Model Output Discussion

[Frosty.]

Fine weather will be restricted to the odd day here and there during the next 7-10 days, tuesday represents a suckers gap with a brief respite from this awful weather but overall it looks a very unsettled period nationwide with either showers or prolonged rain. The driest and warmest weather will again be reserved for the south east but even those areas will see rain at times. The GFS 00z indicates an improvement just before the end of the month and start of August as pressure rises to the north east but then followed by yet more unsettled conditions so this summer appears to be on a downward slide after a very promising start...disappointing in my view.

[Gavin P]

Bear with me as I post charts.

ECM showing signs IMO of what we should be looking out for. There is a pressure pattern shift where note how pressure tries to rise over the North Sea into Scandi and ends up showing us an Arctic HP to our NE in FI.

Now these changes are IMO what to look out for. Our summer has not and won't be AZH influenced or controlled. Nor will we have a Euro HP. HP to our NE like in June is what to look out for and the signs are beginning to show with stalled LP to our W/SW.

I know its FI BUT we have no change for a week yet. 1st chart, note the ridge of HP into North Sea and top of page the Arctic HP...demonstrating the GHP breakdown [which we need].

Now note the finger of 1020 pressure down the North Sea

LP stalled and HP from North and ridge from south trying to merge.

This isn't to say that this is how it WILL pan out but I believe the models are picking up on the signal for change into a warm pattern. My punt is for HP to out NE [scandi to build] with an East or even SE flow at times.....timescale? Beginning Aug

BFTP

I definately think Scandi and perhaps by September, even Iceland blocking will be the driver over the next two or three months. The problem though, is that I don't think the southerly tracking jet is ever really going to go away. So what would normally be a pretty decent (and fairly typical for a developing El Nino) late summer/early autumn pattern with warm, dry east or south-easterly winds, may actually be a very wet pattern for England and Wales. I've got a suspicion we could have a September the like of which we've not seen since perhaps 1994? However, I do agree we should hopefully get at least a week or so of dry and warm conditions early August....

Edited July 18, 2009 by Gavin P

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_carte...de=0&mode=2

well looking at that its Rain all the way to 25 th of july !!!! is our summer over already i ask my self!!!

[Cheese Rice]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_carte...de=0&mode=2

well looking at that its Rain all the way to 25 th of july !!!! is our summer over already i ask my self!!!

Theres always september

[tinybill]

Theres always September

will be keeping an eye on the weather down there by the end of the week what clothes to take shorts , or flipper's!!

it better stop lol I'm oh holiday in a weeks time and Sunday I'm off to the iow for a week for some rest!!

[ribster]

Theres always september

For Autumn yes, days are rather shorter than they are now by then.

[Snowyowl9]

Summer 2007 was just marginally under average, but we have to go back to 1993 and before that to 1985-1988 for proper cool summers.

As for 2007

Now if you went by July to september 2007 would come as proper cool as those years,extended summer holiday.

1986...40.9c

1993...42.2c

1988...43.1c

2007...44.4c

1987...45.1c

1985...45.4c

As for the GFS are these the July pattern we`re expected to see from now on,because thats what I think with a displaced summer jet,that`ll cause controversy the sun must the cause of this.

http://91.121.93.17/pics/Rtavn2161.png

[chapmanslade]

Seems to be more and more agreement on high pressure developing end of next week. Just need that stalled low a bit further west this week to get some higher 850's over the UK. I feel a change in pattern coming on as GFS has been on to it for a while now.

[Glacier Point]

Starting to get a little interested.....

heights falling in the north Atlantic across NWP at t144, convection developing around the dateline in the Pacific...

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/m...m/OLR/m.3d.html

[ANYWEATHER]

"PERHAPS " a change of weather!

[Alex95]

Yes, ECM FI very nice indeed :o Pity it's FI, though at +168 the improvement is underway. I reckon a decent August COULD be on the cards, but that is purely guesswork. More likely is that the last few days of July/First week of ugust will be good. Funny how the best weather comes at the end/start of each month this year

[MR EXTREMES]

Starting to get a little interested.....

heights falling in the north Atlantic across NWP at t144, convection developing around the dateline in the Pacific...

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/m...m/OLR/m.3d.html

just wondering what you mean starting to get intresting?

cheers

[Thundery wintry showers]

I guess it suggests increased chances of a displaced high settling over north-western Europe?

[MP-R]

I guess it suggests increased chances of a displaced high settling over north-western Europe?

It certainly looks as though the Azores High is trying to exert its influence over the UK by next weekend. Obviously this can change nearer the time but it's certainly a bit more promising than what we have at present.

[Derp Patrol]

Oh please... I have been waiting 2 weeks for at least some sunny weather..even sunny with average temps would be nice but for the past week here it has been cloudy and windy with showers almost everyday and temps below average hitting 21C at best.

I don't mind if there is not extreme heat, 25C with blazing sunshine will do me perfectly

[MR EXTREMES]

It certainly looks as though the Azores High is trying to exert its influence over the UK by next weekend. Obviously this can change nearer the time but it's certainly a bit more promising than what we have at present.

well the fax dont look like any azores high and to be honest i really cant see this type of high taking hold.

but a scandi high could be possible but not for awhile yet i dont think or even a european high B) .

Edited July 18, 2009 by badboy657

[I can't believe it's not better]

Tiny gradual improvements manifest on the ECMWF I think. (ECMWF computers are so powerful they actually lend out half their computer processing capacity for other non-weather related projects! B) - no really, I did read this somewhere. )

But, before that, not looking so good if your growing hay. Rice on the other hand...

http://www.ecmwf.int/about/computers.html

Edited July 19, 2009 by I can't believe it's not better

[Eugene]

ECM 12Z may be good but the GFS ensembles are indicating it remaining unsettled and cool, getting even cooler in FI, until we see model agreement within a reliable timeframe i really wouldn't pin too many hopes on ECM.

Not even one person mentioned last nights GFS runs or ensembles, i mean lets look at the overall picture, picking out one run will does us all no good at all, just lead us to be disappointed and anybody who reads this thread to get a general idea of what the weather might be like for an event in over a weeks time, the week ahead is looking very unsettled.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png

[ANYWEATHER]

Well the gfs keeps the unsettled weather right to the end of the month??? B)

[tinybill]

well all i say looking at the over night models our farmers should start growing rice fields like some one else just said they are so bad ,!!!

[tinybill]

http://www.meteox.com/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-...;soort=satradar

looking at that some places already will be in for a very wet day

http://www.eyeball-surfcheck.co.uk/sites/a...eo-westward.php

just looked at the cam at westward hoo its looking very wet already

http://ows-public.sembach.af.mil/index.cfm...STANDARD_12.gif

thunder storms expected most places in the uk

Edited July 19, 2009 by tinybill

[ANYWEATHER]

It looks as though the ecm is now made a turn around and backing the gfs...in short still a very unsettled outlook! B)

[mushymanrob]

Theres always september

For Autumn yes, days are rather shorter than they are now by then.

a summery september is about as much use as a snow event in april. out of season to fully enjoy its effects. as bottesford said, what use is it if after a day in the office looking out at the sun, you get home to a cool dark evening? of course its pleasant, but the moment has passed, my garden is in full flower NOW.

hints of some shift towards something more settled/sunny next weekend. both the ecm and gfs has some sort of calming down , albeit atm transitory. we really need to see something positive upstream now if anything is to be rescued this summer... theres still time, but its fast running out.

[Weather-history]

A poor chart for July

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

[MR EXTREMES]

yep yep yep bbq what?

all i can say is they need to scrap the seasonal outlook its been wrong wrong wrong yes i have a stutter lol.

but i will say most other weather sites have been more accurate.

but overall i agree its looking a little gloomy for awhile but its not uncommon for models to throw a wobbley whilst they get some firmer data,

so changing model outputs are very common.

and i think gp has a different idear from what some feel will happen.

even if from the end of july to september was warm and sunny,

then i still would not shout well done to the met o bbq summer,

its been like a stalemate just goes to show how unpredictable.

still pressure will build but i wonder when and will it stay for awhile? B)