Model Output Discussion

[edveasey]

Looking at the 00 run and GFS kept the HP firmly in place of Greenland, with the wet and cool consequences for us, however this seems to be a bit of a freak run and not inkeeping with the trend of the models over the past few days and it's good to see the 06 run revert back to trend of developing LP over Greenland allowing the Azores high to move northwards and influence our weather.

I'm now really betting on some lovely weather after the 26th, doesn't look too hot either.

Edited July 17, 2009 by edveasey

[Methuselah]

To be selfish, I quite like the 06Z run...There could be another four-or-five thunder-days in there, for me??

[J07]

it would seem a decade or more of the hot hot beach weather is now taking a backseat.

but its not all bad because it would seem a more average climate could be on the cards for awhile.

so killer heatwaves not likely but certainly does not rule out nice warm sunny weather which will be back im sure

I think this is reading too much into short/medium range model outputs. Britain never really had a "decade or more" of "hot hot beach weather". It was usually a few days speckled throughout occasional summers.

[mushymanrob]

Is it me or are the people that are writing off Summer using FI charts, the same ones that constantly say that you can't trust anything past T96 when snow is shown in winter?

.... because the type of synoptics us 'summer' fans require to get something reasonable dont just happen overnight. the last hot spell for example took several weeks to build, even before it was being shown on any chart. until the 'upstream' patterns are in place (and they are not) then we are stuck in this cool, wet regime for some time. IF the upstream patterns (sorry for being untechnical, im refering to the mjo and gwo etc of which my understanding is very poor) arnt progressing towards a more favourable position within the next 2 (short) weeks, then 'writing off summer' is looking like a fair bet.

snow in winter is a different matter, its far easier to get summer heat then winter snow as snow relies on more factors then just temperature.

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

Solid model agreement for at least another week featuring a long wave trough from Scandinavia into the eastern atlantic/north western UK. Heights continue over Greenland in the reliable time period as well. Some sunshine, but lots of showers, thundery downpours and longer outbreaks of rain for all - perhaps most heaviest and frequent in the north and west next week . Generally average temps - cool in persistent rain.

Much of what we have seen, we keep, basically.

[Snowyowl9]

Looks like a below average July is on the cards for temps. After the hot start is a large turnaround looking at todays GFS runs,not ECM so much which does bring some hope of something warmer dryer late on,GFS does also bring the azores high in but a much cooler NW-ly.

If that happens we`d have to go back to the mid 80`s for more than 3 in a row,only these summers are not as cold as those but they are much wetter.

[William of Walworth]

Looking at the 00 run and GFS kept the HP firmly in place of Greenland, with the wet and cool consequences for us, however this seems to be a bit of a freak run and not inkeeping with the trend of the models over the past few days and it's good to see the 06 run revert back to trend of developing LP over Greenland allowing the Azores high to move northwards and influence our weather.

I'm now really betting on some lovely weather after the 26th, doesn't look too hot either.

You can scarcely imagine how extremely frustrating and annoying that will be, for those of us praying for a non-washout weekend over the 24th, 25th and 26th!

Still, IMO there still remain faint (admittedly fainter than before) grounds for some hope that conditions in the South will become slightly more benign -- no more than slightly -- in time for next weekend.

[Eugene]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1621.png

GFS 12Z briging potential very cool cyclonic northerly for next weekend, i really would hold off of any bets of a nice weekend come July 25th/26th, this pattern looks locked on to me for the foreseeable future, sorry for being on a downer but it's how i see it.

Any signs of an improvement are tentative at best for two weeks time.

[The PIT]

Horror of a GFS run. Reload and almost repeat for next weekend in FI land. In deep FI the a charts that would have got the forum in meltdown if it was winter. I wonder what the ECM will show.

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

I've found something positive about the models!

If charts like this hold out for the next 5 months:

We might get a decent northerly in winter

[Costa Del Fal]

If anyone can say anything good or interesting in the upcoming weather from the charts your the bravest person in the world. This July is a write off-AGAIN.

BBQ Summer? Yeah right.

[PB22]

Model output certainly isn't encouraging for those wanting warmth and fine, sunny weather, but from a weather enthusiasts point of view, its an exciting outlook with so much going on. Fascinating times!

[North-Easterly Blast]

Looks like a below average July is on the cards for temps. After the hot start is a large turnaround looking at todays GFS runs,not ECM so much which does bring some hope of something warmer dryer late on,GFS does also bring the azores high in but a much cooler NW-ly.

If that happens we`d have to go back to the mid 80`s for more than 3 in a row,only these summers are not as cold as those but they are much wetter.

Last July was not cool, it was still a shade above the 1961-90 average, at 16.2*C. Well, many quote last summer as being poor, but it definitely wasn't cool by any means, it was still slightly above the 1961-90 mean. Summer 2007 was just marginally under average, but we have to go back to 1993 and before that to 1985-1988 for proper cool summers.

[Snowyowl9]

Last year was slightly below the 71-00 average though.

It was also cooler in the west to the east or the CET zone,and the SW was about 1c below average if I remember.

As for the charts whats GFS showing here,and wheres the jet off to.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn1441.png

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn14414.png

Still looks more likely a below average month as even ECM shows a NW-ly but the azores high is still coming so thats something.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Recm2161.gif

Edited July 17, 2009 by Snowyowl9

[ANYWEATHER]

Little comfort from the models for anything summer like , ecm has gone with the gfs showing another low this time next week over the top of the uk, a rather subtle change from the ooz ecm. Im certainly not writing Summer off at the moment but with charts like this its very hard to be optimistic about the synoptics! Im sure in the coming week there will be favourable weather at some point ,somewhere, and it will feel very nice in any sunshine. but general theme ....VERY UNSETTLED!!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

There is indeed a lot of weather coming up, but from what I can see, the outlook is veering towards "cool dull and wet" rather than "fairly warm with sunshine showers and storms", with a southerly tracking jet really powering up and sending frontal rain over to the UK. Not particularly normal UK weather, in the sense that it looks likely to continue being particularly wet.

Could be some thunderstorms about in East Anglia again on Sunday afternoon, then the rain bands pile into the UK around midweek- although it is worth noting that some areas may see thundery activity in association with the rain belts as well as the brighter showery weather in between, as this is no standard July 1988 type fare.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Last July was not cool, it was still a shade above the 1961-90 average, at 16.2*C. Well, many quote last summer as being poor, but it definitely wasn't cool by any means, it was still slightly above the 1961-90 mean. Summer 2007 was just marginally under average, but we have to go back to 1993 and before that to 1985-1988 for proper cool summers.

I must admit to a slight frustration at being constantly quoted the 30 year CET figures to prove 'things aren't that bad'. I would be more prepared to accept them if there was a CET for 'useful hours' only i.e. a daily CET for the hours of, say, 8.00 am to 9.00 pm, because I'm pretty sure that last year and the year before would have been much 'colder' (in CET terms) if the constant cloud hadn't kept night-time temperatures relatively high. And frankly, if it's 1-2C above average at 03.00 am who cares ???

[damianslaw]

The charts are not pleasing to the eye at present to those wanting some prolonged settled warm sunny conditions, they shout the complete opposite for the foreseeable future i.e. predominantly unsettled cloudy and rather cool for the time of year..

Signs of the azores high perhaps beginning to show its presence felt before the months end, however, it could easily just do us no favours by ridging NW in situ allowing the atlantic and associated trough to run around it bringing constant unsettled conditions.. the azores high I feel is our only hope at the moment for anything more settled in the future and it will probably take until the very months end for it to really show its hand, in the meantime the jet looks too strong to deliver anything but very short lived bursts of brighter drier weather inbetween the showers and frontal rain systems with the south east only really benefitting..

Grim outlook..

[johnholmes]

lrf link-the correct one is below

http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?s...p;#entry1567062

no charts until I get back Sunday evening as in a rush

[snowingman]

Morning

the general rubbish theme is now set in stone. Cool north/north westerlies are looking to predominate for forseable future, So no heat wave.

If this was winter... just imagine!! seriously bad summer charts, must put those shorts away.. wore them 3 times in ealy july

[geoffw]

this makes me damn right cross about the MO forecast! can glacier point give us any optimism, hope at all please

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Bear with me as I post charts.

ECM showing signs IMO of what we should be looking out for. There is a pressure pattern shift where note how pressure tries to rise over the North Sea into Scandi and ends up showing us an Arctic HP to our NE in FI.

Now these changes are IMO what to look out for. Our summer has not and won't be AZH influenced or controlled. Nor will we have a Euro HP. HP to our NE like in June is what to look out for and the signs are beginning to show with stalled LP to our W/SW.

I know its FI BUT we have no change for a week yet. 1st chart, note the ridge of HP into North Sea and top of page the Arctic HP...demonstrating the GHP breakdown [which we need].

Now note the finger of 1020 pressure down the North Sea

LP stalled and HP from North and ridge from south trying to merge.

This isn't to say that this is how it WILL pan out but I believe the models are picking up on the signal for change into a warm pattern. My punt is for HP to out NE [scandi to build] with an East or even SE flow at times.....timescale? Beginning Aug

BFTP

Edited July 18, 2009 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Hi BFTP.

This was what i've been watching for the past few days.

Ensembles have been showing a pressure rise around the 24th, fully kicking in around the 26/27th. The quick drop in pressure afterwards originally indicated by the GFS a few days ago, is now being postponed somewhat.

Key indicator is that pressure is around, and possibilities of something warmer around the dates suggested.

[Glacier Point]

this makes me damn right cross about the MO forecast! can glacier point give us any optimism, hope at all please

Tropical convection has transferred eastwards towards the Indo-Pacific boundary although there is sporadic convection still over the Indian Ocean.

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/olr/olr.anom.gif

This should start to induce a more neutral ENSO type signal to the overall global circulation although the extratropics are still showing a Nina type circulation with mean easterly wind zonal anomalies present in both hemipsheres. Total angular momentum is still below average and the GWO is stuck around phase 2:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/reanaly...m.sig.90day.gif

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/gcm/gwo_40d.gif

We are however seeing some poleward fluxing of mean westerly wind anomalies which is pumping the sub-tropical ridges and reducing heights over Greenland. NWP is now starting to pick up on this allowing the ridges (and the jetstream) to shift northward although with the overall circulation still Nina-like heights remain low over Scandinavia.

A weak ridge moving over southern parts looks the call for the last week of July although remaining unsettled further north. Thereafter, if we see continued eastward migration of tropical convection and the global circulation starts to co-operate with this, there would be grounds for thinking the synoptic evolution would be for a stalling trough to our west although we have a long way to recoup the 'losses' inflicted by the downward correction in angular momentum which occured towards the end June onwards.

So key messsage, steady amelioration of the pattern next weekend onwards, improving slightly thereafter but not looking excessively warm or totally settled throughout the the next 2-3 weeks.

Edited July 18, 2009 by Glacier Point

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Hi BFTP.

This was what i've been watching for the past few days.

Ensembles have been showing a pressure rise around the 24th, fully kicking in around the 26/27th. The quick drop in pressure afterwards originally indicated by the GFS a few days ago, is now being postponed somewhat.

Key indicator is that pressure is around, and possibilities of something warmer around the dates suggested.

The pattern/phase we are in calls for slow time gradual changes....so we get decent length spells of each set up. Unfortunate for heat lovers at present.

BFTP