering the upper temps are around -5C.

Upper air are even higher than that now at -4, <_< -10 at sennybridge,this was a late afternoon, like february 1991 for plumetting temps although didn`t reach the dizzy lows of that here.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rmgfs092.gif

-3.5c here at total cloud now.

[Stratos Ferric]

I hope SF is taking note of the current temps especially after a recent discussion about the GFS over doing the min temps.

Fair number of locations recording -7C at 8pm with a couple of locations recording -10C. A temp of -10C at 8pm is incredible considering the upper temps are around -5C.

It's a fair cop Eye, I have to say, and though GFS had four cold nights on the bounce (of which last night was the first), at this stage it would be churlish of me to suggest that that projection will not come good, or at least very close. In fact, if anything, GFS actually UNDERPLAYED the cold last night - and the way this evening is set tonight could well turn out colder, certainly in the S of CETland. The surface synoptic, despite a rampant jet not far to the north, continues to lock this air firmly in CET-land to at least the end of the week.

For those who didn't see them, here are those projections again...

[Stu_London]

From Philip's site (www.climate-uk.com)

CET 01.01.09-06.01.09 -1.0C

A drop of 0.6C on the 6th alone

Hadley still to update

Today will probably register another value just below -1.0C, thereafter we should start to see a rise, but slowly at first and we could still be in negative celcius terrority by 12th or 13th

[West is Best]

Today will probably register another value just below -1.0C, thereafter we should start to see a rise, but slowly at first and we could still be in negative celcius terrority by 12th or 13th

I'm not sure it's going to rise for a while. Sat night looks like another hard frost in the south.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley has just updated. -0.6C up to the 6th.

[Nick L]

Can't believe this, a week into January and we are still negative! No doubt the 2 days of milder temperatures will bump it up to some crazy number

[Optimus Prime]

Hadley has just updated. -0.6C up to the 6th.

Mean Max 2.1c, 4.2c below average

Mean Min (upto 7th) -3.7c, 4.5c below normal

Coldest first week since 1997 (-0.8c) only 1979 was significantly colder (-2.2c upto 7th)

[Thundersquall]

The CET is minus 0.36C at the moment, and I think was minus 0.11C either Monday or yesterday.

This is 4.56C below the CET average for Janauary.

When was the last time the first week of January had a negative CET? January 1987 perhaps

or even as far back as January 1982, as the 1987 cold didn't start I think until mid-January?

Edited January 7, 2009 by Thundersquall

[Stu_London]

The CET is minus 0.36C at the moment, and I think was minus 0.11C either Monday or yesterday.

This is 4.56C below the CET average for Janauary.

When was the last time the first week of January had a negative CET? January 1987 perhaps

or even as far back as January 1982, as the 1987 cold didn't start I think until mid-January?

1997 as per previous post

[Weather-history]

Assuming December 2008 had a CET of 3.8

29th November - 6th January CET: 2.96 (-1.5) (39 days)

So we are going to have a 40 day period that is going to be sub 3C!

[TEITS]

So we are going to have a 40 day period that is going to be sub 3C!

Now that is an interesting stat.

It will certainly be interesting if the Met O outlook suggesting cold zonality comes off. Obviously my punt of -1.5C is looking to high because cold zonality wouldn't bring very low mins. However a sub 2C month remains very possible IMO.

[Stu_London]

I would say

sub 5 - 98%

sub 4 - 70%

sub 3 - 45%

sub 2 - 15%

sub 1 - 5%

sub 0 - 2%

[kold weather]

Sub 3 is possible but it is probably going to need another cold spell from somewhere to make it even more possible.

Anyway looks likely that we shall have a sub-0C first 10 days to Jan. Tomorrow will likely be a touch milder thanks to higher mins but Saturday is looking a pretty cold day as well, quite probably be between -2 and -3C I'd imagine.

After that it does get a lot milder then we've become used to but despite a very mild flow aloft temps will take a while to really respond, so we likely will still get below average days for the 11-12th depsite a much milder flow coming in.

Beyond this point and its very hard to tell, does look zonality is going to come in but to what degree is somewhat uncertain...Cold zonality would still mean game on for a sub 3C...mild and we won't be that far from average if it sustains for long enough.

Probably best punt is between 2.5-3.5C right now but still too early to tell...