Snow Watch: London, Ea & Se England

[crazysnowcatz4]

The BBC forecast is as expected somewhat non descript as this event will be so hard to predict right down to the wire.

The GFS 18z model still shows snow turning to rain for the SE corner for Sunday through to Monday.

Unless you can be bothered to stay up all Sunday night / Monday morning on lamppost watch it is going to be a go to bed , hopefully wake up with the eary silence and slightly too light ambient light caused by thick laying snow as happened here 3 - 4 years back...

Put it this way .. I am getting the shovel and the broom in doors. No point them being in the shed if the snow gets above 4 inches as you won't be able to open the door to get them out!

[maidstone weather]

The BBC forecast is as expected somewhat non descript as this event will be so hard to predict right down to the wire.

The GFS 18z model still shows snow turning to rain for the SE corner for Sunday through to Monday.

Unless you can be bothered to stay up all Sunday night / Monday morning on lamppost watch it is going to be a go to bed , hopefully wake up with the eary silence and slightly too light ambient light caused by thick laying snow as happened here 3 - 4 years back...

Put it this way .. I am getting the shovel and the broom in doors. No point them being in the shed if the snow gets above 4 inches as you won't be able to open the door to get them out!

I have seen many a time where the GFS fails to predict marginal snow events - 23 Nov 2008? Heavy snow, the GFS said rain all the way through. It did manage to cotton-on about 6 hours before the event, but during the run up the GFS said rain, the BBC said snow. And it snowed.

[yamkin]

Just seen the 21:30 BBC forcast with Peter Gibbs and for Monday there was no mention of any mild sector or snow turning to rain? Infact he said more widespread and heavy snow will move into the SE and EA from France as the days wears on (Chart had the SE all white). Im now totally confused!!

Will we have rain or snow during monday?

Matt

We have been given a severe snow warning for late Sunday to Tuesday. Everyone is on standby and ready to deployed. Some are smiling because they have not seen this sort of weather for over 10 years.

PS...........Spare a thought for those in Southern Australia. The temp there is 44c

[crazysnowcatz4]

Too true , about the marginal events ,problem is it can get it wrong boths ways. In this occasion though if it is wrong it is likely to be on the side of more snow and less rain.

Although this is memory lane territory I really can remember my parents getting the shovels and brooms indoors before heavy snow and having to use them to dig the snow away from the doors and gates in order to open them, so it is genuine good advice to all.

Also if travelling keep 3 bits of old carpet and a blanket in your boot... one to kneel on if you have to change a tyre, 2 for the front / back tyres to get grip if you get stuck...and the blanket in case the carpet idea is rubbish.

[Paul Sherman]

Just nipped outside for a quick ciggie and that wind is really starting to gust now from the East, it is getting notably colder as well, the kind of Cold you can feel through your jeans etc.

Cold Pool and Freezing Uppers marching across the North Sea

[saint]

I think everyone should stay out the mod area now, just see what happens.

Interesting though dissagrement on what time the snow will arrive.

[angel]

hee hee Paul! I've just been out for a ciggie too! It sure is chilly!

I SO want it to snow just to shut my other half up! He's convinced its not gonna happen!!

Anita

[yamkin]

Just nipped outside for a quick ciggie and that wind is really starting to gust now from the East, it is getting notably colder as well, the kind of Cold you can feel through your jeans etc.

Cold Pool and Freezing Uppers marching across the North Sea

PS, this is going to a fascinating snowy period for all of us and I was dancing around the room when the latest info was sent not long ago. As JH and I have said so many times, the paying folk get info fed to them instantly.

Edited January 31, 2009 by yamkin

[Southender]

Lol

No-one is mentioning SE Essex, Might have to rip up the Weather books I have becuase I was always led to believe that anything East of North (Eg ENE) Wind would produce the goods for SE Essex, which is partly the reason I moved here, great views over the Estuary towards France for the Summer T-Storms and Snow from that rare and elusive Cold to our east, Steve has not mentioned us at all tonight so will have to see.

Just a point of Interest though

2003 - ENE Gave 8" (20cm) of Level Snow

1996 - ENE Gave 12" (30cm) of Level Snow

1991 - ENE Gave 15" (37.5cm) of level snow with 10ft Drifts whipped up by the biting Easterly Gale

1987 - ENE Gave 25" (63cm) of level Snow with 15-20ft Drifts

There are countless other ENE Events for this Region in my Weather Book with Snow Streamers that have delivered the goods so I am quietly confident, but no-one else seems to be for me

Paul S

I'm with you Paul.

Waxing the sledge ready for a trip down Belton Hills tomorrow night/Monday, as I'm not going to bother with C2C into Fenny, rush hour monday!!

All hail the Thames Streamer. We have the front row seat here mate!

[Paul Sherman]

I'm with you Paul.

Waxing the sledge ready for a trip down Belton Hills tomorrow night/Monday, as I'm not going to bother with C2C into Fenny, rush hour monday!!

All hail the Thames Streamer. We have the front row seat here mate!

Lol

I get the C2C Into Town as well, Well not Monday have already decided it will be too tricky to get the kids to school But suspiciously might be able to trek to some Hills around here, Two Tree Hill is pretty good as long as you dont go too fast and cross the road near Leigh Hill.

Paul S

[maidstone weather]

PS, this is going to a fascinating snowy period for all of us and I was dancing around the room when the latest info was sent not long ago. As JH and I have said so many times, the paying folk get info fed to them instantly.

What info did you get Yamkin (from where)?

[Paul Sherman]

hee hee Paul! I've just been out for a ciggie too! It sure is chilly!

I SO want it to snow just to shut my other half up! He's convinced its not gonna happen!!

Anita

Makes you want to give up this time of year Anita, esp as I have to go outside to light up

Dont have that problem when looking at a Supercell in me Cut Downs in May with a Bud in the other hand and Sunnies on. LOL

[kent]

I think everyone should stay out the mod area now, just see what happens.

Interesting though dissagrement on what time the snow will arrive.

Exactly Im trying to understand the latest synoptics and from a total selfish point of view also trying to determine what hope of seeing snowfall in my area of Bournemouth simply because the kids have never seen a real snowman, and instead of concentrating on here and now all they can do is post charts dragged from the other side of mars looking as far ahead in the future as sanity allows and argue about the possibility of snow fall then lol.

[donna-m]

I just got back in aswell after taking dogs for a walk,, i didn't think it was too bad out ...until i turned the corner, and got hit by a gust of wind ,, we soon turned around and headed home !!!

[angel]

Makes you want to give up this time of year Anita, esp as I have to go outside to light up

Dont have that problem when looking at a Supercell in me Cut Downs in May with a Bud in the other hand and Sunnies on. LOL

Now there's a mental image!

We're getting off topic here! Better mention snow before we get told off!

Whilst I have your attention though, what exactly is a Thames streamer and will it affect me?

[snow raven]

Exactly Im trying to understand the latest synoptics and from a total selfish point of view also trying to determine what hope of seeing snowfall in my area of Bournemouth simply because the kids have never seen a real snowman, and instead of concentrating on here and now all they can do is post charts dragged from the other side of mars looking as far ahead in the future as sanity allows and argue about the possibility of snow fall then lol.

Might be an idea to put your location in your profile - your user name could cause a bit of confusion!

[Southender]

Lol

I get the C2C Into Town as well, Well not Monday have already decided it will be too tricky to get the kids to school But suspiciously might be able to trek to some Hills around here, Two Tree Hill is pretty good as long as you dont go too fast and cross the road near Leigh Hill.

Paul S

Haha. Do you think C2C is going to come to a grinding halt Monday morning then? (wrong type of snow etc!)

Whats that stretch of hills near Chalkwell Stn called? They were always good back in the day, except for crashing into the fence at the bottom near the train line!

Infact scrap that, lets head to Southend and take on the cliffs opposite Westcliff Casino!!!

God, I hope we aint let down again mate!

We are due something special, we always miss out down here.

Fingers crossed the mild sector doesn't materialise...

[TEITS]

Lol

No-one is mentioning SE Essex, Might have to rip up the Weather books I have becuase I was always led to believe that anything East of North (Eg ENE) Wind would produce the goods for SE Essex, which is partly the reason I moved here, great views over the Estuary towards France for the Summer T-Storms and Snow from that rare and elusive Cold to our east, Steve has not mentioned us at all tonight so will have to see.

Just a point of Interest though

2003 - ENE Gave 8" (20cm) of Level Snow

1996 - ENE Gave 12" (30cm) of Level Snow

1991 - ENE Gave 15" (37.5cm) of level snow with 10ft Drifts whipped up by the biting Easterly Gale

1987 - ENE Gave 25" (63cm) of level Snow with 15-20ft Drifts

There are countless other ENE Events for this Region in my Weather Book with Snow Streamers that have delivered the goods so I am quietly confident, but no-one else seems to be for me

Paul S

Interesting you post those figures Paul because the map I posted which includes your region was based not just on the model output but previous experience. Infact I would say 25% model output, 75% experience. Looks like my 20cm was too conservative.

Heres a good example from Dec 2005.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120051227.gif

Our current cold spell suggests lower pressure, colder upper temps, stronger ENE,ly flow. However even that Dec 05 E,ly delivered 10cm of snow for my region. Back then I didn't really use the model output and used my knowledge of previous E,lys. The only difference with that is the flow was more from the N than E compared to tomorrows which is why my location isn't quiet as favoured as yours. Still im expecting some lying snow.

Edited January 31, 2009 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Paul Sherman]

Now there's a mental image!

We're getting off topic here! Better mention snow before we get told off!

Whilst I have your attention though, what exactly is a Thames streamer and will it affect me?

A Thames Snow Streamer is quite Fabled in the South East, and there are 2 types depending on a slight tweak in the Wind Direction, sometimes areas North of the Estaury and places near to the Southern Shores of the Thames right the way into London (Esp SE London) do very well as a Shower Train (Continous Heavy Showers one after the other) keeps dumping Snow over the same areas for a period of Time. These are formed offshore in the North Sea where the Sea (Being warmer than the Cold Pool above) Creates Convective Showers and pushes them SSW, They usually peter out somewhere to the W Of London, but this time with the Instability pushing ever Westwards tomorrow these should continue their journey MUCH Further West. The other type of Streamer mainly affects Kent and East Sussex, a famous one a few years ago gave Kent nearly 30cm of Snow whereas we got about 2cm. So all about the luck of the Draw with the Streamer but for us in Essex with need an ENE Wind. I am pretty certain quite a few locations will recieve Thundersnow Tomorrow at some point as the Clouds look to be getting between 13-16,000 feet from the Skew-T 's I have seen and Lapse Rates are pretty damn Impressive.

Paul S

Interesting you post those figures Paul because the map I posted which includes your region was based not just on the model output but previous experience. Infact I would say 25% model output, 75% experience. Looks like my 20cm was too conservative.

Heres a good example from Dec 2005.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120051227.gif

Our current cold spell suggests lower pressure, colder upper temps, stronger ENE,ly flow. However even that Dec 05 E,ly delivered 10cm of snow for my region. Back then I didn't really use the model output and used my knowledge of previous E,lys. The only difference with that is the flow was more from the N than E compared to tomorrows which is why my location isn't quiet as favoured as yours. Still im expecting some lying snow.

Is there no Chance of the Wash Streamer then Dave ?? Although your location will come into its own if the ECMWF Verifes the NNE Flow later on the week, then the Wash will be generating its own Lake Snow Effect :lol:

[yamkin]

What info did you get Yamkin (from where)? :lol:

Interesting info should be fed through by the MetO soon I would have thought. No wonder the MetO are not forecasting past Monday.

[angel]

A Thames Snow Streamer is quite Fabled in the South East, and there are 2 types depending on a slight tweak in the Wind Direction, sometimes areas North of the Estaury and places near to the Southern Shores of the Thames right the way into London (Esp SE London) do very well as a Shower Train (Continous Heavy Showers one after the other) keeps dumping Snow over the same areas for a period of Time. These are formed offshore in the North Sea where the Sea (Being warmer than the Cold Pool above) Creates Convective Showers and pushes them SSW, They usually peter out somewhere to the W Of London, but this time with the Instability pushing ever Westwards tomorrow these should continue their journey MUCH Further West. The other type of Streamer mainly affects Kent and East Sussex, a famous one a few years ago gave Kent nearly 30cm of Snow whereas we got about 2cm. So all about the luck of the Draw with the Streamer but for us in Essex with need an ENE Wind. I am pretty certain quite a few locations will recieve Thundersnow Tomorrow at some point as the Clouds look to be getting between 13-16,000 feet from the Skew-T 's I have seen and Lapse Rates are pretty damn Impressive.

Paul S

Thats a fantastic explanation!

Thanks for taking the time to expain it to me!

Anita

[SMU]

Lol

No-one is mentioning SE Essex, Might have to rip up the Weather books I have becuase I was always led to believe that anything East of North (Eg ENE) Wind would produce the goods for SE Essex, which is partly the reason I moved here, great views over the Estuary towards France for the Summer T-Storms and Snow from that rare and elusive Cold to our east, Steve has not mentioned us :lol: at all tonight so will have to see.

Just a point of Interest though

2003 - ENE Gave 8" (20cm) of Level Snow

1996 - ENE Gave 12" (30cm) of Level Snow

1991 - ENE Gave 15" (37.5cm) of level snow with 10ft Drifts whipped up by the biting Easterly Gale

1987 - ENE Gave 25" (63cm) of level Snow with 15-20ft Drifts

There are countless other ENE Events for this Region in my Weather Book with Snow Streamers that have delivered the goods so I am quietly confident, but no-one else seems to be for me

Paul S

I am confident that your area will do well- 5-10 cm widespread in the SE like I said earlier... maybe 15cm if soemone is very lucky-

Paul checkout the PPN for the SE on the icelandic charts from the ECM run- look very sparse early on-

Its round 2 thats got us guessing...

Im off to see if we have the 18z UKMO-

S

Edited January 31, 2009 by Steve Murr

[PB22]

New T+24 FAX chart: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif

That trough over the Low Countries will hopefully pep up the snow showers tomorrow night in the southeast.

[yamkin]

New T+24 FAX chart: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif

That trough over the Low Countries will hopefully pep up the snow showers tomorrow night in the southeast.

:lol: :lol: :wub: I'm referring to the chart PB just posted

[Helvellyn]

temperature dropping off fast here. currently 0.1!