Storm Risk Discussion

[maidstone weather]

I don't think anything's going to happen. It's been overcast all morning, cold and doesn't feel thundery at all. I suspect just some heavy rain in the far S + E of Kent, may stay dry here. :lol:

[Tommyboy2007]

I am fed up.

Around September last year, I remember thinking how disappointing the year had been with respect to storms in the South East. I resigned myself to another 6 month wait, till the spring and then we are bound to get lots of activity.

Here we are in June 2009 and not one single flash or rumble worthy of note, here in Horsham.

It's starting to hurt. Every day, around the world, fantastic thunderstorms are occurring, but here in the UK I just keep getting older and more starved of the one thing that truly thrills me.

If it wasn't for the fact that I have children and responsibilities, I would have moved long ago, to a place where storms are so frequent, that the locals see them as an inconvenience.

When something does ever happen in the UK, the chasing can be quite ridiculous. I have lost storms in the past by becoming completely disorientated on tree lined roads through the countryside. Finding a place to view storms in parts of the South East countryside can be so frustrating. And the roads network is just hopeless if you have to chase during rush hours.

There ! I wish i felt better after that outburst, .....but I don't.

[Coast]

One or two now in the Channel.......

Belgium is getting a real treat!

[Tn9]

Nice lot of sferics kicking off in NE France and Belgium, now it's the waiting game......

Well that's odd that never usually happens B) ,on a serious note,if its frequency of storms,not necessarily the most violent,that is one good place to be.

Edited June 9, 2009 by TN9

[Coast]

if its frequency of storms,not necessarily the most violent,that is one good place to be.

And chocolate, don't forget their chocolate...... B)

[maidstone weather]

sferic near Tralee, SW Ireland

[Coast]

Storm over Belgium now recognised:

*** NexStorm TRAC Report generated 09/06/2009 14:19:41

Tracking 1 thunderstorms

-------------------------------------------------------

Thunderstorm ID T-2901 detected 13:14

Storm location bearing 86.2 dgr distance 244 mi

Last recorded activity 14:19

Intensity class Weak

Intensity trend Intensifying

Current strikerate 2/minute

Peak strikerate 8/minute

Total recorded strikes 103

Cloud-Ground strikes 37 - 35.92%

Intracloud strikes 66 - 64.08%

-- Strike type distribution --

Positive Cloud-Ground [+CG] 12 - 11.65%

Negative Cloud-Ground [-CG] 25 - 24.27%

Positive Intracloud [+IC] 48 - 46.60%

Negative Intracloud [-IC] 18 - 17.48%

-------------------------------------------------------

*** TRAC Report end - NexStorm V1.6.0.2553:PCI

Nice lot of activity, I know triangulation is a separate topic of conversation but look at this detector station in the thick of it! www.weerstationroeselare.be

[Neilsouth]

Nothing here as per usual with the retarded met office forecasts , call themselves forecasters they can't even forecast the day right!

[Geordiesnow]

I think the Met Office has overhyped the warning for the SE corner imo, i do feel if it was NW Scotland that was in risk of Thundery showers the warning would probably not been issued so early or at all.

Seems like going by the radar, the showers are staying offshore.

[Harry]

Nothing here as per usual with the retarded met office forecasts , call themselves forecasters they can't even forecast the day right!

You've done well neilsouth in comparison to some fellow Kentish residents, lol

There is still potential for the cells just off the Kent coast to swing N and W a bit - so you aren't at a total loss just yet! Nothing here but darkening skies, spits in the air and depression B)

[maidstone weather]

I think the Met Office has overhyped the warning for the SE corner imo, i do feel if it was NW Scotland that was in risk of Thundery showers the warning would probably not been issued so early or at all.

Seems like going by the radar, the showers are staying offshore.

we had 12mm between midnight and 7am. Admittedly not high enough to warrant a warning, but it was the most rain to fall in this neck of the woods in one day since February 9th. It's been bone dry since 8am and we get a warning

And it's a known fact that when the MetO talk about thunderstorms they never materialise down here B) What got me was Matt Taylor who was talking about torrential thunderstorms only a few hours ago. If anything it's just scattered moderate showers? Yet again a poor show by the MetO

Edited June 9, 2009 by maidstone weather

[Geordiesnow]

On the flipside of the coin MW, does it not show in your eyes how difficult it is to predict the weather and mother nature will always have the final say. T-storms are difficult to predict and although i do feel the warning was probably issued too early, its not like the showers were that far away, if they crossed the channel and hit the SE then no-one will complain.

[Paul Sherman]

we had 12mm between midnight and 7am. Admittedly not high enough to warrant a warning, but it was the most rain to fall in this neck of the woods in one day since February 9th. It's been bone dry since 8am and we get a warning

And it's a know fact that when the MetO talk about thunderstorms they never materialise down here B) What got me was Matt Taylor who was talking about torrential thunderstorms only a few hours ago. If anything it's just scattered moderate showers? Yet again a poor show by the MetO

I think the main problem here for the Meto is a Re-Design of the Warnings page needs to be put forward and fast. I mean for christs sake a "BE PREPARED" Warning for a few maybe heavyish rain showers, this is laughable. I know you are probably sick of me banging on about the US But if this carry on went on over there the Met Office would have to be closed down for Incompetence (Harsh Words) but it needs saying! I really do not think that "their" Amber alert (Be prepared) has been needed apart from maybe a few occasions over the winter (1. Devon Hailstorm) (2. SE Snow) But apart from that and certainly for any Thundery activity over the past few years nothing more than an advisory (And I include the 6th Aug MCS Into this as well) Even that should only have been a Yellow if that, it was not a particulary strong series of thunderstorms at that.

On one of the Tours a few weeks ago we were travelling around a pretty pokey storm, but not 1 Severe Storm or Be prepared notice came over the weather radio......Why you may ask?? Well because it did not fit into the criteria of being "Severe" it only had Nickel Sized Hail, Only had 50mph Thunderstorm winds etc etc. Ask MCT & Arron they sat through a 5 Hour MCS The other night in Frederickburg (Tx) there were no warnings and only 3.1 Inches of rain fell with Cg's popping off everywhere, they were amazed no warnings were given but I guess different country different levels of Severe.

The main reason for this post is they need a SERIOUS Reality check if they (Meto) are to keep up these charades over the Summer!

Paul S

[Harry]

we had 12mm between midnight and 7am. Admittedly not high enough to warrant a warning, but it was the most rain to fall in this neck of the woods in one day since February 9th. It's been bone dry since 8am and we get a warning

And it's a know fact that when the MetO talk about thunderstorms they never materialise down here What got me was Matt Taylor who was talking about torrential thunderstorms only a few hours ago. If anything it's just scattered moderate showers? Yet again a poor show by the MetO

I agree - difficult/impossible a job or not, you'd expect with meteorology degrees, ultra powerful computers and a team of numerous people, across multiple organisations I might add (MetO, BBC, Press Association), they'd get a far higher proportion of thunderstorm forecasts correct than they have been so far this year. Yes the BBC get a lot, if not all of their data from MetO sources, yet I was always under the impression BBC forecasters had meteorology degrees and a 'wealth' of experience in their own right.

There are a lot of people who use this forum, who by their own admission, aren't either educated in this field, or even professional - yet, through common sense, radar watching and the most basic of conceptual understanding, can tell that x y z, is most likely to happen.

I cant even understand why a warning would be issued for heavy rain - its not as if Kent and Sussex have had high rainfall totals this year, let alone within the last 10 days!

[Paul Sherman]

On the flipside of the coin MW, does it not show in your eyes how difficult it is to predict the weather and mother nature will always have the final say. T-storms are difficult to predict and although i do feel the warning was probably issued too early, its not like the showers were that far away, if they crossed the channel and hit the SE then no-one will complain.

So are you saying they are Hopecasting then ???? Surely to god they know the dynamics of what the land/sea interaction is going to do to these Showers etc etc

Pi$$ Poor is all you can say

[maidstone weather]

On the flipside of the coin MW, does it not show in your eyes how difficult it is to predict the weather and mother nature will always have the final say. T-storms are difficult to predict and although i do feel the warning was probably issued too early, its not like the showers were that far away, if they crossed the channel and hit the SE then no-one will complain.

True - i wholly agree with you Just they really need to learn the difference between a few (now light) showers and torrential thunderstorms

Yeah, I think Meto need to really think about changing the way they forecast storms, like introducing a new division which specialises in storm forecasting, such as the SPC in the US. I know the US is alot more prone to severe thunderstorms but on Sunday the Meto didn't forecast the risk of severe storms in EA with the possibility of a tornado.

I respect Meto and they are most of the time accurate with their forecasts but with regards to storm forecasting, they need alot of improvement.

A quote from the Met Office themselves:

"Traditionally, numerical computer models have been poor at forecasting thunderstorms and other small-scale details.

New research is expected to provide further significant improvements in our ability to forecast heavy thunderstorms a few hours in advance."

Sooner than later i say

I think the main problem here for the Meto is a Re-Design of the Warnings page needs to be put forward and fast. I mean for christs sake a "BE PREPARED" Warning for a few maybe heavyish rain showers, this is laughable. I know you are probably sick of me banging on about the US But if this carry on went on over there the Met Office would have to be closed down for Incompetence (Harsh Words) but it needs saying! I really do not think that "their" Amber alert (Be prepared) has been needed apart from maybe a few occasions over the winter (1. Devon Hailstorm) (2. SE Snow) But apart from that and certainly for any Thundery activity over the past few years nothing more than an advisory (And I include the 6th Aug MCS Into this as well) Even that should only have been a Yellow if that, it was not a particulary strong series of thunderstorms at that.

On one of the Tours a few weeks ago we were travelling around a pretty pokey storm, but not 1 Severe Storm or Be prepared notice came over the weather radio......Why you may ask?? Well because it did not fit into the criteria of being "Severe" it only had Nickel Sized Hail, Only had 50mph Thunderstorm winds etc etc. Ask MCT & Arron they sat through a 5 Hour MCS The other night in Frederickburg (Tx) there were no warnings and only 3.1 Inches of rain fell with Cg's popping off everywhere, they were amazed no warnings were given but I guess different country different levels of Severe.

The main reason for this post is they need a SERIOUS Reality check if they (Meto) are to keep up these charades over the Summer!

Paul S

Here here

I agree - difficult/impossible a job or not, you'd expect with meteorology degrees, ultra powerful computers and a team of numerous people, across multiple organisations I might add (MetO, BBC, Press Association), they'd get a far higher proportion of thunderstorm forecasts correct than they have been so far this year. Yes the BBC get a lot, if not all of their data from MetO sources, yet I was always under the impression BBC forecasters had meteorology degrees and a 'wealth' of experience in their own right.

There are a lot of people who use this forum, who by their own admission, aren't either educated in this field, or even professional - yet, through common sense, radar watching and the most basic of conceptual understanding, can tell that x y z, is most likely to happen.

I cant even understand why a warning would be issued for heavy rain - its not as if Kent and Sussex have had high rainfall totals this year, let alone within the last 10 days!

Precisely! Ah well there's nowt we can do about it (except for moan B) )

[Neilsouth]

The main reason for this post is they need a SERIOUS Reality check if they (Meto) are to keep up these charades over the Summer!

Paul S

I don't usually agree with what you say but you are so spot on with this post! B)

[Paul Sherman]

I don't usually agree with what you say but you are so spot on with this post!

At least we agree on Something then

My main point though is not the Organisation (Or John Holmes will be on my back) It is these ridiculous Warning Systems they have in place.

GET RID! B)

[Tn9]

At least we agree on Something then

My main point though is not the Organisation (Or John Holmes will be on my back) It is these ridiculous Warning Systems they have in place.

GET RID! B)

You watch it will probably kick right off now

[SteveB]

I think the main problem here for the Meto is a Re-Design of the Warnings page needs to be put forward and fast. I mean for christs sake a "BE PREPARED" Warning for a few maybe heavyish rain showers, this is laughable. I know you are probably sick of me banging on about the US But if this carry on went on over there the Met Office would have to be closed down for Incompetence (Harsh Words) but it needs saying! I really do not think that "their" Amber alert (Be prepared) has been needed apart from maybe a few occasions over the winter (1. Devon Hailstorm) (2. SE Snow) But apart from that and certainly for any Thundery activity over the past few years nothing more than an advisory (And I include the 6th Aug MCS Into this as well) Even that should only have been a Yellow if that, it was not a particulary strong series of thunderstorms at that.

On one of the Tours a few weeks ago we were travelling around a pretty pokey storm, but not 1 Severe Storm or Be prepared notice came over the weather radio......Why you may ask?? Well because it did not fit into the criteria of being "Severe" it only had Nickel Sized Hail, Only had 50mph Thunderstorm winds etc etc. Ask MCT & Arron they sat through a 5 Hour MCS The other night in Frederickburg (Tx) there were no warnings and only 3.1 Inches of rain fell with Cg's popping off everywhere, they were amazed no warnings were given but I guess different country different levels of Severe.

The main reason for this post is they need a SERIOUS Reality check if they (Meto) are to keep up these charades over the Summer!

Paul S

I take no notice of the Met Office warnings, they have cried wolf to many times recently, any warnings or indeed any forcast from the BBC regarding rain or storms have not materialised, or if they have they have not been in the warnings area.

I know they have there supporters on this site, but it has really been a poor show of late.

Edited June 9, 2009 by SteveB

[Coast]

What I find amusing is that the evidence from here on NW and all the 'usual suspects' this morning is turning out correctly - perhaps the very tip of Kent may see something before dark but that's all I could see from my untrained, enthusiasts eyes first thing.

Perhaps in this age of corporate responsibility and blame, the Met O/BBC feel the need to cover their ar5e5 more these days? Or perhaps the Daily-Express culture is taking over!

Edited June 9, 2009 by Coast

[SteveB]

What I find amusing is that the evidence from here on NW and all the 'usual suspects' this morning is turning out correctly - perhaps the very tip of Kent may see something before dark but that's all I could see from my untrained, enthusiasts eyes first thing.

Perhaps in this age of corporate responsibility and blame, the Met O/BBC feel the need to cover their ar5e5 more these days? Or perhaps the Daily-Express culture is taking over!

I think it all stems from the floods in 2007. They got that totally wrong and under estimated the amount of rain. Since then, any sign of a storm or rain in general, then the warnings go out.

[StormChaseUK]

At least we agree on Something then B)

My main point though is not the Organisation (Or John Holmes will be on my back) It is these ridiculous Warning Systems they have in place.

GET RID!

Met O have never been any good at storm prediction, that's why a lot of other organisations, skywarn, estofex, other sferic radar services, forum/convective discussions seem to spring up and do so well. I do agree though with the millions spent on super computers and the exeter building they are still being beaten by the independant organisations with a fraction of the funding hands down.

Edited June 9, 2009 by danielreal2k

[maidstone weather]

OK that is rather frustrating to see just 10 miles across the water! B)

http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/i_dag_na.html?

[Harry]

I think the main problem here for the Meto is a Re-Design of the Warnings page needs to be put forward and fast. I mean for christs sake a "BE PREPARED" Warning for a few maybe heavyish rain showers, this is laughable. I know you are probably sick of me banging on about the US But if this carry on went on over there the Met Office would have to be closed down for Incompetence (Harsh Words) but it needs saying! I really do not think that "their" Amber alert (Be prepared) has been needed apart from maybe a few occasions over the winter (1. Devon Hailstorm) (2. SE Snow) But apart from that and certainly for any Thundery activity over the past few years nothing more than an advisory (And I include the 6th Aug MCS Into this as well) Even that should only have been a Yellow if that, it was not a particulary strong series of thunderstorms at that.

On one of the Tours a few weeks ago we were travelling around a pretty pokey storm, but not 1 Severe Storm or Be prepared notice came over the weather radio......Why you may ask?? Well because it did not fit into the criteria of being "Severe" it only had Nickel Sized Hail, Only had 50mph Thunderstorm winds etc etc. Ask MCT & Arron they sat through a 5 Hour MCS The other night in Frederickburg (Tx) there were no warnings and only 3.1 Inches of rain fell with Cg's popping off everywhere, they were amazed no warnings were given but I guess different country different levels of Severe.

The main reason for this post is they need a SERIOUS Reality check if they (Meto) are to keep up these charades over the Summer!

Paul S

You raise some potent points there Paul.

I think the huge difference between the US and the UK, is the US folk are far more knowledgeable regarding the weather - the general public I refer to in this instance - Nature's Fury highlighted this. The first sign of severe weather, and the public pull off the roads and into service stations (this made me laugh, lol - lightning, deadly wins, petroleum B) ). The US general public have the savvy to protect themselves from 'severe' weather. While we don't venture close to their standards of severe weather, our weather can take lives nonetheless, but the general public as a whole are wholly ignorant to that fact! Should severe storms hit, and lets be fair, we do get storms which are dangerous, the British public would not dream of being 'inconvenienced' by mother nature - venture on to the roads, irrespective of sudden gale force winds, torrential rain or worse! The risks from our storms do exist, and do need warning to people, as many would risk injuring/killing themselves for the sake of waiting 30 mins.

What is worse, the media are even more ignorant - 'mini tornado' - someone explain this concept to me...a 'mini tornado' would be one of those ropey things which is similar/identical to 60-70% of America's tornadoes? 'Scorcher' - a few days of 22C during May. 'Floods' - would that be large puddles on roads?

Part of me thinks that because of the ignorance of the British public/media, the MetO have to compensate by saying, actually, thunderstorms (when they happen) are actually dangerous and therefore you should 'be prepared' for not driving during them, or changing your plans slightly, to be on the safe side. The other part of me thinks for heaven's sake we aren't stupid - we know not to drive via cliffs during stormy winds, know not to drive river routes are hours/days of torrential rain - but then again, I revert back to my previous point - many people do need telling, and are stupid!!

My suggestion for a re-vamped warning system, on the topic of thunderstorms for example:

Green - No warning

Yellow - Care Needed - 'Very heavy rain expected, flash flooding likely, accompanied by lightning, hailstones and sudden wind gusts up to 40mph'

Orange - Dangerous - 'Torrential rain expected with flash flooding likely, perhaps more extensive flooding, along with frequent lightning, up to golf ball size hail causing damage to property and possibly to one's self, very strong wind gusts 60mph+ and tornadoes/funnel clouds likely.

Red - Life threatening - 'Persisent torrential rain bringing severe flooding, frequent lightning, golf to baseball size hail, 80mph+ straight line winds causing damage to property, strong tornadoes likely or spotted.

Yellow would be used if thunderstorms were likely, not thundery showers.

Orange would be used if severe thunderstorms were likely - a memorable thunderstorm effectively which is likely to cause damage

Red would in a thunderstorm capacity, be used once in every 3-5 years - a storm displaying clear, supercellular characteristics and posing clear risk to life.