Snow Watch: Cymru And South West England

[Bristawl Si]

highways agency weatherwatch for the south west

Tuesday evening and overnight:

Some hail, sleet or snow showers will last through the evening and overnight in parts of Hampshire and the southwest, particularly on roads close to English Channel coasts. Elsewhere, the night will be fine and dry, but with a widespread frost developing soon after dusk. Some mist and localised fog patches are expected towards the end of the night, when road users should allow a little extra time for defrosting vehicle windows completely.

Wednesday:

After a frosty start with localised mist and fog patches, the rest of the morning and early afternoon will be dry and bright. During the afternoon a band of rain will reach the southwest, and will spread slowly northwards and eastwards during the evening to reach the M4 by midnight. This rain will be preceded by snow, which will give further small accumulations on roads such as the A303 and the M3 by late evening.

Last updated on Tuesday 3rd February 2009 at 4 PM.

Richard Angwin, just now on BBC Points West, said a chance of heavy snow for Bristol area Wednesday night/thursday early hours, as a front pushes up from south west, but wasn't totally confident this will happen.

BBC news24 just now predicted same

[BristolBlizzard]

Richard Angwin, just now on BBC Points West, said a chance of heavy snow for Bristol area Wednesday night/thursday early hours, as a front pushes up from south west, but wasn't totally confident this will happen.

BBC news24 just now predicted same

If that was snow it would make monday look like a starter.

[BARRY]

highways agency weatherwatch for the south west

Tuesday evening and overnight:

Some hail, sleet or snow showers will last through the evening and overnight in parts of Hampshire and the southwest, particularly on roads close to English Channel coasts. Elsewhere, the night will be fine and dry, but with a widespread frost developing soon after dusk. Some mist and localised fog patches are expected towards the end of the night, when road users should allow a little extra time for defrosting vehicle windows completely.

Wednesday:

After a frosty start with localised mist and fog patches, the rest of the morning and early afternoon will be dry and bright. During the afternoon a band of rain will reach the southwest, and will spread slowly northwards and eastwards during the evening to reach the M4 by midnight. This rain will be preceded by snow, which will give further small accumulations on roads such as the A303 and the M3 by late evening.

Last updated on Tuesday 3rd February 2009 at 4 PM.

David brain on spotlight southwest,said that there is genuine concern for a severe snow event on wednesday night

[Evening thunder]

Well here it seems like we were just about the least affected area in the SW as usual...Typical..

[Snowyowl9]

Thursday is looking safe for snowcover.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rmgfs484.gif

Cold enough but GFS doesn`t show all that much.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rmgfs453.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rmgfs452.gif

Latest Fax chart looks the best,this looks like turning into a memorable cold spell,with more snow friday from the cold front coming south.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack1.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack2.gif

[BristolBlizzard]

Has anybody seen the Met Office warnings for the Southwest, unbelievable.

"There is a low risk of an exceptionally severe event affecting parts of Wales and central England. There is a low risk of exceptionally heavy snow giving accumulations of 10 to 20cm, with drifting possible in strengthening northeasterly winds. As yet there remains considerable uncertainty in the areas more likely to be affected but further updates will be issued as the situation becomes clearer."

It still is low risk as they say but the potential is very good. Dont mean to ramp it up but with BBC, ITV and now MetO both giving the same warnings is a good sign.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

Thats put the kiss of death on it then.

In other news, two cars have had a crash on my road this afternoon... one slid into the granite boulders and while asking for some assistance another went straight into the back of them... when will people learn that applying brakes on a 2WD on ice on a 17% hill is always going to lead straight to the insurance company...

[Nights King]

I have this terrible feeling that it will turn into a west washout and snow for midlands, south wales and south east like usual in these events.

Anyone think it may be a case of met office just covering their ass?

Then if it rained it would wash my gorgeous 5 inches away.

[Bristawl Si]

Thursday is looking safe for snowcover.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rmgfs484.gif

Cold enough but GFS doesn`t show all that much.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rmgfs453.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rmgfs452.gif

Latest Fax chart looks the best,this looks like turning into a memorable cold spell,with more snow friday from the cold front coming south.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack1.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack2.gif

The next few days look an absolute nightmare for forecasters! Reminds me of winters of yesteryear. These synoptics really are a 'developing situation'; one just never knows what's going to hit one's area!

Things will chop and change re snow events IMO.

Nowcasting comes into play. And that's when a forum like NW is the best place to be!!

[madge]

Having massive heavy blizzard on Salisbury plain now! hope it continues don't want to go to work tomorrow as i don't want to drive on it!

[BristolBlizzard]

I have this terrible feeling that it will turn into a west washout and snow for midlands, south wales and south east like usual in these events.

Anyone think it may be a case of met office just covering their ass?

Then if it rained it would wash my gorgeous 5 inches away.

We pretty much have just as much chance as South Wales and I cant imagine the South East getting much from this.

Yeah they are definately playing it safe and it is a low risk, Im just interested in the potential of a big event.

[BARRY]

I have this terrible feeling that it will turn into a west washout and snow for midlands, south wales and south east like usual in these events.

Anyone think it may be a case of met office just covering their ass?

Then if it rained it would wash my gorgeous 5 inches away.

you don't have to brag about it

[Karen Ann]

Up nr Shaftesbury where the big hills are, gives me a nice advantage in the snow stakes !.

Right I get the idea. Just trying to get bearings for people in the area so I can see what I may be looking forward to or not!

I've got to drive your way on Friday and Saturday (off to Warminster). I normally go the top road (Spread Eagle Hill) but not sure if I'm fancying doing that in this kind of weather. Mind you the A350 and its bends aren't much a choice either!!!!

The snow has nearly all gone here now. We've been getting some persistant rain showers for the last hour and it's washing it all the way. The temperature was 3 oC at 6pm and is now 4 oC.

[Dartmoor_Matt]

We often get out best snow from these types of situations, but I have a feeling this one is just too marginal with the cold air not digging far enough south in time, we shall see tho.

[snow what snow]

any snow for us in south west devon or are we just going to get rain, keeping everything crossed that we see some white stuff.

[Karen Ann]

We've got snow again here now but it is really wet heavy stuff that just turns to slush the minute it hits the deck. Sunday and Mondays snow was much drier, drifted down and settled straight away.

[MP-R]

I wonder if those showers and that big clump over the Salisbury Plain is going to migrate towards this way over the coming hours. It does look like it could be snowing really quite hard there atm.

[lfcdude]

where abouts on sailsbury plane isit?

[slinky1989]

Just started snowing here Not forecast either so nice surprise!

[madge]

It's now so bad here over the plains that the sky signal has compleatly gone and has been heavy snow for about an hour it is brilliant!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Karen Ann]

I wonder if those showers and that big clump over the Salisbury Plain is going to migrate towards this way over the coming hours. It does look like it could be snowing really quite hard there atm.

I think it is, my sister has just phoned (using her hands free of course) saying she's driving through on hell of alot of snow on her way to picking her hubby up from the train station. From what I can remember she has to drive over the plain to get to the station.

[lfcdude]

where abnout on the plains? am in devizes no snow yet... is it heading my way?

[madge]

where abouts on sailsbury plane isit?

The snow at present is over Tidworth about 20 miles from swindon and 20 from Salisbury

where abouts on sailsbury plane isit?

The snow at present is over Tidworth about 20 miles from swindon and 20 from Salisbury

[BristolBlizzard]

It's now so bad here over the plains that the sky signal has compleatly gone and has been heavy snow for about an hour it is brilliant!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hey, where abouts do you live.

[J10]

Ok here is latest fax for tomorrow 12z, also have the previous to compare.

Any small changes will make huge difference for Thurs / Fri event

Ok the light blue shading is Cold air heading towards us for the weekend, the arrow shows a front that seems to be more active which could effect UK later.

For the Thurs /Fri Event what is of interest is that the low seems to be in same place, but the fronts have moved slightly further North towards us ( indicated by purple arrow)

We need the percipitation but for snow we need the cold. The 528 dam is likely to be somewhere over mid wales. Wind direction from east as it hits us would be helpful and that will depend on the exact track of the system as it moves northeast wards . Towards the centre of the low is most likely to remain warmest for longest, I hope that moves along the English Channel a little longer than forecast. That will mix colder air with the outer isobars as it crosses us. Cold air can be stubborn and stay in place longer than thought in these situations which is why i think BBC are showing Snow over northern Counties of the Southwest.

Its fingers crossed as we wait to see the exact track of the low and the associated weather fronts.

For those who know the charts, does that high pressure towards greenland seem to building better than expected to allow some blocking? Jackone?

I think the first front from the south, going by the newly issued FAX may be a little too far east for us to get the most out of (certainly for the far west of Wales, but the following fronts from the north , look very good indeed. However as yuo ay this can easily move a little further west and things would looks much better.

The fronts pushing on behind later look more conducive with some heavy snow again possible, going forward there doesn't seem to be that much blocking in the medium term as highlighted by UKMO T+144, but the ECM then looks a bit better at T+168, but then looks very strange in FI, with a HP directly on top of us, whihc is implausible to me, IMO there are conflicting signals at the moment causing these strange charts at this range.