Snow Watch: North West England

[SP1986]

I have lived on the wirral for nearly 9 years.i came from cardiff(which saw loads of snow most years depending were abouts you were).In the city centre towards the late 70s it didnt snow that much.I moved up towards the outskirts in 1980...Oh yes we had loads of snow that cut you off for days.Th Wirral is so strange for weather....Where Mr SP is the weather is very different from Bromborough weather.But It is very varied on the wirral...more so than Cardiff...Its good but you never can tell what will happen next.

I think little differences like the west of Wirral being more hilly (and slightly higher and exposed to the Irish sea) and also being closer to the Welsh hills, whilst east Wirral is still hilly but lower, and further away from welsh hills explains weather differences.

Ive lived here all my life and the one thing I'd describe my part of the Wirral is very much desert-like. I can never remember much rain.

Interestingly though you're right, the Thurstaston weather station recorded 690mm last year whilst Bebington recorded 720mm last year. Quite big differences for only 6-7 miles difference

[Hot*Snow]

The bbc news 24 forecast seemed to show good prospects for our region - and to be fair their forecasts have been very good over the last week.

In fact it was the best snowcast I have seen for our region in a long time. Nice to finally see the north west potentially getting something at least - Interesting stuff indeed.

I'm suprised how quiet it is in this part of the forum today.

Edited February 7, 2009 by Hot*Snow

[snowdrifter]

The bbc news 24 forecast seemed to show good prospects for our region - and to be fair their forecasts have been very good over the last week.

In fact it was the best snowcast I have seen for our region in a long time. Nice to finally see the north west potentially getting something at least - Interesting stuff indeed.

I'm suprised how quiet it is in this part of the forum today.

Hi HS - what did the report say? Will listening to the next one in about 5 mins to make sure its not a wind-up. (only joking mate!!)

Edited February 7, 2009 by snowdrifter

[Hot*Snow]

Hi HS - what did the report say? Will listening to the next one in about 5 mins to make sure its not a wind-up. (only joking mate!!)

In the last forecast I saw the radar had a large area of snow covering the region for a long period of time, forecaster mentioned words 'snow', 'north-west', 'significant' and were 'keeping an eye on it' - which I have'nt heard all week! They did'nt go beyond Sunday either although it could be because they were pressed for time.

Certainly positive anyway.

[SP1986]

In the last forecast I saw the radar had a large area of snow covering the region for a long period of time, forecaster mentioned words 'snow', 'north-west', 'significant' and were 'keeping an eye on it' - which I have'nt heard all week! They did'nt go beyond Sunday either although it could be because they were pressed for time.

Certainly positive anyway.

When was it for? tomorrow?

[Hot*Snow]

When was it for? tomorrow?

Yes it was for Sunday. Just seen the latest 15:30 forecast and it was similar - as I sais it is the most positive forecast (snow-wise) I have seen for the north-west over the last week.

[snowdrifter]

In the last forecast I saw the radar had a large area of snow covering the region for a long period of time, forecaster mentioned words 'snow', 'north-west', 'significant' and were 'keeping an eye on it' - which I have'nt heard all week! They did'nt go beyond Sunday either although it could be because they were pressed for time.

Certainly positive anyway.

Just seen it - looks good - white right up to the edge of the Fylde coast - which basically means everyone else has a chance too!! Timing was for mid/late afternoon till about 10-ish tomorrow night (correct me if I'm wrong). Pleeaase stall for a bit - that would be good.

[SP1986]

Yes it was for Sunday. Just seen the latest 15:30 forecast and it was similar - as I sais it is the most positive forecast (snow-wise) I have seen for the north-west over the last week.

Thats I suppose something good.

I assume for snow it will be of sleet here, maybe snow at first, but Im pretty sure eventually it was supposed to turn to rain?

[cheshire snow]

Certinly looked good on latest news 24 forecast looks like a good 3-4 hrs of Moderate Snow

For the NW

[James M]

I think if the GFS is right it will turn to sleet or rain for lower levels but possibly staying as snow for high ground as some cooler air filters back in.

Edited February 7, 2009 by James M

[Hot*Snow]

I would agree - moderate snow with some heavy bursts, so potentially could bring a couple of inches. The bbc forecast did not show any indications of this being a transitional event either which I am suprised by. I suppose the god thing is that as the band leaves the region it will do so at night time. Certainly will keppe an eye on their forecasts - as I said earlier they have been pretty accurate this week.

IF this was to pull off then this winter would stand out because - we have had a week of snowfall systems that have affected pretty much the whole of the UK - including areas that are not prone to snow. However this would have to be a signifiant event for the north west in order to stand out for me.

[louloulou1964]

I would agree - moderate snow with some heavy bursts, so potentially could bring a couple of inches. The bbc forecast did not show any indications of this being a transitional event either which I am suprised by. I suppose the god thing is that as the band leaves the region it will do so at night time. Certainly will keppe an eye on their forecasts - as I said earlier they have been pretty accurate this week.

IF this was to pull off then this winter would stand out because - we have had a week of snowfall systems that have affected pretty much the whole of the UK - including areas that are not prone to snow. However this would have to be a signifiant event for the north west in order to stand out for me.

well it does happen on the wirral...I am always reading in the local paper about big snow events from yester year...so you never know Hot Snow(man)

[snowdrifter]

I think if the GFS is right it will turn to sleet or rain for lower levels but possibly staying as snow for high ground as some cooler air filters back in.

I don't mind as long as it's proper settling snow for a reasonable while first - anything that i can immortalise with a camera would be welcome.

[Hot*Snow]

If the front is being preceeded by cold air I can't see it turing to rain for long - if at all.

The bbc have'nt indicated this either.

[snowdrifter]

If the front is being preceeded by cold air I can't see it turing to rain for long - if at all.

The bbc have'nt indicated this either.

That's what I saw HS - even here on the coast it showed a faint bluey (rain?) area for a very short time and then white on the whole of the system.

Edited February 7, 2009 by snowdrifter

[SP1986]

That's what I saw HS - even here on the coast it showed a faint bluey (rain?) area for a very short time and then white on the whole of the system.

Probably wont settle then in all honesty so the usual occurrence

[Hot*Snow]

Yeah this is pretty normal procedure for bbc forecasts - they have been doing it all week for the snow that has affected the south.

It's not my style to ramp events up, as I'm sure alot of you know by now - however the fact that the BBC are on board for me as a significant boost given the accuracy of their forecasts over the last week.

Hot*Snow

[Snowmad79]

Looks like a bit of an upgrade for us on the 12z for tomorrow, not so much the intensity but defontly a better track of ppn through the region. It also reaches the region sooner on that chart around midday.

Theres still the problem of the dew points and t850's etc raising as the band passes through.

Also the band of heavy ppn that hits the uk with the LP passing across the south on tuesday is progged futher north and funnily enough ends up over us and appears to stall for a time before swing round and heading SE but again we have the problem of high dew points and T85o's due to the warm sector of the LP. back edge snow is possible for southern areas of the nw.

The south most probably getting a absolute soaking before the colder air catches up lol.

MMMm thats strange could see the moon already in broad daylight, not sure ive seen that before.

[Weather-history]

The Manchester TAF

long-TAF: EGCC 071102Z 0712/0818 33008KT 9999 SCT040 TEMPO 0722/0810 7000 PROB40 0800/0809 3000 BR MIFG BECMG 0804/0807 18010KT BECMG 0812/0815 6000 RA RASN BKN014 TEMPO 0812/0818 1500 SN BKN004 PROB30 TEMPO 0816/0818 0500 +SN VV///

Forecast valid from 07 at 12 UTC to 08 at 18 UTC

Wind 08 kt from north/northwest

Visibility greater than 10 km

Scattered clouds at a height of 4000 ft

Temporary

from 07 at 22 UTC to 08 at 10 UTC

Visibility 7000 m

Probability 40%

from 08 at 00 UTC to 08 at 09 UTC

Visibility 3000 m

mist and shallow fog

Becoming

from 08 at 04 UTC to 08 at 07 UTC

Wind 10 kt from south

Becoming

from 08 at 12 UTC to 08 at 15 UTC

Visibility 6000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 1400 ft

rain and rain snow

Temporary

from 08 at 12 UTC to 08 at 18 UTC

Visibility 1500 m

Broken clouds at a height of 400 ft

snow

Probability 30% :

Temporary

from 08 at 16 UTC to 08 at 18 UTC

Visibility 0500 m

heavy snow

[SP1986]

TAF EGGP 071102Z 0712/0812 33010KT 9999 FEW030 PROB30

TEMPO 0712/0721 6000 -SHSN BKN014 PROB30 0800/0809 3000 BR MIFG

BECMG 0803/0806 19010KT PROB30 0811/0812 4000 -SN BKN014

snow showers, mist, fog, and light snow for Liverpool airport according to this TAF.

[Bartlett Low]

Hi Mr.Data, can you put the meat on the bones so to speak of that Airport forecast, each time you post one I mean to ask. I'm struggling to understand it really, abreviations and what not.

[Interitus]

The only problem with Sunday is that all progged precipitation is low - around 5 or 6 mm tops so maybe couple of inches of snow which what the met are warning.

The totals for Monday/Tuesday's low is much, much higher with the GFS giving 15-20 mm and over an inch further south. The temperatures could be marginal but the met don't think so with their forecast for the low being further south so there's a potential dumping Monday night.

Of course probably guaranteed it's going to be the same old story of snow with altitude with those in Merseyside, Cheshire, Lancashire and lowground Manchester getting a dusting or slush while looking enviously as the Peaks, Pennines and the Oldham/Saddleworth crew cop an absolute pasting.

Then most models are hinting that milder weather is trying to storm in for the end of the week. Even the hopecasters fave ECM sees it coming but somehow magics up another cold blast.

[NorthWest_Snow]

The only problem with Sunday is that all progged precipitation is low - around 5 or 6 mm tops so maybe couple of inches of snow which what the met are warning.

The totals for Monday/Tuesday's low is much, much higher with the GFS giving 15-20 mm and over an inch further south. The temperatures could be marginal but the met don't think so with their forecast for the low being further south so there's a potential dumping Monday night.

Of course probably guaranteed it's going to be the same old story of snow with altitude with those in Merseyside, Cheshire, Lancashire and lowground Manchester getting a dusting or slush while looking enviously as the Peaks, Pennines and the Oldham/Saddleworth crew cop an absolute pasting.

Then most models are hinting that milder weather is trying to storm in for the end of the week. Even the hopecasters fave ECM sees it coming but somehow magics up another cold blast.

Well the thing is, its pretty balmy here and last night in the wee hours the airport reported 1C and it felt much warmer than that.

Temp 4.3°C

Dewpoint: -2°C

Heat Index: 4°C

Wind Chill: -0°C

Visibility: 11 km

Humidity: 64%

Wind Speed: 19 KMH

Wind Direction: N (350°)

Barometer: 1000 mb

If we are to see any snow, it seriously needs to cool down tonight!

Edited February 7, 2009 by NorthWest_Snow

[SP1986]

Every county in England has a weather warning tonight for ice except guess where? you guessed it: NW England

[snowdrifter]

Every county in England has a weather warning tonight for ice except guess where? you guessed it: NW England

There's a line in the film 'School of Rock' where Jack Black says to the kids "OK I'll teach you something - in this life you can try but in the end you're gonna lose, so just give up!" Maybe that should be the motto for NW snow-hopers! (no pun intended)

Edited February 7, 2009 by snowdrifter