Storm Risk Discussion

[Marcus_surfer]

the bbc forecasts begs to differ, and suggests a chance of longer spells of rain.

Dan corbett said a risk of hail and thunder in midlands, could be something interesting

[A.J]

Just got home from a day doing deliveries, and there was (and still is) a deluge from that stationary clump of showers just to the west of Brum....There's a lot of surface water on the M5/M6 interchange giving very poor driving conditions and 3 mile tailbacks north and southbound...There's no sferic activity (at least not according to strikestar) but, believe me, having been working near Wednesbury/Wallsall all afternoon, its an absolute downpour, and the NW radar does it no justice at all!

Edited June 9, 2009 by ajpoolshark

[simon1]

We have had a couple of sharp showers here in Walsall over the past couple of hours but no sferics.

[Costa Del Fal]

Just got home from a day doing deliveries, and there was (and still is) a deluge from that stationary clump of showers just to the west of Brum....There's a lot of surface water on the M5/M6 interchange giving very poor driving conditions and 3 mile tailbacks north and southbound...There's no sferic activity (at least not according to strikestar) but, believe me, having been working near Wednesbury/Wallsall all afternoon, its an absolute downpour, and the NW radar does it no justice at all!

Didnt have a downpour but had quite a long heavy shower and was heavier than the NW Radar suggested imo-usually its the opposite to this!

[Harry]

Well I am surprised - on the way home, sky turned very stormy looking, with what looked like rain streaks coming from the clouds. Very surprised to get home and see the radar returning nothing!

Even planes seemed to going around it...confusing!

[dogs32]

sferic appearing towards London

or is that a blip

Edited June 9, 2009 by dogs32

[Harry]

sferic appearing towards London

That doesn't surprise me - it did look increasingly thundery on the way home, and still does from here now. Though v little on radar...help!

[A.J]

Now I've chance to have a cup o'tea, spark up a cigarette and look at the radar, convection is rapidly occuring to the West and NW of Birmingham, heavy showers are popping up, some localised downpours in the offing for the next couple of hours.....surprising (due to lack of CAPE, heating and lift) but interesting all the same...A surprise storm for me?...who knows!

1755hrs radar..

and 30 minutes later radar...

Edited June 9, 2009 by ajpoolshark

[Costa Del Fal]

Now I've chance to have a cup o'tea, spark up a cigarette and look at the radar, convection is rapidly occuring to the West and NW of Birmingham, heavy showers are popping up, some localised downpours in the offing for the next couple of hours.....surprising (due to lack of CAPE, heating and lift) but interesting all the same...A surprise storm for me?...who knows!

1755hrs radar..

and 30 minutes later radar...

Indeed, quite interesting things going on right now. I dont think there will be storms but i think more heavy showers or maybe downpours could pop up to the NW of Birmingham and head the same way they are now.

[dogs32]

big cell just popped up towards my west

[Snowyowl9]

the bbc forecasts begs to differ, and suggests a chance of longer spells of rain.

It was showing a front,now a trough under a very slack low,if the clouds come from the east then theres half a chance of something more interesting here,a warm up we really want.

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/fax/fax24s.gif

[Costa Del Fal]

The NMM Model shows good enough Cape and LI over the West Midlands and Wales. Quite a lot of Showers too. TT Index very good, pretty much no convective inhibitation and fairly good Lapse rates. Perhaps a convergence zone over the East Wales, West Midlands border for a time.

[Harry]

What about for the South East?

That was rhetorical btw - death valley is more likely to encounter precipitation of interesting amounts than us!

[maidstone weather]

What about for the South East?

That was rhetorical btw - death valley is more likely to encounter precipitation of interesting amounts than us!

i think we know the answer to that already

[A.J]

Those are the cells I've been watching for most of the day but they're just moderate showers really. Tomorrw could be an interesting one, fairly ok CAPE values which according to the BBC will be enough to develop some sharp showers come tomorrow afternoon, accompanied by hail and in good old BBC weather speak, "the odd rumble of thunder".

I beg to differ mate.....these arent moderate showers...The radar, for some unknown reason, is not doing the rainfall rates any justice at all...I just took a quick drive to J11 of the M6 and its torrential, and no exaggaration

Tomorrow has plenty of potential as you posted..I'll be 'darn sarf' tomorrow somewhere near St Albans, so will be monitoring things down there rather than the West Midlands

[Andy Bown]

Well I am surprised - on the way home, sky turned very stormy looking, with what looked like rain streaks coming from the clouds. Very surprised to get home and see the radar returning nothing!

Even planes seemed to going around it...confusing!

It is quite possible for showers to form then decay in between radar slides, even the 5 min NW ones.

[Harry]

Dan Corbett can get knotted with all his splashes of blue paint, if all he can offer me is 'drizzle' bubbling up in the heat of the day, lol...not that I am suffering storm withdrawal symptoms!

If my luck so far in 2009 carries into next year, there's going to be plenty of disappointed chasers looking at me with daggers

If I am however duly compensated for the way I am being smacked by mother nature, expect an F5 and couple of F4s/F3s

Edited June 9, 2009 by Harry

[maidstone weather]

I think Darren Corbett said something about energy in the day may spark off some drizzle for the SE, so something to watch out for down there.

that's what the MetO forecast today wasn't it?

Ah well i don't mind the same stuff again

[Harry]

Dont forget, NATURE'S FURY, ITV1 in 30 mins!

[Nick F]

Dan Corbett can get knotted with all his splashes of blue paint, if all he can offer me is 'drizzle' bubbling up in the heat of the day, lol...not that I am suffering storm withdrawal symptoms!

If my luck so far in 2009 carries into next year, there's going to be plenty of disappointed chasers looking at me with daggers

If I am however duly compensated for the way I am being smacked by mother nature, expect an F5 and couple of F4s/F3s

Harry, how about you take a break from constantly looking and waiting for storms ... then maybe you will get less frustrated and then they may eventually come along!!That's what I do anyway ...

Keeping constant watch on the radar for the hope of a storm can lead to endless frustration.

[Harry]

Harry, how about you take a break from constantly looking and waiting for storms ... then maybe you will get less frustrated and then they may eventually come along!!That's what I do anyway ...

Keeping constant watch on the radar for the hope of a storm can lead to endless frustration.

Very true, Nick F. Nevertheless, in an average year I'd still be frustrated by now as May for as long as I can remember, has produced heavy showers and thunderstorms - at least one!

[loopydreamer]

it looked thundery earlier, but now it just looks dull and its just rainy drizzle outside!

hope things r a bit more exciting for us tomorrow

[maidstone weather]

Very true, Nick F. Nevertheless, in an average year I'd still be frustrated by now as May for as long as I can remember, has produced heavy showers and thunderstorms - at least one!

last year my first storm was 24th April - have not had one this year!

[Nick F]

Tomorrow, looks like SE Wales across to SW Midlands maybe favoured for thunderstorms to develop along a convergence zone running NE out of the Lower Severn Valley. This will be dependant on cloud clearance however. Showers likely to break out elsewhere across Midlands and Sern England away from South Coast which will probably stay dry ...

[Jane Louise]

Thanks Nick.

Hopefully I will see my first storm of the year tommorow! But I've been saying this everytime and nothing happens lol. It will probably be the cloud cover that ruins it here tommorow.But who knows!