Model Output Discussion

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Morning all

well im a little perplexed, models showing a typical summer set up, however the BBC weather guy Rob mcwhatever his surname is....gave a cryptic punt that someting better is on the way with this comment " summers not over yet" with a rye smile thrown in.

was he teasing or is there something he knows that we all missing, what ever it is be rest assured robs forecast worth keepin tuned to

LO

As I said above, I would keep an eye out for the 25th of July (and the following few days).

Personally, I dont think the 2m forecast for this period tallys with the pressure rise.

[Wynn D Woo]

The funny thing is, if you go to the reports thread, people are recording temps of 22-24oC.

I wasnt at home yesterday (I understand that the N/W was wet in the afternoon), but Wales and the midlands was largely dry after the mornings showers.

A heat wave is certainly not showing, but winds are light, rainfall tends to be heavy (Rob - regarding your recent comment about the ground being wet. Our garden doesnt seem to be over saturated ?), but short, and temps are around normal.

Overall, its quite pleasent weather. Lets not compare to 2006...it was an exceptional year. For me, this year is far better than the last two.

Quite agree, I like to read the comments from people who explain what the models are showing and why and it gets a bit frustrating having to skim through people moaning that it isnt med like weather for 3 months. As ever I find the models generally not worth bothering with beyond 3 days anyway - rainfall tends to be lower and temps higher in any case.

[Frank Trough]

i've noticed recently that there have been a few comments along the lines of "actually, it's not been that bad" which i suppose in reality it hasn't (last saturday aside in the south). However, i can confirm that it doesn't matter how sunny or dry it is the thing that is annoying me most is the windspeed! looking at the 00z it looks constantly windy. I cycle to work each day and try to go fishing at weekends and subsequently, wind strength is fairly important to me. There's something about a constant 20mph wind in the summer that really get's my goat. I suppose i should live somewhere more continental. IMO the warm, calm humid weather at the end of june was about as good as it gets.

also, i saw the BBC weather forecast for tomorrow earlier - seems the rain is moving through much earlier now i.e overnight (depending on where you live)? South coast looks dry by tomorrow morning, with perhaps the rain feeding back in during the afternoon? obviously the wind is going to be howling, though.

[TEITS]

Have to say what with the recession, swine flu, awful weather this is really turning out to be a crap summer!

Normally I try and put a positive spin on the models but after viewing the 0Zs I cannot find anything positive to say. The problem is we're stuck in a rut because HP remains supressed to the S and LP seems to be the dominant player.

The only positive in the models is the potential for storms because obviously with LP being close by the risk of storms will always be there.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

i've noticed recently that there have been a few comments along the lines of "actually, it's not been that bad" which i suppose in reality it hasn't (last saturday aside in the south). However, i can confirm that it doesn't matter how sunny or dry it is the thing that is annoying me most is the windspeed! looking at the 00z it looks constantly windy. I cycle to work each day and try to go fishing at weekends and subsequently, wind strength is fairly important to me. There's something about a constant 20mph wind in the summer that really get's my goat. I suppose i should live somewhere more continental. IMO the warm, calm humid weather at the end of june was about as good as it gets.

also, i saw the BBC weather forecast for tomorrow earlier - seems the rain is moving through much earlier now i.e overnight (depending on where you live)? South coast looks dry by tomorrow morning, with perhaps the rain feeding back in during the afternoon? obviously the wind is going to be howling, though.

Hi there.

A keen fisherman myself, and agree regarding wind speeds.

However, the Sunday just passed, both GFS and METO had wind speeds averaging around 10-14mph, with gusts (METO) upto 22-30mph. I was fishing all day, and would say that neither of those were achieved (i.e. much lighter).

If low pressure is about, I would expect naturally wind speeds to increase, but with the latest model forecasts, should high pressure take charge, we should be getting lighter wind speeds.

Even recently, the wind speeds have not been high at all (at least here).

Apparantley, winds can improve fishing (bites) so it wouldnt be a bad thing anyway. Rain also adds colour to the water, which also improves fishing conditions. So wind and rain is better (generally) for fishing, but not so good for sitting on the bank

[Frank Trough]

Hi there.

A keen fisherman myself, and agree regarding wind speeds.

However, the Sunday just passed, both GFS and METO had wind speeds averaging around 10-14mph, with gusts (METO) upto 22-30mph. I was fishing all day, and would say that neither of those were achieved (i.e. much lighter).

If low pressure is about, I would expect naturally wind speeds to increase, but with the latest model forecasts, should high pressure take charge, we should be getting lighter wind speeds.

Even recently, the wind speeds have not been high at all (at least here).

Apparantley, winds can improve fishing (bites) so it wouldnt be a bad thing anyway. Rain also adds colour to the water, which also improves fishing conditions. So wind and rain is better (generally) for fishing, but not so good for sitting on the bank

Hi Shiny_Bottom,

that really is a positive spin! rain is brilliant for the type of fishing i do (for mullet) but wind is dreadful - although you are right that it doesn't bother the fish it does bother me. There's no point trying to fish into anything above a 10mph wind with tiny floats and 4lb line!

it's definitely been windy in Hampshire everytime i've had the chance to go. And to be honest, i don't see an awful lot of high pressure on the 0z until FI - lets hope it changes!

*edit* - apart from Tuesday next week when it looks nice - when i'll be at work. Good to see the isobars tightening for next weekend though, when i won't be at work. Excellent stuff.

tight lines!

Edited July 16, 2009 by A horse called man

[Timmytour]

also, i saw the BBC weather forecast for tomorrow earlier - seems the rain is moving through much earlier now i.e overnight (depending on where you live)? South coast looks dry by tomorrow morning, with perhaps the rain feeding back in during the afternoon? obviously the wind is going to be howling, though.

I think this also provides the hope that some of us attach to the last week of July. For a few days this wind and rain was modelled to provide the southeast with a washout during friday and for example, provide little opportunity for play at Lords (good for me as my tickets are for the fifth day!). However, now it seems the worst of it will be gone by the morning and play at Lords will probably get underway on time.

Ok...it's not a change in what the models were predicting in terms of weather, but it is in terms of the timing. So equally we can hope that this will change what they start showing us in the next week or so, with the early arrival of the rain having much more impact that the flutter of a butterfly's wings

[Methuselah]

Am I imagining things, or have we got into a five-day reload cycle?

Edited July 16, 2009 by Pete Tattum

[swebby]

Morning all

well im a little perplexed, models showing a typical summer set up, however the BBC weather guy Rob mcwhatever his surname is....gave a cryptic punt that someting better is on the way with this comment " summers not over yet" with a rye smile thrown in.

was he teasing or is there something he knows that we all missing, what ever it is be rest assured robs forecast worth keepin tuned to

LO

Morning,

Yes, i also caught that forecast. It does look improved for the far south in about 7 days but there is no real indication of fantastic summer weather uk wide, at least not to the extent to back up his "hint". I wondered at the time if his comment may have any relation with what GP and chinomaniac were posting the other day about indications of more favourable positioning of the areas tropical convection? I would assume the beeb have access to a great deal more meto information/data than we do on the internet.

Cheers

s

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

There continues to be every suggestion that the present pattern will reload once more next week- much as I have suggested the last couple of days. After the upcoming low moves off into Scandinavia early next week, more developments look like occuring to the south west and another depression looks set to track across the country...and into Scandinavia. Meanwhile pressure stays high over Greenland. The heat that many on here want to occur continues to pulse NE'wards from southern europe through France and into central and eastern europe.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

There continues to be every suggestion that the present pattern will reload once more next week- much as I have suggested the last couple of days. After the upcoming low moves off into Scandinavia early next week, more developments look like occuring to the south west and another depression looks set to track across the country...and into Scandinavia. Meanwhile pressure stays high over Greenland. The heat that many on here want to occur continues to pulse NE'wards from southern europe through France and into central and eastern europe.

Yes, a dominant southerly tracking jet. This isn't a typical El Nino pattern...will that emerge? Will the jet move north?

BFTP

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Yes, a dominant southerly tracking jet. This isn't a typical El Nino pattern...will that emerge? Will the jet move north?

BFTP

Yes. does make you wonder that with a -PDO pattern, cold AMO, solar min etc, the atmosphere is going to be more pre-disposed (defaulted if you like) to nina like behaviour (such as we see) and that nino episodes are going to struggle to develop beyond weaker strength phases

[Methuselah]

Yes. does make you wonder that with a -PDO pattern, cold AMO, solar min etc, the atmosphere is going to be more pre-disposed (defaulted if you like) to nina like behaviour (such as we see) and that nino episodes are going to struggle to develop beyond weaker strength phases

Not so sure about that? But there's b***** all there for the hot squad!

[Glacier Point]

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html

Of late, we have seen the mean trough shift east which is attributable to a plunge in total angular momentum since late June driving a more Nina like pattern. One of the reasons why the jet has intensified (therefore preventing any trough development to our west) is that a mean positive (westerly) wind anomaly has been working its way through the sub-tropics. This has strengthened the Azores ridge but it is flat as a pancake due to a substantial -ve zonal wind anomaly over the pole (consistent with summer time low angular momentum conditions):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stra...ALL_NH_2009.gif

Herein lies the very tentative signs that the end July will feature some improvement.

The positive zonal wind anomaly is likely to propagate poleward as a result of the normal dispersal of winds and also a slight signal for pressure to fall over the North Pole as we head towards August.

I find this interesting as the reversal in polar index (AO) has seemed to happen during late July, if only for a short 7-10 days during the last few summers at least. This summer the AO has been solidly negative so the reversal in polarity should be for +AO conditions to prevail for a little while. Remember it was this time last year that we enjoyed our most settled spell of weather.

Latest stratospheric zonal mean data identifies that the mean easterly wind anomaly has reversed over the Pole which will lead to less support for blocking to our north in the 10-20 day horizon as the atmopshere upwells positive wind anomalies (AO index nuetralising and becoming positive):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stra...ALL_NH_2009.gif

GFS AO Ensembles are trending upwards from a very low base:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...ndex_ensm.shtml

This should allow the tropics to respond with more westerly wind flow addition although the magnitude of this is open to question and we may continue along a low angular momentum base state for some time yet.

A feature of the last few operational GFS runs has been for some reduction in heights to our north allowing the jet to be deflected further north and pressure to build over NW Europe although the ECM ensembles aren't backing this just yet.

So some very tentative signals that we may see a more settled phase late July into 1st week August. Whether this manifests itself into a longer shift or return back to the pattern for the summer so far is a case for ongoing monitoring of the tropics.

Yes, a dominant southerly tracking jet. This isn't a typical El Nino pattern...will that emerge? Will the jet move north?

BFTP

Not El Nino pattern at all - but very much consistent with low angular momentum.

Note however that we are seeing signs from both operational ECM and GFS for pressure to build in the western Atlantic as the jet becomes slower and more amplified t168+. The slab of polar air knocking around the Barents Sea is mirrored with a wedge of anomalously warm air moving out of Africa into the Med at the same time. ECM is very interesting as this helps to feed into the Azores ridge and bolster its movement poleward consistent with the mean zonal westerly wind anomaly being fluxed poleward (ridge development at mid latitudes).

Edited July 16, 2009 by Glacier Point

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes. does make you wonder that with a -PDO pattern, cold AMO, solar min etc, the atmosphere is going to be more pre-disposed (defaulted if you like) to nina like behaviour (such as we see) and that nino episodes are going to struggle to develop beyond weaker strength phases

I know this model discussion but have quick look at the AMO thread I created. Interesting.

I think the SSTs are playing their part here, that AZH has been and continues to be a non player folks. If we are IMO to get warmth it will be like the June set up. There doesn't look likely to be AZH or Euro HP developing to assist hot plumes or settled weather and send the jet north. So a Scandi HP IMO will be our best bet but no signs yet.

Stew, those cold SSTs in the Atlantic, do you think will hold against Atlantic ridge developing?

BFTP

Edited July 16, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I know this model discussion but have quick look at the AMO thread I created. Interesting.

I think the SSTs are playing their part here, that AZH has been and continues to be a non player folks. If we are IMO to get warmth it will be like the June set up. There doesn't look likely to be AZH or Euro HP developing to assist hot plumes or settled weather and send the jet north. So a Scandi HP IMO will be our best bet but no signs yet.

Stew, those cold SSTs in the Atlantic, do you think will hold against Atlantic ridge developing?

BFTP

Agree about a repeat of June set-up being the way back to a summer spell - if it is to happen And yes, the AMO thread is very interesting. A factor to watch and look for longer term influences.

Edited July 16, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[William of Walworth]

Not El Nino pattern at all - but very much consistent with low angular momentum.

Note however that we are seeing signs from both operational ECM and GFS for pressure to build in the western Atlantic as the jet becomes slower and more amplified t168+. The slab of polar air knocking around the Barents Sea is mirrored with a wedge of anomalously warm air moving out of Africa into the Med at the same time. ECM is very interesting as this helps to feed into the Azores ridge and bolster its movement poleward consistent with the mean zonal westerly wind anomaly being fluxed poleward (ridge development at mid latitudes).

Thanks for this GP. Your post provides about the only half-hopeful hints for the longer term (half-hopeful for Jet/Atlantic dislikers and summer preferrers anyway!) out of anyone's contributions since last night. Agreeing with other contributors as well though because I'm a realist -- almost all the short/medium term modelling offer little or no joy except for ducks for now ...

but there's b***** all there for the hot squad!

Indeed, my heat hopes have been comprehensively pushed back to August or at best to very very late July for now.

My new mental conditioning today is telling me to expect the worst for all of next week right into next weekend, most of the models showing the reload of LP next week that NSSC and others have been seeing, don't allow anything else but pessimism really.

Then, if we are spared the worst in the South after all coming up to next weekend, it will feel like a lucky escape ....

Still too soon to say for sure mind.

For me, i'm looking out to the period of around the 25th. Still some way out, but pressure rises with most members, and the ctrl run going for less of a pressure rise. It will feel rather warm if this happens. This has now been supported for a few days now, so definately something to watch.

Another rare straw to grasp for. Very much in the 'maybe' category though.

Edited July 16, 2009 by William of Walworth

[NorthantsSnow]

My eyes still firmly on rainfall for the next 48 hours. North East now looks most at risk. According to 06z data York could see 66mm (over 2 and a half inches) of rain in 6 hours.

[Snowyowl9]

Some nasty looking weather for the next week or so.

Looks like friday has turned into a very strong NW-ly now.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/brack0a.gif

As for later there is a light, this is what I wanted to see at the end of the month.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm2161.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn2161.png

[Eugene]

Signs of yesterdays early next week improvement has diminished this morning though still a chance of a drier day or two but temps not far off average, i think there is a sign for a calming down of the unsettled pattern late July into August but with the high situated to our southwest so a cool northwesterly flow but at least drier and more pleasant than tomorrows awfulness.

[William of Walworth]

Must say it feels strange to be in West Wales yet looking likely to be spared the very heaviest of the upcoming rainfall -- so often Wales and the West bear the brunt from intense Atlantic driven LP systems.

I hope the NE and other most-at-risk zones are spared extreme floods anyway.

As for later there is a light, this is what I wanted to see at the end of the month.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm2161.gif

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn2161.png

Nice FI candy there .... we can but dream that charts like that verify on the 25th or even before .....

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

But have a look at the Ensembles from the 06z...its been similar for a few days now (as mentioned above):

[mushymanrob]

Slightly dramatic.

As people say in winter, the models cannot be trusted beyond around t+78.

I think people expect too much from our summers, we have a very changeable climate and have already had some nice, warm, settled periods. People have to remember that this is the UK and not Nevada.

im not expecting nor want a 'nevada' style climate, what frustrates me is the ammount of rain we get summer after summer. (chris, the ground is wet for the time of year, but not sturated as such). julys are usually pretty dry, or any rain dries up pretty quickly, its been years since i had drought stressed grass in july. i should be mowing dry, not mowing wet.

ok charts cant be trusted beyond t+78, but settled warm weather doesnt appear suddenly as if by magic, and appart from next tuesdays one day wonder theres no sign, no hope atm for anything like 'summer'. ill not get my hopes up until the lrf/ers on here start to suggest thing are going the right way, until then ill caryy on being a pesimist!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

My eyes still firmly on rainfall for the next 48 hours. North East now looks most at risk. According to 06z data York could see 66mm (over 2 and a half inches) of rain in 6 hours.

My old stomping ground locality saw about 90mm of rain in three hours last Tuesday morning (7th) - although that doesn't detract from the risks posed to north eastern areas as posed by the models at present.

Next weeks low will have to be watched for its development and track regarding another rain event - ECM for eg brings a farily deep summer low across the centre of the UK on its way towards Scandinavia

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

The accum. precip on the hi-res model for the next 48 hours paints a wet picture (Look at Switzerland!)