Model Output Discussion

[turna]

I'm starting to get a little nervey about the projected rainfall on friday. Looking at the models there seems strong simularities to the 2007 setup. Mabe someone can dig out the rainfall and pressure charts for comparison (Mr Data!) One can't help but think of the floods in 2007 round here, I got trapped in Sheffield for 10 hours that faithful day and nearly lost my van on the Wicker and my life! :huh:

I agree, however the water table is much lower this time than in 2007. up to two weeks ago we hadnt had any appreciable rainfall for 7 weeks. i think it will take an awful lot for a repeat of 2007 - hope not all the same.

[ANYWEATHER]

My take on the rainfall Fri/Sat the red stripes seeing the heavist rain :lol: :lol: :lol: of course potential for lots of change! :lol: :huh: :o

Edited July 15, 2009 by ANYWEATHER

[Tucco]

Eastern Scotland and NE England looks to have persistant rainfall well into the weekend the largest rainfall totals should be in this area.

ECM rainfall.

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkom...715_1200_42.png

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkom...715_1200_48.png

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkom...715_1200_54.png

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkom...715_1200_60.png

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkom...715_1200_66.png

Low moves back into Scotland on Sunday

http://en.vedur.is/photos/atlant_evr_urkom...715_1200_96.png

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

Edited July 15, 2009 by Tucco

[fine wine]

I agree, however the water table is much lower this time than in 2007. up to two weeks ago we hadnt had any appreciable rainfall for 7 weeks. i think it will take an awful lot for a repeat of 2007 - hope not all the same.

I agree, we have had virtulally no rain here for 12 weeks with just 8mm this month. Its been very sunny and mostly warm with some breezy days as well just to dry out any rain that has fallen. It really is bone dry here. I for one cannot wait to see some apprciable rainfall down here.

[Scorcher]

My take on the rainfall Fri/Sat the red stripes seeing the heavist rain :lol: :lol: :lol: of course potential fopr lots of change! :lol: :huh: :o

Could be bad news for York if this is correct, it is notoriously prone to flooding due to the River Ouse but I agree with turna, the water table is definitely lower than it was in 2007, especially in the east of England, so fingers crossed that there won't be any flooding.

[bluearmy]

naeffs 12z keeps the jet going across the atlantic out to T384. until we start to see this losing its definition at such a long range, i cant see anything to be optimistic about.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cart...ode=2&map=1

[mountain shadow]

Could be bad news for York if this is correct, it is notoriously prone to flooding due to the River Ouse but I agree with turna, the water table is definitely lower than it was in 2007, especially in the east of England, so fingers crossed that there won't be any flooding.

Whilst a lower water table does of course reduce the likliehood of flooding, if the rain was heavy and persistent enough falling onto a river valley with large hills either side, the run off rates would overwhelm the grounds capacity to absorb the rain, like Boscastle a few years back.

With a potential for 100mm Thursday into Friday, I expect somewhere will get hit hard, perhaps time for a new thread to discuss this unseasonal and rare low pressure system?

[kold weather]

I'd watch very closely in the south, the front comes up overnight on Thursday from the south, whilst at the same time the low system develops along the front and actually start to briefly rapidly strengthens and thats going to really help strengthen the frontal system quite a lot. This area were the front strengthens should hold for quite a while and so expect it to head north.

Rainfall amounts between 20-40mm in the south seems to be reasonable, and just as much were the front keeps its strength.

[damianslaw]

Until the jet decides to buckle from its current southerly trajectory the outlook will remain a very unsettled one indeed.

Pleased to the BBC showing the modelling of the jet in recent forecasts, not often they do this. Rob McCellwe is usually very sure of himself didn't in my opinion seem very convincing this evening when it stated 'don't worry summer will return'.. like all of us no-one can give with any real assurance when.

I'm not expecting a sudden pattern change in the days to come, once we get into August and we have an active jet like present it can remain locked into position, lets hope it decides to transfer northwards again.. then again lets not as this would mean a return to the dreaded south westerlies which as we know can be the most stubborn of all airstreams to loosen its grip..

[Don]

It does seem that this Summer is following the trend of the last two with a southerly tracking jet, although it has been rather better. Lets hope the jet moves in time for August, to give us a chance of seeing some more prolonged settled weather.

[SizzlingHeat]

im leaving this country next summer its so sh**

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

The NW forecast for Hartlepool says there will be 95mm of rain on Friday and another 37mm on Saturday! If this event comes off anything like forecast there could some pretty massive rain totals!

im leaving this country next summer its so sh**

Thanks for that in-depth look at the models :lol:

[Typhoon John]

I'm looking forward to this rain, I'm always up for extreme weather events.

I notice the models still keep the heaviest rain in the North Sea as it moves through the North East although it's obviously still going to be very wet. But I wouldn't be surprised to see it back a little bit further West and hit us head on. Even so I think the flooding risk in my area will still be minimal.

[RichardW2]

Got to laugh at how we have a nice warm and sunny spring then come to July and it changes to very cold, overcast and suddenly forecasts of torrential and prolonged rainfall. Apart from the first week it will end up being a repeat of July 2007.

Forecasts of 13/14c maximum temperatures on 18th and 19th. Joke? Unfortunately not. Most places below the 50th parallel don't even have night time lows that cold in summer. Stupid England, crap and I can't wait to leave it for good some time in the next few years.

Edited July 16, 2009 by RichardW2

[Tucco]

GFS 00Z produces a very wet spell of weather this weekend for NE England And Scotland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs96sum.gif

Pulse of heavy rain for SE appears reduced but in enhances over North England before the more prolonged rain sets in.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs213.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs303.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs333.gif

This op run was a wet outlier in some parts.

Fax

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0.gif

Remains very unsettled

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.png

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

[peterf]

the ground still hasn't dried up from a fortnight ago.could do without the comming rain :lol:

[Tucco]

the ground still hasn't dried up from a fortnight ago.could do without the comming rain :lol:

Same here ground wet for time of year.

Fax

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax36s.gif

UKMO apears to want to move Low away from UK faster than GFS, less chance of the prolonged rain shown GFS which itself was outlier in regards rainfall for NE on Saturday.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

Edited July 16, 2009 by Tucco

[mushymanrob]

the ecm is the pick of the bunch this morning, which by tuesday holds the low further west into biscay and builds the euro high... but alas this looks like a temporary set up as the atlantic wins out yet again :lol:

the gfs in fi holds no hope of any 'summer' with the all too familiar southerly tracking jet....

[Typhoon John]

Some subtle changes this morning around the rain for the North East on the GFS. The duration has increased but I would say overall it's less intense. Even so it shows higher rainfall totals than it did last night.

I notice that the UKMO and therefore the BBC are keeping the heaviest rain in the North Sea.

[snowingman]

*** WARNING WARNING ********

Don't look at the models this morning..... they paint the worst summr picture imaginable!

Temperatures: About 3 C below normal for the next 2 weeks

Sunshine: Difficult but we are looking at <50% of average

Winds: More like late October, from N/NE, extremely strong for time of year!! goodbye Plants!

Rainfall: Some places receving>4 inches in next 2 weeks

Where are we? Britain of course and when, Middle of July

Global warming.. what a load of tosh!

[The PIT]

*** WARNING WARNING ********

Don't look at the models this morning..... they paint the worst summr picture imaginable!

Temperatures: About 3 C below normal for the next 2 weeks

Sunshine: Difficult but we are looking at <50% of average

Winds: More like late October, from N/NE, extremely strong for time of year!! goodbye Plants!

Rainfall: Some places receving>4 inches in next 2 weeks

Where are we? Britain of course and when, Middle of July

Global warming.. what a load of tosh!

Aaaarrrrrrrrrrrghhhh summer is over.

We do seem to be stuck in a rut don't we. Looking unsettled all the way through not even a tantalizing heatwave in FI to talk about. Anyway the ducks are happy.

[Radiating Dendrite]

*** WARNING WARNING ********

Don't look at the models this morning..... they paint the worst summr picture imaginable!

Temperatures: About 3 C below normal for the next 2 weeks

Sunshine: Difficult but we are looking at <50% of average

Winds: More like late October, from N/NE, extremely strong for time of year!! goodbye Plants!

Rainfall: Some places receving>4 inches in next 2 weeks

Where are we? Britain of course and when, Middle of July

Global warming.. what a load of tosh!

Slightly dramatic.

As people say in winter, the models cannot be trusted beyond around t+78.

I think people expect too much from our summers, we have a very changeable climate and have already had some nice, warm, settled periods. People have to remember that this is the UK and not Nevada.

[Bottesford]

Although I do indeed agree with you that the outlook is very poor for high summer - lets keep the complaining to the whining thread and this thread entirely devoted to the model output.

Cheers!

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

The funny thing is, if you go to the reports thread, people are recording temps of 22-24oC.

I wasnt at home yesterday (I understand that the N/W was wet in the afternoon), but Wales and the midlands was largely dry after the mornings showers.

A heat wave is certainly not showing, but winds are light, rainfall tends to be heavy (Rob - regarding your recent comment about the ground being wet. Our garden doesnt seem to be over saturated ?), but short, and temps are around normal.

Overall, its quite pleasent weather. Lets not compare to 2006...it was an exceptional year. For me, this year is far better than the last two.

The models are of course indicating a drop in temperature, but this is in relation to the arrival of a low pressure. Typically, temps would drop somewhat. Neither a low pressure or this drop in temp associated with the low, and not uncommon in summer.

For me, i'm looking out to the period of around the 25th. Still some way out, but pressure rises with most members, and the ctrl run going for less of a pressure rise. It will feel rather warm if this happens. This has now been supported for a few days now, so definately something to watch.

For me, the GEFS has been under predicting the max temps at the moment, so if this period pans out, it could be a return to something more akin to that that those are looking for.

[Lincs Observation]

Morning all

well im a little perplexed, models showing a typical summer set up, however the BBC weather guy Rob mcwhatever his surname is....gave a cryptic punt that someting better is on the way with this comment " summers not over yet" with a rye smile thrown in.

was he teasing or is there something he knows that we all missing, what ever it is be rest assured robs forecast worth keepin tuned to

LO