Friday 13th / Sat 14th Storms

[Marcus_surfer]

Breeze slightly picked up here a bit, but it was very calm this morning. Heavy rain has set in now

[dogs32]

I thought I was seeing things when I read this from Torro

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 80mph; hail to 15mm diameter; CG lightning

In addition, a chance exists for a few tornadoes, perhaps strong. This risk is mainly for central and southern England and Wales.

The purple area on the WATCH map is the region deemed most at risk from severe winds - a dangerous situation as inland gusts this high are rare in southern Britain.

Edited November 13, 2009 by dogs32

[lfcdude]

We have RACY - Rapid Cyclogensis:

From satrep (hover your mouse over Inst OCCL) http://www.knmi.nl/d...91113_1200.html

Sounds fun really would love to see a tornado but hope der is one in a field lol

Edited November 13, 2009 by lfcdude

[Mondy]

Fitzroy, issued on Friday 13 November 2009 at 1001

Southwesterly severe gale force 9, increasing violent storm force 11 soon

[Duane S.]

I thought I was seeing things when I read this from Torro

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 80mph; hail to 15mm diameter; CG lightning

In addition, a chance exists for a few tornadoes, perhaps strong. This risk is mainly for central and southern England and Wales.

The purple area on the WATCH map is the region deemed most at risk from severe winds - a dangerous situation as inland gusts this high are rare in southern Britain.

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

[PeterDoswell]

I would not class this as hype at all . Let us see the results before you class this as hype . I would class myself as level headed . I have been a member of this site for six years . Inland wind speeds of 75mph are what make this system so very very different . Even TORRO have issued warnings of Tornadoes with the south coast being most at risk accompanied by 15mm Hail . Lets wait to see what the next 24 hours bring . It is better to be forewarned of these events which are incredibly dangerous than to assume they are " hyped up " . It is easy enough to criticise the met office when they dont warn . When they do you complain it is hype . So who is level headed here the people being cautious or those laughing off the warnings as hype? Daytime inland wind gusts of 75mph are likely to kill several people before tomorrow evening .

[Harry]

Anyone else tracking that very narrow but intense line of precip across S England at present?

Edited November 13, 2009 by Harry

[dogs32]

Anyone else tracking that very narrow but intense line of precip across S England at present?

yes it as expanded as the morning as gone by..

The rain also out to the West as now intensified

[Duane S.]

Certainly shaping up to be an interesting 24 hours.

This one could be the real deal. Got oodles of potential. I don't buy into all this 'let's hope its not too destructive' nonsense. I want to see a monster storm hit us, extreme weather is so rare in this country that when a chance of some crops up I also have my fingers crossed for it to happen. Could be regretting those words early tomorrow morning though as I plan to head off to Portland for high tide at 4:30am!

Currently raining hard with little wind ,the calm before the storm...

[Mondy]

You'll see from my profile that I'm into North Atlantic winter storms more than any other type of weather.

Watching these systems pound western and northern Scotland year on year is always interesting, especially when you watch these beasts develop as they come off Nova Scotia/Newfoundland and rapidly form into a monster of circa 950mb as the cross the ocean.

This system to the SW of the UK, to me, is now a developing monster. I think this is worse than actually being forecast. The initial pressure of this forming low yesterday was above 1000mb - it is now 973mb - 27mb drop in under 24 hours is classed as bombogensis (American term, which I know some forecasters stuck in their ways do not like - google it)and the fact we have RACY (Rapid Cyclogenisis) backs up the pressure drop.

If this was winding up to hit my part of the world (central Scotland) I'd be a little concerned now - but, it will arrive much further south into populated areas - it's worth remembering to tidy up any possible flying objects in your garden or alert neighbours of the same. This will take many by surprise. Unless, it weakens dramatically or wobbles northwards..

[Herefordweather]

We've had drizzle/light rain all morning in Hereford. Now becoming heavier and more persistant. Not looking good as we had nearly an inch yesterday and it doesn't take a lot more to cause problems around here.

[dogs32]

met office latest update

South West England:

Cornwall & Isles of Scilly

Devon

Dorset

Plymouth

Somerset

Torbay

Heavy Rain 1400 Fri 13 2359 Fri 13

An area of heavy rain will move northwards across southwestern England during the day and will give accumulations of 20 to 40 mm, with over 60 mm falling locally on the higher ground. In addition to the rain it will become very windy later in the day, with southerly gales giving gusts to 60 to 70 mph in exposed areas.

The public are advised to take extra care and refer to the 'Highways Agency' for further advice on traffic disruption on motorways and trunk roads, and also to the latest Environment Agency F

[Coast]

Anyone else tracking that very narrow but intense line of precip across S England at present?

Just about to pass right over my location. Then watch the larger line coming up in an hour or so!

[Guest North Sea Snow Convection]

I would not class this as hype at all . Let us see the results before you class this as hype . I would class myself as level headed . I have been a member of this site for six years . Inland wind speeds of 75mph are what make this system so very very different . Even TORRO have issued warnings of Tornadoes with the south coast being most at risk accompanied by 15mm Hail . Lets wait to see what the next 24 hours bring . It is better to be forewarned of these events which are incredibly dangerous than to assume they are " hyped up " . It is easy enough to criticise the met office when they dont warn . When they do you complain it is hype . So who is level headed here the people being cautious or those laughing off the warnings as hype? Daytime inland wind gusts of 75mph are likely to kill several people before tomorrow evening .

I'm certainly not laughing off the warnings I can assure you. I agree about the need for warnings. But I do also think that these days there is so much reporting and analysing with the media getting involved that make it appear that the sort of weather we are about to get is almost unprecedented in the UK. That is what I mean by hype. And if people are worried about the upcoming weather then this sort of thing doesn't help.

The is a difference between (rightful) caution and alarmism.

Whilst I am hoping for this to pass and be out of the way without undue problems - I hope that the rest of you enjoy watching this over the next 24 hrs. Watching is fine but getting stuck in a tornado or damaging winds and/or large hail isn't so funny.

My views on 'severe' weather have changed rather a lot in recent years after being too close to an event for comfort. Home is not the very place to enjoy witnessing it!

Edited November 13, 2009 by North Sea Snow Convection

[Just Before Dawn]

I'm certainly not laughing off the warnings I can assure you. I agree about the need for warnings. But I do also think that these days there is so much reporting and analysing with the media getting involved that make it appear that the sort of weather we are about to get is almost unprecedented in the UK. That is what I mean by hype. And if people are worried about the upcoming weather then this sort of thing doesn't help.

The is a difference between (rightful) caution and alarmism.

Whilst I am hoping for this to pass and be out of the way without undue problems - I hope that the rest of you enjoy watching this over the next 24 hrs. Watching is fine but getting stuck in a tornado or damaging winds and/or large hail isn't so funny.

My views on 'severe' weather have changed rather a lot in recent years after being too close to an event for comfort. Home is not the very place to enjoy witnessing it!

I think that's fair, though I also think that the description of this as (potentially, depending on track, depth of pressure and wind speed) a 'one in two or three year event' is similarly reasonable. It's a deep low pressure system affecting southern England with the worst winds likely during daylight hours and potentially violent enough to cause local damage, and they don't come along every year. As you say, the warnings are worthwhile. Nevertheless, I suspect people wanting to see vast swaithes of destruction up close are better off (and safer) going to see 2012!

[Coast]

It's The Sun wot dunit!!!

THE worst storm of the year so far is expected to batter the UK this weekend, forecasters have warned.

Gale-force gusts of up to 70mph and heavy rain will hit the south-west before moving north-east tomorrow.

The winds are expected to bring down trees and damage homes. There could be a lull on Sunday, before more stormy weather returns on Monday. Forecasters have advised people to stay indoors over the weekend if possible.

Weather expert Stephen Davenport, of Meteogroup UK, said: "It is pretty filthy weather already and it is only going to get worse on Saturday. "The real meat of the storm is coming overnight. There will be a gradual build-up, with the peak of the winds being felt in the south-west in the early hours before the storm shifts north-eastwards. "This is the strongest storm we have had this year, but it is just an autumnal storm, not untypical for this time of year."

Met Office chief forecaster Bob Wilderspin also predicted "severe" weather this weekend. The Environment Agency added there is a risk of flooding in certain areas. A spokesman said: "We are likely to issue flood watches and flood warnings on Friday and Saturday, particularly across south Wales and the south-west of England." The wild weather has already caused some trains to be disrupted.

Services between Newport and Gloucester, and cross-country trains between Nottingham and Cardiff were affected, after rocks fell on to the tracks. More than a ton of rubble is believed to have fallen in the Chepstow area of south-east Wales. A spokesman for Network Rail said "adverse weather conditions" were responsible for the rock fall and normal services were unlikely to resume until 3pm today at the earliest.

Rail passengers are advised to check with National Rail Enquiries or the train operator before they travel.

www.thesun.co.uk

[doublebarrel]

It's The Sun wot dunit!!!

www.thesun.co.uk

Must be true then !!

[wallopweather]

quoting one small extract of the above Sun article posted by Coast:

Forecasters have advised people to stay indoors over the weekend if possible.

It's that kind of comment which annoys me. I've lived long enough to see Autumn storms like this in the UK time and time again. Yes there will be some problems and there will be a tree or two down if the winds reach the speeds forecast, all of which make for great pictures in the news, but when you run a small High St shop like I do and you're fighting the credit crunch, rises in rates and rents and increased bank charges, the last thing small businesses want to see is forecasters telling everyone to stay at home on the first really busy Christmas shopping weekend of the year.

Alternatively you can shop with us online

[Nick B]

Hmm. Now I really am expecting a fairly bumpy landing at Heathrow tomorrow. Coming in about 3.30pm if on time!

[Marcus_surfer]

First batch of heavier rain passing through here now, chucking it down, and winds increasing. It's not even 3PM yet and getting dark quick already

[weather2]

Minack webcam shows the sea quite rough already www.minack.com

[Mumbles]

I'm in Dorset and at the moment its very gloomy outside with winds picking up a fair bit in the last 10 mins....has been raining on and off since about 10am this morning but nothing much..

Anyone know how bad its gonna get or is the media hyping things up too much again...?!

Take care all x

[SizzlingHeat]

I'm in Dorset and at the moment its very gloomy outside with winds picking up a fair bit in the last 10 mins....has been raining on and off since about 10am this morning but nothing much..

Anyone know how bad its gonna get or is the media hyping things up too much again...?!

Take care all x

im in poole, getting windy here aswell. potentially 70-75mph gusts between 6am and 9am tomorrow morning i expect!

[doublebarrel]

according to the meto warning page for tomorrow the east mids has no warning so it all has changed !! ( issued at 1407 today )

[dogs32]

high winds effecting The Severn Bridge at present with speed restrictions in force.

With the possability of closing down the crossing later if things get worse