Snow Watch: Midlands & C Southern England

[The Calm before the Storm]

Yayyyyy! At last it has started snowing lightly again

[Costa Del Fal]

Tonights wont get here because the East will have it all again. Im very frustrated.

[WestMidlandsWeather]

If the precip in Wales continues to move the way it is, it could clip the NW Midlands.

[chin86]

snow has gone moderate here.. i dnt know how long will it last ...

[PurpleFizz]

the snow here has slowed down now. It looks to be a little sleety! NOOO!

[Costa Del Fal]

Im fed up of here missing everything great, if the forecasters cant forecast ours even 12 hours ahead properly then there are big problems.

[Cornflake Girl]

The snow has been melting a bit here, but it has literally just started snowing again. Yay.

[SalopWatcher]

Strange, its been snowing, proper snow (if thats a term) not sleety in anyway, lightly since just before 11, now its just got heavier... wonder how long this will last...

[Geordiesnow]

Im fed up of here missing everything great, if the forecasters cant forecast ours even 12 hours ahead properly then there are big problems.

I have too say, i thought Birmingham would be in the firing line for some snow but i guess it goes too show that you can't just rely on the forecasts. As always the case Luke, its a matter of radar watching and sometimes the radar won't show what we want too see, other times we will be pleasantly surprised. You might of learnt something in the respect that when a possible snow vent is only 12 hours away, never get too sucked in by the forecasts. Anyways at least you probably got lying snow unlike me so something to be happy of i suppose.

[NorthantsSnow]

Thats the forecast for Northamptonshire.

Yes, I thought I would post it in here because it had a bit about the UK generally and was very interesting for people in Northants and neighbouring counties.

Wonder if anyone could help - I'm trying to send images to people and various organisations but it keeps failing.

My pictures are massive in their original form. What's the best way to send them? How can I make them that bit smaller?

[Essan]

Big thaw underway in Evesham now.

But that just means even more water to freeze tonight

[barmybrummy1]

Any kind souls reading this thread that are located on or near the lickeys, can you please tell me what the conditions are like on the tops ? I was planning to head up there later.

Melting snow ?

Temperature ?

A38 Passable ?

its fine no real melting snow and not to sure bout temp

[MKN]

The bbc got it wrong by 50mile last night to the south and east, lets hope it gets shunted a bith further north and west this time round. both forecasts i just watched on bbc news and east midlands didnt really mention snow at all for my area. yet based on them charts i should expect something. Another bbc cock up on the cards??

[andy_leics22]

Im fed up of here missing everything great, if the forecasters cant forecast ours even 12 hours ahead properly then there are big problems.

Well don't worry because according to the BBC Leicester is going to miss out tonight so the East won't get the snow. It looks to be southern central England like Northampton, Oxford etc...

[MKN]

Just to add snows picked up a bit here, not settling on any tarmac but im sure it must be topping the snow on the grass up

[andy_leics22]

The bbc got it wrong by 50mile last night to the south and east, lets hope it gets shunted a bith further north and west this time round. both forecasts i just watched on bbc news and east midlands didnt really mention snow at all for my area. yet based on them charts i should expect something. Another bbc cock up on the cards??

The funny thing is... The GFS last night had the heaviest of the precip in South Wales and West Midlands and the UKMO has the heaviest in Central Midlands, the UKMO was closer to the mark. Now the GFS is progging it as far North as Leicester ans the UKMO say not getting above Northampton, hmmm.

[stoke weather watch]

I see the snow/rain band crossing wales has got very close to the midlands and seems to be swinging round a bit.

does anyone think we will get anything out of it?

[MKN]

The funny thing is... The GFS last night had the heaviest of the precip in South Wales and West Midlands and the UKMO has the heaviest in Central Midlands, the UKMO was closer to the mark. Now the GFS is progging it as far North as Leicester ans the UKMO say not getting above Northampton, hmmm.

our best bet is just to wait for the 18z gfs output, along with a look at the radar. if you notice though, the gfs currently has me under precip right now which is more than can be said for the radar

[NorthantsSnow]

The funny thing is... The GFS last night had the heaviest of the precip in South Wales and West Midlands and the UKMO has the heaviest in Central Midlands, the UKMO was closer to the mark. Now the GFS is progging it as far North as Leicester ans the UKMO say not getting above Northampton, hmmm.

Just seen the forecast on BBC News. The snow line finished just north of Northampton. And that was for 8am. Going to be very very close indeed.

Whereas the GFS has the bulk of it further north and west, so some disagreement there which is worth watching, but after last night my money is on the UKMO. For your location though Andy I bet you are praying the GFS has this one nailed!

What annoys me about the forecast is they keep banging on about London & the SE again as if it's the only area which will be affected. To be fair John did mention the snow reaching Northampton but Jo Wheeler on Sky is only talking about the snow in the SE, more disruption likely I think.

WHAT a cold spell this has become, simply amazing :lol:

[conor123]

The funny thing is... The GFS last night had the heaviest of the precip in South Wales and West Midlands and the UKMO has the heaviest in Central Midlands, the UKMO was closer to the mark. Now the GFS is progging it as far North as Leicester ans the UKMO say not getting above Northampton, hmmm.

Hopefully it will shoot up into East Wales & The West Midlands instead :lol:

Its very greedy of me to be dissapointed, but some people were saying up to 20-25cm could of fallen today in West Midlands, Shefali said 30cm on hills last night.

So it was one hell of a downgrade for it to go about 100 miles further east than progged.

The South East had their 20cm worth on Monday, us West Midlanders need ours now :o :lol:

It is snowing here lightly at the moment though nowhere heavy enough to do much.

[MKN]

2 hours of snowfall here now, i wish it would get dark though, as it doesnt really add up2 much during daylight hours at this intensity.

[SalopWatcher]

I see the snow/rain band crossing wales has got very close to the midlands and seems to be swinging round a bit.

does anyone think we will get anything out of it?

You might, we have had about an hour of light/moderate snow. Not far to you from here!

[andy_leics22]

2 hours of snowfall here now, i wish it would get dark though, as it doesnt really add up2 much during daylight hours at this intensity.

Worrying here though, dew point 0.3c ground temp 0.9c :lol: As soon as that ground temp hits 1c it's going to start falling as drizzle and slowly thaw out the snow.

[MKN]

No less than 3 potential snow events to keep a very close eye on over the next 120 hrs.

Event 1 is now starting to come into focus for the central - southern England tomorrow morning as the second core of this complex low pressure system currently affecting the south of the UK works its way along the Channel.

Models vary on the northward extension of this system with GFS, Parallel GFS and NOGAPS 06Z all trending to develop a tight core and ocluded front straddling the south. 850hPa temp and wet bulb temps look favourable for snow for most locations away from the coast. Uncertainty on the strength and positioning of this feature as GEM and UKM 00z take this feature further south and bring the colder air to the north further south quicker shunting the fronts southwards and eastwards. Given the events of the last few days and sudden shifts in positions of fronts, the northern edge to this could be as far north as Birmingham and south as Hampshire. Key advice will be to watch the radar !

Event 2 sees a weakening Atlantic front attempt to push in from the west on Sunday. All global forecast models agree on this front working its way W to E becoming NNW-SSE track across the south-west part of the UK. Sub -5C 850 hPa values will dig in ahead of this and become ensconsed for a 24-36 hour period with a sharp frost likely Friday and Saturday night developing a cold wedge of air above the surface. ECM 850 hPa temperature forecast for Sunday in advance of the front:

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#teg=temp

All models suggest the front to slide across cold air which maintains to the east and north with a snow event more probable given projected upper air values. Perhaps some snow to rain in the south-west and far west of Wales. The doubts here are just how much precipitation there will be on this front as it collides with the colder air.

Event 3, the most marginal on current projections sees a vigorous low develop on the left exit of the jetstream at t96-120. Various ideas currently on the track of this but general trend is for French Coast and running into Belgium. 850 hPa values look marginal although with a strong SE wind and heavy precipitation, the margins for error are slim and a 100 mile shift in the positioning of the low would have implications for a high impact event along the southern half of the UK. Much of the uncertainty of this event will be tied into the previous event and how this eddies cold upper air back southwards on its western flank.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?...&carte=1021

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_carte...=120&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_carte...=120&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_carte...0&runpara=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_carte...de=0&mode=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_carte...1&runpara=1

courtesy of glacial point. thought it may be of interest to some who havent read it in the model output discussion

[andy_leics22]

Just seen the forecast on BBC News. The snow line finished just north of Northampton. And that was for 8am. Going to be very very close indeed.

Whereas the GFS has the bulk of it further north and west, so some disagreement there which is worth watching, but after last night my money is on the UKMO. For your location though Andy I bet you are praying the GFS has this one nailed!

What annoys me about the forecast is they keep banging on about London & the SE again as if it's the only area which will be affected. To be fair John did mention the snow reaching Northampton but Jo Wheeler on Sky is only talking about the snow in the SE, more disruption likely I think.

WHAT a cold spell this has become, simply amazing :lol:

I am! To be honest the precip could make it to leicester on it's Northern edge and stall there, it isn't impossible because the GFS kind of shows it stalling around Nottingham and then going back East later on tomorrow. It will hurt though is the Northern edge is about 15 miles South of here though. I've got a feeling it's going to be one of those radar watches again where the precip is very very slow and it might just stop South of me lol.