A Question For Next Winter

[Anti-Mild]

I'm not sure if this is in the correct place but if it's not I'm sure one of the mods will shift it.

In order to lead up to the question, allow me to set the scene:

....it's December 1987 and you are a snow lover. You have enjoyed an almost constant succession of cold and snowy winters, and have been spoilt if truth be told! Little do you know that (aside from a handful of notable cold spells) it is all coming to a crashing end thanks to the slouching spectre of 'Global Warming'!!! And you had such high hopes for Winter 87/88!!

Fast forward nearly 21 years to October 2008 - an entire generation has had to put up with an endless stream of mediocre to awful winters and has never experienced 'decent' snowfall. Frontal snow is almost a myth, as are Beasterlys and as for new snow falling onto old....eh? Whoever heard of such a thing?

By this time, most snow lovers would be content with a couple of inches of lying snow and a handful of frosts. Then, we get significant low lying snow in October in the south of England, possibly the most since 1880; November is a Northerly month and the last week is cold; December is well below average in terms of temperature with a fair bit of snow at the start of the month; January is also cooler than normal with sea ice off the south coast for the first time in 18 years; as for the start of February - lets just say that up to the 8th the mean temp running is 0.4c and there has been significant snowfall in most parts of the country at some time or other with some places having the most snow seen in almost 2 decades......and the models indicate no end in sight to the cold weather.

My question is this: with the events that have occurred this winter, have your expectations for next winter, and subsequent winters, been raised or lowered?

I suppose the answer will depend on whether or not you are, by nature, an optimistic or pessimistic person. It's a bit simplistic but IMO an optimist will see this winter as a start of a new trend, whereas a pessimist may see this winter as being a last hurrah!!

Discuss.

[paul tall]

I'm not optimistic enough, or daft enough, to set new standards of expectation for winters future of the back of one cold winter. You have to go by the mean when comparing climate stats and I go by the mean for expectations...the last 15-20 years have been quite a sad story really. Funnily enough, we've had better spells of snow in milder winters up here, but it has been refreshingly cold all around this year.

Really we need a decade of winters with a few cold winters in that decade before we raise expectations to those of old. Before we can say there is a plateau of warming or even a reversal of that trend. And until you know that things aren't warming, how could you set different expectations of a winter?

Another thing, is no matter what this winter does - the Climate Change Industry will ponder this question......."how much colder and/or snowier would this winter have been without the effects of global warming?" That should keep them in research grants for a few more years.

One thing I'd love to see would be a long run of cold snowy winters in the next decade, but lets face it, even in the 60's and 80's it wasn't reliably cold or snowy every year.

Edited February 9, 2009 by paul tall

[drgl]

Another thing, is no matter what this winter does - the Climate Change Industry will ponder this question......."how much colder and/or snowier would this winter have been without the effects of global warming?" That should keep them in research grants for a few more years.

One thing I'd love to see would be a long run of cold snowy winters in the next decade, but lets face it, even in the 60's and 80's it wasn't reliably cold or snowy every year.

I must admit however that i myself have wondered that! The early 80's i seem to remember lots of snow, the last really decent event was at school in '86 i think. This winter has one thing-prolonged cold, we still have lying snow from over a week ago!(and have had i don't know how many HARD frosts). One things for sure, hopefully it's killed off some of the bugs like a proper winter should!

[Mondy]

Optimistic for more like this winter in the coming years.

This is just the start of it!

Edit: I'm also optimistic the phrase "even larger teapot" will disappear.

Edited February 9, 2009 by Delta X-Ray

[NorthernRab]

This winter has been special - I had never heard the Met Office use the term 'a very severe widespread frost' before, even in the Highlands. The snow has been great too.

However, I'm not expecting this next year, hopefully if a trend starts to emerge then I can begin to expect a bit more :o

[The watcher]

What about the Normalist who realises winters are just winters and change every year no matter what we think or want. For all we know next year could be the mildest, it could be the coldest, or it'll just be a plain average winter. :o

[azores92]

i agree with paul. it is too presumptuous to assume that this is only the beginning, when you go on the evidence that isolated cold winters do occur, i have a nagging feeling this is one of them. i admire optimism, but i feel this winter is just a cat amongst the woodpigeons. it could potentially be the start, but i feel its just one of those cold winters.

[Snowstorm1]

global warming isnt happenning i think people claimed this before about 100 years ago and look what happened so as far as i am concerned even larger teapot Is Over

[Optimus Prime]

i think people claimed this before about 100 years ago and look what happened so as far as i am concerned even larger teapot Is Over

Any evidence to back up that load of drivel? Do you not remember the incredible warm spell from May 2006 - April 2007? 5 months in that period either record breaking or close to record breaking. Also mentioning countless warm records broken, and only a few cold ones (recently October 08')

The current run is most definitely just a blip. Won't be long before we start hammering more warm records. Much of the arctic is still very warm, and sea ice is also low.

I have fond memories of the 'even larger teapot is over' after the cold run of November - March 2006.

[paul tall]

We have to be realistic and realise this could be a one in 20 years winter. If so, we're still in trouble. If so, it'd have been colder and more extreme 20/40/60 years ago.

There's just no way you can think "this is the start of the normalisation of our climate" on the evidence of one cold winter.

I agree though, that this winter could give you heart and make you think "well even in the recent warming climate, a cold winter is still possible, so it can happen again", so there is that to cling onto - but the million dollar question is "is this a one off not to be seen for another 2 decades and is there going to be 19 average and mild winters in between?"

I think I'd need a decade - with 5 colder than 71-00 average winters to convince me that things have levelled off.

[Guest]

Had a look at the CET stats for winters since 1915 for this one and it appears that below average temperature winters tend to come in blocks, varying from 2 to 6 winters on a trot.

Bearing this in mind I would bet that next winter will be another cold one, even colder than this if the continental temperatures get down to a reasonable low.

Had they been as low as they were in 1963, I doubt that there would have been hardly any rain in the uk this year, except for extreme fringes, all the precipitation would have been of snow and there would have been a depth of about 18 inches outside my house instead of the gradual thawing, leaving of patches of an inch or so at the moment.

I wont mind that provided we have a great '76 type summer, 2003 was just a little but too warm. Whether it be cold or warm, above all give me dry weather interspersed with the occasional storm for the sake of interest and the garden.

[Rob]

agree with the above, cold winters never seem to come one on there own, im guessing 2010 and possibly 2011 will be cold winters too

agree with the above, cold winters never seem to come one on there own, im guessing 2010 and possibly 2011 will be cold winters too

[Optimus Prime]

Had they been as low as they were in 1963, I doubt that there would have been hardly any rain in the uk this year, except for extreme fringes, all the precipitation would have been of snow

Can't say I agree there. In order to get these set-ups we have at the moment, you have to make them more marginal as milder SWs will always race in behind the front. There were several spells in 1963 that brought mild temperatures to the south west and fronts came close to the UK, bringing in rain and higher temperatures. But because the blocking was so much in force to the north, the lows moving from the SW never made much progress north.

February 63 however brought the most extreme snowstorm on record for England, with 1.5METRES of level lieying snow to parts of south wales. A record depth for lowland Britain;

Blocking resumed from the 9th.

[Mondy]

Any evidence to back up that load of drivel? Do you not remember the incredible warm spell from May 2006 - April 2007? 5 months in that period either record breaking or close to record breaking. Also mentioning countless warm records broken, and only a few cold ones (recently October 08')

The current run is most definitely just a blip. Won't be long before we start hammering more warm records. Much of the arctic is still very warm, and sea ice is also low.

I have fond memories of the 'even larger teapot is over' after the cold run of November - March 2006.

I'll back up the evidence, if that's ok with you?

The sea ice extent is pretty much the same as 1993, 1996, 1997, 2000, 2005, 2006 and 2007. Indeed, the red line is rising again so has clearly "beaten" 2006, 2007.

Furthermore, here is the sea ice extent status in the past week:

Feb 1 - 13.635 (million sq.km)

Feb 9 - 14.000 (million sq.km)

So it is not decreasing. Have a looky here if you will.

[MR EXTREMES]

Any evidence to back up that load of drivel? Do you not remember the incredible warm spell from May 2006 - April 2007? 5 months in that period either record breaking or close to record breaking. Also mentioning countless warm records broken, and only a few cold ones (recently October 08')

The current run is most definitely just a blip. Won't be long before we start hammering more warm records. Much of the arctic is still very warm, and sea ice is also low.

I have fond memories of the 'even larger teapot is over' after the cold run of November - March 2006.

i love your reply so rude and a typical global warming comment rubbish infact.

ive herd alot of talk from many top forecasters and even the met office have given indications that future winters will be colder for a few more years atleast.

so drivel i think not,

i think the last few years have shown a remarkable difference you talk about april well how about april 2008 erm what snowfall on the south coast,

well i never see that happen in april in my whole 34years erm october2008 snowfall never seen that in my 34years,

and then theres nearly every month since october novermber cets below or average,

with 2007 and 2008 being a washout.

so do you know the answer to why this winter is just a one off?

and your the type to stand up and say low solar activity could never change our global temps?

got to remeber theres lots of investigating going on to why things have cooled down and theres loads to get through ie solar activity,reduced gulf stream flow, reduce gulf stream temps, la nina, el ninos,the list goes on and on.

thease all have effects on our global temps so is that global warming or is it natural climate change its a simple answer.

[Optimus Prime]

Delta-X-Ray, the ice extent trend is DECREASING, Arctic temperatures are RISING. Compared to last year at this current time, the ice extent is equal and is still well below average.

Badboy, it wasn't intended to be rude, the post by Snowstorm was a load of tosh. We had this same discussion in 2005/2006 about the cooling trend in a possible extended period which as it happened came to a sudden end during late Spring and Summer.

This winter has been a lot colder then recent years (unless something unbelievable happens during the second half of this month) but we still didn't get decently lwo temperatures from the easterly just gone, but it was still cold enough for snow. Even in a warming world, snow will fall but become more and more marginal particularily in winter, this winter has somewhat proved that theory.

[The watcher]

I find it funny when people say this winter is a one in 20 or 30 year event. It can realistically happen any year, as many times within 20 years as it wishes. We cannot pan down winters ahead....its a raffle, and so many scenarios are possible. So long as the synoptics are right we could see cold winters outrun warm or the complete opposite. However with global warming or at least the effects of our pollution and population severe winters are becoming less severe.

[Mondy]

Delta-X-Ray, the ice extent trend is DECREASING, Arctic temperatures are RISING. Compared to last year at this current time, the ice extent is equal and is still well below average.

Did you even read my post or look at the chart? Show me on that chart where it is DECREASING? You do see the red line, yes?

[Albion Snowman]

I think i will expect more snow/cold temps next winter but i think i will be dissapointed. I think this winter is a one off cold and snowy one and the winters to come will revert back to mild and wet but i hope i am proved extemely wrong!

[Optimus Prime]

Did you even read my post or look at the chart? Show me on that chart where it is DECREASING? You do see the red line, yes?

Ok, my last reply as this is going nowhere. The overall trend is for ice decreasing, not increasing or leveling. I see the red line and notice there's very little difference in comparison to the other years included in that table.

[Mondy]

Ok, my last reply as this is going nowhere.

Ditto - you see what you want to see is a phrase I'd use.

Good read this

Ciao

Edited February 9, 2009 by Delta X-Ray

[paul tall]

Delta-X-Ray, the ice extent trend is DECREASING. Compared to last year at this current time, the ice extent is equal and is still well below average.

I spot a bit of a flaw in that statement to be honest.

The trend isn't decreasing then is it, if the ice extent is equal to the same time last year.....the trend in the last two winters is stability is it not?

You'd have been better comparing this years ice extent to that of 20 years ago, rather than comparing to last year when it was the same!

Schoolboy error.

[Optimus Prime]

No Paul, the year on year trend is for ice to decreasde, after the second lowest extent on record last year. It's all silly really, the UK gets a cooldown and suddenly global warming doesn't exist. I guess getting people to look at the broader picture it too much to ask.

[paul tall]

No Paul, the year on year trend is for ice to decreasde, after the second lowest extent on record last year. It's all silly really, the UK gets a cooldown and suddenly global warming doesn't exist. I guess getting people to look at the broader picture it too much to ask.

I never said it wasn't decreasing overall to be fair. I just pointed out that you could have used a better argument than agreeing it is the same as last year!

[callmedick]

all the global warmlings, not exclusively however, should be very worried by the current state of our sun. Ironicly they act so concerned about a warming planet but will staunchly deny prospects of a cool down - according to them wouldnt this be good news? Sadly not, widespread crop failures and food shortages will follow.

If the sun enters a repeat of the maunder minimum we will in all likelyhood enter another mini ice age and this winter is just a sign of things to come. We should all be watching the sun very closely for clues for next winter...